Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Report Core Views - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is affected by the expected high yield and technical adjustments, and is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic bean meal is influenced by the US soybean trend, with high imports in August and spot price discounts limiting the upside. It may enter a moderately strong oscillatory pattern in the short term. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3080 and 3140 [8]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean market is under pressure from the expected high yield and good growth weather, while the domestic soybean market is affected by the expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content for daily prompt is provided 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and China - US tariff negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans remains high in August, and the oil - mill bean meal inventory is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the bean meal returns to the range - oscillating pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly, waiting for the clear South American soybean output and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total domestic imports of soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price in East China is 3010, and the basis is - 107, indicating a discount to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans at ports in August remains high, and the output of bean meal in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has recovered, and the pick - up volume remains high. - **Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit margin of imported soybeans on the futures market has worsened [8][24][51]. - **Soybean** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4300, and the basis is 308, indicating a premium to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans may suppress the price, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand provide some support [10]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions have decreased, but the funds have flowed in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a range - bound and slightly bullish pattern. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the influence of rapeseed meal [8]. - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state in the short - term. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the price [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Progress in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imports, and tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The short - term increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short - term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2980, with a basis of - 177, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 259, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main contracts have decreased, but capital has flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, inventory, production, consumption, etc., from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Provide data on soybean harvest areas, yields, production, inventory, exports, and consumption in the US from February to August 2025 [41]. - **Other Market Data**: Such as the export inspection volume of US soybeans, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, the inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the situation of the pig - farming market [42][44][45][50][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term, influenced by the rebound of US soybeans and the rise of rapeseed meal. However, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices will limit the upward movement of the futures price. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3140 and 3200 [8]. - The domestic soybeans are affected by the rise of US soybeans and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the upward movement of the price. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No information provided in the content. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the arrival of imported soybeans, as well as the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the domestic soybean meal is in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recovery of soybean meal demand and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations may lead the soybean meal to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued increase in domestic soybean meal inventory, the potential weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war cause the short - term moderately bullish oscillation of soybean meal, waiting for the clear production of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic soybean meal at oil mills; uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July; the end of Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From August 4th to 13th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 and 3097, and the trading volume varied from 5.25 to 31.15 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2600 and 2680, and the trading volume was relatively small, ranging from 0 to 0.3 million tons [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 5th to 13th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend. The spot price of soybeans remained stable at 4300, and the spot price of soybean meal increased from 2910 to 3000 [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From August 1st to 13th, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 10950 to 8925. The soybean (bean - one) warehouse receipt decreased from 13402 to 12865, and the soybean (bean - two) warehouse receipt decreased from 2600 to 2900 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changing trends of harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, reflecting the development situation of the soybean industry in different regions [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From February to August 2025, the data of the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show the changes in harvest area, yield, production, and other indicators [41]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in August has declined from the high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the soybean meal inventory has remained basically flat [45]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in short - term stocking demand [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from the high level, and the soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures profit has also fluctuated slightly [50]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month [52]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen, and the piglet price has remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit has recently declined [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3080 and 3140. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The market is affected by factors like the cost of imported soybeans, the harvest situation in South America, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, with the price of M2601 ranging from 3080 to 3140. The soybean market is neutral, with the price of A2511 ranging from 4000 to 4100 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to fluctuate near the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 171, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 266, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is influenced by weather uncertainties and awaits the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. Domestically, high soybean imports in July and weak spot prices suppress the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom support due to weather uncertainties, but the high - yield South American soybeans and good U.S. planting weather limit its upside. Domestically, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports the bottom, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: Fundamental analysis shows a neutral stance. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have decreased while funds have flowed in. It is expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamental view is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has slightly increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but heading up, and the main positions have shifted from short to long while funds have flowed out. The price is expected to face constraints on the upside [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the market is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - High domestic soybean imports in July, increasing bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean weather and China - U.S. trade negotiations have led to a return to a range - bound pattern for bean meal [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the recent increase in bean meal demand and uncertainties in China - U.S. trade negotiations have also contributed to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Bean Meal Bearish**: High domestic soybean imports in July and the expected high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Expected high - yield Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio generally fluctuating [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory are presented, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also changed over time [32]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal Futures**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the high - level spot discount has narrowed [22]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 23 to August 4 shows changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and bean meal [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4080至4180区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差178，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存645.59万吨，上周642.24万吨，环比增加0.52%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the large arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas suppresses the market, and it is oscillating above the thousand - point mark waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after reaching the bottom, with technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price suppress the market. It may return to the range - bound pattern. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the long positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and rising, affected by the US soybean trend and technical oscillatory consolidation. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased slightly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of the Sino - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US futures have risen and then fallen back, expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal has risen and then fallen back due to the reduction of protein content in feed formulations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war still exist, and the soybean meal remains oscillatory in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [30]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main force in the soybean meal market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - The short positions of the main force in the soybean market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [41]. - The arrival peak of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking has increased [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal output in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of imported soybean futures has also fluctuated slightly [49]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month [51]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen back, and the piglet price has remained weak [53]. - The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [55]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has recently declined [57].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕大幅 回落，农业部推动饲料配方中减少蛋白含量不利需求和获利盘回吐，七月进口大豆到港 维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-195，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 2980 - 3040. The US soybean market is influenced by good US soybean crushing data, but the high import of soybeans in June and weak spot prices in China suppress the market. The US soybean growing - season weather has uncertainties, and South American soybean harvest is abundant, which may limit the upward movement of the soybean meal price. [8] - **For Soybeans (A2509)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4140 - 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production may suppress the price. [10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - No content related to daily hints is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories rebounded from low levels. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets were affected by the decline of US soybeans and showed a downward trend. - The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war still existed. The soybean meal market is expected to remain in oscillation, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war. [12] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continued. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [13] 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2810, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. [8] - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. [10] 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 7th to July 16th are provided, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [15] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from July 8th to July 16th are provided. [17] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from July 4th to July 16th are provided, along with the changes compared to the previous day. [19] - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. [30][31] - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season are provided. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. [40] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [41] - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, with an overall increase. The monthly arrival volume from 2020 to 2025 is provided. [43] - **Oil - Mill Inventory and Production**: The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year. [44][46][48] - **Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the profit of imported soybean futures fluctuated slightly. [50] - **Pig Farming**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level. [52][54][56][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of US soybeans is affected by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the weak spot price limit the upward space of the soybean meal price. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound state. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans, but is suppressed by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4020 and 4120 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bearish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by the decline of US soybeans and are in a short - term downward trend. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the supply is tight, and the soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas. Bearish factors include the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 147, indicating a discount to the futures. The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 121, indicating a premium to the futures [8][10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic pig farming profit has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. The supply of soybean meal is tight, and the market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [10].