作者｜马琼 编辑｜曹晟源 本文首发于钛媒体APP 2025年9月下旬，全球稳定币市场呈现出一幅冷暖交织的鲜明图景。 一边是监管的"急刹车"：据财新9月23日消息，中资机构在港的加密资产业务近期被明确要求收缩，包 括投资、交易、发行RWA、稳定币等。降温之下暗流涌动，社交媒体日前流传全球首个与离岸人民币 挂钩的稳定币已在港发行，不过消息被官方迅速辟谣。 另一边却是国际市场的"狂热竞速"：9月24日，全球最大稳定币发行方Tether被曝正寻求以5000亿美元估 值融资，这一体量足以比肩OpenAI和SpaceX等科技巨头。而欧洲九大银行财团日前官宣将开发欧元稳 定币，以寻求美元替代方案。 这种看似割裂的市场生态，实则是"蒙代尔不可能三角"在数字时代的赤裸演绎——当资本自由流动、汇 率稳定与货币主权的平衡被打破，各国的战略选择必然分化，由此也揭开当前全球金融竞争的核心命 题。 当美国加速将稳定币打造为"链上美元"，以巩固货币霸权并企图让全球用户为美债接盘时，世界多国已 清晰感受到本国货币主权被挤压的现实挑战。中国则明确路径，以香港为"合规试验田"探索发展边界， 同时坚定推进数字人民币国际化进程。一场围绕数字时代货币 ...

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banking consortium's plans for a euro stablecoin [2][3] - The emergence of stablecoins reflects a broader narrative of capital flow expansion and the restructuring of financial power in the digital age, posing systemic risks despite their intended stability [4][6] Regulatory Developments - China is using Hong Kong as a testing ground for compliant stablecoin development while pushing for the internationalization of the digital yuan, indicating a strategic response to perceived threats to national currency sovereignty [3][17] - The U.S. has accelerated stablecoin legislation through the GENIUS Act, aiming to solidify the dollar's dominance and create a mechanism for global users to indirectly purchase U.S. debt [13][14] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with total market capitalization increasing from $5 billion in 2019 to approximately $300 billion in 2023, highlighting a 45-fold increase over six years [7][11] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, accounting for over 90% of total stablecoin market capitalization, with USDT being the most widely used [11][12] Risk Factors - Concerns about the transparency and backing of stablecoins, particularly Tether, have been raised, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements regarding their potential to facilitate illegal activities [6][7] - The lack of effective regulatory frameworks and the potential for market panic during liquidity crises pose significant risks to the stability of the stablecoin ecosystem [7][10] Future Outlook - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with new frameworks like Hong Kong's stringent stablecoin regulations and the EU's MiCA legislation indicating a shift towards compliance and oversight [9][10] - The competition for stablecoin dominance is likely to intensify, with emerging markets exploring alternatives to the dollar and the potential for a diversified international monetary system [15][18]

Core Insights - Moody's warns that the rise of stablecoin-driven cryptoization poses significant challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1] - The report highlights the risk of weakened monetary sovereignty as stablecoins, pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, proliferate, potentially undermining central banks' traditional control over interest and exchange rates [1] - A shift of personal bank deposits to stablecoins or crypto wallets could lead to deposit outflows from the banking system, affecting liquidity and potentially destabilizing the overall financial system [1] Summary by Category - **Market Trends** - In 2024, the number of global digital asset holders reached approximately 562 million, marking a 33% year-on-year increase [1] - Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are experiencing the fastest growth in digital asset adoption, driven by the need for cross-border remittances, mobile payment demands, and hedging against local currency inflation [1] - **Regulatory Concerns** - Moody's emphasizes the urgency of addressing regulatory gaps to prevent the cryptoization trend from exacerbating monetary and financial security risks in emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses increasing challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty - The adoption of stablecoins is weakening the control central banks have over interest rates and exchange rates, as these currencies are often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar [1][2]. - There is a risk of "deposit flight" from domestic banks to stablecoins or crypto wallets, which could affect bank liquidity and pose a potential threat to overall financial stability [1]. Group 2: Growth of Digital Assets - As of 2024, the number of global digital asset holders has reached approximately 562 million, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [1]. - The fastest growth in digital assets is observed in emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, driven by remittances, mobile payments, and inflation hedging needs [1]. Group 3: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Despite being perceived as relatively safe, the rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, including the risk of a bank run on reserves and potential costly government bailouts if they become unpegged [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Gaps and Imbalances - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with less than one-third of countries implementing comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4]. - The regulatory landscape is highly fragmented, and the differing growth patterns between developed and emerging markets highlight the potential for financial instability as regulatory measures lag behind [4].

Core Insights - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses significant challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2] - The report highlights that the increasing adoption of stablecoins, particularly those pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, undermines central banks' control over interest rates and exchange rates [1][2] Group 1: Risks to Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The core risk of "cryptoization" is its erosion of a country's monetary policy independence and the stability of its financial system [2] - When a significant portion of economic activity is conducted through stablecoins, central banks' ability to manage the economy via interest rate adjustments is weakened [2] - The potential dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins as a medium of exchange could directly impact the stability of local currencies' exchange rates [2] Group 2: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Moody's warns that stablecoins themselves carry systemic risks despite being perceived as relatively safe [3] - The rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, with insufficient regulation potentially leading to runs on reserves [3] - A de-pegging event could force governments to undertake costly rescue measures [3] Group 3: Imbalance in Growth and Regulatory Gaps - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with emerging markets facing heightened risks due to regulatory lag [4] - Currently, less than one-third of countries have implemented comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4] - The disparity in regulatory frameworks contrasts with the differing growth patterns, where developed markets focus on investment while emerging markets prioritize practical needs like cross-border remittances and inflation hedging [4] - This divergence highlights both the potential of digital assets in promoting financial inclusion and the accumulating risks of financial instability in the absence of adequate regulation [4]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, which threaten its control over monetary policy [1][2] - The global circulation of stablecoins has reached approximately $250 billion, with the majority pegged to the US dollar [1] - The ECB warns that widespread use of dollar stablecoins in the Eurozone could weaken its control over monetary conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Stablecoins are designed to bridge the gap between crypto assets and traditional financial systems, but their anonymity raises concerns about their use in illegal activities [2] - The ECB's warning reflects a growing global concern among central banks regarding the risks associated with stablecoins [2] - The support for stablecoins by the Trump administration may further solidify the dollar's dominance globally, leading to higher financing costs for Europe compared to the US [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins, with a total market value exceeding $250 billion, is rapidly integrating into the traditional financial system, prompting regulatory scrutiny and legislative actions globally [2]. Group 1: Definition and Role of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency built on blockchain technology, linked to the stability of sovereign currencies, distinguishing them from highly volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [3]. - Unlike Bitcoin, which is subject to extreme price fluctuations, stablecoins are designed to maintain a stable value through full reserve backing, making them suitable as a medium of exchange [3]. Group 2: Stability and Risks - The stability of stablecoins is contingent on the value of their underlying reserve assets; events like the Silicon Valley Bank crisis have exposed vulnerabilities, leading to concerns about "de-pegging" risks [4]. - The recent de-pegging of USDC during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis highlighted the transmission of traditional financial risks to the crypto market, raising alarms about the inherent stability of stablecoins [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The emergence of stablecoins has prompted significant regulatory focus, with jurisdictions like the EU and Hong Kong moving towards legislative frameworks to govern their use [5]. - Hong Kong's upcoming Stablecoin Regulation aims to establish a legal framework for stablecoin issuance, reflecting a broader trend of regulatory bodies responding to the growing scale of stablecoins [5][6]. Group 4: Impact on Traditional Financial Systems - Stablecoins are expected to enhance payment efficiency, particularly for cross-border transactions, potentially impacting traditional banking payment and settlement systems [7]. - While stablecoins may affect commercial banks, the overall growth of the financial market suggests that both stablecoins and traditional banking can coexist without threatening each other's survival [7]. Group 5: Central Bank Perspectives - The issuance of stablecoins, requiring full reserves, could positively influence central banks' monetary policies and fiscal challenges, although potential tax evasion through stablecoin transactions may prompt regulatory intervention [9]. Group 6: Differences Between Stablecoins and Digital Currencies - Stablecoins, issued by private entities and backed by sovereign currency reserves, differ fundamentally from central bank-issued digital currencies, which are direct representations of legal tender [10]. Group 7: Arbitrage Risks - The existence of stablecoins pegged to different fiat currencies introduces potential arbitrage opportunities due to exchange rate fluctuations, similar to risks present in traditional foreign exchange markets [11].

Core Insights - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies, serving as a bridge between traditional currencies and crypto assets [4][7] - The stablecoin market has rapidly expanded from $5 billion in 2019 to over $250 billion by mid-2025, with USDT and USDC dominating over 90% of the market share [4][10][13] - Stablecoins are reshaping the global payment ecosystem by providing efficient, low-cost alternatives to traditional payment systems, with major companies like Amazon and Walmart beginning to adopt them [16][19] Development History - Stablecoins emerged in 2014, with USDT being the first significant player, followed by USDC in 2018. The market grew rapidly due to the DeFi boom, reaching $200 billion by 2020 [9][10] - The market faced challenges in 2022 with the collapse of UST and the USDC crisis linked to the Silicon Valley Bank failure, leading to a temporary loss of confidence [10][11] - By mid-2025, stablecoins are projected to exceed $250 billion, accounting for approximately 8% of the entire crypto asset market [4][10] Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are increasingly being used in the real economy, challenging traditional payment systems and enhancing transaction efficiency [16][19] - They simplify payment processes by eliminating intermediaries, reducing transaction costs to nearly zero, and enabling near-instant settlements [17][18] - Major retailers are exploring the adoption of stablecoins to reduce costs associated with credit card transactions, potentially saving billions annually [19][20] Regulation - As stablecoins have grown in significance, various economies are implementing regulatory frameworks to address risks associated with them, focusing on anti-money laundering, reserve assets, and transparency [21][22] - The U.S. aims to reinforce the dollar's dominance through regulations that require stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in U.S. dollars and Treasury securities [21] - Hong Kong is positioning stablecoins as payment tools to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, while the EU is taking a more conservative approach by restricting non-euro stablecoins [22] Impact - Stablecoins are transforming the financial landscape, posing challenges to traditional banking and monetary policy by potentially undermining central banks' control over currency supply [23][24] - They may increase demand for U.S. Treasury securities, further entrenching the dollar's global dominance, with projections indicating significant future demand [25][26] - The rise of stablecoins could lead to a reconfiguration of the international monetary system, providing opportunities for currencies like the yuan to gain traction [26] Future Outlook - The stablecoin market is expected to continue its rapid growth, with projections suggesting a market value of $3.5 to $4 trillion by the end of 2029 [27] - As regulatory frameworks develop, the range of applications for stablecoins is likely to expand, encompassing international trade and supply chain finance [27][28] - The competitive landscape remains uncertain, with traditional financial institutions likely to enter the stablecoin space, potentially altering the current market dynamics [28]

Group 1 - The establishment of the People's Bank of China in 1948 aimed to unify the chaotic currency system in the country, which included various forms of currency and barter trade [3][5] - The first set of Renminbi was designed to symbolize the restoration of production and rebuilding of the nation, featuring images of trains, factories, and agricultural laborers [5][19] - The excessive printing of the first Renminbi led to severe inflation, undermining its credibility and failing to achieve its historical mission [5][7] Group 2 - The need for a new currency arose due to the inadequacies of the first Renminbi, which lacked durability and anti-counterfeiting measures, prompting a request for a new version [7][9] - The Soviet Union provided crucial support in the form of high-quality banknote paper and assistance in building printing facilities during the 1950s [9][11] - The second set of Renminbi faced challenges due to the deteriorating Sino-Soviet relations, leading to a push for self-sufficiency in currency production [11][14] Group 3 - The third set of Renminbi was developed as part of a strategic move towards independence in currency production, with preparations starting as early as 1955 [11][14] - Chinese experts successfully created their own printing machines, marking a significant step towards self-reliance in currency production [14][16] - The security measures surrounding the printing facilities are extremely stringent, reflecting the importance of currency sovereignty [16][17] Group 4 - China began printing currency for other countries as early as the 20th century, with notable contracts in the 21st century, showcasing its capabilities in international currency production [19][22] - The transition from "China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation" to "China Banknote Printing and Minting Group Co., Ltd." signifies a major evolution in the company's scale and global engagement [24][26] - This transformation reflects the company's journey from a domestic supplier to a key player in the global currency market, enhancing its reputation and trustworthiness [24][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that stablecoins are gaining significant attention both domestically and internationally, with the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act to establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, while Hong Kong has enacted its own stablecoin regulations [1][2] - Stablecoins have seen rapid growth, with their total market size reaching $247.7 billion by June 2025, a 190-fold increase from $1.3 billion in June 2019, with 99% of stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar [2][3] - The main function of stablecoins is to tokenize existing money within the banking system, allowing for a new method of currency circulation without creating new money [3][4] Group 2 - Stablecoins differ from non-bank payment systems in that they are based on distributed ledgers, allowing for open and anonymous transactions, while non-bank systems use centralized ledgers and require real-name registration [4][5] - A significant portion of U.S. dollar stablecoins (over 70%) is issued offshore, which raises concerns regarding regulatory compliance, particularly in areas like KYC and AML [4][5] - The trading volume of U.S. dollar stablecoins reached $100.7 billion by June 2025, surpassing the combined trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum, primarily serving as a medium for transactions in the cryptocurrency market [7][8] Group 3 - U.S. dollar stablecoins are rapidly penetrating various applications beyond cryptocurrency trading, including cross-border payments and corporate financing, driven by their efficiency and low costs [8][9] - The U.S. strategy regarding stablecoins involves a regulatory approach that allows commercial entities to promote the digitalization of the dollar while maintaining oversight as the market matures [8][9] - The relationship between U.S. dollar stablecoins and traditional payment systems like SWIFT and Visa is fundamentally different, with stablecoins not intended to replace these systems [9][10] Group 4 - There is a growing concern regarding the use of U.S. dollar stablecoins by residents and businesses in mainland China, necessitating monitoring and regulatory measures to protect monetary sovereignty [10][11] - The potential for issuing offshore renminbi stablecoins is discussed, which could be managed by Chinese financial institutions to mitigate risks associated with capital outflow [11][12] - The technology underlying stablecoins presents both opportunities for financial inclusion and challenges related to compliance with existing financial regulations [10][11]