Focus - The Cross-Border Payment System officially launched on June 22, enabling real-time cross-border remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong, with the first transaction occurring in Shenzhen [3]. Major Events - The Lujiazui Forum opened on June 18, focusing on "Financial Opening and Cooperation in the Global Economic Landscape," featuring key speeches from financial leaders including Pan Gongsheng and Li Yunzhe, who announced a series of important financial policies [4][5]. Major Policies - The Shanghai Stock Exchange implemented new regulations requiring brokers to process investor requests for revoking designated trading on the same day, aiming to enhance customer service and reduce barriers for investors switching brokers [6][7]. Economic Data - In the first five months of the year, China's general public budget expenditure reached 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while revenue slightly declined by 0.3% to 96,623 billion yuan [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential benefits and risks associated with the development of USD stablecoins, particularly their role in enhancing transaction efficiency and potentially promoting dollarization, which could have significant economic implications [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: USD Stablecoins - USD stablecoins are expected to improve transaction and remittance efficiency, as well as stimulate purchases of other assets, including digital and crypto assets [3][4]. - The emergence of USD stablecoins may further drive the phenomenon of dollarization, which is already observed in Central America and some transitioning economies [3][4]. - The article warns that dollarization can have various adverse effects on economies, and it is crucial to assess its implications for countries not currently facing high inflation or debt issues [4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Coordination - The current global economic environment shows insufficient growth momentum, necessitating countries to consider global financial stability while pursuing their monetary policy goals [7]. - There is a need for enhanced communication and research among monetary authorities to achieve greater international consensus on monetary policy coordination [7][8]. - The article highlights the lack of established rules for global monetary policy coordination, with no dedicated institution, tools, or consensus currently in place [8].

Core Viewpoint - The potential rise of dollarization due to the adoption of dollar stablecoins poses a significant concern that requires attention [1] Group 1: Implications of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar stablecoins are primarily intended to enhance the efficiency of transactions and remittances [1] - They may also stimulate the purchase of other assets, potentially leading to increased dollarization in various regions [1] Group 2: Current Dollarization Trends - Dollarization is already observed in Central America and some transitioning economies to varying degrees [1] - The impact of dollarization on economies, particularly those not experiencing high inflation or debt, raises questions about its suitability [1] Group 3: Considerations for Stablecoins - Discussions surrounding stablecoins must take into account the advantages and disadvantages of dollarization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of various dollar stablecoins and the consideration of local currency stablecoins by other regions highlight the evolving landscape of digital currencies, with dollar stablecoins likely to have a more significant global impact due to the robust support of the dollar system [1][2]. Group 1 - The primary functions of dollar stablecoins are to enhance the efficiency of transactions and remittances, and to stimulate the purchase of other assets, including digital and crypto assets [1]. - There is a cautionary note regarding the potential for dollarization, which has been observed in Central America and some transitioning economies, raising concerns about its economic implications [1][2]. Group 2 - It is essential to maintain vigilance when considering the future role of stablecoins, particularly in relation to the issue of dollarization and its potential effects on different countries' economies [2]. - The suitability of dollarization for countries not currently facing high inflation or debt crises should be critically examined, as it may not always be the best option and could lead to various problems [2].

如何应对不确定性与货币体系变革？ 当前，全球经济面临高度不确定性。国际货币基金组织（IMF）4月预测显示，2025年全球经济增长可能由2024年的3.3%放缓至2.8%。若全球贸易转向更高 关税框架，IMF进一步预测2025年增长率或仅为1.7%，增幅显著承压。与此同时，全球高债务状况亦遭受严重冲击。在此背景下，通胀风险已成为普遍关 切。 （摄影：吴军） 无机构、无工具、无共识 当前全球货币政策格局呈现显著分化与多重失衡。新兴市场面临资本流动加速、货币贬值和贸易不确定性等多重压力，而发达经济体则需在抑制通胀、支持 增长和防范债务风险间寻求平衡。在此背景下，货币政策目标多元化，各国政策分歧加剧。 在十二届全国政协副主席、中国人民银行原行长周小川看来，当前全球宏观经济调控似乎陷入了"三无"困境，即无机构、无工具、无共识：首先，缺乏一个 明确的全球性机构来统筹负责这一重要事务。其次，调控手段也相对匮乏，虽然有特别提款权（SDR）这一工具，但它更多被视为一种记账单位，实际应用 范围和影响力有限。最后，国际社会在宏观调控方面尚未达成广泛共识。 "加强全球货币政策协调面临巨大挑战。"新加坡金融管理局副行长梁新松强调，各国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future development of stablecoins must consider the pros and cons of dollarization, as highlighted by Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People's Bank of China, during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoins and Dollarization - The emergence of various dollar stablecoins in the market indicates a trend, while other regions are also considering developing local currency-based stablecoins [1]. - Dollar stablecoins are likely to have a more significant global impact due to the strong support of the dollar system behind them [1]. - The primary functions of dollar stablecoins may include improving transaction and remittance efficiency and stimulating purchases of other assets, including digital and crypto assets [1]. - However, there is a cautionary note regarding the potential for dollarization to increase, particularly in Central America and some transitioning economies, where varying degrees of dollarization already exist [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Dollarization - Dollarization is a contentious topic, as it may lead to various adverse effects on economies [1]. - It is essential to study the potential impacts of dollarization on different countries, especially those not currently facing high inflation or debt crises, to determine if dollarization is suitable for them [2]. - In many cases, dollarization may not be the best choice and could introduce numerous problems [2].

Group 1 - The discussion at the Lujiazui Forum highlighted concerns over the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the global economy and the potential decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency [1][2] - Giovanni TRIA emphasized that the US dollar's status provides the US with significant advantages, allowing it to finance its debts without limits, but the current tariff strategies may weaken confidence in the dollar and US bonds [1][2] - The need for a diversified global currency system was stressed, with the possibility of multiple currencies playing major roles and the issuance of a global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) being considered [2][3] Group 2 - The role of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, was a focal point, with discussions on their potential global impact and the challenges of other currencies achieving similar status [2][3] - Concerns were raised about the implications of dollarization in various economies, with the need for careful consideration of its effects on national economies [3] - The Singapore Monetary Authority highlighted the importance of innovation in digital currencies to enhance financial system efficiency and facilitate cross-border transactions, suggesting that stablecoins may not necessarily lead to dollarization [3]

中国人民银行原行长周小川在2025陆家嘴论坛上表示，现在谈得比较多的稳定币是美元稳定币。尽管有 其他地方想发行本币稳定币，但其在全球所能起到的作用还"很难说"，美元稳定币则有可能产生全球性 影响。周小川认为，美元稳定币可能辅助美元化。美元化对经济的影响备受争议。除非面对高通胀、高 债务等万不得已的情况，美元化可能带来的副作用很多。他提示，在谈及稳定币未来可能起到的作用 时，需要脑中"有一根弦"，思考要不要搞美元化以及美元化对具体国家的经济影响。(上证报) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy business has seen revenues nearly double over the last three years, with a year-over-year volume increase of 18% [3][4]. - The company has experienced a healthy double-digit growth despite a perceived slowdown since May [4]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy market is undergoing significant changes due to trade policies and energy transition discussions, impacting risk management and trading volumes [5][6]. - The mortgage business has seen a decline in new loan volumes due to high interest rates, but the total addressable market (TAM) is believed to have grown due to acquisitions like Black Knight [34][35]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adapted to changes in the energy ecosystem, including shifts in LNG trade routes and OPEC+ volatility, which could impact long-term business [17][19]. - The bond business grew by 30%, indicating a strong performance compared to peers, which remained flat [66]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building a network for mortgage services, emphasizing the importance of connectivity among market participants rather than just software solutions [46][50]. - The company aims to leverage its existing infrastructure to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the mortgage process, potentially leading to increased pricing power [51]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the energy business's resilience despite geopolitical uncertainties, noting that the risk management framework can accommodate various outcomes [10][28]. - There is a positive outlook for the data business, with increased demand and engagement from clients, indicating a shift from previous hesitance [78][80]. Other Important Information - The company is training internal successors for leadership roles, aiming for continuity in management and strategic direction [86][88]. - The company has initiated share buybacks as part of its capital allocation strategy, indicating confidence in its valuation and future growth prospects [75]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Is retail trading a priority for ICE? - Management indicated that while there was initial concern about retail trading competition, the company has shifted focus to empowering its B2B clients through technology [58][60]. Question: Is ICE still ambitious about the analog to digital conversion in fixed income trading? - Management acknowledged being late to the conversion but noted that the bond business has grown significantly due to the development of a high-value ecosystem [63][66]. Question: What is the pipeline for new mortgage deals with large banks? - There is ongoing competition between non-bank and traditional banks, with discussions about potential regulatory changes that could benefit large banks and increase their investment in digital platforms [71][72].

全球资产配置：高波动下的范式变更 文/ 国新国际投资有限公司原 首席投资官 黄国波 高度不确定性是当今世界经济金融形势的主题。近年来，中美博弈、新冠疫情、俄乌冲突等事件不 断加深这一不确定性。进入2025年，特朗普2.0时代关税政策的重启与反复、地缘政治风险的恶化叠 加各国宏观经济波动性的加剧，同时影响着全球各大类资产的收益及风险特征。 在过去数十年里，全球化和"美国例外论"给美元、美股、美债创造了奇迹。而本轮由美国特朗普政 府重启的关税政策，不仅导致美国信用尽失，也可能带来全球化的逆转和"美国例外论"的崩溃。受 此影响，美国股市的全球吸金能力，正遭遇美国去全球化的逆风。与此同时，全球经济和货币体系 遭受美国无理关税的冲击后，正在以区域化和去美元化反噬美国。而美国的潜在危机正在被美国政 府自身的霸凌行径和无理高关税激发。在这种大趋势下，全球过去几十年来形成的在资产配置中高 配美国的格局，未来必然会形成逐步去美国化、美元化的趋势。作为全球资产配置的一个重要金融 产品——美债，其自身所面临的风险正逐步加大。 数据显示，截至2025年4月，美国联邦债务总额约为36万亿美元，占全球GDP的约35%，美国人均 负债超1 ...