股息率

Search documents
牛市之下,聊聊投资回报公式
雪球· 2025-09-21 04:05
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者:奶牛的天空 来源:雪球 牛市大批人去做短线了,但是我依然执着于长线投资。今天来聊聊投资回报公式: 长期投资收益率=股息率+利润成长+估值变动 。举例:假设买入 股 票 时 , 实 时 股 息 率 为 5% , 利 润 成 长 年 化 为 5% , PE 为 10; 假 设 卖 出 股 票 时 PE 保 持 不 变 , 那 么 持 有 这 只 股 票 的 长 期 投 资 收 益 率 为 10%(5%+5%)。 一般来说,企业的基本面不发生变化的前提下,其估值会在一个区域内来回波动,期间可能会随着市场走牛或走熊而发生变化,但是最终的长期估 值还是会回归到它的基本面上来。 总结起来讲,基本面决定企业的长期估值,市场牛熊影响企业的短期估值。 下面我将逐一把公式里的3个元素讲 透: 一、 股息率为股票买入时的实时股息率 炒股软件上的股息率数据通常会有些滞后,特别是当天股价波动比较大的时候影响就比较大,我们可以自行来计算,准确率可以达到100%。 实时股息率=分红金额/当前实时股价*股权摊薄率。 如果企业一年有多次分红,注意要把各次的分红都加上。同时,如果企业每年的分红政策不是 ...
【钢铁】从股息率角度分析钢铁板块投资价值——钢铁行业动态点评(王招华/戴默)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-18 23:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the profitability of the general steel sector is at a low point, with the ROA for H1 2025 being 0.93%, the lowest level since 2010 [4] - The PB_LF of the general steel sector is currently at 0.96, which is 6.67% below the average since 2013, and significantly lower than the peaks in 2017 and 2021 by 83% and 69% respectively [5] - Among the general steel companies, 12 firms have a PB_LF below 1, with notable companies like Hebei Steel, New Steel, and Ansteel having PB_LF of 0.51, 0.52, and 0.54 respectively [6] Group 2 - Currently, 11 companies in the steel sector have a dividend yield above 3%, with the highest being Youfa Group at 6.09% [7] - The completion of ultra-low emission transformations in the industry is expected to further enhance the dividend payout ratios of general steel companies [8] - The average capital expenditure for the general steel sector from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 82.4 billion, significantly higher than the average of 65.4 billion from 2010 to 2019, with expectations of a decline in capital expenditure post-2026 [9]
A50直线跳水,银行股全线下跌,A股成交额超3万亿
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-18 08:00
Market Overview - On September 18, the major indices in the A-share market experienced a decline, with the ChiNext Index falling by 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.15%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 1.06% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 3.17 trillion yuan, compared to 2.4 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Stock Performance - The FTSE China A50 Index futures saw a decline of 1.44%, with over 4,300 stocks in the market experiencing a drop [3] - The banking sector faced a significant downturn, with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank dropping over 2% and 1% respectively [5] - Conversely, the robotics sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Shoukai Co. hitting the daily limit for 12 consecutive days [3] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen a continuous decline, with the AH Index and the China Securities Banking Index both dropping over 13% since July 11 [6] - As of September 17, the dividend yield for the banking AH Index rose to 4.6%, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [8][16] - Several banks have reported shareholder increases, with notable actions from major shareholders like Everbright Group and Zijin Trust [10][11] Dividend Distribution - By September 17, 17 listed banks announced a total dividend of 237.54 billion yuan for the mid-year of 2025, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading with a dividend of 50.396 billion yuan [14][15] - The trend of increasing dividends reflects confidence in the banks' future development and long-term investment value [11] Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increased their holdings in the banking sector, reaching a position of 28.24% as of the second quarter of 2025, while social security funds also raised their holdings to 51.71% [13] - The banking sector's low valuation and stable dividends continue to attract institutional investors, particularly those seeking steady returns [13][17]
A50直线跳水,银行股全线下跌,A股成交额超3万亿
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-18 07:51
Market Overview - On September 18, the major indices in the A-share market experienced a decline, with the ChiNext Index falling by 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.15%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 1.06% [1][2] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day's 2.4 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The FTSE China A50 Index futures saw a decline of 1.44%, with over 4,300 stocks in the market experiencing a drop [3] - The robotics sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Shoukai Co. hitting the daily limit up for 12 consecutive days [3] - The semiconductor industry showed resilience, with SMIC reaching a historical high, while the metals sector faced significant declines [3] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector faced a broad decline, with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China dropping over 2% and others like China Merchants Bank and Bank of China falling more than 1% [5][6] - The AH Index for banks has seen a drop of over 13% since July 11, marking a significant decline [6] Shareholder Activity - Several listed banks have reported shareholder increases, with the AH Index dividend yield rising to 4.6% as of September 17 [9][17] - Notable increases include Everbright Bank's major shareholder increasing their stake by 1.397 million shares, and Nanjing Bank receiving support from its major shareholder, Zijin Trust, which increased its holdings by approximately 56.78 million shares [11][12] Dividend Distribution - As of September 17, 17 listed banks announced mid-year dividend plans totaling 237.54 billion yuan, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading with a dividend of 50.396 billion yuan [15][16] - The trend indicates a strengthening of dividend policies among banks, reflecting confidence in future growth [12][13] Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increased their holdings in the banking sector, with a reported 28.24% allocation as of the second quarter of 2025, while social security funds also raised their positions [14] - The banking sector remains attractive for institutional investors due to its stable dividend yields and low valuations [14]
国泰海通:维持中国船舶租赁(03877)“增持”评级 上调目标价至2.72港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-18 07:40
Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for China Ship Leasing (03877), projecting a slight decline in pre-tax profit for the first half of 2025, with net profit estimates adjusted downwards for 2025-2027 to HKD 22/24/25 billion, respectively. The current PE valuation is 5.5 times, with a dividend yield of 7.3%, which could rise to 9% if the dividend payout ratio increases to 50% [1][2]. Group 1 - The impact of Hong Kong's international corporate tax reform has affected the company's performance, with pre-tax profit remaining stable. The company recorded a net profit of HKD 11.5 billion for the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year decline, primarily due to the tax reform leading to a significant increase in income tax [2]. - The company operates a fleet of 143 vessels, including 121 operational ships, with long-term leasing vessels estimated at 86, providing stable earnings, while short-term leasing vessels are subject to market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2 - The peak season for product oil transportation is expected to drive performance improvement in the second half of the year, with the MR fleet likely to enhance earnings. The demand for product oil transportation is anticipated to grow due to the global shift of refineries [3]. - The company plans to increase its mid-year dividend to HKD 0.05 per share in 2025, up from HKD 0.03, reflecting a commitment to improving shareholder returns. The potential increase in the dividend payout ratio could elevate the dividend yield to 9% [4].
从股息率角度分析钢铁板块投资价值:钢铁行业动态点评
EBSCN· 2025-09-18 07:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The ROA of the ordinary steel sector is at a low level since 2010, with a projected ROA of 0.93% for H1 2025 due to declining industry demand and profits [1] - The PB_LF of the ordinary steel sector is 0.96, which is 6.67% below the average since 2013, indicating potential for growth [1] - There are currently 12 ordinary steel companies with a PB_LF below 1, while 11 companies have a dividend yield above 3% [2][3] - The report anticipates an increase in dividend payout ratios for ordinary steel companies as low-emission transformation projects are completed by 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Metrics - The ordinary steel sector's ROA is projected to be 0.93% for H1 2025, marking a low since 2010 [1] - The current PB_LF of 0.96 is 6.67% below the average since 2013, with significant room for growth compared to peaks in 2017 and 2021 [1] Section 2: Company Analysis - Among the ordinary steel companies, 12 have a PB_LF below 1, with notable companies like Hebei Steel at 0.51, New Steel at 0.52, and Ansteel at 0.54 [2] - 11 companies in the steel sector have a dividend yield exceeding 3%, with the highest being Youfa Group at 6.09% [2][3] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Baosteel, Ordos, CITIC Special Steel, and Jiuli Special Materials for investment, while also suggesting to pay attention to Youfa Group, Nanjing Steel, and others [3]
畏高资金紧急避险!中证红利ETF(515080)获连续5日增持,今日分红除权
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 02:46
Core Viewpoint - The current dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index exceeds 4%, presenting a significant attraction compared to government bond yields [2] Group 1: Investment Trends - Recent analysis by Changjiang Securities indicates that the proportion of stocks and funds held by insurance companies has fluctuated between 12% and 13% over the past three years, suggesting substantial room for growth in this area [2] - Under the current policy, insurance companies are expected to contribute at least several hundred billion yuan in long-term funds to the A-share market annually [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Low volatility and high dividend-paying assets are likely to attract more incremental capital inflows [2] - With recent expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, the risk-free interest rate may continue to decline, further enhancing the investment value of dividend assets [2]
1H25百威亚太(1876.HK)业绩点评:业绩调整延续 股息或筑估值底
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 20:01
Core Viewpoint - The company continues to face operational pressure in the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak demand in the Chinese market and internal channel adjustments, although there are signs of improvement in non-immediate consumption channels [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of $3.14 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, with an organic decline of 5.6% [1]. - Net profit for H1 2025 was $410 million, down 24.4% year-on-year, influenced by internal restructuring and non-basic income tax impacts [1]. - The company's normalized earnings per share decreased to 3.59 cents, a year-on-year decline of 14.3% [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific region generated revenue of $2.52 billion in H1 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, with beer sales of 3.792 million kiloliters, a decrease of 7.1% [2]. - In China, revenue fell by 9.5% year-on-year, with sales down 8.2%, and revenue per hundred liters decreased by 1.4% [2]. - Non-immediate consumption channels showed growth in both revenue and sales year-on-year, with high-end and super high-end products surpassing the corresponding share of the Chinese restaurant channel [2]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 51.4% in H1 2025, while the sales expense ratio increased by 0.73 percentage points to 23.9% [3]. - The net profit margin fell by 2.87 percentage points to 13.0% year-on-year [3]. - The company declared an annual dividend of $5.66 per share (approximately 43.96 Hong Kong cents), resulting in a current dividend yield of about 5.36% based on the closing price of HKD 8.20 on September 12, 2025 [3].
大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程美元弱势,降息在即,全球风险资产上行-20250915
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-09-15 15:17
Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]
未来三年现金分红公司预测股息率排名
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 14:02
Core Viewpoint - Over 600 companies have disclosed their shareholder return plans for 2025-2027, indicating a strong focus on dividend payouts in the upcoming years [1] Summary by Category Dividend Rates - Jianghe Group has the highest projected dividend rate, followed by Huaihe Energy, with China Shenhua and Mindray Medical tied for third place [1] Earnings Predictions and Dividend Yields - Based on consensus earnings per share forecasts, 25 stocks are expected to have dividend yields exceeding 2% [1] - The average annual increase for these 25 stocks is nearly 11%, significantly outperforming the performance of the CSI Dividend Index during the same period [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Zhongfu Industrial and Tianshan Aluminum, both of which have seen annual increases exceeding 50% [1] - Jianghe Group has experienced an annual increase of over 48%, ranking third, with a commitment to a minimum dividend rate of 80% over three years, which is the highest among the companies mentioned [1]