Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by recent U.S. economic data and upcoming inflation reports, with prices currently around $4205 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are under pressure due to a three-year low in U.S. initial jobless claims, but are supported by interest rate cut expectations and buying interest [1]. - The market is awaiting key U.S. inflation data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, which is expected to influence gold prices [1]. - Current trading conditions indicate a potential for gold prices to rise to $4260 or higher if inflation pressures ease, while a contrary outcome may lead to further price adjustments [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily gold price remains supported by moving averages, indicating a strong market position without signs of weakness [2]. - The Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe show a narrowing range, with upper and lower limits at $4230 and $4180, respectively, while key levels to watch are $4265 above and $4150 below [2]. - The overall trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above $4150, with a potential new upward movement if prices can stabilize above $4250 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the 7.05 mark against the US Dollar (USD), with concerns about the possibility of breaking the 7.00 level by year-end being raised. However, the expectation remains that the CNY will end the year around 7.05, with a low probability of breaking 7.00 [1][8]. Group 1: Baseline Scenario - The strong settlement power observed daily supports the expectation of a CNY appreciation, although the pace is expected to be moderate. The focus this week is on the realization of the "three-price unity" for the USDCNY central parity, which has been maintained for over a year [2][8]. - The baseline scenario predicts that the USDCNY central parity will be around 7.05 by year-end, corresponding to a closing range of 7.04-7.06 [8][12]. Group 2: Right Tail Risks - Potential upward risks for the CNY include factors that could drive a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), such as a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stance leading to a significant market reaction. Current market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with an additional 2.3 cuts anticipated next year. If the December dot plot indicates only one cut for 2026, both the dollar rates and DXY could rebound sharply [6][10]. - Additionally, stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls in October and November could also contribute to upward pressure on the USD [12]. Group 3: Left Tail Risks - Conversely, if the DXY falls below the 100-day moving average towards the previous low of around 97, the CNY may also decline. Potential triggers for this scenario include a dovish FOMC stance indicating more than two rate cuts for 2026, or significant dovish comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair [6][12]. - Other factors that could lead to a weaker CNY include disappointing non-farm payroll results and rising unemployment rates, as well as a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could strengthen the Euro [12].

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations[4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in September[4] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[4] Group 2: Wage Growth and Job Quality - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, down from 0.4% in August[4] - The quality of non-farm data is questioned, as the response rate for the survey was 80.2%, significantly above historical averages, indicating higher reliability[4][18] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a December rate cut fluctuated, with probabilities rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from Fed officials[6][8] - The FOMC's internal division on rate cuts shows a support-to-opposition ratio of approximately 4:5[7] Group 4: Broader Economic Indicators - High-frequency ADP data showed weakness in October, while initial jobless claims remained stable, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market[5][26] - The U.S. government announced a trade framework to lower food tariffs, while Japan proposed a fiscal stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market has experienced a decline for four consecutive trading days, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent statements regarding interest rate adjustments, leading to a decrease in market sentiment [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized the need to "proceed slowly" with interest rate cuts, causing the probability of a rate cut in December to plummet from nearly 100% to 42% [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar, alongside rising holding costs for gold, has diminished the attractiveness of gold investments [1] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - The end of the longest government shutdown in US history is expected to bring delayed economic data, including the September non-farm payrolls, which will be crucial for guiding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - The market anticipates an increase in non-farm employment figures for September compared to August's 22,000, which could influence December's interest rate expectations and subsequent economic indicators [3] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The upcoming release of significant economic data is seen as a potential catalyst for a new wave of activity in the gold market, with analysts preparing to provide strategies for investors [3][5] - Various promotional offers are available for new customers, including bonuses and gifts, aimed at enhancing investment opportunities in gold [3][5]

Market Overview - The market sentiment has shifted significantly, with investors reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] - The current trading price of gold is around $4030, continuing its downward trend due to the strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1][2] Federal Reserve Influence - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market perceptions of maintaining high interest rates, further diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1][2] - Market pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to approximately 45%, down from 60% the previous week, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a clear downtrend, with a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern indicating a weak short-term outlook [3] - The price is currently operating below the five-day moving average, suggesting continued bearish momentum [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a bearish outlook, with specific entry points for short positions around the 10-day moving average at $4055 and potential targets at $4005 and $3976 [5][6] - For potential long positions, a buy strategy is suggested around $3975-$3980, with targets set at $4000-$4010 [6] Key Levels - Resistance levels are identified at $4055, $4075, and $4095, while support levels are at $4005, $3976, and $3930 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have stabilized, with some gold stores continuing to see price increases, indicating a mixed market trend for gold retail [1][4]. Price Summary - The highest gold price is reported at 1110 CNY per gram for Lao Miao Gold, which increased by 4 CNY, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1011 CNY per gram, resulting in a price gap of 99 CNY [1]. - Other notable gold prices include: - Liufu Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Chow Tai Fook: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Liufu: 1070 CNY per gram (increased by 9 CNY) [1] - Cai Bai: 1058 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Platinum prices have also seen a significant increase, rising by 19 CNY to 633 CNY per gram [4]. Recovery Price Overview - The gold recovery prices have increased, with notable prices as follows: - Cai Bai: 855.00 CNY per gram [4] - Zhou Shengsheng: 844.30 CNY per gram [4] - Zhou Dafu: 853.60 CNY per gram [4] - Lao Fengxiang: 862.50 CNY per gram [4] International Market Insights - The spot gold price reached a peak of 3783.55 USD per ounce before settling at 3759.40 USD per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.30% [6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by the U.S. PCE data, which met expectations and strengthened market predictions for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [6]. - Current market expectations indicate an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a 31.5% chance for December [6]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data releases may further impact gold market volatility, especially amid ongoing government funding negotiations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent shifts in the U.S. labor market, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape [8][12][24]. Deep Dive Topic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial restructuring and the signals from central authorities regarding adjustments in industrial structure, aiming to understand the pathways from the previous five-year plan and how the new plan will be implemented [8]. Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading." The employment market's weakness raises questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A recent surge in overseas risk-free interest rates has triggered a sell-off in global sovereign bonds, prompting discussions on the reasons and sustainability of this market behavior [12][24]. - The article critiques the misconception that the decline in exports is due to a "rush to export," asserting that the August trade data reflects broader economic conditions rather than a simple market reaction [17]. High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of August's CPI indicates that core inflation is no longer the primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening trend in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on commodity price increases suggests that while upstream price hikes have positively impacted PPI, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI [18].