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棕榈油:基本面仍需改善,价差表达为主,豆油:弱现实强预期格局,驱动不足
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. If inventory accumulation exceeds expectations in August - September or purchases from China and India remain poor, it may be seasonally short - allocated. Strategies like expanding the rapeseed - palm oil spread and reverse - arbitrage between September and January contracts are recommended. However, there are potential bullish factors in the second half of the year, and it's advisable to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [2][5]. - Soybean oil also has a pattern of weak current situation and strong future prospects. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis. There are opportunities to go long on soybean oil in the fourth quarter, while observing changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Positive news about US biodiesel obligations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, leading to a 4.86% weekly increase in the palm oil 09 contract [1]. - Soybean oil: The same positive factors in the US biodiesel policy and Middle East situation affected US soybeans and US soybean oil directly, resulting in a 4.75% weekly rise in the soybean oil 09 contract [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Production: June rainfall forecasts indicate continued dryness in Malaysia. Conservatively estimated, production may remain flat or slightly decrease to 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. The annual production in Malaysia in 2025 is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production than last year from July - August [2]. - Export and inventory: Export from the producing areas remains strong, with ITS reporting a 14.31% increase in exports in the first 20 days of June. India's palm oil imports in June may exceed 900,000 tons, leading to a strong expectation of inventory reduction in Malaysia in June [2]. - Market impact: The US biodiesel policy is positive. In the 2025/2026 season, about 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply will be withdrawn from the international market, causing a potential upward trend in the international oil market. There are differences in market expectations for palm oil production this year. If good yields are maintained from July - August, there may be significant inventory accumulation pressure from August - September [2]. Soybean oil - International market: The EPA significantly increased the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for biomass diesel in 2026, reversing market expectations. The price of US soybean oil has room to rise further. In the 2025/2026 season, the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by at least 1.5 million tons to 6.93 million tons, and the expected consumption in 2026 is over 10 million tons [3][4]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly due to high crushing rates, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 8,170 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,600 yuan/ton, a low of 8,140 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,536 yuan/ton, with a 4.86% increase [7]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 7,788 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,198 yuan/ton, a low of 7,780 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,156 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 9,324 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,750 yuan/ton, a low of 9,295 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,726 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% increase [7]. - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 4,035 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,144 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,034 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, with a 4.79% increase [7]. - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 52.55 cents/pound, reached a high of 56.47 cents/pound, a low of 52.55 cents/pound, and closed at 55.04 cents/pound, with a 7.52% increase [7]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline month - on - month, and inventory may decrease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise rapidly in the second quarter [9][11]. - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase compared to the same period last month [11]. - Price spread: The POGO spread is declining, indicating pressure on palm oil fundamentals. The Indian soybean - palm oil CNF spread is rising [11][12]. - Import: The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2025 have decreased by 270,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils have decreased by 540,000 tons [12].
油脂数据日报-20250620
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 05:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]
国投期货农产品日报-20250619
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 11:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: No rating [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, policies, geopolitical conflicts, and supply - demand relationships to provide insights into price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Beans 1 saw a decline with reduced positions. Domestic soybeans performed weaker than imported ones. In the medium - term, weather is the main price - influencing factor for imported soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy is bullish in the long - term, providing support to GBOT soybeans. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Due to the escalating Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil fluctuated widely, and US soybeans remained strong, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in positions and price. The strong performance of domestic oil futures may limit the rise of soybean meal. On June 19, CBOT was closed. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean planting. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose today, with 12 million tons of imported soybeans arriving in June. The oil mills' operating rate is high, and soybean meal is in a stock - building cycle. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the oil market and weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Driven by the biodiesel theme, soybean oil remained strong. The profit of soybean crushing improved, which is beneficial for China to purchase forward soybeans. The market showed a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. As the oil price on the futures market rose, the spot basis weakened. In the long - term, the biodiesel development is likely to support vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a critical growth period, and its price is supported by weather premiums and changes in the crude oil market. Canadian old - crop inventories are tight, and new - crop prospects are promising, so the medium - term price is likely to rise. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The main boost to rapeseed oil prices comes from import uncertainties. In the weather - sensitive period, rapeseed futures prices may rise in the medium - term but face short - term pressure from demand [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated upwards. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policies weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is around 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. After the wheat minimum purchase price policy was announced, the actual price increase was small. Corn traders expect future price increases. North and South port inventories are decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is falling, with inventories remaining stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of corn is not obvious, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures declined significantly in the near - term contracts and slightly in the far - term ones. The spot price remained stable. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices by reducing the inventory of breeding sows, but the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter in the medium - term due to high production capacity and the number of new - born piglets. Attention should be paid to the weight - reduction rhythm [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated within the range formed yesterday. Spot prices rose across the country. As egg prices entered a low - level range, bottom - fishing sentiment emerged, and demand was released in advance due to the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival. However, due to continuous capacity release and normal old - hen culling progress, the egg price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]
豆一、花生等农产品:价格走势及多空点位分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 06:42
Core Insights - The agricultural futures market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with specific focus on soybean, peanut, and oil prices influenced by both domestic and international factors [1] Soybean Market - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, while southern regions see steady prices for high-quality beans. Demand in sales areas is weak due to high temperatures affecting the preservation of soybean products, leading to cautious purchasing [1] - The domestic soybean supply is tight with weak demand, suggesting that there is insufficient driving force to pursue higher prices. The main contract for September is advised to be observed within the pressure range of 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support range of 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton [1] Peanut Market - Peanut stocks in production areas are low, with delays in imports and low profit margins affecting the arrival of imported peanuts. The planting area for the new season has slightly increased, reaching near historical highs [1] - Demand from oil mills is weak during the off-season, but rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies provide some support for peanut prices. A cautious long position is suggested with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY [1] Oil Market - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although the domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain unchanged with weak demand [1] - The main contract for September should be monitored with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY [1] Canola Oil Market - Canola oil prices are supported by rising crude oil prices, improving biodiesel blending profits and demand. However, high domestic canola oil inventories remain a concern [1] - The new season's canola planting is progressing well with expectations of increased production. Support is noted at 9200 - 9216 CNY and resistance at 9790 - 9798 CNY [1] Palm Oil Market - Palm oil prices are positively influenced by rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel proposals. Recent data shows a 4% decrease in palm oil production and a 17.7 - 26.3% increase in exports [1] - A cautious long position is recommended with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY [1]
豆粕周报:美国生柴政策利好,美豆及连粕震荡走高-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:45
Report Overview - Report Title: "US Biodiesel Policy Benefits, US Soybeans and Dalian Soybean Meal Fluctuate Higher" [1] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Report Author: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Group [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The June USDA report had a neutral impact, but the biodiesel policy stimulated short - term US soybeans to fluctuate strongly. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, and the spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose. Currently, downstream提货 is strong, and the spot shows fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, as oil mills start procurement, the rising Brazilian soybean premium will push up the import cost of Dalian soybean meal. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, which supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, continue to buy soybean meal 09 at low prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report was neutral, with no adjustments to new - crop US soybeans and old - crop South American soybeans. The market focused on US soybean exports and new - crop growth. Last week, US soybean export net sales were 11.9 tons, in line with expectations but down significantly from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - producing areas put pressure on US soybeans. However, the US biodiesel policy increased the blending volume in the next two years, boosting US soybeans [6]. - In China, 13.92 million tons of soybeans were imported in May. The large arrival of soybeans supported the oil mills' operating rate to return to normal, resulting in a loose spot supply of soybean meal. Meanwhile, strong downstream transactions and pick - ups supported the spot price. Oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories entered an accumulation cycle, with soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, and soybean meal inventory at 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 13, CBOT soybeans closed at 1068.50 cents per bushel, up 10.50 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.99%. M2509 soybean meal closed at 3041 yuan per ton, up 31 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.03% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and slightly higher temperatures in US soybean - producing areas. As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations; the planting rate was 90%, lower than the expected 91% [13][21]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 61,000 tons, down from 194,000 tons in the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 58,000 tons, up from 4,000 tons in the previous week [13][25]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of June 12, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 95%, up from 91% last week [13][28]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June 2025 are 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [34]. Supply - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), a total of 39 ships, about 2.535 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][37]. Demand - In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than the estimate. In the same week, soybean meal transactions increased to 1.7385 million tons, and pick - ups increased to 973,800 tons [13][42]. Inventory - In the 23rd week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.70% increase. The soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week, a 28.36% increase [13][45]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking items such as soybean meal basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][50][53].
棕榈油:美国生柴政策利好,带动油脂上行,豆油:压榨恢复较好,国内油脂弱于国际
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:52
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 棕榈油:美国生柴政策利好,带动油脂上行 豆油:压榨恢复较好,国内油脂弱于国际 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读: 上周观点及逻辑: 棕榈油:马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化,短期矛盾不明显,跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡筑底为主,棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.37%。周五晚上跟随美豆油大幅上涨,下周一预 计保持上行势头。 豆油:豆系市场驱动不明显,供应问题淡化,但中美缓和给美豆市场带来利多情绪,同时现货端有储 备消息扰动,豆油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 本周观点及逻辑: 棕榈油:马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平,印尼虽一季度库存维持低位,但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上,故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平,因 此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的 判断,但下跌过程中存在较强支撑,资金对于棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行 情等考虑 ...
【品种交易逻辑】中东战火引爆油价!极端情况下原油会冲向130美元?美国生柴政策远超市场预期,棕榈油还要涨多少?纯碱、豆粕、苯乙烯、甲醇等热门品种需要关注的重点有哪些?点击阅读文章。
news flash· 2025-06-13 15:28
中东战火引爆油价!极端情况下原油会冲向130美元?美国生柴政策远超市场预期,棕榈油还要涨多 少?纯碱、豆粕、苯乙烯、甲醇等热门品种需要关注的重点有哪些?点击阅读文章。 相关链接 品种交易逻辑 ...
豆粕周报:现货承压下跌,连粕震荡运行-20250603
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.
【期货热点追踪】市场传言美国增加小型炼厂豁免量,国内油脂系期货跳空低开!美国生柴政策仍是左右油脂价格的最大变量?
news flash· 2025-05-22 02:37
期货热点追踪 市场传言美国增加小型炼厂豁免量,国内油脂系期货跳空低开!美国生柴政策仍是左右油脂价格的最大 变量? 相关链接 ...
棕榈油研究周报:美国生柴政策扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧-20250519
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 07:57
2025/5/19 10:08 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国⽣柴政策扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国生柴政策扰动,棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 上海 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í í | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 4 月报告 | | 2. | 印度 SEA 4 月报告 | | 3. | 马棕5月预测 | | 4. | 其他重要资讯 ... | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 13 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dABm5MPGrK7lbUmFlSQxoA 2/19 https://mp. ...