Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political future of Vice President Vance, who has been labeled as a likely successor to President Trump for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, despite his controversial past remarks about Trump [3][10]. Group 1: Vance's Political Position - Vance has rapidly transformed from a critic of Trump to a favored candidate, winning a Senate seat in 2022 and being positioned for the vice presidency in 2024 [3]. - His alignment with Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) policies has garnered him support, but his lack of extensive political experience raises concerns about his governance capabilities [10][12]. Group 2: Competition within the Republican Party - Florida Governor DeSantis is a significant rival, boasting a strong political record and a substantial following among conservative voters, which makes him a formidable contender against Vance [5][9]. - Senator Rubio, also mentioned as a potential running mate for Vance, has a solid political foundation and could pose a challenge due to his established connections and experience [7][9]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks for Vance - Traditional Republican establishment figures express skepticism towards Vance's extreme political stance and limited experience, favoring more moderate candidates like DeSantis and Rubio [9]. - Vance's controversial views, particularly on foreign policy, may alienate certain voter segments, complicating his path to securing broader support [10][12]. - The Democratic Party is preparing to leverage Vance's past statements against him, potentially branding him as inconsistent or elitist, which could hinder his appeal to moderate voters [12]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties - The political landscape is unpredictable, and while Trump's endorsement provides Vance with an initial advantage, his future success will depend on his performance in office and ability to navigate challenges [12][13]. - The article suggests that the political race is akin to a reality show, where the ultimate winner is uncertain until the end, emphasizing the dynamic nature of political competition [13].

Core Points - The investigation into former special prosecutor Jack Smith is based on allegations of "illegal political activity" related to his investigation of Trump [1] - Smith was appointed to investigate Trump shortly after he announced his candidacy for the 2024 election, raising concerns about the political motivations behind the investigation [1][2] - The special prosecutor's office is facing internal turmoil and leadership changes, which may affect its independence and effectiveness [2][3] Group 1 - The special prosecutor's office is an independent oversight body established by Congress, lacking criminal enforcement authority [1] - Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton has called for an investigation into Smith's activities, suggesting they are politically motivated to aid Biden's campaign [1] - Smith's investigations include allegations against Trump for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results and mishandling government documents [1] Group 2 - Trump has denied any wrongdoing and claims that Smith's investigation is a weaponization of federal agencies [2] - Following Trump's potential victory in the 2024 election, Smith may have to drop charges against him due to the customary practice of not prosecuting sitting presidents [2] - The special prosecutor's office is reportedly divided and facing leadership instability, with recent changes in its head [2][3] Group 3 - The Department of Justice has publicly stated it is investigating Smith and other prosecutors involved in cases against Trump through a "weaponization task force" [3] - Smith is not the first former government official under investigation during Trump's second term; former FBI Director James Comey is also being investigated [3] - Allegations against Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan involve providing false statements to Congress [3]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called the "American Party" to liberate citizens from the two-party system in the U.S. [1] - A poll conducted by Musk showed that 65.4% of over 1.24 million participants supported the establishment of the "American Party" [1] - The U.S. electoral system operates on an indirect election basis, where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2] Group 2 - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the most votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes [2] - Historically, the two-party system has been stable in the U.S., with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their established voter bases and resources [3] - Third parties have existed in the U.S., but they often struggle to gain significant traction, with many candidates participating primarily to raise their profile rather than to win [3] Group 3 - Musk's political activities have negatively impacted Tesla's stock price, which fell nearly 7% following his announcement about the new party, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $68 billion [4] - Analysts have downgraded Tesla's stock rating from "buy" to "hold" due to concerns over Musk's political involvement and its potential adverse effects on the company [5] - Musk's high compensation package has drawn criticism, and there are calls for more oversight regarding his political activities and their impact on Tesla [5]

Group 1 - The United States is currently limited to using economic methods such as trade wars and tariffs to confront China due to complex considerations and various influencing factors [2] - The U.S. economy exhibits structural vulnerabilities, with consumer spending accounting for approximately 30% of global household final consumption, leading to a high dependency on imports [2] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from 17% in 1991 to 10.2% in 2023, indicating a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The political environment in the U.S. is characterized by high levels of partisanship and polarization, with figures like Trump leveraging a tough stance on China to gain electoral support [3] - This strategy diverts public attention from domestic issues, focusing blame on China and consolidating political backing, particularly in regions like the Rust Belt [3] Group 3 - From the perspective of international law and order, the U.S. recognizes that direct military confrontation would violate international laws and norms [4] - Trade disputes and tariff adjustments provide a framework within international rules, allowing the U.S. to express dissatisfaction and exert influence without resorting to military action [4] Group 4 - The U.S. military strategy is complex, with a global network of alliances and strategic positioning, maintaining a dominant military presence [5] - Direct military confrontation could provoke a strong response from China, leading to significant casualties and economic losses, as well as potential global economic repercussions [5]

先回应昨晚关于诉讼维权的提问，每一个股票诉讼都有一个时间窗口期，从x年x月x日到x年x月x日，具体可以查看维权的报名列表，在窗口期内你不能清 仓股票，否则就没机会诉讼了。所谓窗口期通常是证监会立案调查的揭露日，出了那个区间，你卖了也没影响。 具体维权个股列表点击查看： 索赔报名 目前有125个项目推进中。 今天的行情依然无聊，日内成交1.11万亿，比昨天高一丢丢，但依然处于低量区间。中位数下跌1.76%，这就属于有一定痛感的跌幅，但尾 盘发生了和昨天一样的情况，国家队大约百亿规模的资金涌入多只宽基etf抬轿。 比如我截图的这个华夏沪深300（510330），昨天尾盘偷袭30亿，今天尾盘偷袭50亿，不惜代价也要达成一个目的，就是把主板指数拉红。 只要舍得花钱，国家队是可以达到局部目的的，跌了一天的上证指数最后时刻翻红，自贸易战以来已经实现7连涨。我昨天已经分析过这个现象，官方不 愿意让a股成为贸易战中方阵脚不稳或者国内信心不足的符号，所以这一次护盘力度是很大的。 2、之前那个预测美国大选的区块链赌场，最近又开了关于特朗普的几个盘口，我把其中比较有意思的分享一下。第一个是美国将在7月份 之前和哪些国家达成贸易协议 ...

据说哈里斯的民调最近又反弹了，尤其是在几个摇摆州，目前可能领先特朗普。 我这里的用词是"据说"和"可能"，美国历史上所谓的民调翻过好几次车，比较有名的是1948年那一次，当时民调杜威遥 遥领先杜鲁门，国共内战中处于下风的常公为了争取美国的支持，让孔祥熙拿着400万美元去支持杜威。结果杜威意外 落败，获胜的杜鲁门因为这件事对国民政府态度冷漠，结果第二年常公就被赶到岛上去了。 民调主要有两个问题，一个是样本不够有代表性，男多女少，穷多富少，白多黑少，都有可能失真。另一个问题是被调 查者经常会撒谎，这事我一开始不太理解，后来才知道很多人在特定情境下会表现出和真实想法不一样的自己。 可能很多读者看了那么多美国大选的热闹，一直到现在也搞不清楚民主党和共和党的区别在哪里，ok，我用他们显著分 歧的议题做一个测试，看看假如你是美国公民的话，你是蓝还是红？ 1、注重环保，哪怕经济承受一定代价也要坚持绿色发展。 支持or反对？ 2、鼓励移民，对非法移民态度温和。 支持or反对？ 5、坚决维护女性在堕胎这件事上的绝对自由权利。 支持or反对？ 6、认为美国在外交上应该积极援助盟友（乌克兰以色列），扩张影响力，放弃"孤立主义"。 ...

今天有几件事值得聊聊。 最大的新闻是和特朗普有关的34项重罪指控成立，而这一切都是源于"封口费"案件。所谓的封口费，是懂王之前出轨了美国艳星丹尼尔斯，然后让私人律 师给她13万美元，要求她闭嘴，不要在总统选举的时候出来坏事。 这事在我看来只是权贵们的基操，我不懂美国法律，没想到这么点屁事竟能因此判出34项罪名，而且每一项罪名据说都能判4年。老懂肯定不认罪，强调 是政治迫害。 我估计有读者看到这会有点懵，不是马上就要大选了吗，这会判有罪会坐牢吗？还能参选吗？ 暂时不会坐牢，老懂肯定要上诉，后面官司可能要打到州最高法院，时间目测要拖1年以上，在最终裁定做出之前老懂不用坐牢，也可以参加2024年底的 总统大选，因为美国没有规定罪犯不能当总统候选人。 那现在被判了34项罪名会影响老懂的选情吗？ 目前看来不会，甚至很可能是反向助攻。判罚结果出来后，特朗普的捐款网站瞬间就被挤爆，支持者们踊跃打钱，号召要帮老懂洗刷冤屈，打倒政 治迫害。 由此也能看出美国现在也挺割裂的，驴象两党站队严重，互相之间的打击报复也越来越不择手段。以前总统选举时的阴招最多就是道德攻击，搞臭 你，现在都开始司法定罪了，这要是选不上总统就要去坐牢了。 ...