Core Viewpoint - International silver prices surged from $38/oz to a historic high of $54.47/oz between late August and mid-October 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as safe-haven demand, allocation demand, and U.S. policy easing, alongside a fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the global silver market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand imbalance has shifted in the last four years, with supply deficits recorded in 2021 (1591 tons) and 2022 (7393 tons), and a narrowed deficit in 2023 (4400 tons), expected to widen again in 2024 (5000 tons) and 2025 (4500 tons) [2] - The structural supply-demand imbalance is attributed to increased investment and industrial demand for silver, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure from major silver mining companies, limiting long-term supply growth [2] - The London silver market experienced significant shortages, with only 24,600 tons remaining in the vaults by the end of September, and 83% of this locked in silver ETFs, leading to soaring leasing rates [4] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies and the inclusion of silver in the critical minerals list have exacerbated shortages in non-U.S. silver markets, as countries rush to export silver to the U.S. to avoid impending tariffs [3] - The proposal to add silver to the critical minerals list aims to reduce import dependency, further tightening global silver supply [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - A recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, as investors shift towards riskier assets like stocks and oil, contributing to a price correction from recent highs [5] - Despite short-term price adjustments, long-term bullish factors remain, including potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support silver prices [6][7] - The ongoing structural supply-demand tightness suggests that while silver prices may experience short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could result in the return of $90 billion in tariffs already collected and a significant reduction in future tariff revenue [1][9] - Tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach $195 billion, more than tripling previous amounts, with monthly collections increasing from $7 billion in January to $30 billion by September [3][5] - The Trump administration utilized the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose a 10% global tariff on all imports, with higher tariffs on specific countries and goods, claiming it would benefit U.S. manufacturing without relying on income tax [5][11] Group 2 - While tariffs have temporarily boosted government revenue and protected certain industries, high tariffs can disrupt normal trade and lead to a lack of innovation and cost control within domestic industries [7][16] - The U.S. Trade Court has ruled that most new tariffs imposed under the current law are illegal, with the federal appeals court supporting this decision, awaiting the Supreme Court's final ruling [9][11] - The tariffs have led to global trade instability, prompting other economies to pursue bilateral trade agreements, which may weaken the U.S.'s bargaining power in global trade [13][16] Group 3 - The justification for tariffs as a means to protect national security has been questioned, particularly regarding their effectiveness in combating illegal drug trafficking [15] - Ultimately, the burden of tariffs falls on U.S. consumers, as importers typically pass on the costs, potentially leading to increased domestic inflation [15][16] - Relying on tariffs for government revenue may provide short-term financial benefits but risks long-term economic vitality and exacerbates tensions between domestic consumption and foreign trade [16]

Group 1 - The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) aims for a wage increase of 5% or more in the 2026 labor negotiations, despite pressures from U.S. tariff policies on Japanese export companies [1] - The target for next year's wage increase is consistent with this year's final average increase of 5.25%, marking the largest rise in 34 years, which includes over 3% in base salary growth [1][4] - The union is also targeting a minimum of 6% wage increase for small and medium-sized enterprises to address the income gap with large companies [1] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the rationale for wage increases in next year's negotiations may be less compelling due to the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on the profits of major Japanese exporters [2] - Major exporters are reportedly lowering export prices to absorb tariff costs, which may lead to cautious wage negotiations in the automotive sector and other key industries [3] - The average wage increase for union member companies is projected to be between 4.5% and 4.7% [4] Group 3 - A severe labor shortage may compel companies to continue offering substantial wage increases to attract and retain employees, as competition for talent remains fierce [5] - The current economic conditions are stable, with high prices persisting, and there are no visible factors that would lead to a decrease in wage growth rates [5] - The continuation of wage growth is crucial for Japan's consumer recovery and will directly influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy path [5]

Group 1 - The price of silver has reached a historical high, with significant demand from investors and industries driving the surge [5] - Silver prices touched $53 per ounce, marking an over 85% increase year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's 59% rise [5] - The demand for silver is fueled by its perception as an alternative to gold and increased requirements from the electronics and photovoltaic sectors [5] Group 2 - The recent surge in silver prices is also influenced by buying activity from Indian consumers preparing for wedding season [5] - There are growing concerns that U.S. tariff policies may impact the silver market, creating a sense of caution among investors [7]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 碳酸锂：期货仓单库存大幅去化，偏强运行 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：走强 需求：需求预期普遍较为乐观，且预计可维持至 11 月，但需关注美国对中国储能的关税政策。2025 年 10 月，SMM 预测电池产量 185.8Gwh，环比增长 4%，则言预测正极铁锂排产环比增长 10%，三元环比增 长 2%。10 月 17 日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，自 11 月 1 日起对进口中型和重型卡车及零部件征收 25%的新关税。特朗普称，还将对进口客车征收 10%的关税。 后市观点：偏强运行 期货仓单去库 1.2 万吨，引发碳酸锂期货价格大幅上行，并且升贴水维持走强。受到储能现实强需求 的影响，带动期现价格走强，但是后续存在两大风险点，其一是江西云母矿大厂存在年底前后复产预期， 其二是美国对华关税在 10 月底前后存在加征的变数，从而将明显削弱当前储能需求的旺盛状态。 单边：由于存在向下驱动的风险事件，碳酸锂单边建议看多不追多，期货主力合约价格运行区间预计 7.2-8. ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China are expected to hold a new round of trade negotiations, with discussions focusing on key issues such as agricultural exports and rare earth supplies[11] - The Nasdaq index rose by 2.1% as market concerns over trade tensions eased following the US's softened stance[12] - The upcoming negotiations may prioritize short-term outcomes and risk management, with a focus on tariffs and non-tariff barriers[12] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump and Putin discussed the potential for a meeting in Hungary, indicating a desire to stabilize US-Russia relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions[14] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.2% due to concerns over supply surplus and geopolitical easing, while the Russian RTS index increased by 5.4% following the Trump-Putin conversation[14] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[17] Group 3: Domestic US Politics - The US government shutdown continues, with both parties showing little urgency to resolve the situation, reflecting a politically charged environment[18] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may shift legislative power back to Congress, potentially leading to more stringent trade measures[17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing risk appetite of investors in the Hong Kong mutual fund market, with significant net inflows into equity and mixed funds, while bond funds experienced net outflows in Q3 2025 [1][7]. Fund Performance - The Morgan Asian Dividend Fund saw a remarkable net inflow exceeding 1.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, driven by its focus on balancing capital appreciation and income, aiming to outperform the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index [1]. - In contrast, global equity funds faced challenges due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, leading to significant outflows for funds like the East Asia Union Global Equity Fund [1]. Bond Fund Trends - Despite an overall trend of net outflows from bond funds, the Morgan Asian Total Return Bond Fund attracted nearly 1.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, benefiting from a favorable yield compared to domestic pure bond funds [1]. - Some bond funds, such as the East Asia Union Asian Strategy Bond Fund and the Gao Teng Asian Income Fund, also ranked among the top ten in terms of net inflows during the same period [1]. Market Dynamics - As of September 2025, Morgan and HSBC maintained dominant positions in the Hong Kong mutual fund market, with asset management scales of 78.31 billion yuan and 34.42 billion yuan, respectively, collectively accounting for over 60% of the market [13]. - HSBC has been actively expanding its mutual fund offerings, recently launching the HSBC Asian Multi-Asset High Income Fund to enhance its product matrix [13]. Company-Specific Insights - Swiss Bank Pictet achieved the largest net inflow in the Hong Kong mutual fund market over the past three months, primarily through its Pictet Hong Kong - Pictet Strategy Income Fund, which has consistently ranked among the top 20 in terms of returns [6]. - Morgan continues to lead in net inflows year-to-date, while Schroders faced significant outflows from its only mutual fund, the Schroder Asian High Yield Equity and Bond Fund, placing it at the bottom of the net cash flow rankings [10].

Core Viewpoint - As Christmas approaches, U.S. consumers and businesses face unprecedented supply challenges due to tariffs impacting the availability of holiday decorations, with imports down approximately 25% compared to previous years [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - National Christmas Tree Company reported a significant decline in imports, with August imports down 58% year-over-year and September down over 70% [3]. - October is the last critical month for imports, and the current decline suggests a bleak outlook for the Christmas retail season [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Consumer Impact - The company has raised prices by about 10% due to increased tariff costs, leading to higher holiday expenses for consumers [3]. - U.S. consumers are expected to bear over 55% of the tariff costs, while businesses will absorb 22% and foreign exporters will take on 18% [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - Over 60% of National Christmas Tree Company's imports come from China, with 45% of its production bases located there [4]. - The company is exploring automation and nearshore production to alleviate pressure, but domestic production costs are prohibitively high, making it economically unfeasible [4]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The implementation of tariffs has led to an average price increase of about 4% for imported goods and 2% for domestic products [4]. - Concerns are rising about demand softening as consumers struggle with rising prices, with reports indicating a 60% reduction in orders from physical retailers and local hardware stores [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly, with a predicted reduction of 80 yuan per ton, marking the eighth price cut this year [1]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 13, the retail price of refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustments, with the current forecast indicating a drop exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1]. - In 2023, there have been 19 rounds of price adjustments for domestic refined oil, including 6 increases, 6 instances of no change, and 7 decreases [1]. - The average decrease in gasoline and diesel prices compared to the end of last year is 405 yuan per ton and 390 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. International Oil Price Trends - On October 10, WTI crude oil futures fell by 5.32%, reaching the lowest point since May [3]. - The domestic crude oil futures also saw a decline, with the main contract dropping by 4.55%, nearing the May low [3]. - The recent significant drop in international oil prices suggests that there may still be room for further declines [5][6]. Market Analysis - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures and Zhonghui Futures indicate that the combination of ample supply, weakening demand, and reduced geopolitical risks may lead to further declines in oil prices in the coming week [6]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on oil prices is highlighted as a significant factor, with expectations of continued downward pressure [6].

2025年 10月 8日，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）赶在财政部因政府停摆可能推迟官方数据前，抛出一 颗财政震撼弹，2025财年联邦预算赤字仍高达1.8 万亿美元，仅比2024 财年收窄80亿美元。这一数字不 仅把特朗普关税推上风口浪尖，也撕开了美国经济扩张时期罕见的高赤字真相，关税收入翻倍，却被万 亿美元利息账单、刚性社保支出以及企业税减收轻易吞噬，留下一条难以弥合的结构性裂痕。 关税红包，1950亿美元的甜蜜与尴尬 特朗普1 月重返白宫后，对数十国商品加征的惩罚性关税在夏季全面落地，直接把2025 财年关税收入推 至1950 亿美元，比上一财年的770 亿美元激增154%，创下历史新高。 社保福利支出在2025 财年增加1210 亿美元，增幅8%，主因是通胀挂钩的生活成本调整（COLA）与1 月生效的新福利扩张法案。1946—1964年出生的婴儿潮一代正加速退休，每天约有一万人跨入65 岁门 槛，社保信托基金受托人报告预计，2033年基金储备将耗尽，届时需削减23% 福利或提高32%工资税才 能维持刚兑。特朗普政府虽在竞选时承诺不动社保，但面对每年自动增加的银发账单，白宫至今未拿出 可行改革路线图。 企业 ...