Core Insights - Despite a short-term increase in revenue, the fiscal outlook for the United States remains challenging [1] Group 1 - The short-term revenue growth is noted, indicating a temporary positive trend in financial performance [1] - Long-term fiscal challenges are highlighted, suggesting potential difficulties in sustaining revenue growth [1] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of fiscal policies and economic conditions to navigate future challenges [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The binding of the Trump administration's tariff and tax - cut policies will become more obvious, and it is highly likely that the two policies will either pass or be rejected simultaneously [2][11] - The US employment market is operating stably. In May, employment signals were contradictory, but non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the weekly wage index growth rate is close to the pre - pandemic level, which may not change the downward trend of core inflation [2][14] - The focus of monetary policy lies in the persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - CBO estimates that the OBBBA may lead to a reduction of $3.7 trillion in federal fiscal revenue and $1.3 trillion in expenditure from 2025 - 2034, along with $55.1 billion in debt costs, resulting in an increase of about $3 trillion in government debt. However, tariffs may reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion from 2025 - 2035, but will also cause negative economic impacts and inflation in the next two years [2][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy faces legal challenges, and the OBBBA is still under discussion in the Senate. The binding of tariff and tax - cut policies will be stronger [2][11] - In May, the US employment market had contradictory signals. ADP employment increased slightly, while non - farm employment grew strongly. Non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the non - farm hourly wage growth rate was stable [2][14] - From June 2 - 7, 2025, agricultural product prices mostly declined, and commodity prices showed mixed trends. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.55% week - on - week, and the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export volume, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [22][28][29] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [83][85][87] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and production material price index, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [94][96][100] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [147][151]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant decline in gold prices, attributed primarily to the strengthening of the US dollar, which has reduced gold's appeal to holders of other currencies [1][3] - Gold prices fell to $3306.78 per ounce, down 1.07% from an opening price of $3343.63, with a daily high of $3349.78 and a low of $3292.38 [1][3] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 99.42, with a daily increase of 0.4%, marking its best performance in nearly two weeks [3] Group 2 - Investor caution is heightened due to uncertainties surrounding the US fiscal outlook, with concerns that government debt may increase by an additional $3.8 trillion over the next decade [3] - Despite worries about rising government debt, there has not been a surge in safe-haven buying of gold, as the market is more focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led traders to bet on a potential resumption of interest rate cuts after September, but gold may continue to face pressure from the high interest rate environment in the meantime [3]

Core Viewpoint - The postponement of high tariffs on the EU by President Trump has eased market concerns over global trade conflicts, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, multiple macroeconomic risks continue to limit the downside potential for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX gold is currently trading at $3338.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, with a daily high of $3356.00 and a low of $3329.30 [2]. - The opening price today was $3355.60, indicating a downward trend in the short term [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the dollar [1]. - Concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to support gold prices despite short-term declines [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise by June 2025 due to factors such as the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by Asian countries, and trade tensions [1]. - Key risk factors to monitor include the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, trade negotiations between the U.S. and other major economies, and changes in market expectations regarding the dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

Group 1 - Global investors are reducing their exposure to the US dollar due to concerns about the fiscal outlook [1] - Selling the dollar has become the most compelling trade since 2025, surpassing the appeal of purchasing government bonds [1] - The euro is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of the reduced demand for the dollar [1]