文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 时加 正 2015年牛市顶点后），即使股息率稳 定,股价下跌仍然可能导致账面浮亏。 价值、成长策略，在A股长期都有效。 长期收益也差不多，但每隔几年，就会 出现风格轮动,某一种风格会超过另一 种风格。 价值风格的波动,在股票类资产中属于 比较低的，遇到成长风格牛市，价值风 格也不至于大幅暴跌。不过可能会阶段 性的跑输市场，此时就对投资者的耐心 提出了考验。 其实对红利这类品种,如果想要长期坚 持下来,最好不要以短期跑赢跑输市场 来看待。 因为风格轮动的存在，红利肯定会在某 几年跑输市场。这在长达几十年的投资 中，几乎是一定会遇到的。 如果以跑赢跑输看待红利策略，那就会 患得患失。 实际上，能长期坚持投资红利类品种 的，通常是从股息率的角度看待红利。 如果是用短期资金投资,那么为了应对 流动性需求，可能会被迫在低位卖出, 影响我们的投资体验,甚至产生实际的 亏损。 所以，最好也是用3-5年以上长期不用的 闹钱来投资，并做好面对波动风险的心 理准备。 (2) A 股存在显著的成长与价值风格轮 动特征。 红利作为价值风格品种，会在不同阶段 出现跑赢或跑输市场的情况。 风险提示 ...

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China (02282) for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] Financial Performance - The group's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, which is 6% higher than the firm's forecast [1] - Total gaming revenue reached HKD 10.5 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the firm's prediction by 3.1% [1] - VIP room business grew by 40% year-on-year, while mass market business increased by 20%, indicating strong growth in both segments [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of HKD 2.75 billion, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter growth, surpassing market expectations by 11% [1] Strategic Initiatives - MGM China plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its high-end appeal and increase market share [1] - Management indicated strong hotel booking conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] Dividend Policy - The firm assumes a dividend payout ratio of 50% for MGM China, consistent with the company's updated dividend policy, estimating a leading industry dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China (02282) for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] Financial Performance - MGM China's Q4 performance exceeded expectations with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, which is 6% higher than Macquarie's forecast [1] - Total gaming revenue reached HKD 10.5 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Macquarie's prediction by 3.1% [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by 40% year-on-year, while mass market revenue increased by 20%, indicating strong growth in both segments [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of HKD 2.75 billion, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter growth, surpassing market expectations by 11% [1] Strategic Initiatives - MGM China plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its high-end appeal and increase market share [1] - Management indicated strong hotel booking conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] Dividend Policy - Macquarie assumes a dividend payout ratio of 50% for MGM China, consistent with the company's updated dividend policy, estimating a leading industry dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64% to close at 4075.92 points, with a high of 4088.9 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.44% to 13952.71 points, reaching a peak of 14074.36 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.55% to 3260.28 points, with a maximum of 3288.38 points [1] ETF Market Performance 1. Stock ETF Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -1.12% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was from Bosera CSI A50 ETF at 0.51% [2] - The top-performing industry index ETF was Tianhong CSI Bank ETF with a return of 2.36% [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was from Xinhua CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF at 1.45% [2] - The best-performing style index ETF was China Tai CSI Film and Television Theme ETF at 2.06% [2] 2. Stock ETF Performance Rankings - The top three stock ETFs by return were Tianhong CSI Bank ETF (2.36%), Guotai CSI Film and Television Theme ETF (2.06%), and E Fund CSI Bank ETF (1.95%) [6] - The three worst-performing stock ETFs were Huaan CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (-5.9%), Huaxia CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (-5.63%), and Huatai-PB CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (-5.45%) [7] 3. Stock ETF Fund Flows - The top three stock ETFs by fund inflow were Huaxia CSI A500 ETF (1.199 billion), Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (1.123 billion), and Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (474 million) [9] - The three stock ETFs with the highest fund outflows were Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF (579 million), Yongying CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (569 million), and Jiashi Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (352 million) [11] 4. Stock ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three stock ETFs by margin buying were Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (612 million), Southern CSI 500 ETF (506 million), and Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF (364 million) [12] - The highest margin selling amounts were from Southern CSI 500 ETF (92.58 million), Southern CSI 1000 ETF (69.29 million), and Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (20.04 million) [14] Institutional Perspectives - Ping An Securities expects the dividend configuration value of the banking sector to remain attractive, driven by stable fund inflows from passive index expansions and the sector's high dividend yield of 4.50% [14] - Industrial Securities notes that the dividend yield for major state-owned banks in A-shares is projected to rise to the 4.4%-5% range by 2026, with some quality regional banks exceeding 6% [15] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in 2026, with stable interest margins and a positive trend in revenue and profit, making it a high-dividend, low-valuation asset with significant allocation value [15]

对固收 + 与多资产组合而言，股债弱相关意味着"债券对冲权益"的效率偏低 ，单纯依赖股债负相关来提供稳健性的确定性下降。因此， 组合构建上应有意识 下调对"股债对冲"的单一依赖 ，把稳健性更多交给久期结构、曲线配置与品种分散来实现；含权仓位强调可控风险暴露与组合波动管理，让收益更多来自结 构轮动与精选，而非依赖负相关"兜底"。 风险提示：数据统计遗漏、偏误；政策理解不到位；理论推演理解有别；等等。 2025 年以来股债关系由显著"跷跷板"逐渐走向"脱敏"。 25 年上半年"跷跷板"的形成，更多来自风险资产比价与估值再定价 ： 此前利率下行过快、债券价 格偏贵、后续空间被透支；同时权益在科技主线带动下自低位修复、风险偏好回升，资金在股债之间的相对性价比再配置对利率形成阶段性压制。 25 年下半 年，联动强度的削弱更像是低利率约束下债市回归区间震荡的自然结果 ： 利率上端受权益偏强与供给扰动牵制，下端又受资金面稳定与政策预期呵护约束， 债市缺乏触发单边行情的定价力量；在"股强债震荡"的组合下，股债联动向弱相关区间收敛。 股债关联强度的变化显著影响股债组合的对冲效率。 我们发现： 股债相关性绝对值的变化，与股息率的 ...

Company Dynamics - The company is currently in the pre-Spring Festival stocking period, with healthy channel inventory and stable pricing. The performance in January is expected to be robust, and attention should be paid to sales performance during the Spring Festival [1] Comments - The annual liquid milk revenue target is stabilizing, and market share is expected to improve, leading to an overall revenue enhancement. January revenue is anticipated to exceed targets, with smooth progress in Spring Festival stocking. The main growth drivers include: 1) Deep cooperation with customized channels and opportunities for market penetration, with major clients like snack discounts and Sam's Club reaching a customized scale of 100 billion yuan, which may deepen collaboration and promote market penetration; 2) Differentiated new products, such as the lemon-flavored yogurt and positive feedback from online trials of premium fresh products, are expected to contribute significantly to future sales. In the milk powder segment, the industry scale is expected to remain stable year-on-year, while the company's milk powder revenue is projected to grow in double digits, with significant market share improvement. The cheese and ice cream segments are expected to continue their performance in 2025, with the company gradually focusing on deep processing and functional nutrition, leading to incremental contributions in the future [2] Financial Outlook and Valuation - The expense ratio is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a long-term direction for profit margin improvement. Over the past two years, the company has actively reduced expenses in a weak industry environment, leading to a continuous decline in absolute expenses and improved efficiency. For 2026, the expense ratio is expected to remain stable, with planned investments for events like the World Cup and Winter Olympics to maintain exposure without altering the overall expense plan. Long-term, as the proportion of liquid milk revenue continues to decrease, the share of high-value-added categories such as milk powder, cheese, and functional nutrition is expected to increase, leading to potential long-term profit margin improvements. The upstream supply and demand situation is expected to improve, with an attractive dividend yield highlighting the company's deep investment value. In 2025, the number of dairy cows is expected to continue to decrease, and supply-demand conditions are anticipated to improve further in 2026, stabilizing milk prices and reducing impairment losses on reports, which will benefit the competitive landscape. The company plans to maintain a 75% dividend payout ratio over the next three years, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 5.1% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 is maintained, while the profit for 2026 is adjusted down by 3.5% to 11.7 billion yuan due to high uncertainty in liquid milk demand. The profit for 2027 is introduced at 12.6 billion yuan. The current trading is at 15/14 times the P/E for 2026/2027, with a target price of 32 yuan, corresponding to 17/16 times the P/E for 2026/2027 and an upside potential of 18%, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [4]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 如何择时股债对冲效率 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 寻找跨资产定价的共振系数 本报告导读： 对冲效率看联动强度，联动强度看风险溢价。股息率是适合跟踪的风险溢价信号， 关键看股息率的边际变动。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 证 券 研 究 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide details on their construction or evaluation [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [5][6][19][28][40][49][55] - The analysis includes comparisons of indices against their historical averages, standard deviations, and percentile rankings over the past 1 and 5 years, providing insights into valuation and market sentiment [32][43][45][54] - Key indices analyzed include the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, CSI All Share, and ChiNext Index, with detailed metrics such as risk premiums, PE-TTM values, dividend yields, and net asset ratios provided for each index [13][19][32][45][54][58] - The report highlights the relative valuation and investment attractiveness of these indices based on their historical positioning and current market conditions, but does not delve into specific quantitative factor or model construction [43][45][54]

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview - The beer industry is currently experiencing a high dividend yield, with leading companies increasing their dividends, providing support for stock prices. The focus is on the recovery of service consumption and inflation expectations driving volume and price growth in 2026 [1][2] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in volume and price due to improved service consumption and inflation expectations [1] Key Companies and Insights China Resources Beer (华润啤酒) - Recognized for its leading position and ongoing premiumization strategy [1] - Projected to achieve a small single-digit volume growth in 2025, with stable pricing and a slight decline in H2 compared to H1. Full-year profit is expected to grow by a high single to double-digit percentage [2] - Anticipated revenue and profit for 2025 are 39.1 billion and 5.8 billion respectively, not accounting for impairments [2] - Dividend payout ratio is expected to gradually increase to 70-80% [2] Chongqing Brewery (重啤) - Q4 trends are better than the same period last year, primarily due to strict inventory control in 2025. The company expects stable or slightly increased sales for the year [2] - Notable growth in U.S. and Xinjiang markets, with double-digit growth for brands like Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue [2] Yanjing Beer (燕京) - The company forecasts a slight decline in net profit for Q4, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3% to +44% [3] - Plans to launch a new product, A10, to enhance its product matrix in 2026 [3] - Expected stable cost per ton and potential for operational efficiency improvements [3] Financial Metrics - China Resources Beer has a dividend yield of 4.0% for A shares and 5.5% for H shares [2] - Chongqing Brewery's Q4 performance is expected to show a slight increase in sales, with a focus on inventory management [2] - Yanjing's Q4 revenue is projected to grow by 7%, with an annual profit of 1.2 billion [3] Risks - Potential risks include cost fluctuations, slower-than-expected recovery in demand from the restaurant sector, and increased competition [4]

Group 1 - The main sources of returns for index funds are profit growth, valuation improvement, and dividend income [2] - Profit growth from listed companies is the core source of long-term returns, while valuation impacts returns significantly during market cycles [2] - Dividend contributions are substantial for dividend and value indices, and patience in holding these investments is advised as long as they are not overvalued [2]