Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for President Trump to dismiss current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the implications this could have on the independence of the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy direction [3][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Independence - Trump has expressed ongoing interest in potentially firing Powell, citing "serious incompetence" related to a Federal Reserve overhaul, and has indicated he has a preferred successor in mind, to be announced in January [4][5]. - The current market has not reacted strongly to threats against the Federal Reserve's independence, but investors are preparing for a more divided and potentially weaker Federal Reserve under new leadership [8][9]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of 12 members, and Trump currently has appointed three members, with potential opportunities to influence more appointments in the future [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised among bond investors regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, fearing it could lead to aggressive rate cuts that might destabilize the market and increase inflation risks [5][10]. - The article notes that the sensitivity of central banks to economic shocks has increased, potentially leading to conflicts between monetary and fiscal policies, which could further complicate the economic landscape [6][11]. - Despite political pressures, some investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again early next year, which could support stock market performance [11].

转自：中国日报网 中国日报网12月29日电 美联社近日报道指出，由于对物价持续攀升及美国政府全面关税政策的影响深感忧虑，美国消费者对经济的信心出现动 摇。世界大型企业研究会12月23日发布的调查数据显示，12月美国消费者信心指数下降3.8点至89.1，已连续第5个月下滑。 美国"市场观察"网站刊文称，关税冲击、通胀加剧以及就业增长乏力给2025年的美国经济蒙上了厚厚的阴影。虽然第三季度美国经济以两年来 的最快速度增长，但调查却反映出了美国民众普遍的担忧和不满。 "市场观察"网站文章截图 文章认为，这种"脱节"源自关税、通胀等因素，部分原因还在于美国消费者把大部分的钱花在了必需品上，而没有花在想要的东西上。以第三 季度为例，大部分的支出用于医疗、保险、住房、水电费、汽油等价格大幅上涨的刚需领域；而第二季度消费支出的扩张，则很大程度上是美 国消费者为规避关税涨价而提前购买汽车等大件商品所致。 更令美国人恼火的是关税和通胀的叠加效应。今夏通胀本已趋缓，关税政策却再度推高物价。在承受了40年来最大的通胀飙升后，这波反弹进 一步加剧了美国人的负担。杰富瑞首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯指出："2024年通胀疲劳感本来正在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of interest rates oscillating within a balanced range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in monetary policy in 2026. The central bank is likely to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading to maintain interest rates within the 1.6 - 1.9% range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield. Although the Q4 monetary policy meeting did not explicitly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", it did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q1, especially if there is strong upward pressure on interest rates during market operation [2]. - The Q3 GDP data of the United States provided little incremental information, and the recovery of industrial production was limited. The Q3 GDP showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate increased only slightly. The US economy continued to be uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates [2]. - The decline in upstream price indicators continued to narrow. In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. Various industrial product prices and indicators also showed different trends [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to Understand "Financing Costs Operating at a Low Level" - The central bank's recent meetings mentioned "promoting the low - level operation of the overall social financing cost", indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate fluctuation range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield valuation in the 1.6 - 1.9% range may be the central bank's perceived balanced state, and the central bank may use various tools to maintain this range. The reduction of the "prevention of fund idling" statement in the Q4 monetary policy meeting also implies that the current interest rate trend is not likely to induce fund idling. The relatively low credit spread of primary - market credit bond issuance rates compared to treasury bond yields suggests that a further increase in treasury bond yields may affect social financing growth [2]. - Based on the above - mentioned balanced interest rate range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in 2026. Although the Q4 meeting did not clearly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", the concept of "using various tools" is consistent with the "reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts and other monetary policy tools" mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference, so the possibility of Q1 interest rate cuts is not excluded, especially when there is strong upward pressure on interest rates [2]. US Economic Data Analysis - The Q3 GDP data of the United States showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate of 2.3% increased only slightly. Personal consumption growth and import decline were the main drivers of GDP. The PCE provided limited incremental information on the current inflation situation. The US economy remained uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates. Despite the impact of tariff hikes, the cumulative import volume in the United States from January to September 2025 still increased by more than 7% year - on - year due to pre - stocking. Industrial production recovered to a post - pandemic high but was still below the historical peak [2]. Upstream Price Indicator Analysis - In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 0.05% week - on - week and decreased 22.18% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased 1.93% week - on - week and increased 13.58% year - on - year. In the week of December 19, the edible agricultural product price index increased 0.20% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.81% [2]. - The domestic cement price index decreased 0.17% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased 1.60% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased 0.05% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased 6.02% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased 0.08% week - on - week. In the week of December 19, the production material price index remained flat week - on - week and decreased 1.07% year - on - year [2]. - The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased 3.24% and 3.08% week - on - week respectively. The average spot price of LME copper increased 2.97% week - on - week; the average spot price of aluminum increased 2.12% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased 0.19% week - on - week [2]. - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 331,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2].

中金指出，目前黄金上涨至4500美元/盎司附近，已经提前达到我们的长期价格预测。基于当前基本面 指标数值，其实黄金价格已经明显高于模型计算的短期估值中枢，可能存在一定泡沫。由于美联储政策 与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标与模型拟合 后，市场波动或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，我们建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势 改变时点。我们预期在2026年初，由于美国通胀持续上行，美国增长边际改善，美联储可能放缓宽松节 奏，或对黄金表现形成阶段性压制。但是再往前看，随着2026年5月新的美联储主席就职，2026H2美国 通胀迎来下行拐点，美联储可能再次加速降息，为黄金继续上涨提供新的支持。因此未来黄金牛市可能 不是单边行情，而会跟随美联储政策与美国经济动向出现波动。上述逻辑同样适用于白银等商品。由于 白银的市场规模更小，流动性相对更低，价格波动幅度可能会大于黄金。 ...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1% as of 9:45 a.m. Eastern. The S&P 500 index was up less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%. Markets will close at 1 p.m. ET for Christmas Eve and are closed for Christmas. Markets will reopen for a full day of trading on Friday, however volumes are expected to be light this week with the holiday and most investors having closed out their positions for the year. Much of the focus remains on the state of the U.S. economy and where the Federal Reserve w ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a dichotomy characterized by "growth in summer" and "employment in winter," indicating a significant structural divide in economic performance [1][4][18]. Group 1: GDP Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, while the year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.3%, still below the previous year's 2.8% [2][25]. - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth included personal consumption and net exports, contributing 2.4 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [4][27]. - There is a notable divergence in economic performance, with AI-related investments showing strong growth while traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak despite interest rate cuts [11][35]. Group 2: Investment Trends - AI-related investments, although experiencing a decline in growth rate in Q3, remain the fastest-growing investment category, contributing 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption contributed 1.1 percentage points [7][30]. - The volatility in AI investment reflects a normalization after strong growth, highlighting the difference between "committed investment" and "realized investment" [9][31]. - Traditional sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as durable goods consumption and residential investment, continue to show declining year-on-year growth, raising doubts about the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy [11][35]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - Private consumption is strong overall, but there is a significant disparity within consumption categories, with actual disposable income growth slowing down, leading to increased reliance on wealth effects, declining savings rates, and borrowing [12][37]. - The spending structure shows that healthcare, international travel, and entertainment are the largest contributors, while broader service demand categories like transportation and dining out have not shown significant seasonal improvement [40][41]. - Excluding healthcare and international travel, the growth in narrow service consumption remains stable but does not reflect the overall service sector's rebound, indicating a widening gap in consumption performance [41]. Group 4: Employment Dynamics - The rapid economic growth in Q3 is juxtaposed with rising unemployment rates and a downward trend in non-farm payroll additions, indicating a concentration of growth in sectors with lower labor demand [18][42]. - The divergence in economic indicators necessitates careful interpretation, as productivity improvements may not be immediately evident, and labor market weakness remains a significant concern [20][45]. - The economic outlook for late 2025 mirrors early 2025, with challenges in distinguishing the effects of policy changes and economic stimuli on growth and employment [22][46].

As stocks climb to record highs heading into the year’s final stretch, gold continues to surge, powering above $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday to cap one of its strongest years in modern history. The run-up is striking not just for its scale — gold is up roughly 70% in 2025 — but also because it’s happening alongside a rally in stocks. Why gold prices and stock prices are rising at the same time On the optimistic side, investors are betting that the U.S. economy will remain strong into 2026, corporate ear ...

报告导读： 2025 年三季度美国经济数据超预期，主要源于个人消费韧性、公共支出增 长，以及出口贡献提升。但是表现出三重" K "型分化的特征，分别为个人收入消费分化、 大小企业景气度分层和新老经济分化。预计四季度美国经济短期冲击后，后续整体韧性依 然较强。预防式降息周期仍将持续，维持 2026 年 2-3 次降息的观点。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 美国经济的韧性与三重"K"型分化——2025年三季度美国经济数据点评；报告日期： 2025.12.24 报告作者： 汪浩（分析师），登记编号：S0880521120002 梁中华（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040019 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 2025 年三季度美国 GDP ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅 增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增速创两年来最快。消 费支出强劲成为增长的最大推手，当季增速大幅加快至3.5%。 三季度核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。另外，美国10月核心资本品 订单与出货量双双回升。评：美国三季度GDP数据大幅超预期， 并且产品订单和出货量也回升，显示经济依然较为强劲，提升 风险偏好。降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑，关注黄金波动对白 银的影响，注意盈利保护。 【短评-PTA】PTA装置周均负荷为74.8%，周环比持平,PTA 周度产量为141.1万吨，环比持平；TA社会库存在298.61万吨， 较上一统计周期下降5.78万吨。评：近端检修较多，12月平衡 表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归,1月也没有累库压力, 较此前预期 好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐 步改善；另外明年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好。低位偏 多思路。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证 ...

The U.S. economy made an unexpectedly strong showing in the third quarter of this year — July through September — with growth clocking in far above forecasts. If the numbers feel out of sync with many Americans’ day-to-day reality, that disconnect is largely a matter of timing. Here's what to know about the new data. A delayed report points to earlier strength, and shows inflation building alongside growth The record-long government shutdown this fall delayed the Commerce Department’s release schedule ...