Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering by former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, highlighting concerns over the potential loss of the Fed's independence and the implications for the U.S. economy and global markets [1][7][15]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed for a 14-year term, is likened to a landlord trying to evict a tenant with a long lease, illustrating the absurdity of his actions [3][5]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to the upcoming elections, as he seeks to lower interest rates to alleviate housing costs and gain voter support [5][12]. - Trump's desire to replace Fed officials with those aligned with his policies indicates a strategy to exert control over the Fed to implement his economic agenda [5][12]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve and the Economy - The potential interference in the Fed's operations threatens its independence, which has historically been crucial for maintaining economic stability and managing crises [7][8]. - If the Fed becomes a tool for political agendas, it could lead to market panic, a loss of confidence in the dollar, and increased yields on government bonds, undermining the U.S. economy's credibility [8][10]. - The risk of inflation resurgence is highlighted, as pushing for lower interest rates could reignite inflationary pressures, negatively impacting consumers despite short-term benefits [10][12]. Group 3: Political Calculations and Consequences - Trump's strategy to manipulate the Fed for electoral gain may backfire legally and politically, as courts are likely to uphold the Fed's independence [12][13]. - The public's concern over inflation may overshadow any immediate benefits from lower interest rates, leading to voter dissatisfaction if economic conditions do not improve as expected [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence for long-term economic health, warning against the dangers of prioritizing short-term political gains over sound economic policy [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. federal judge has ordered Elon Musk to respond to a class-action lawsuit regarding a "$1 million lottery" campaign that allegedly misled voters into providing personal information [1] Group 1: Legal Issues - The lawsuit was initiated by Arizona voter McCafferty, who claims Musk and his political action committee misrepresented the lottery, leading voters to believe they had a chance to win $1 million [1] - The campaign aimed to attract signatures from voters in seven key swing states, but participants were required to provide personal information without a real chance of winning [1] Group 2: Political Context - During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Musk has been a strong supporter of Republican candidate Trump, launching initiatives in critical swing states like Pennsylvania [1] - Musk's campaign involved daily random drawings for $1 million among participants, which has raised legal concerns regarding its legitimacy [1] Group 3: Legal Proceedings - In October 2024, the Philadelphia District Attorney filed a lawsuit against Musk and the America PAC, accusing them of attempting to influence voters in the presidential election [1] - A Pennsylvania judge ruled that the lottery campaign could continue despite the legal challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political future of Vice President Vance, who has been labeled as a likely successor to President Trump for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, despite his controversial past remarks about Trump [3][10]. Group 1: Vance's Political Position - Vance has rapidly transformed from a critic of Trump to a favored candidate, winning a Senate seat in 2022 and being positioned for the vice presidency in 2024 [3]. - His alignment with Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) policies has garnered him support, but his lack of extensive political experience raises concerns about his governance capabilities [10][12]. Group 2: Competition within the Republican Party - Florida Governor DeSantis is a significant rival, boasting a strong political record and a substantial following among conservative voters, which makes him a formidable contender against Vance [5][9]. - Senator Rubio, also mentioned as a potential running mate for Vance, has a solid political foundation and could pose a challenge due to his established connections and experience [7][9]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks for Vance - Traditional Republican establishment figures express skepticism towards Vance's extreme political stance and limited experience, favoring more moderate candidates like DeSantis and Rubio [9]. - Vance's controversial views, particularly on foreign policy, may alienate certain voter segments, complicating his path to securing broader support [10][12]. - The Democratic Party is preparing to leverage Vance's past statements against him, potentially branding him as inconsistent or elitist, which could hinder his appeal to moderate voters [12]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties - The political landscape is unpredictable, and while Trump's endorsement provides Vance with an initial advantage, his future success will depend on his performance in office and ability to navigate challenges [12][13]. - The article suggests that the political race is akin to a reality show, where the ultimate winner is uncertain until the end, emphasizing the dynamic nature of political competition [13].

Core Points - The investigation into former special prosecutor Jack Smith is based on allegations of "illegal political activity" related to his investigation of Trump [1] - Smith was appointed to investigate Trump shortly after he announced his candidacy for the 2024 election, raising concerns about the political motivations behind the investigation [1][2] - The special prosecutor's office is facing internal turmoil and leadership changes, which may affect its independence and effectiveness [2][3] Group 1 - The special prosecutor's office is an independent oversight body established by Congress, lacking criminal enforcement authority [1] - Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton has called for an investigation into Smith's activities, suggesting they are politically motivated to aid Biden's campaign [1] - Smith's investigations include allegations against Trump for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results and mishandling government documents [1] Group 2 - Trump has denied any wrongdoing and claims that Smith's investigation is a weaponization of federal agencies [2] - Following Trump's potential victory in the 2024 election, Smith may have to drop charges against him due to the customary practice of not prosecuting sitting presidents [2] - The special prosecutor's office is reportedly divided and facing leadership instability, with recent changes in its head [2][3] Group 3 - The Department of Justice has publicly stated it is investigating Smith and other prosecutors involved in cases against Trump through a "weaponization task force" [3] - Smith is not the first former government official under investigation during Trump's second term; former FBI Director James Comey is also being investigated [3] - Allegations against Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan involve providing false statements to Congress [3]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called the "American Party" to liberate citizens from the two-party system in the U.S. [1] - A poll conducted by Musk showed that 65.4% of over 1.24 million participants supported the establishment of the "American Party" [1] - The U.S. electoral system operates on an indirect election basis, where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2] Group 2 - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the most votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes [2] - Historically, the two-party system has been stable in the U.S., with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their established voter bases and resources [3] - Third parties have existed in the U.S., but they often struggle to gain significant traction, with many candidates participating primarily to raise their profile rather than to win [3] Group 3 - Musk's political activities have negatively impacted Tesla's stock price, which fell nearly 7% following his announcement about the new party, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $68 billion [4] - Analysts have downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "buy" to "hold" due to concerns over Musk's political involvement and its potential adverse effects on the company [5] - Musk's high compensation package has drawn criticism, and there are calls for more oversight regarding his political activities and their impact on Tesla [5]

Group 1 - The United States is currently limited to using economic methods such as trade wars and tariffs to confront China due to complex considerations and various influencing factors [2] - The U.S. economy exhibits structural vulnerabilities, with consumer spending accounting for approximately 30% of global household final consumption, leading to a high dependency on imports [2] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from 17% in 1991 to 10.2% in 2023, indicating a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The political environment in the U.S. is characterized by high levels of partisanship and polarization, with figures like Trump leveraging a tough stance on China to gain electoral support [3] - This strategy diverts public attention from domestic issues, focusing blame on China and consolidating political backing, particularly in regions like the Rust Belt [3] Group 3 - From the perspective of international law and order, the U.S. recognizes that direct military confrontation would violate international laws and norms [4] - Trade disputes and tariff adjustments provide a framework within international rules, allowing the U.S. to express dissatisfaction and exert influence without resorting to military action [4] Group 4 - The U.S. military strategy is complex, with a global network of alliances and strategic positioning, maintaining a dominant military presence [5] - Direct military confrontation could provoke a strong response from China, leading to significant casualties and economic losses, as well as potential global economic repercussions [5]

先回应昨晚关于诉讼维权的提问，每一个股票诉讼都有一个时间窗口期，从x年x月x日到x年x月x日，具体可以查看维权的报名列表，在窗口期内你不能清 仓股票，否则就没机会诉讼了。所谓窗口期通常是证监会立案调查的揭露日，出了那个区间，你卖了也没影响。 具体维权个股列表点击查看： 索赔报名 目前有125个项目推进中。 今天的行情依然无聊，日内成交1.11万亿，比昨天高一丢丢，但依然处于低量区间。中位数下跌1.76%，这就属于有一定痛感的跌幅，但尾 盘发生了和昨天一样的情况，国家队大约百亿规模的资金涌入多只宽基etf抬轿。 比如我截图的这个华夏沪深300（510330），昨天尾盘偷袭30亿，今天尾盘偷袭50亿，不惜代价也要达成一个目的，就是把主板指数拉红。 只要舍得花钱，国家队是可以达到局部目的的，跌了一天的上证指数最后时刻翻红，自贸易战以来已经实现7连涨。我昨天已经分析过这个现象，官方不 愿意让a股成为贸易战中方阵脚不稳或者国内信心不足的符号，所以这一次护盘力度是很大的。 2、之前那个预测美国大选的区块链赌场，最近又开了关于特朗普的几个盘口，我把其中比较有意思的分享一下。第一个是美国将在7月份 之前和哪些国家达成贸易协议 ...

据说哈里斯的民调最近又反弹了，尤其是在几个摇摆州，目前可能领先特朗普。 我这里的用词是"据说"和"可能"，美国历史上所谓的民调翻过好几次车，比较有名的是1948年那一次，当时民调杜威遥 遥领先杜鲁门，国共内战中处于下风的常公为了争取美国的支持，让孔祥熙拿着400万美元去支持杜威。结果杜威意外 落败，获胜的杜鲁门因为这件事对国民政府态度冷漠，结果第二年常公就被赶到岛上去了。 民调主要有两个问题，一个是样本不够有代表性，男多女少，穷多富少，白多黑少，都有可能失真。另一个问题是被调 查者经常会撒谎，这事我一开始不太理解，后来才知道很多人在特定情境下会表现出和真实想法不一样的自己。 可能很多读者看了那么多美国大选的热闹，一直到现在也搞不清楚民主党和共和党的区别在哪里，ok，我用他们显著分 歧的议题做一个测试，看看假如你是美国公民的话，你是蓝还是红？ 1、注重环保，哪怕经济承受一定代价也要坚持绿色发展。 支持or反对？ 2、鼓励移民，对非法移民态度温和。 支持or反对？ 5、坚决维护女性在堕胎这件事上的绝对自由权利。 支持or反对？ 6、认为美国在外交上应该积极援助盟友（乌克兰以色列），扩张影响力，放弃"孤立主义"。 ...

今天有几件事值得聊聊。 最大的新闻是和特朗普有关的34项重罪指控成立，而这一切都是源于"封口费"案件。所谓的封口费，是懂王之前出轨了美国艳星丹尼尔斯，然后让私人律 师给她13万美元，要求她闭嘴，不要在总统选举的时候出来坏事。 这事在我看来只是权贵们的基操，我不懂美国法律，没想到这么点屁事竟能因此判出34项罪名，而且每一项罪名据说都能判4年。老懂肯定不认罪，强调 是政治迫害。 我估计有读者看到这会有点懵，不是马上就要大选了吗，这会判有罪会坐牢吗？还能参选吗？ 暂时不会坐牢，老懂肯定要上诉，后面官司可能要打到州最高法院，时间目测要拖1年以上，在最终裁定做出之前老懂不用坐牢，也可以参加2024年底的 总统大选，因为美国没有规定罪犯不能当总统候选人。 那现在被判了34项罪名会影响老懂的选情吗？ 目前看来不会，甚至很可能是反向助攻。判罚结果出来后，特朗普的捐款网站瞬间就被挤爆，支持者们踊跃打钱，号召要帮老懂洗刷冤屈，打倒政 治迫害。 由此也能看出美国现在也挺割裂的，驴象两党站队严重，互相之间的打击报复也越来越不择手段。以前总统选举时的阴招最多就是道德攻击，搞臭 你，现在都开始司法定罪了，这要是选不上总统就要去坐牢了。 ...