Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3900-point mark, with a surge in precious metals and gold stocks, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The recent gold price rally is attributed to the international gold price breaking historical levels, expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and continuous gold purchases by the domestic central bank [1] - During the National Day holiday, gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold briefly exceeding $4060 per ounce, resulting in a cumulative increase of 4.45% during the holiday [1] Group 2 - The performance of individual stocks is supported by corporate earnings and resource control, with Western Gold achieving a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% [2] - Western Gold has completed 60% of its annual mining target by mid-year and acquired 100% of Xinjiang Meisheng, expected to start production in the second half of 2025, with a production capacity of 4000 tons per day [2] - Sichuan Gold also reported strong performance, with a revenue of 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.92%, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 48.41% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently in an upward trend, with low crowding levels indicated by volatility and other indicators, and overall stable price movements. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday, external market volatility may increase, and investors are advised to control their positions [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core positive driving force for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment have cleared the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed Watch shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairperson, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to be substantially strengthened, and there is room for imagination regarding future interest rate cuts. The increased risk to the Fed's independence also reinforces the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit, providing greater flexibility for the gold price. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at $4000 [3][6]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant downward trend, and the soft - landing trade dominates the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to rise with gold and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US economic data in Q2 and recent weeks were stronger than expected. The annualized final value of real GDP in Q2 increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter (expected 3.3%, revised value 3.3%); the GDP price index in Q2 increased by 2.1% (expected 2%, revised value 2%); real personal consumption expenditure in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter (expected 1.7%, revised value 1.6%) [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 218,000 (expected 235,000, previous value revised from 231,000 to 232,000); the four - week average was 237,500 (previous value 240,000). The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 1,926,000 (expected 1,935,000, previous value 1,920,000) [2]. - The preliminary value of durable goods orders in the US in August increased by 2.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.5%, July's final value revised from - 2.8% to - 2.7%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding national defense increased by 1.9% month - on - month (July's final value revised from - 2.5% to - 2.3%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected flat, July's final value - 2.5%) [2]. - Fed's new governor Milan publicly advocated that the Fed should immediately take more aggressive interest - rate cut measures to avoid harming the US economy. He warned that the current policy interest rate of the Fed is far higher than his estimated "neutral" level and is in a "highly restrictive" range, making the economy more vulnerable to downward shocks. The Fed "can achieve the goal through a very short - term series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts" [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, precious metal prices adjusted slightly. The better - than - expected US economic data led to a short - term strong rebound in the US dollar index, causing precious metals to decline slightly under pressure. The current upward trend of precious metals remains intact [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive factor for gold. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations will drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson and the potential weakening of the Fed's independence will provide greater flexibility for the gold price, maintaining the target of $4000 for US - dollar - denominated gold this year [3][6]. - Silver follows the trend of gold. With the US economy showing a soft - landing trend, the suppression of silver's elasticity has eased, and silver prices are expected to rise with gold [6]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2249.48, up 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2524.42, up 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2269.30, up 1.07% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 25, 2025, was 2995.52, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day increase of 3.33%, a 1 - month increase of 9.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.40% [48].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1100 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase in both international and domestic gold prices, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the fourth quarter [1][2][12]. Price Trends - As of September 24, 2023, the price of pure gold jewelry from the brand Chow Sang Sang reached 1105 yuan per gram, while another brand, Chow Tai Fook, reported prices close to 1100 yuan at 1098 yuan per gram [3][5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract price hit a historical high of 856.80 yuan per gram on September 24, marking a nearly 10% increase since September and a cumulative rise of nearly 40% for the year [8]. Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment following the release of poor U.S. non-farm payroll data on August 1, which led to a reassessment of interest rate expectations. The market is now anticipating a resumption of the rate-cutting cycle [10]. - Additional factors contributing to the price increase include President Trump's comments regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and potential changes in its leadership, which have heightened market volatility and increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices will continue into the fourth quarter, driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. The market has not fully priced in the anticipated rate cuts, suggesting further room for growth [12]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations that U.S. debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support higher gold prices [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Precious metals maintained a high - slope upward trend on Tuesday. Short - term positive factors include frequent hacker attacks on cryptocurrencies and the risk of the US government shutdown. In the upward trend dominated by the interest rate cut cycle, the macro - narrative of the monetary attribute amplifies price elasticity, and the market is not in a crowded stage, so precious metal prices may continue to rise with a high slope in the short term [1][3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive driver for gold. With mild inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut is unobstructed. The Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson is approaching, and Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the imagination of long - term interest rate cuts and strengthening the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit. The target price of US dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [3] - Silver trends follow gold. The US fundamentals have not shown a rapid decline, and soft - landing trading dominates the market. The suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly slowed down, and the silver price is expected to follow the upward trend of gold, challenging the historical high of around $50 in 2011 in the first and second quarters [3] - The weekly range of spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and that of spot London silver is [41, 47] [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Key Information - The US current account deficit in the second quarter was $251.3 billion, the lowest since the third quarter of 2023, better than the expected deficit of $256.3 billion, and the previous value was revised from a deficit of $450.2 billion to $439.8 billion [2] - Fed's new governor Milan proposed that the benchmark interest rate is much higher than the reasonable level and should be actively and significantly cut. He believes there is nearly a 2 - percentage - point space for interest rate cuts, but this view isolates him within the Fed [2] - The risk of the US government shutdown is approaching. Trump will meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House. Lawmakers emphasized the importance of dealing with rising costs, including the medical crisis caused by the Republicans [2] Price Index - On September 23, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2220.36, down 0.73%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2492.22, down 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2229.14, down 0.76% [43] - The precious metals index on September 23, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.82%, a 5 - day increase of 2.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.23% [45]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to persistent interest rate cut expectations, frequent cryptocurrency hacking incidents, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), rose by 1.19%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 1.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested a potential interest rate cut space of nearly 2 percentage points, although this view has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current interest rate cut expectations are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, increasing the potential for future rate cuts and raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which could further weaken the dollar's credibility and provide greater elasticity for gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to market expectations of interest rate cuts, frequent hacking incidents in the cryptocurrency sector, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850) and 黄金股ETF (159562), saw increases of 1.19% and 1.27% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested that there is nearly a 2 percentage point space for rate cuts, although this perspective has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current expectations for interest rate cuts are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, potentially increasing the likelihood of future rate cuts and contributing to a narrative of declining dollar credibility, which could further support gold prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-23 重点资讯： 1）美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免 政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月 底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党之间的僵局 而关门。 2）美国总统特朗普签署行政令，大幅改革H-1B签证项目，要求申请 人缴纳10万美元费用，否则不得入境。这一新规于美东时间9月21日 凌晨00:01生效。律师建议已经拿到H-1B签证的申请者在9月21日之前 回到美国，在美国境内的H-1B签证持有者近期尽量不要随便进出美 国。 特朗普宣布推出名为"特朗普金卡"的签证计划，向全球富人 出售美国居住权，个人申请者最高支付500万美元，可最长停留美国 270天，无需为美国境外收入纳税，企业可无限量为员工个人办理金 卡。特朗普表示，科技高管们会对金卡项目"非常满意"，因为这将 允许他们引入更多员工。美国商务部长卢特尼克预计，该签证计划将 为美国政府筹集超过1000亿美元。 3）特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤，商讨加沙停火。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属再度冲高，上周靴子落地 ...

Group 1 - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The rise in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and the overall increase in global financial asset prices, supported by China's resilient economic performance [1] - China's gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces at the end of August, up from 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, marking the tenth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The price of spot gold surged to $3,600 on September 5, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of $976, or 37% [1] - Zheshang Securities anticipates that the financial attributes of gold will support its price increase in the short term, while it may serve as a safe haven in the medium term if other metals show a downturn [1] - Caixin Securities highlights that the recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor and inflation data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with ongoing global economic pressures and geopolitical risks maintaining gold's appeal as a hedge [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge on September 5, with significant movements in related ETFs and stocks, indicating strong market interest in both precious metals and base metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the base metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.38%, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 6%, and other stocks like Tengyuan Cobalt, Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, and Shenghe Resources also showing gains [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.69%, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a modest rise of 0.26% [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The gold stock ETF (159562) experienced a net inflow of 220 million yuan over the past five days, while the base metals ETF (516650) had a net inflow of 240 million yuan over the last ten trading days [1] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) recorded a net inflow of 4.427 million yuan in the last three days [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - According to Zheshang Securities, in the short term, most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, and the financial attributes of gold are expected to support its price increase [1] - In the medium term, if market sentiment shifts, gold is seen as a good safe haven, especially if other metals show a reversal in trends, enhancing gold's hedging value [1] - In the long term, the decline in the credibility of the US dollar is viewed as the main narrative for the current bull market in gold, with potential further declines expected due to upcoming policies from the Trump administration [1]