Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported the fiscal revenue and expenditure for January to July 2025, indicating a slight increase in overall public budget revenue and a decrease in tax revenue [1] Revenue Summary - Total general public budget revenue reached 1,358.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 1,109.33 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [1] - Non-tax revenue was recorded at 249.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure totaled 1,607.37 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1] Government Fund Budget Summary - Government fund budget revenue for the period was 231.24 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1] - Central government fund budget revenue was 25.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] - Local government fund budget revenue was 205.28 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 169.50 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year [1]

7月份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2.6%，其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.2%、3.1%，月度增幅均为今年以 来最高。具体来看，7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 从支出看，1—7月，全国一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%，社会保障和就业、教育、卫生健康等重点领域支出得 到较好保障。 央视网消息：财政部8月19日发布1至7月财政收支运行情况。前七月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%，累 计增幅年内首次转正。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that the fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first seven months of the year showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in public budget revenue and a narrowing decline in tax revenue. Revenue Performance - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 202.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. Cumulative revenue from January to July was 1,358.39 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - Tax revenue in July was 180.18 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5%. Cumulative tax revenue from January to July was 1,109.33 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.3%, which is an improvement compared to the 1.2% decline in the first half of the year [1] - Specific tax categories showed varied performance: domestic VAT grew by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8%, all improving compared to the first half of the year. Corporate income tax revenue was 305.66 billion yuan, down 0.4%, but the decline was less severe than in the first half [1][2] Sector-Specific Tax Revenue - From January to July, stamp duty revenue reached 255.9 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 20.7%. The securities transaction stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, up 62.5% year-on-year [2] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries performed well in terms of tax revenue, with notable increases in sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication equipment [2] Expenditure Performance - National general public budget expenditure grew, with a total of 1,607.37 billion yuan spent from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Central government expenditure was 233.27 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 1,374.10 billion yuan, up 2.5% [2][3] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (27.62 billion yuan, +9.8%), education (24.44 billion yuan, +5.7%), and health (12.40 billion yuan, +5.3%) [3] Bond Issuance and Fund Utilization - The issuance and utilization of bond funds accelerated, with 2.89 trillion yuan spent on local government special bonds and other long-term bonds from January to July, contributing to a 31.7% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3]

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting significant changes in various tax revenues and expenditures, particularly in the context of securities transaction stamp duty and overall budget performance [1][2]. National General Public Budget Revenue Situation - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3]. - Tax revenue totaled 110,933 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 24,906 billion yuan [3]. - Central government revenue was 58,538 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 1.8% to 77,301 billion yuan [3]. Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax amounted to 42,551 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year [4]. - Domestic consumption tax reached 10,213 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.1% [4]. - Corporate income tax was 30,566 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.4% [5]. - Personal income tax increased by 8.8% to 9,279 billion yuan [6]. - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 10,300 billion yuan, down 6.1% [7]. - Export tax rebates were 14,065 billion yuan, up 9.7% [8]. - Stamp duty revenue was 2,559 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty at 936 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 62.5% [11]. National General Public Budget Expenditure Situation - Total expenditure from January to July 2025 was 160,737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [20]. - Central government expenditure was 23,327 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.5% to 137,410 billion yuan [20]. Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 24,438 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% [21]. - Social security and employment expenditure was 27,621 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.8% [24]. - Health expenditure totaled 12,402 billion yuan, up 5.3% [25]. - Expenditure on urban and rural community services decreased by 3.5% to 11,185 billion yuan [27]. National Government Fund Budget Revenue Situation - Government fund budget revenue for the first seven months was 23,124 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [31]. - Central government fund budget revenue was 2,596 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government fund budget revenue decreased by 1.8% to 20,528 billion yuan [31]. National Government Fund Budget Expenditure Situation - Total expenditure from January to July 2025 was 54,287 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.7% [32]. - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7,109 billion yuan, up 4.5 times, while local government fund budget expenditure increased by 18.1% to 47,178 billion yuan [32].

财政部发布2025年1—7月财政收支情况显示，印花税2559亿元，同比增长20.7%。其中，证券交易印花税936亿元，同比增长62.5%。 据财政部此前发布的数据，上半年证券交易印花税收入为785亿元，同比增长54.1%。这意味着今年7月证券交易印花税为151亿元，相较 于6月的117亿元，环比增长29%。 此外，2024年7月证券交易印花税为67亿元， 同比来看，今年7月证券交易印花税增长1.25倍。 ...

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 110,933 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 24,906 billion yuan, increasing by 2% [2] - Central government budget revenue was 58,538 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while local government budget revenue was 77,301 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 42,551 billion yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 10,213 billion yuan, rising by 2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax was 30,566 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% [4] - Personal income tax reached 9,279 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.8% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 10,300 billion yuan, down 6.1%, while customs duties were 1,316 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 14,065 billion yuan, increasing by 9.7% [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 2,559 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 20.7%, including a 62.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [9] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the first seven months was 160,737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [16] - Central government expenditure was 23,327 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 137,410 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [17] - Key expenditure areas included education (24,438 billion yuan, +5.7%), social security and employment (27,621 billion yuan, +9.8%), and health (12,402 billion yuan, +5.3%) [17] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue was 23,124 billion yuan, a decline of 0.7% year-on-year [21] - Central government fund budget revenue was 2,596 billion yuan, increasing by 8.8%, while local government fund budget revenue was 20,528 billion yuan, down 1.8% [21] - Government fund budget expenditure reached 54,287 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.7% [22] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7,109 billion yuan, up 4.5 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 47,178 billion yuan, increasing by 18.1% [22]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,663 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of approximately 1.2% after excluding special factors [1][2] - National general public budget expenditure for the same period was 155,463 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1][3] Revenue Analysis - The overall national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but when adjusted for special factors, it showed a growth of 1.2% [2] - Tax revenue was impacted by various factors, with a 5.4% decline in total tax revenue. Notably, domestic value-added tax fell by 5.2%, while domestic consumption tax increased by 5.5% due to growth in sales of refined oil, cigarettes, and alcohol [2] - Export tax rebates amounted to 12,824 billion yuan, an increase of 1,632 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting foreign trade growth [2] Expenditure Analysis - National general public budget expenditure increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security and employment (4.3%), agriculture, forestry, and water (8.2%), and urban and rural community spending (7.2%) [3] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates stable growth in public budget expenditure in the coming months, supported by macroeconomic policies and the gradual fading of special factors [3] Local Government Debt Management - From January to July, local governments issued 17,749 billion yuan in new special bonds, primarily for infrastructure projects in key areas identified by the central government [4] - The Ministry of Finance is working with relevant departments to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to enhance investment efficiency and support economic development [4] - Overall, local government debt risks are considered manageable, with a gradual reduction in hidden debt levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year are under pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. The government is expected to utilize fiscal policy reserves to cover the revenue gap caused by childcare and elderly service subsidies [1][5][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue and expenditure deviated slightly from the initial budget, with revenue falling short by 463 billion yuan and expenditure by 1309 billion yuan for the general public budget [2][6]. - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 6.9%. Local governments showed a revenue increase of 3.0% and expenditure increase of 3.7% [3][6]. - For the second half of the year, the expected year-on-year growth rates for the general public budget are -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure, leading to a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion yuan and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion yuan compared to the budget [5][11]. Budget Execution and Adjustments - Historically, the completion rate for the general public budget has been over 98%, and significant deviations typically necessitate budget adjustments or additional deficits. However, the flexibility of the special fund budget allows for a completion rate of 80%-90% without strict requirements [2][5]. - The government plans to cover the expected 1200 billion yuan revenue gap from subsidies without increasing the budget by utilizing reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises [11][12]. Central Financial Enterprises' Role - The profits from central financial enterprises are crucial for offsetting revenue shortfalls. In 2024, these enterprises contributed significantly to the budget, with non-tax revenue showing substantial increases in late 2024 [7][12]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 2739.22 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with plans to allocate 1000 billion yuan in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 1739.22 billion yuan [12].