Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the liquidity and the central bank's monetary policy stance have become the focus of the market. The new narrative logic of liquidity in the first half of the year may also form the new normal in the second half, including the continuous transformation of the monetary policy framework, the continuous pressure on banks' net interest margins, and the need to balance multiple policy goals [1][3][9] - The policy side still focuses on smoothing the monetary policy transmission mechanism and promoting the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost in the second half of the year, and needs to balance "stable growth" and "risk prevention" [3][4][89] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The "Unexpected" and "Expected" of the Funding Situation in the First Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the funding situation changed from the long - term stable and abundant state in the second half of last year. The first quarter was tight, and the second quarter gradually switched to a stable and balanced state. The change was due to the dynamic switching of policy target priorities and the evolution of the monetary policy framework [11][12] - The first half of the year can be divided into four stages based on factors such as central bank's open - market operations, policy focus switching, and funding rate trends. Each stage has different characteristics in terms of funding rates, central bank's operations, and market supply - demand patterns [15] 2. Some New Narratives of Liquidity in 2025 2.1 Framework "Variation" - The monetary policy framework is further transforming to price - based regulation, clarifying the main policy interest rates and weakening the policy attributes of other prices. The MLF has faded out of its medium - term policy interest rate attribute [36] - The policy aims to smooth the interest rate transmission mechanism, strengthen the effect of deposit interest rate adjustment, and promote the decline of the real financing cost. It also conducts policy communication and expectation guidance with the market in a timely manner, and the structural tools are precisely targeted [34][37] 2.2 The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Monetary Policy - **Supportive Stance Remains Unchanged**: The monetary policy needs to balance multiple goals, and the central bank strengthens communication with the market to correct the market's over - trading expectations of monetary easing [39] - **"Inactions" in the First Quarter**: The central bank's investment was relatively restrained in the first quarter, focusing on preventing capital idling, interest rate risks, and stabilizing the exchange rate, which was also reflected in the statements of the monetary policy meetings [43][45] - **"Actions" and "Inactions" in the Second Quarter**: In the second half of March, the supply - demand pattern of the funding situation improved. The central bank increased its support, but still needed to balance "stable growth" and "risk prevention", which was also reflected in the statements of the monetary policy meetings [47][50] 2.3 Market "Echoes" - **Funding Rates are "Rigid" and Once Faced "Negative Carry"**: In the first quarter, the funding rates were at a high level with high volatility, and the bond market had a prominent "negative carry" phenomenon. The yield curve changed from "bear - flat" to "bear - steep", corresponding to the marginal changes in institutional behavior [53][54] - **Banks' Liability - Side Pressure is Concerned, and Funding Stratification is Weakened**: In the first quarter, the large - scale banks' fund lending decreased, and the liquidity supply - demand contradiction was magnified. In the second quarter, the banks' liability - side pressure was generally controllable, and the funding stratification was mainly seasonally high [69][77] - **The Bond Market Fluctuated More, and Banks Realized Floating Profits at the End of the Quarter**: In the first quarter, banks increased their bond - selling efforts at the end of the quarter to realize floating profits. In the second quarter, the pressure on banks to sell bonds to realize profits was alleviated [81][84] 3. Grasp the New Normal in the Second Half of the Year 3.1 Smooth the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism and Reduce Banks' Liability Costs - The policy side will continue to smooth the policy interest rate transmission mechanism, enhance financial institutions' independent pricing ability, and strengthen the linkage between asset - side and liability - side interest rate adjustments [89] - Attention should be paid to banks' interest margin pressure, and banks should be guided to maintain reasonable asset returns and liability costs through market - based methods [90] 3.2 Dynamic Balance between "Stable Growth" and "Risk Prevention" - **Coordination of Various Policy Tools**: In terms of quantitative tools, if there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period, with a range of 25 - 50BP. Otherwise, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases, MLF, or restart treasury bond trading operations. In terms of price - based tools, there may be a possibility of an interest rate cut within the year, with a range of 10 - 25BP, but the timing is uncertain [94][95] - **Outlook on Funding and Certificate of Deposit Prices**: It is expected that the high - volatility market in the first quarter will not reappear, and the funding rates may continue the state of low - volatility and rigidity in the second quarter. If the interest rate cut occurs in the second half of the year, it is expected to drive down the certificate of deposit rates; otherwise, they may remain volatile [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall liquidity was balanced, with an upward trend in capital interest rates, a downward trend in certificate of deposit (CD) rates, an upward trend in IRS yields, a downward trend in repurchase trading volume, an upward trend in bill rates, and a downward trend in the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Capital Supply and Demand - Last week, the open - market had 960.3 billion yuan in maturities (all reverse repurchase), and 2327.5 billion yuan in investments (2027.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in MLF), with a net investment of 1367.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding reverse repurchases increased compared to the previous week [1] - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [5] Interest Rates - Affected by the end - of - quarter factor, the average DR007 was 1.65%, up 13BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.82%, up 24BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively. The average GC007 was 1.92%, up 31BP from the previous week [1] - Last week, the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average was 1.54%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation for the liquidity is stable [2] - As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity of CDs is about 245.79 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [2] - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.15%, up from the previous week's last trading day [4] Repurchase Market - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase trading was between 6.6 and 8.5 trillion yuan, and the average volume of R001 repurchase trading was 6.5011 trillion yuan, down 961.1 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the balance of outstanding repurchases was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [3] - In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and wealth management increased, while that of funds decreased [3] Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.17, slightly down from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed [4] This Week's Key Points of Attention - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase [5] - On Monday and Tuesday, China's official and Caixin PMI for June will be announced respectively, and on Tuesday, the US ISM manufacturing index for June will be announced. On Thursday, the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change for June will be announced, and the minutes of the Eurozone's monetary policy meeting for June will also be announced [5] - This week, the net maturity of interest - bearing bonds is 6.34 billion yuan [5]

研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 马闻倬 S0350124070011 | | | | mawz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 资金还能更宽松吗？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 | 《固定收益点评：债市还有哪些隐忧？*靳毅》— | | --- | | —2025-06-08 | | 《固定收益点评：存单利率还会上行吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-26 | | 《固定收益点评：出口，会扰动债市吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-12 | | 《固定收益点评：震荡行情中，何处破局？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-05 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 固定收益点评 《固定收益点评：5 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-04-27 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 从基本面维度看，地产表现、信贷需求仍然存在一定下行压力，资 金面没有收紧的基础。地产方面，30 大中城市商 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that "black swan" events accelerate existing market trends rather than reversing them, leading to eventual corrections and a return to the original trend [1] - The current financial environment is characterized by a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with a slight increase in long-term bond yields [1][2] - The central bank conducted a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan after 157 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] Group 2 - The interbank funding rates show a slight decline, with DR001 dropping to approximately 1.41% and DR007 around 1.61% [1] - The bond market is experiencing cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.70% and increasing to approximately 1.705% by the end of the day [3] - The average yield of long-term pure bond funds this year is only 0.5%, significantly lower than last year's 5.2% [4] Group 3 - The number of high school graduates in China for 2025 is projected to be 13.35 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year, marking the first decline since 2017 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The time point for the certificate of deposit (CD) interest rate to return to a downward trend may be earlier than market expectations. Despite the existence of factors such as increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts, and the end - of - June factor that cause marginal tightening pressure on the capital market, the market has made preparations. The outflow of bank deposits due to rate cuts may increase the demand for CD allocation, and the CD issuance rhythm and bank behavior also support the earlier return of CD rates to a downward trend. If so, it will also bring a repair opportunity for the bond market interest rate to decline steeply [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market concerns about the upward risk of CD interest rates have resurfaced, mainly due to increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts increasing bank liability pressure, and the end - of - June factor. However, the market has prepared, and the CD interest rate may return to a downward trend earlier than expected [4][7]. - Deposit rate cuts may lead to bank deposit outflows, but the funds are likely to enter fixed - income asset management products, increasing CD allocation demand and potentially pushing CD rates down [4][7]. - From the perspective of CD issuance rhythm, if banks expect tight funds at the beginning of the year and increase CD financing, the CD rate may decline earlier when facing the end - of - June factor [4][8]. - Bank behavior shows that the slowdown in the expansion pressure of inter - bank liabilities relative to assets helps stabilize CD rates [4][8]. 2 Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for May, the US will release the core PCE for April, and the eurozone will release the industrial sentiment index for May [17][18]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Scale Estimation - This week, it is expected to issue 328.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, 39 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 228.2 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - based financial bonds is expected to be around 100 billion yuan [18]. 3 Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank's reverse repurchase volume increased, with a total injection of 946 billion yuan, and the MLF roll - over was 500 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan in the open market after considering maturities. The capital market interest rate fluctuated more, with the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase falling, and the overnight proportion averaging around 87%. The capital interest rate declined but still had large intraday fluctuations [23][24]. - The CD issuance scale rebounded, and the interest rate increased. From May 19th to May 25th, the issuance scale was 714.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 738.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24 billion yuan. The issuance and interest rates of different types of banks and different maturities also changed [30][31]. 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Rise After Exhausting Positive Factors - Last week, long - term interest rates mainly rose, while medium - and short - term interest rates continued to decline slightly. Factors included large intraday fluctuations in capital interest rates, strong profit - taking sentiment after the dual cuts, and a significant increase in the issuance price of ultra - long - term primary treasury bonds. On May 23rd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.2bp, - 0.9bp, - 1.0bp, - 1.6bp, and 3.3bp respectively compared to the previous week [40]. 4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates declined, such as the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt operating rate, while the PTA operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel production in early May decreased year - on - year [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained positive, land trading volume increased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 7.2% and 0.2% respectively [49]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, coal prices diverged, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the middle reaches also declined. Vegetable and fruit prices in the downstream consumption sector declined slightly, while pork prices remained flat [50].