Group 1 - The current high level of the US stock market is heavily reliant on the expectation of a rate cut in September, and any hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve during the meeting could trigger a market correction [2] - The S&P 500 index has reached 6400 points, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, driven by strong earnings from large tech companies, which has boosted investor confidence in overall market growth [2] - Despite the anticipation of a rate cut, there is a risk that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may still convey a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control and suggesting that relatively high interest rates may persist [2][3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too quickly, it could stimulate demand and inflation, hindering the achievement of price stability goals [3] - The upcoming annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole may see Powell indicating that after a September rate cut, the Fed will cautiously monitor inflation trends before deciding on further cuts [3] - Current market expectations suggest more than two rate cuts within the year, which has led to a decline in two-year Treasury yields from around 4% in May to approximately 3.7% [3] Group 3 - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 has increased from 21.4 times expected earnings in mid-May to 22.5 times, reflecting the belief that lower interest rates support corporate profit expectations [4] - Should the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish approach and yields rise, the P/E ratio may revert to May levels, potentially leading to a nearly 5% decline in the S&P 500 to around 6100 points [4] - Analysts suggest that for investors looking to avoid significant disappointment in returns, now is not an opportune time to aggressively buy stocks [4]

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.61% to $3387.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.5% to $36.36 per ounce [4][5] - As of the latest report, gold prices continued to weaken, trading at $3381.30 per ounce [4] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates while signaling a hawkish stance has heightened market concerns over inflation and tariffs, leading to a shift of funds towards dollar assets, which puts pressure on gold [5] Group 2 - A significant explosion was reported in Tehran, with multiple locations in the city affected, including military bases in the Lavizan area [6][7] - Iran's airspace has been closed until noon on June 20 due to the current security situation, resulting in the suspension of all commercial flights [11][12] - Iran claims to have shot down two Israeli "Heron" drones in recent days, indicating ongoing military tensions [9][10] Group 3 - The White House announced that President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, with ongoing communications between the U.S. and Iran [17][19] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has the capability to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities and has already destroyed over half of Iran's missile launchers [20][21] - Since June 13, Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes against various Iranian targets, resulting in significant casualties [23] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for high-level meetings and a willingness to meet with Putin, indicating a desire to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict during Trump's presidency [24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. Federal Court ruling has boosted market risk sentiment, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand and a decline in gold prices for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-and-a-half-week low [1] - Multiple factors are pressuring gold prices, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent weakness in gold prices due to a rebound in the dollar and decreased safe-haven demand, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. PCE price index on Friday is highlighted as an important reference point for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and gold price trends [1] - The short-term gold price trend is indicated to be weak, with the Bollinger Bands showing an upward opening, while the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, continuing to exert pressure on gold prices [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes maintaining a low long position, focusing on buying opportunities after pullbacks, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has transformed it from a traditional safe-haven asset into a high-risk investment, particularly among younger investors who treat it like a stock for short-term trading [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with daily price changes often exceeding 2%, comparable to tech stocks [3]. - The interplay of three main forces is driving this volatility: hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve boosting the dollar index, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations reducing safe-haven demand, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks providing a support mechanism [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Younger investors, particularly those born in the 1990s, now account for 47% of bank gold accumulation business, showing a trend of frequent trading and a preference for short-term gains [3]. - This shift in investment strategy contrasts sharply with older generations who view gold as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical instances of gold price drops, such as a 9% decline in 2008 and prolonged losses after the 2013 buying spree by Chinese retail investors, highlight the risks associated with short-term trading in gold [3]. - The current market conditions serve as a reminder that all assets have cyclical patterns, and chasing price movements can lead to significant risks [4].