Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In June, Uzbekistan's central bank was the largest net buyer of gold, while Kazakhstan's International Bank also showed significant gold purchases. Singapore's Monetary Authority was the only net seller, selling 6 tons of gold that month [2] - As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China had gold reserves of 2300.41 tons, an increase of 1.86 tons month-on-month, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation [2] - In the first half of the year, global central bank gold purchases totaled 123 tons, slightly lower than the 130 tons recorded in the same period of 2024. The National Bank of Poland was the largest net buyer in 2025 so far, with net purchases of 67 tons [2] Group 2: Gold Price Trends - On August 8, gold prices surged, reaching a historical high, with COMEX gold futures trading at $3484.5 per ounce and peaking at $3534.1 per ounce during the day [2] - Over the past week, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with a more than 4% increase from July 31 to August 7 [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent tariff news has heightened risk aversion, supporting gold prices. Additionally, disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, potentially by 50 basis points [6] - Concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, exacerbated by President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve, may further support gold prices [6] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a more positive outlook for gold, driven by expectations of a weakening U.S. economy and the resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [7]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by Trump's repeated tariff threats and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding market expectations, with gold prices approaching the $3400 mark [2][3] - The gold market sentiment will turn positive as the trading on the short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the pricing logic of a weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle [5] - Gold has a long - term bullish trend. The slowdown of the US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the long - term bullish foundation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Putin and Trump may meet next week [4] - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, reaching a three - month high, and the year - on - year growth rates of imports and exports both accelerated [4] - S&P Global confirmed China's long - term credit rating as A+ and said that China's strong fiscal stimulus measures would maintain economic growth resilience [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, exceeding the expected 221,000 [4] Price Logic - Gold prices rose slightly in the Asian trading session on Thursday but failed to break through the $3400/ounce mark. Trump's new tariff threats reignited market concerns about global trade conflicts, and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding expectations increased short - term safe - haven demand [5] - The expectation of the Fed restarting interest - rate cuts in September supported gold prices and pressured the US dollar, but the positive risk sentiment in global stock markets limited the increase in gold prices [5] Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3300, 3500], and for spot London silver is [36, 40] [8] - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change, and the accelerated pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest - rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, amplifying price elasticity [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of following market trends and avoiding emotional trading, particularly in the context of gold and oil prices influenced by recent economic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. - Recent economic data from the U.S. has been weak, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has contributed to a rise in gold prices [1][2]. - The ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and India, have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 2 - Gold prices have shown significant upward momentum, reaching a high of $3385.26 per ounce, with a notable increase of approximately 0.3% on August 4, marking three consecutive days of gains [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary policy easing is expected to weaken the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, creating favorable conditions for sustained increases in gold prices [2]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and developments in U.S. trade policy, as these factors could significantly impact gold market dynamics [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a slow upward trend, with key resistance levels identified at $3385 and potential support around $3340 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend selling on rebounds near resistance levels and buying on dips near support levels to manage risk effectively [5]. - The market is characterized by volatility, and traders are encouraged to maintain strict stop-loss measures and avoid holding losing positions [5].

Core Insights - Despite ongoing global trade conflicts creating persistent uncertainty, nearly two-thirds of experts still anticipate an improvement in the German economy [1] Group 1 - The ZEW economic sentiment indicator reflects a cautious optimism among experts regarding Germany's economic outlook [1] - The expectation of economic improvement suggests potential investment opportunities in sectors that may benefit from a recovering economy [1] - The report highlights the resilience of the German economy amidst external challenges, indicating a possible stabilization in key economic metrics [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to weaken as market concerns over global trade conflicts diminish following Trump's decision to delay high tariffs on the EU until July 9 [1] - The market's reaction to the delay in tariffs has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates has led traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, with expectations now shifting towards a pause until the July meeting [2] Group 2 - Trump announced the cancellation of the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods set to take effect on June 1, following a conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] - The extension of trade negotiations until July 9 indicates a potential easing of trade tensions between the US and the EU [2] - Gold prices faced pressure after a significant spike the previous week, with current support levels noted around $3,330 or $3,320, and resistance levels at $3,360 or $3,390 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The postponement of high tariffs on the EU by President Trump has eased market concerns over global trade conflicts, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, multiple macroeconomic risks continue to limit the downside potential for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX gold is currently trading at $3338.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, with a daily high of $3356.00 and a low of $3329.30 [2]. - The opening price today was $3355.60, indicating a downward trend in the short term [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the dollar [1]. - Concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to support gold prices despite short-term declines [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise by June 2025 due to factors such as the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by Asian countries, and trade tensions [1]. - Key risk factors to monitor include the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, trade negotiations between the U.S. and other major economies, and changes in market expectations regarding the dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

点击上图 ▲立即报名 商务部召开外资企业圆桌会 4月 23日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国4月Markit综合PMI初值51.2，为2023年12月以来的最低值，预期52，前值53。其中，新订单指数从 3月的53.3降至52.5；产出价格环比上涨，为去年3月以来的最高。美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4。服务出口（包括 旅游及其他跨境服务）下降幅度为2023年1月以来最大，尤其显著抑制了需求增长。 4月 23日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开外资企业圆桌会，就美加征关税给在华外资企业投资经营带来的影响与企业交流。 会议由中国外商投资企业协会主办，80余家外资企业和在华外国商会代表参会。财政部、商务部、海关总署、国家药监局有关司局负责人参会并 回应企业反映的问题诉求。 凌激表示，希望外资企业发出理性声音，坚定信心、克服困难、化危为机，共同战胜单边主义和保护主义。中国将继续扩大高水平对外开放，努 力保障产供链稳定畅通，推动解决外资企业问题诉求。与会企业代表表示，中国的外资政策持续、稳定、可预期，愿继续对华投资，深化互利合 作，共同应对挑战。（央视新闻） ｜点评｜ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends with poor trading opportunities, recommend to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Logs: Not clearly rated by stars [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is reacting) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as global trade conflicts, climate, and production - consumption relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions, mainly suggesting waiting and seeing for most commodities [2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline sharply due to China's counter - tariffs on the US and Trump's threat to impose additional 50% tariffs on China. The short - term macro - risk is the main market factor [2] - Domestic cotton spot trading is okay, but the cotton yarn market has few transactions, and the yarn price has dropped by 200 - 300. China's procurement of US cotton in 24/25 has been cautious, and future procurement is basically stagnant [2] - Due to domestic cotton production and high yields in Brazil and Australia, China's dependence on US cotton in 24/25 is low, and the tariff on US cotton has little impact on domestic supply [2] - Global trade conflicts will have a huge impact on future cotton demand, and China's cotton demand may be negatively affected. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may remain weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The continuous decline of crude oil is negative for US sugar. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugarcane yield per unit may decline due to less rainfall in the first quarter, which is positive for US sugar. However, the high sugar - alcohol ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, and Brazil's sugar production may still be high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar followed the correction of commodities. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, the inventory has decreased year - on - year due to the fast sales rhythm, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the imports of sugar and syrup have decreased significantly, which is positive for Zhengzhou sugar. However, the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants increased, the trading volume of first - and second - grade apples increased, and the price of flaky red apples rose. In the northwest production area, the remaining supply is limited, and the merchants mainly pack and ship their own goods [4] - The arrival at the wholesale market increased, and the overall trading was stable. The cold - storage destocking progress is fast this year, and the apple inventory is lower than the same period. With the approaching of May Day, the demand for apples enters the peak season, and the spot price still has room to rise [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the trade war, RU, NR, and BR continued to plummet. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the import price of foreign butadiene was stable. The price of raw materials in Thailand dropped sharply [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and the Yunnan production area in China has entered the trial - tapping period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants are under maintenance [5] - The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline last week, the terminal market sales were poor, and the inventory pressure of finished products still exists. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 62.07 tons this week. The market is driven by trade policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to be bearish and hold cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp rebounded slightly today, but the overall commodity market is still suffering. The subsequent imports from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 3, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 202.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons and 0.4% [6] - The port inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the external price is relatively firm, the demand is generally average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. The spot price remains stable. Although the external price has been adjusted down, it will take time to affect the shipping volume. It is expected that the arrival volume of New Zealand logs in April will still be high [7] - The port delivery volume increased month - on - month, but the total volume is still low, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected. The port log inventory has decreased, but due to weak demand, there is still some inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]