本文源自：格隆汇 12月5日，光大证券国际产品开发及零售研究部预期，2026年上半年主要央行维持宽松政策以稳定经 济。美国关税政策及美国政府停摆天数创纪录，虽然短期影响市场情绪，但明年上半年美国仍可能降息 一次，将支持资金流向新兴市场，有利内地及香港股市向上。 光大证券国际证券策略师伍礼贤表示，该行认为恒指明年有机会再次见到30000点以上的水平。在可关 注板块方面，该行认为在2026年，中资金融、智能科技、能源有色、本地金融等四大板块仍存在不错的 投资机遇。 ...

SHMET 网讯：一则商品交易巨头的消息在给最近大涨的铜价火上浇油。若消息属实，将加剧市场对 全球铜供应短缺的担忧，可能进一步推动铜价创下历史新高。 据4日周四的媒体报道，瑞士大宗商品交易商Mercuria已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所（LME）的 亚洲仓库提取超过4万吨铜，按近期价格计算价值约4.6亿美元。 一些知情人士向该媒体透露，Mercuria在12月2日周二取消或标记了超过4万吨韩国和中国台湾LME仓 库交付的铜。此举将提高现货铜合约相对于三个月期铜期货价格的溢价，反映出交易商对实物铜日益 增长的需求。Mercuria拒绝对此置评。 巧的是，最近有分析指出，本周三，LME亚洲区域仓库的注销仓单达到50725吨，创2013年以来新 高。 传出Mercuria消息前一天，本周三，LME期铜交易价大反弹。当天伦铜收涨342美元，涨近3.08%，收 报1.1488万美元/吨，盘中一度触及1.154万美元的历史高点，史上首次涨破1.15万美元。这是该期铜合 约最近四个交易日内第三日创收盘最高纪录。 周四伦铜小幅回落，收跌38美元、跌逾0.3%，报1.145万美元/吨，今年内的累计涨幅仍保持在30%左 右。 ...

近来铜价屡创新高的主要推手是市场对铜供应短缺的预期高涨。这部分源于两大铜生产国印尼和智利的铜矿供应中断，以及需求加速增长。同时，大量 金属因特朗普政府施加关税的预期涌向美国市场,令全球其他地区库存面临枯竭的风险。分析认为，LME亚洲仓库的注销仓单激增主要折射出两大驱 动：美国关税预期和跨市套利窗口。 媒体称，Mercuria本周二取消或标记了超过4万吨韩国和中国台湾LME仓库交付的铜，按近期价格算价值约4.6亿美元。此前分析称，周三LME亚洲仓库 注销仓单激增至十年新高，主要为美国关税预期和跨市套利窗口驱动。 据4日周四的媒体报道，瑞士大宗商品交易商Mercuria已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所（LME）的亚洲仓库提取超过4万吨铜，按近期价格计算价值 约4.6亿美元。 一些知情人士向该媒体透露，Mercuria在12月2日周二取消或标记了超过4万吨韩国和中国台湾LME仓库交付的铜。此举将提高现货铜合约相对于三个 月期铜期货价格的溢价，反映出交易商对实物铜日益增长的需求。Mercuria拒绝对此置评。 巧的是，最近有分析指出，本周三，LME亚洲区域仓库的注销仓单达到50725吨，创2013年以来新高。 传出M ...

一则商品交易巨头的消息在给最近大涨的铜价火上浇油。若消息属实，将加剧市场对全球铜供应短缺的 担忧，可能进一步推动铜价创下历史新高。 据美东时间4日周四的媒体报道,瑞士大宗商品交易商Mercuria已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所 （LME）的亚洲仓库提取超过4万吨铜，按近期价格计算价值约4.6亿美元。 一些知情人士向该媒体透露，Mercuria在12月2日周二取消或标记了超过4万吨韩国和中国台湾LME仓库 交付的铜。此举将提高现货铜合约相对于三个月期铜期货价格的溢价，反映出交易商对实物铜日益增长 的需求。Mercuria拒绝对此置评。 巧的是，最近有分析指出，本周三，LME亚洲区域仓库的注销仓单达到50725吨，创2013年以来新高。 传出上述消息前一天，本周三，LME期铜交易价已经大反弹。当天伦铜收涨342美元，涨近3.08%，收 报1.1488万美元/吨，盘中一度触及1.154万美元的历史高点，史上首次盘中涨破1.15万美元。这是该期 铜合约最近四个交易日内第三日创收盘最高纪录。 周四伦铜小幅回落，收跌38美元、跌逾0.3%，报1.145万美元/吨，今年内的累计涨幅仍保持在30%左 右。 近来铜价屡创新高 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. businesses and consumers are significantly impacted by the country's tariff policies, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, leading to a situation where the U.S. is "suffering the consequences of its own actions" [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Prices - Initial months of tariff implementation show that U.S. companies are absorbing the costs and passing some onto consumers, with a notable increase in prices expected [1] - Since the imposition of tariffs in early March, import prices have risen by 4%, while domestic product prices have increased by 2% [1] - The largest price increases are seen in products that the U.S. cannot produce domestically, such as coffee, or those from countries facing significant tariff penalties [1] Group 2: Cost Absorption by Sellers - Despite the price increases, they remain lower than the corresponding tariff rates, indicating that sellers are also absorbing some of the costs [2] - Research indicates that foreign exporters have been raising prices in U.S. dollar terms, transferring some costs related to currency depreciation to American buyers [2] Group 3: Ongoing Tariff Policy and Inflation Risks - The average level of U.S. import tariffs has risen from approximately 2% to an estimated 17%, with ongoing negotiations among exporters, importers, and consumers regarding the distribution of tariff costs [2] - U.S. inflation faces upward risks, and while the Federal Reserve has recently cut rates due to concerns over a weak job market, there is disagreement among policymakers about whether tariff-driven inflation will subside [2] - The anticipated effects of U.S. tariffs have not fully materialized, with expectations that these impacts will become more pronounced in the coming months [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices above $11,000 per ton is unsustainable due to sufficient global copper supply, predicting prices will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of approximately 500,000 tons in the copper market for 2025, primarily due to weak demand in some Asian countries in Q4, with the surplus narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026, indicating a gradual market balance [5]. - The recent rise in copper prices is driven by market expectations of future supply tightness rather than current demand or inventory changes, with speculative positions nearing historical highs [4][6]. - Despite concerns over low inventory levels outside the U.S., Goldman Sachs believes the severity of this issue is overstated, suggesting that regional inventory tightness can be alleviated through market mechanisms [6]. Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average LME copper price in the first half of 2026 to $10,710 per ton, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, which are expected to support prices [5][7]. - The firm anticipates a slight price correction in the second half of 2026 following the implementation of tariffs, despite short-term price increases driven by tariff expectations and inventory movements [5][7]. - Long-term projections indicate that copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035, reflecting structural demand growth and resource constraints [7]. Investment Outlook - Copper is still viewed as the "preferred" industrial metal by Goldman Sachs, driven by investments in global energy infrastructure and strategic sectors like AI and defense [3][7]. - Investors are encouraged to take long positions in December 2027 LME copper contracts, with a solid price floor at $10,000 per ton expected [7].

据韩媒报道，现代汽车将于12月1日至12日期间，再次暂时关停位于韩国蔚山第一工厂2号生产线。据悉，此次停产的生产线为电动汽车专属产线，主要承担 现代旗舰电动车型IONIQ 5等产品的生产任务，涉及该生产线全体技术工人（合同工除外）的生产作业，这已是该公司今年以来因电动汽车需求疲软而实施 的第10次临时停产。 现代汽车此次减产，和韩国国内电动汽车补贴政策的变化脱不开关系。根据韩国环境部消息，包括首尔在内的大部分地区，今年的电动汽车购车补贴申请已 全部截止，消费者若想获得购车补贴需等到明年。补贴取消的效应立竿见影，韩国市场分析机构CarIsYou的数据显示，韩国本土电动汽车销量从9月的28528 辆降至10月的28000辆，随着11月补贴取消影响的进一步发酵，预计销量还将持续走低。 与此同时，美国关税政策也对韩国本土电动汽车生产造成了负面影响。美国对韩国汽车征收15%的关税，为应对这一政策，现代汽车扩大了在美国的电动汽 车产能。其在美国佐治亚州的首个电动汽车专用生产基地HMGMA工厂于今年正式全面投产，并持续扩大产能。今年1月至10月，该工厂IONIQ 5和IONIQ 9 两款电动车型产量达53194辆，这一举措 ...

来源：中国新闻网、环球时报 特朗普接着表示，他不会点名那些"剥削美国"的国家，不过还是举例提到了韩国和日本。 "一些国家都在剥削我们，包括我们的盟友，它们多年来一直在剥削我们。 我不会说出它们 的名字，我不会提到日本，我拒绝提到韩国。 "特朗普说道。 现场视频显示，当特朗普发表上述言论时，现场传来了笑声。 据《今日美国》2日报道，美国总统特朗普在谈到美国实施关税的相关情况时，提到了对一 些美国盟友的不满。 据报道，特朗普在讲话中说，美国对世界各地的进口商品征收关税，获得了数十亿美元的收 入。 ...

Core Points - President Trump stated that certain unnamed countries, including allies like Japan and South Korea, have been "exploiting" the United States for years [1][3] - He emphasized that the tariffs imposed by his administration have generated "billions of dollars" in revenue for the U.S. [1][3] - Trump's comments were made during a cabinet meeting, where he expressed dissatisfaction with some U.S. allies [1][3] Summary by Sections - **Tariffs and Revenue**: Trump highlighted that the tariffs implemented by the current administration have brought in "billions of dollars" in revenue from global sources [1][3] - **Allegations of Exploitation**: He accused several countries, particularly allies, of taking advantage of the U.S. economically, without naming specific nations during his remarks [1][3] - **Public Reaction**: A video broadcast by CNN captured a moment of slight laughter from the audience when Trump made his "unnamed" allegations [2][4]

格隆汇12月3日｜特朗普内阁会议在谈到美国对各国实施关税的相关情况时表示，本届政府施加的关 税"从全球给美国带来了数十亿美元的收入"。他还提到了自己对一些"美国盟友国家"的不满。"很多国 家都在剥削我们，包括我们的盟友，他们多年来一直在剥削我们。我不会说出它们的名字，我不会提到 日本，我拒绝提到韩国。"特朗普在发言中称。 ...