8月8日，世界黄金协会发布报告称，6月，全球央行持续青睐黄金。数据显示，2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月环比小幅上升。 全球央行购金售金情况统计图片来源：世界黄金协会 世界黄金协会分析称，6月，乌兹别克斯坦央行是当月最大的净买家；哈萨克斯坦国际银行在6月的购金规模同样显著；新加坡金融管理局（MAS）是唯 一的净卖家，当月净售黄金6吨。值得关注的是，截至7月底，中国人民银行黄金储备量为2300.41吨，环比增加1.86吨，连续九个月增持黄金。 上述报告介绍，今年上半年，全球央行购金总量（123吨）略低于2024年的同期水平（130吨）。波兰国家银行是2025年迄今为止最大的净买家，净购金67 吨，其次是阿塞拜疆国家石油基金和哈萨克斯坦国家银行。 值得关注的是，8月8日金价出现大涨，一度升至历史高位。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间8月8日18点30分，COMEX（纽约商品交易所）黄金期货价报3484.5美元/盎司，当日盘中最高价一度至3534.1美元/盎司，达 到历史高位。 截至北京时间8月8日18点30分的COMEX黄金期货价格走势图片来源：Wind 近一周以来，金价整体价格呈上升之 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-8 关税担忧反复，⾦价波动加剧 特朗普关税威胁反复，初次申请失业⾦⼈数超市场预期，⾦价冲击3 400美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1) 罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普或在下周举行会面 2) 中国7月美元计价出口同比增长7.2%，为三个月新高。 关税缓和期效应持续，助推中国7月进出口同比增幅双提 速，分别创下一年和三个月新高。 3) 评级机构标普全球周四确认中国的长期信用评级为A+， 并称中国强有力的财政刺激措施将在房地产行业和关税压力 的逆风中保持经济增长的韧性 4) 美国至8月2日当周初请失业金人数 22.6万人，预期22. 1万人，前值由21.8万人修正为21.9万人。 价格逻辑： 金价在周四亚洲交易时段维持小幅上涨，但未能有效突破34 00美元/盎司关口。美国总统特朗普近期接连宣布新的关税 威胁（涉及瑞士39%关税、印度额外关税、日本以及半导体 和药品关税），重新点燃了市场对全球贸易冲突的担忧。 此外，周四晚间公布数据显示8月初美国初次申请失业金人 数超出市场预期，短线避险需求升温推动金价走高。 此前降息预期与美元疲软提 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to weaken as market concerns over global trade conflicts diminish following Trump's decision to delay high tariffs on the EU until July 9 [1] - The market's reaction to the delay in tariffs has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates has led traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, with expectations now shifting towards a pause until the July meeting [2] Group 2 - Trump announced the cancellation of the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods set to take effect on June 1, following a conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] - The extension of trade negotiations until July 9 indicates a potential easing of trade tensions between the US and the EU [2] - Gold prices faced pressure after a significant spike the previous week, with current support levels noted around $3,330 or $3,320, and resistance levels at $3,360 or $3,390 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The postponement of high tariffs on the EU by President Trump has eased market concerns over global trade conflicts, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, multiple macroeconomic risks continue to limit the downside potential for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX gold is currently trading at $3338.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, with a daily high of $3356.00 and a low of $3329.30 [2]. - The opening price today was $3355.60, indicating a downward trend in the short term [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the dollar [1]. - Concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to support gold prices despite short-term declines [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise by June 2025 due to factors such as the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by Asian countries, and trade tensions [1]. - Key risk factors to monitor include the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, trade negotiations between the U.S. and other major economies, and changes in market expectations regarding the dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

点击上图 ▲立即报名 商务部召开外资企业圆桌会 4月 23日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国4月Markit综合PMI初值51.2，为2023年12月以来的最低值，预期52，前值53。其中，新订单指数从 3月的53.3降至52.5；产出价格环比上涨，为去年3月以来的最高。美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4。服务出口（包括 旅游及其他跨境服务）下降幅度为2023年1月以来最大，尤其显著抑制了需求增长。 4月 23日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开外资企业圆桌会，就美加征关税给在华外资企业投资经营带来的影响与企业交流。 会议由中国外商投资企业协会主办，80余家外资企业和在华外国商会代表参会。财政部、商务部、海关总署、国家药监局有关司局负责人参会并 回应企业反映的问题诉求。 凌激表示，希望外资企业发出理性声音，坚定信心、克服困难、化危为机，共同战胜单边主义和保护主义。中国将继续扩大高水平对外开放，努 力保障产供链稳定畅通，推动解决外资企业问题诉求。与会企业代表表示，中国的外资政策持续、稳定、可预期，愿继续对华投资，深化互利合 作，共同应对挑战。（央视新闻） ｜点评｜ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends with poor trading opportunities, recommend to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Logs: Not clearly rated by stars [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is reacting) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as global trade conflicts, climate, and production - consumption relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions, mainly suggesting waiting and seeing for most commodities [2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline sharply due to China's counter - tariffs on the US and Trump's threat to impose additional 50% tariffs on China. The short - term macro - risk is the main market factor [2] - Domestic cotton spot trading is okay, but the cotton yarn market has few transactions, and the yarn price has dropped by 200 - 300. China's procurement of US cotton in 24/25 has been cautious, and future procurement is basically stagnant [2] - Due to domestic cotton production and high yields in Brazil and Australia, China's dependence on US cotton in 24/25 is low, and the tariff on US cotton has little impact on domestic supply [2] - Global trade conflicts will have a huge impact on future cotton demand, and China's cotton demand may be negatively affected. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may remain weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The continuous decline of crude oil is negative for US sugar. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugarcane yield per unit may decline due to less rainfall in the first quarter, which is positive for US sugar. However, the high sugar - alcohol ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, and Brazil's sugar production may still be high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar followed the correction of commodities. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, the inventory has decreased year - on - year due to the fast sales rhythm, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the imports of sugar and syrup have decreased significantly, which is positive for Zhengzhou sugar. However, the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants increased, the trading volume of first - and second - grade apples increased, and the price of flaky red apples rose. In the northwest production area, the remaining supply is limited, and the merchants mainly pack and ship their own goods [4] - The arrival at the wholesale market increased, and the overall trading was stable. The cold - storage destocking progress is fast this year, and the apple inventory is lower than the same period. With the approaching of May Day, the demand for apples enters the peak season, and the spot price still has room to rise [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the trade war, RU, NR, and BR continued to plummet. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the import price of foreign butadiene was stable. The price of raw materials in Thailand dropped sharply [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and the Yunnan production area in China has entered the trial - tapping period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants are under maintenance [5] - The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline last week, the terminal market sales were poor, and the inventory pressure of finished products still exists. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 62.07 tons this week. The market is driven by trade policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to be bearish and hold cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp rebounded slightly today, but the overall commodity market is still suffering. The subsequent imports from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 3, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 202.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons and 0.4% [6] - The port inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the external price is relatively firm, the demand is generally average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. The spot price remains stable. Although the external price has been adjusted down, it will take time to affect the shipping volume. It is expected that the arrival volume of New Zealand logs in April will still be high [7] - The port delivery volume increased month - on - month, but the total volume is still low, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected. The port log inventory has decreased, but due to weak demand, there is still some inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]