Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the liquidity situation from June 16 - 20, 2025, indicating that the overall capital market shows a state of balanced and slightly loose funds, with some indicators showing upward or downward trends, and the market's expectation of the capital situation is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as the end - of - quarter credit impulse and government bond supply on the capital market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rates - Last week, the open - market maturity was 1040.2 billion yuan, including 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open - market investment was 960.3 billion yuan, all in reverse repurchase, with a net withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was balanced and slightly loose, with the average DR007 at 1.52%, up 0.5BP from the previous week, and the average R007 at 1.58%, up 1BP from the previous week. The average DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.44% respectively. The exchange repurchase rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.61%, up 4BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 960.3 billion yuan, up from the previous week [1]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) and IRS Yields - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 1021.64 billion yuan, the issuance was 1102.32 billion yuan, and the net financing scale was 80.68 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 1137.81 billion yuan, with a greater maturity pressure than the previous week. In terms of interest rate swaps, the average of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation of the capital situation is stable, and CDs are more affected by seasonal supply - demand pressure [2]. 3.3 Repurchase Volume and Institutional Behavior - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase was between 7.7 - 8.8 trillion yuan, with the average R001 repurchase volume at 7462.2 billion yuan, up 361.4 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of repurchase was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week. The repurchase leverage has returned to the high point of December last year. By institution, the lending scale of large banks increased, while that of money market funds decreased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management increased. As of Friday, the repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 5.30 trillion yuan and 1.94 trillion yuan, up 358.3 billion yuan and down 9.4 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The positive repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.86 trillion yuan, 2.47 trillion yuan, and 777.6 billion yuan respectively, up 21.7 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [3]. 3.4 Bill Rates and Exchange Rates - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.05%, up from the last trading day of the previous week. Near the end of the quarter, attention should be paid to the situation of credit impulse. Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.18, up slightly from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed. Last week, the Fed held its June FOMC meeting, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 - 4.5%, maintaining the interest rate unchanged for four consecutive times, while raising the inflation forecast and lowering the economic growth forecast, suggesting an increase in stagflation risk. Due to the Fed's caution, the approaching inflation pulse, and the Treasury's supply pressure, short - term US bond yields may remain high [4]. 3.5 This Week's Key Concerns - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 1060.3 billion yuan, including 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 100 billion yuan of treasury deposit maturity. On Friday, China's industrial enterprise profits for May will be announced, and attention should be paid to the enterprise profit repair situation. The eurozone's economic sentiment index for June will also be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the eurozone's economic trend. In addition, the US PCE for May will be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the inflation trend. This week, the 7 - day repurchase starts to cross the quarter, and the government bond supply scale is large. Attention should be paid to the impact on the capital situation [5].

Group 1: Exchange Rate Outlook - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain above 7.0 in the second half of 2025, unless there is a significant improvement in US-China relations or a notable increase in domestic economic recovery slope[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has shown a downward trend, fluctuating between 7.1 and 7.5 since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and trade relations[7] - A technical breach of 7.0 in the spot exchange rate may occur but is likely to be temporary, reflecting market microstructure adjustments rather than a fundamental policy shift[25] Group 2: Policy Anchors - The central bank's policy focus is on enhancing exchange rate flexibility while preventing excessive fluctuations, maintaining a balance between market forces and macroeconomic stability[17] - The central bank's management framework emphasizes a "managed floating exchange rate system," aiming to stabilize the RMB against a basket of currencies rather than solely against the USD[12] - The probability of the USD/CNY exchange rate falling below 7.0 is low due to structural constraints in domestic economic recovery and external geopolitical risks[25] Group 3: External Economic Environment - The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating a synchronized slowdown among major economies[29] - China's economic growth forecast has been revised down from 4.5% to 4.0%, reflecting a significant adjustment of 11.1% due to slower domestic demand recovery[29] - The weakening of global growth dynamics is expected to exert additional pressure on the RMB, limiting its ability to strengthen independently[34]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has recently seen a decline against the US dollar, with the exchange rate breaking the 7.1800 mark, indicating a downward trend in the value of the RMB [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The offshore RMB is currently quoted at 7.1799, reflecting a daily decrease of 0.26% [1] - The onshore RMB is reported at 7.1904, showing a daily decline of 0.24% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the US-China trade negotiations have significantly exceeded market expectations, which may lead to a slight weakening of the USD against the RMB [1] Group 1 - The trade talks between the US and China have shown more positive outcomes than anticipated by the market [1] - The potential impact of these negotiations could result in a minor depreciation of the US dollar relative to the Chinese yuan [1]

期货研究报告|外汇月报 2025-05-06 预期扰动增强，美元短暂偏弱 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 FICC 组 投资咨询号：Z0014617 联系人 朱思谋 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 美元短期偏弱，建议维持区间震荡思路，关注政策扰动与外部经济预期变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 美元兑人民币汇率在 4 月下旬至 5 月初整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，阶段高点出现在 7.35 附近，随后回落至 7.27 一线。离岸人民币在五一假期期间短线快速升值，受中美贸易预 期改善、美元指数回调以及市场风险偏好回暖等多因素影响。美元指数 4 月累计下跌约 4.5%，为近年来较大单月跌幅。期权隐含波动率先升后降，看涨期权隐波回落，人民币 汇率走势更趋双向波动。 4 月中国宏观数据环比走弱但整体好于预期，美国增长数据不及预期。中国制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0，显示制造业短期承压，但高技术制造业 PMI 维持在 51.5 的扩张区间，非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.4，服务业恢复动能延续。美国方面，4 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下 滑至 48.7，一季度 GDP 录得-0.3%，带动花旗经济意外指 ...