宏观日报 | 2025-11-18 中游开工延续分化 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）1-10月装备制造业增加值同比增长9.5%，贡献率超过一半，成为拉动工业增长的主引擎。在能源与 关键原材料领域，煤炭等优质产能持续释放以保障能源供应；但另一方面，受全球AI热潮影响，芯片出现供应短 缺和大幅涨价，部分价格较9月上涨高达60%，这为下游相关制造业带来了成本压力。 服务行业： 1）国家外汇管理局公布2025年10月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据，统计数据显示，2025年 10月，银行结汇15194亿元人民币，售汇13940亿元人民币。2025年1-10月，银行累计结汇147941亿元人民币，累计 售汇142201亿元人民币。（2）财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490 亿元，同比增长0.8%；全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。全国政府性基金预算收入34473亿元， 同比下降2.8%；全国政府性基金预算支出80892亿元，同比增长15.4%。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：镍价格回落，铝价格小幅回升。2）黑色：玻 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on global stock indices, which are undergoing an adjustment. After the adjustment of the technology sector, the overall trading volume in the market has declined, showing a rotational pattern with generally low sustainability. Some sectors have gradually fallen to support levels, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of these supports. The overall index is still moving around the previous central level, but individual stocks are showing significant differentiation. Caution is needed in operations, and hasty bottom - fishing should be avoided [2] 2. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11] Spot Market Tracking Charts - On November 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13202.00, down 0.11%; the ChiNext Index was at 3105.20, down 0.20%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4598.05, down 0.65%; the SSE 50 Index was at 3012.07, down 0.87%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7235.35, unchanged; and the CSI 1000 Index was at 7523.08, up 0.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.9 trillion yuan [14][1] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased simultaneously. Specifically, the trading volume of IF was 114,292 (an increase of 4,303), and the open interest was 272,721 (an increase of 7,845); the trading volume of IH was 57,196 (an increase of 8,963), and the open interest was 101,114 (an increase of 3,993); the trading volume of IC was 116,917 (an increase of 305), and the open interest was 245,834 (an increase of 816). The trading volume of IM was 197,327 (an increase of 4,748), and the open interest was 355,153 (a decrease of 2,069) [1][18] - The report also provides data on the basis of stock index futures contracts (including current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts) and inter - period spreads of different contracts (such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) [39][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady growth of fiscal revenue in China, particularly tax revenue, which has shown a positive trend in recent months, indicating an improving economic environment [4][5]. Fiscal Revenue Overview - In the first ten months of the year, China's general public budget revenue reached approximately 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Tax revenue accounted for about 15.34 trillion yuan, growing by 1.7% [4]. - Tax revenue has shifted from a decline to growth, with significant increases noted in July and August, and a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in September and 8.6% in October [4][6]. Factors Contributing to Tax Revenue Growth - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to several factors, including an improving economy, a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), and a low base from the previous year [6]. - The active capital market has also contributed to tax revenue growth, with the total market capitalization of A-share companies surpassing 100 trillion yuan in August and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in September. Daily trading volumes in August and September averaged 2.3 trillion yuan and 2.4 trillion yuan, respectively [6]. - Notable increases in personal income tax and securities transaction stamp duty were observed, with the latter reaching 162.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.1%, and personal income tax at 1.3363 trillion yuan, up 11.5% [6]. Sector-Specific Tax Revenue Performance - Certain industries have shown strong tax revenue performance, including: - Computer and communication equipment manufacturing: 12.7% growth - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing: 7.9% growth - Scientific research and technical services: 14.8% growth - Cultural, sports, and entertainment industries: 5.7% growth [7]. Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first ten months was approximately 3.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [8]. - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, also saw a decline, with total revenue of about 3.45 trillion yuan, down 2.8%. Specifically, income from land use rights fell to approximately 2.49 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.4% [8]. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure has been maintained at a certain intensity to stabilize the economy, with total general public budget expenditure reaching about 22.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [9]. - Expenditure related to social security and employment grew by 9.3%, amounting to approximately 3.77 trillion yuan [9]. - The government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local fiscal capacity and effective investment [9].

财政部网站11月17日消息，财政部国库司发布2025年1-10月财政收支情况。 1-10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增 长1.7% 政府性基金预算方面，今年1-10月收入为34473亿元，同比下降2.8%。分中央和地方看，中央政府性基 金预算收入3618亿元，同比增长1.6%；地方政府性基金预算本级收入30855亿元，同比下降3.3%，其 中，国有土地使用权出让收入24982亿元，同比下降7.4%。 全文如下。 一、全国一般公共预算收支情况 （一）一般公共预算收入情况。 1-10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增 长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入81856亿元， 同比下降0.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入104634亿元，同比增长2.1%。 主要税收收入项目情况如下： 1.国内增值税58858亿元，同比增长4%。 2.国内消费税14390亿元，同比增长2.4%。 9.印花税3781亿元，同比增长29.5%。其中，证 ...

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 财政部11月17日发布的2025年1至10月财政收支情况显示，1至10月，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿 元，同比增长0.8%。全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。在主要税收收入项目中，印花 税收入3781亿元，同比增长29.5%；其中，证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增长88.1%。 全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续提高，累计增幅稳步回升。10月份，全国一般公共预算收入2.26万 亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.3%、4%。1至10月，全国一般公共预算收入同 比增幅比1至9月提高0.3个百分点。装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好。计算机通信设备制 造业税收收入增长12.7%，电气机械器材制造业税收收入增长7.9%，科学研究技术服务业税收收入增长 14.8%。 全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。财政部表示，各级财政部门认真落实更加积 极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。1至10月，在全国一 般公共预算支出中，社会保障和就业支出同比增长9.3%，教育支出同比增长4.7%，卫生健康支出同比 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - In October, the national general public budget revenue reached 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.3% and 4% respectively [1] - From January to October, the total general public budget revenue was 18.649 trillion yuan, up 0.8%, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] - Tax revenue showed robust growth, with October tax revenue at 2.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, maintaining a similar growth rate as September [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Major tax categories from January to October included domestic VAT (up 4%), domestic consumption tax (up 2.4%), corporate income tax (up 1.9%), and individual income tax (up 11.5%), with increases compared to the previous nine months [1] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty at 162.9 billion yuan, up 88.1% [1] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure from January to October was 22.5825 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with central expenditure growing by 6.3% and local expenditure by 1.2% [2] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (37.742 billion yuan, up 9.3%), education (34.117 billion yuan, up 4.7%), and health (16.877 billion yuan, up 2.4%) [2] Group 4: Government Fund Budget - From January to October, government fund budget revenue was 3.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, while expenditure was 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.4% [3] - The increase in expenditure was primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds, with 4.54 trillion yuan spent on various types of bonds [3]

11月17日，财政部公布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。 1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比 增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入81856亿 元，同比下降0.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入104634亿元，同比增长2.1%。 1—10月，全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级 支出34727亿元，同比增长6.3%；地方一般公共预算支出191098亿元，同比增长1.2%。 从最新公布的财政收支情况可以看出，一般公共预算出现了收入增速加快，支出增速回落的情况。此 外，一般公共预算收入增速创年内新高。 "这可能与10月份土地市场热度回落有关。"中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪说。 张迪分析，10月土地出让收入当月值为2680亿元(前值3039亿元)，累计增速下滑至-7.4%(前值-4.2%)， 土地成交规模环比回落，同比降幅亦显著扩大。根据克而瑞地产研究数据，10月土地成交建筑面积与金 额分别环比下降13%和20%；同比来看，二者降幅进 ...

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][2] - Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% [2] - Central government revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 58,858 billion yuan, increasing by 4% [3] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 14,390 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.4% [4] - Corporate income tax reached 39,182 billion yuan, up 1.9% [5] - Personal income tax was 13,363 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 11.5% [6] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 15,007 billion yuan, down 4.9% [7] - Export tax rebates were 18,121 billion yuan, increasing by 6.9% [8] - Stamp duty revenue was 3,781 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 29.5%, including securities transaction stamp duty at 1,629 billion yuan, up 88.1% [11] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure from January to October was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [20] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, up 6.3%, while local government expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, increasing by 1.2% [20] Major Expenditure Categories - Education expenditure reached 34,117 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% [22] - Social security and employment expenditure was 37,742 billion yuan, up 9.3% [22] - Environmental protection expenditure increased by 11.6% to 262 billion yuan [18] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue was 34,473 billion yuan, down 2.8% [23] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, declining by 3.3%, with land use rights transfer income at 24,982 billion yuan, down 7.4% [23] - Government fund budget expenditure was 80,892 billion yuan, increasing by 15.4% [23]

National General Public Budget Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2] - Tax revenue accounted for 15,336.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% [2] - Central government revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 58,858 billion yuan, increasing by 4% [3] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 14,390 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.4% [4] - Corporate income tax reached 39,182 billion yuan, up 1.9% [5] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 11.5%, totaling 13,363 billion yuan [6] - Import VAT and consumption tax totaled 15,007 billion yuan, down 4.9%, while customs duties were 1,954 billion yuan, down 3.3% [7] - Export tax rebates were 18,121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [8] - Urban maintenance and construction tax was 4,377 billion yuan, up 3.5% [9] - Vehicle purchase tax decreased significantly by 16.3%, totaling 1,676 billion yuan [10] - Stamp duty revenue reached 3,781 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 29.5%, including a remarkable 88.1% growth in securities transaction stamp duty [11] - Property tax increased by 10.6%, amounting to 4,373 billion yuan [14] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure from January to October was 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [20] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, up 6.3%, while local government expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, increasing by 1.2% [20] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 34,117 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% [21] - Social security and employment expenditure was 37,742 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.3% [24] - Science and technology expenditure totaled 7,847 billion yuan, increasing by 5.7% [22] - Expenditure on urban and rural community services decreased by 7.3%, totaling 15,253 billion yuan [24] - Expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources fell by 11.7%, amounting to 17,627 billion yuan [24] National Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue was 34,473 billion yuan, down 2.8% [24] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, decreasing by 3.3%, with land use rights transfer income at 24,982 billion yuan, down 7.4% [24] National Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Total government fund budget expenditure was 80,892 billion yuan, a significant increase of 15.4% [24] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,564 billion yuan, up 2.2 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 72,328 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3% [24]

新华财经北京11月17日电财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。 一、全国一般公共预算收支情况 （一）一般公共预算收入情况。 1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比 增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入81856亿 元，同比下降0.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入104634亿元，同比增长2.1%。 主要税收收入项目情况如下： 1.国内增值税58858亿元，同比增长4%。 2.国内消费税14390亿元，同比增长2.4%。 3.企业所得税39182亿元，同比增长1.9%。 4.个人所得税13363亿元，同比增长11.5%。 5.进口货物增值税、消费税15007亿元，同比下降4.9%。关税1954亿元，同比下降3.3%。 6.出口退税18121亿元，同比增长6.9%。 7.城市维护建设税4377亿元，同比增长3.5%。 8.车辆购置税1676亿元，同比下降16.3%。 9.印花税3781亿元，同比增长29.5%。其中，证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增长88.1%。 10.资源税250 ...