Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that economic policy uncertainty has decreased from its peak levels, as highlighted in the G7 draft [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the reduction in economic policy uncertainty may lead to improved investment conditions and business confidence [1] - It emphasizes the importance of stable economic policies for fostering growth and attracting investments [1]

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding economic policy is exceptionally high according to the Federal Reserve's Musalem [1] - Even after the trade situation eased on May 12, tariffs may still lead to a weakening labor market and rising prices in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's current stance under Powell, characterized as "duck-like," indicating a lack of decisive action while trying to appease both the market and the White House amidst rising economic uncertainties [1][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Position - Powell's approach reflects a compromise between being overly aggressive and overly passive, indicating that the Fed is not clear on the economic situation, leading to a lack of coherent monetary policy [1][10]. - The March FOMC meeting showed a degree of independence, with the Fed not overly concerned about soft data and emphasizing the importance of addressing inflation [3][10]. Market Reactions and Economic Policies - The Fed's unexpected slowdown in balance sheet reduction and its temporary judgment on tariff impacts suggest a commitment to a "Fed Put," although this commitment is not strong due to political constraints [4][5][10]. - Powell's reluctance to directly address the negative impacts of Trump's policies indicates a cautious approach, with the Fed needing to see greater chaos to justify more aggressive actions [5][11]. Economic Uncertainty - The article highlights that the current policy mix serves as a short-term reassurance for the market and a friendly response to Trump, with tariffs viewed as a one-time shock that does not require significant monetary policy adjustments [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding economic policies is expected to increase, with the Fed likely to lag in its responses to economic data, which may force it to act more decisively in future meetings [11].