Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of weak non-farm payroll data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the broader economic outlook, raising questions about whether the upcoming non-farm report will significantly underperform expectations [1] Group 1 - The article highlights concerns regarding the recent signals of weakness in the U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the labor market may not be as robust as previously thought [1] - There is speculation about how the Federal Reserve will respond to the non-farm payroll data, particularly in light of the ongoing economic challenges and political tensions with the White House [1] - The article poses questions about the potential for the non-farm payroll report to come in significantly below expectations, which could have broader implications for economic policy and market reactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected negative ADP employment report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [1][2][8]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. non-farm payroll for June will show an increase of 106,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [3][5]. - The range of predictions from Wall Street institutions for the June non-farm payroll varies between 70,000 and 160,000 jobs [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Scenarios - If the non-farm payroll data is weak, the likelihood of a rate cut in July increases, while strong data would eliminate that possibility [2][10]. - Morgan Stanley outlines five potential scenarios based on the non-farm payroll results, with varying impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job growth figures [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - A non-farm payroll result below 85,000 could signal recession risks, while results above 145,000 may lead to a reassessment of economic growth trajectories [10][17].

- FE HETER | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 60955-11 6095HI | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,警惕追高风 | | | 股指 | IC2507 | 避险板块坚挺,股指整体向下调整 | 险,可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取权 | | | | IM2509 | | 利金。 | | | | T2509 | | 单边策略上短期建议逢调整适当配置多单,接近前 | | | 国债 | TF2509 | 月初资金面延续转松,期债情绪偏强,不过行情暂时缺乏突破 | 高注意止盈,关注经济数据与资金面动向。适当关 | | 金融 | | 609551 | 前局动力 | 注做陡曲线。 | | | | | | 关注美国非农数据若不及预期或进一步提振美联储 | | | 贵金属 | AU2508 | 静待美国非农数据公布 市场博弈美联储提早降息 贵金属持续走 | 宽松转向可能,黄金有望回到3400美元上方;白 | | | | AG2508 | 量 | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is a crucial indicator of the U.S. economy's health and significantly influences global financial markets [1][2] - The non-farm payroll report includes key metrics such as non-agricultural employment numbers, unemployment rates, and average hourly earnings, reflecting the employment status in the non-agricultural sector [2] - The release of non-farm data often leads to substantial market volatility, affecting asset prices like the U.S. dollar, gold, and bond yields [2] Group 2 - The schedule for the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data in 2025 has been outlined, with specific dates and times for each month's report [3] - Non-farm data is typically released on the first Friday of each month, with adjustments for daylight saving time affecting the release times [4] - The July 2025 non-farm data will be released on Thursday, July 3, due to the Independence Day holiday [4] Group 3 - The company, as a leading financial trading service platform, aims to provide professional services to help investors navigate the opportunities presented by non-farm data releases [5] - The company's team of experienced analysts offers detailed market analysis and real-time tracking of market dynamics surrounding non-farm data releases [5] - The company's MT5 trading platform is designed to ensure smooth order execution and quick transactions during periods of high market activity following non-farm data releases [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significance of U.S. non-farm payroll data as a key economic indicator that influences trading opportunities, particularly in the gold market [1][3] - The 2025 U.S. non-farm payroll data release schedule is outlined, with specific dates and market focus for each month, highlighting the importance of these reports for economic forecasting [2] - The relationship between non-farm data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions is discussed, indicating that weak employment data could lead to increased expectations for rate cuts, which in turn would support gold prices [3] Group 2 - The impact of non-farm data on gold prices is twofold: direct price movements based on the data's strength or weakness, and market sentiment leading up to the release, which can cause preemptive price changes [5] - The article notes that significant price fluctuations in gold can occur around non-farm data releases, with potential short-term movements of $20 to $50 per ounce, presenting opportunities for investors [5]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税扰动多变，铜铝缺乏方向 ——铜铝周报2025.06.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：中美贸易谈判释放利多信号，美国最新非农数据好于预 | 沪铜2507合约 | | | | 期，市场降息预期下降。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：国内5月电解铜产量超预期增加，但预计从6月开始受检 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | | 修计划影响持续下降。受美国关税政策影响，LME去库延续，全球库 | | | | 铜 | 存继续转移至美国市场，结构性紧张或支撑铜价。 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | | 76000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | ...

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Employment Data - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 jobs and slightly down from the revised previous value of 147,000 jobs[1][15] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's rate[1][15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and matching the previous value after revision[1][15] Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 48,000 jobs in May, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing to the overall employment stability[2][24] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, contrasting with a previous increase of 14,000, indicating pressure from tariff disruptions[3][23] - Financial activities added 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in the previous month, showing a recovery in this sector[3][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable declines in youth employment willingness[4][29] - The U3 unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 71,000 in the number of unemployed individuals[4][35] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 7.8%[4][35] Federal Reserve Outlook - The robust non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with a near 100% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in June 2025[5][19] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, having a probability of approximately 50%[5][19]