Report Overview - Report Title: "US Biodiesel Policy Benefits, US Soybeans and Dalian Soybean Meal Fluctuate Higher" [1] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Report Author: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Group [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The June USDA report had a neutral impact, but the biodiesel policy stimulated short - term US soybeans to fluctuate strongly. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, and the spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose. Currently, downstream提货 is strong, and the spot shows fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, as oil mills start procurement, the rising Brazilian soybean premium will push up the import cost of Dalian soybean meal. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, which supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, continue to buy soybean meal 09 at low prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report was neutral, with no adjustments to new - crop US soybeans and old - crop South American soybeans. The market focused on US soybean exports and new - crop growth. Last week, US soybean export net sales were 11.9 tons, in line with expectations but down significantly from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - producing areas put pressure on US soybeans. However, the US biodiesel policy increased the blending volume in the next two years, boosting US soybeans [6]. - In China, 13.92 million tons of soybeans were imported in May. The large arrival of soybeans supported the oil mills' operating rate to return to normal, resulting in a loose spot supply of soybean meal. Meanwhile, strong downstream transactions and pick - ups supported the spot price. Oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories entered an accumulation cycle, with soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, and soybean meal inventory at 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 13, CBOT soybeans closed at 1068.50 cents per bushel, up 10.50 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.99%. M2509 soybean meal closed at 3041 yuan per ton, up 31 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.03% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and slightly higher temperatures in US soybean - producing areas. As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations; the planting rate was 90%, lower than the expected 91% [13][21]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 61,000 tons, down from 194,000 tons in the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 58,000 tons, up from 4,000 tons in the previous week [13][25]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of June 12, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 95%, up from 91% last week [13][28]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June 2025 are 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [34]. Supply - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), a total of 39 ships, about 2.535 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][37]. Demand - In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than the estimate. In the same week, soybean meal transactions increased to 1.7385 million tons, and pick - ups increased to 973,800 tons [13][42]. Inventory - In the 23rd week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.70% increase. The soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week, a 28.36% increase [13][45]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking items such as soybean meal basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][50][53].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化，短期矛盾不明显，跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡筑底为主，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.37%。周五晚上跟随美豆油大幅上涨，下周一预 计保持上行势头。 豆油：豆系市场驱动不明显，供应问题淡化，但中美缓和给美豆市场带来利多情绪，同时现货端有储 备消息扰动，豆油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平，印尼虽一季度库存维持低位，但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上，故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平，因 此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的 判断，但下跌过程中存在较强支撑，资金对于棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行 情等考虑 ...

中东战火引爆油价！极端情况下原油会冲向130美元？美国生柴政策远超市场预期，棕榈油还要涨多 少？纯碱、豆粕、苯乙烯、甲醇等热门品种需要关注的重点有哪些？点击阅读文章。 相关链接 品种交易逻辑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.

期货热点追踪 市场传言美国增加小型炼厂豁免量，国内油脂系期货跳空低开！美国生柴政策仍是左右油脂价格的最大 变量？ 相关链接 ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国⽣柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国生柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 上海 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í í | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 4 月报告 | | 2. | 印度 SEA 4 月报告 | | 3. | 马棕5月预测 | | 4. | 其他重要资讯 ... | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 13 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dABm5MPGrK7lbUmFlSQxoA 2/19 https://mp. ...