Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 21.6 trillion, completing 98.3% of the initial budget, while total expenditure was 28.74 trillion, completing 96.8% of the budget, marking the lowest completion rate on record[3] - December 2025 fiscal revenue was 1.55 trillion, down 25% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - December fiscal expenditure was 3.89 trillion, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend for three consecutive months[11] Structural Insights - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local government expenditure, which only grew by 0.2%[3] - The proportion of general fiscal expenditure directed towards people's livelihoods increased to 38%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while infrastructure-related expenditure decreased to 19.5%, down 1.9 percentage points[3] Future Projections - For 2026, it is anticipated that fiscal expansion will remain at a level comparable to 2025, with a focus on "investing in people" and an early release of "national subsidies" to stimulate economic growth[6] - A projected 580 billion in carryover funds from 2025 is expected to supplement the 2026 fiscal budget[2] Tax Revenue Expectations - A rebound in prices, particularly a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), is expected to increase tax revenue by approximately 1.4 percentage points, translating to an additional 2.4 trillion in tax revenue[8] - The PPI is forecasted to improve from -2.6% to -0.4% in 2026, which will positively impact tax bases, especially for value-added tax and corporate income tax[8] Short-term Considerations - Key areas of focus include local government GDP targets, potential carryover funds, and the performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[8]

Revenue Insights - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 1.0%[5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 7.0% year-on-year, with expenditure rising by 11.3%[5] - In December 2025, general public budget revenue dropped by 25.0% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 1.8%[7] Expenditure Trends - December general public budget expenditure saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, an improvement from the previous decline of 3.7%[27] - Expenditure in December increased by over 70% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends due to year-end budget execution[27] - Non-living-related expenditures, including infrastructure and cultural projects, contributed to the expenditure increase, while living-related expenditures lagged behind seasonal expectations[27] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Tax revenue in December showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.9%, significantly lower than the historical average increase of 23.9%[16] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT and consumption tax, experienced negative growth, reflecting economic pressures[19] - The reliance on non-tax revenue increased, with its share in the general public budget revenue rising to approximately 26%[27] Future Outlook and Risks - Tax revenue is expected to have some expansion potential due to new industry drivers and improved export resilience[38] - Risks include potential underperformance of incremental policies and continued weakness in the real estate market, which could further strain local government finances[39]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 财政：12 月收支变化与 2026 年开年预期 | [Table 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | --- | --- | | _Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2025 年 12 月财政收入单月变化幅度较大（同比-25.0%），我们理解基数是主要原因。2024 年"924"后为完 成预算任务"安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益"，带动中央财政收入走高（2024 年 12 月同比 40.4%）， 高基数之下 2025 年同期同比只有-50.3%；地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前值的同比 4.1%大致持平。 根据财政部数据，2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入同比-25.0%（前值-0.02%）；其中税收收入同比-11.5%（前 值 2.8%）、非税收入同比-47.9%（前值-10.8%）；中央一般公共预算收 ...

记者丨曾静娇 周潇枭 编辑丨刘雪莹 视频丨王学权 财政部、税务总局发布最新公告，2026年起增值税起征点再次提高，以减轻个人税负。 1月31日，据财政部网站消息，财政部、税务总局公布 《关于增值税法施行后增值税优惠政策 衔接事项的公告》 ，调整了增值税起征点，达不到起征点标准的纳税人不用缴纳增值税。 根据《公告》， 自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，小规模纳税人发生应税交易，起征点标 准如下： （一）以一个月为一个计税期间的，起征点为月销售额10万元。以一个季度为一个计税期间 的，起征点为季度销售额30万元。 财政部截图 （二）按次纳税的， 起征点为每次（日）销售额1000元。 一日内发生多次应税交易的，按日 适用起征点标准。 据第一财经，上述增值税按次纳税起征点提高无疑对个人等是一个重大利好。比如专家学者给 高校、企业授课的劳务费，每次或每天低于1000元，将不用缴纳增值税。个人跑外卖、撰稿等 打零工每次（每天）低于1000元，也不用缴纳增值税。 另据新华社报道，国家税务总局制发了《关于起征点标准等增值税征管事项的公告》，就起征 点标准判定、税收优惠政策适用等增值税征管事项作了进一步明确，细化操 ...

财政部发布2025年财政收支数据显示，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入实现21.6万亿元，比上年下降 1.7%。其中，税收收入约17.6万亿元，增长0.8%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 在主体税种整体低增长的背景下，2025年个人所得税实现11.5%的高增长，这与居民收入稳步增长的密 切相关，2025年全国居民人均可支配收入4.34万元，比上年名义增长5%。 具体来看，2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费税1.69万亿元，增长2%；企业所得 税4.13万亿元，增长1%；个人所得税1.62万亿元，增长11.5%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 31 日 如何看 2025 年财政数据与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？ 风险提示：数据测算有误差；政策实施节奏可能有变化。 点评报告 频率：每月 相关报告 1、《美联储的缄默法则——1 月美联储议息会议点评》2026- 01-29 2、《企业利润延续修复——— 2025 年 12 月工业企业利润分 析》2026-01-27 3、《通胀回归或为年内核心主 线———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-01-25 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 一般公共预算方面：1）2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入增速大幅回落， 税收与非税收入增速同步出现较大幅度下降。12 月一般公共预算收入当 月同比-25.0%（11 月为-0.0%），非税收入增速下降受去年同期高基数影 响，而税收收入增速下降主要与四季度经济增速快速下行有关。2）2025 年 12 月一般公共预算支出增速小幅回升，财政支出力度较 10-11 月略 ...

Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the general fiscal revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, down 1.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal expenditure was CNY 28.7 trillion, up 1.0% year-on-year[6] - The cumulative general fiscal revenue for 2025 was down 2.9% compared to the budgeted growth of 0.2%, while expenditure was up 3.7%, below the budgeted 9.3%[8] - The completion rate of the first account expenditure in 2025 was the lowest since 2003 at 96.8%, with infrastructure spending significantly reduced[8] December 2025 Insights - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in central non-tax revenue, which decreased by 51%[8] - General fiscal expenditure in December 2025 saw a marginal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, but showed signs of acceleration, particularly in infrastructure and service consumption[8] - The central government’s non-tax revenue in December 2025 was notably impacted by a high base effect from 2024, where actual revenue was 327% of the budgeted amount[8] Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, focusing on growth and debt management, with major economic provinces leading the efforts[8] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to reach CNY 1.1 trillion, an increase of CNY 0.2 trillion year-on-year, with early initiation of new special bonds contributing to this growth[8] - The fiscal strategy aims to support economic stability and growth through increased infrastructure and service sector investments[8]

记者丨 周潇枭 编辑丨张星 1月30日，财政部对外发布2025年财政收支数据。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入实现21.6万亿元，比上年下降1.7%。其中，税收收入约17.6万 亿元，增长0.8%；非税收入3.97万亿元，下降11.3%。 尽管财政收入小幅下降，但是财政支出仍在持续扩张，重点支出得到有效保障。2025年全国一 般公共预算支出28.7万亿元，比上年增长1%。 财政部副部长廖岷表示，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体 支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于 人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民收入。 （财政部召开2 0 2 5年度财政收支情况新闻发布会现场图，图片来源：财政部） 申报收入位居全国前1 0%的个人 缴纳个税占比九成以上 2025年全国一般公共预算收入较上年下降1.7%，主要在于2024年一次性安排中央单位上缴专 项收益抬高基数，税收收入保持小幅正增长。 具体来看，主体税种保持正增长。2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费 税1.69万亿元，增长2%；企业所得税4.13万亿元，增长1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal revenue and expenditure report indicates a decline in general public budget revenue by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure shows a modest increase of 1%, reflecting a focus on social welfare and key sectors such as education and health [1][5]. Revenue Summary - In 2025, the total general public budget revenue reached 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous year [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 17,636.3 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% to 3,968.2 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue decreased by 6.5% to 9,396.3 billion yuan, whereas local government revenue increased by 2.4% to 12,208.2 billion yuan [2]. - Key tax categories showed resilience, with domestic value-added tax growing by 3.4%, corporate income tax by 1%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3]. Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 28,739.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [5]. - Central government expenditure rose by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [5]. - Significant increases in spending were noted in social security and employment (6.7%), education (3.2%), and health (5.7%) [5][6]. - Approximately 100 billion yuan was allocated for childcare subsidies, marking a significant direct financial support initiative for families [6]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic team at Huatai Securities anticipates a notable increase in fiscal reserves and deposits post-September 2025, which will support a strong start for 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2025 did not meet targets, with significant challenges in revenue generation and expenditure efficiency [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, falling short of the target growth rate of 0.1% [3]. - December 2025 saw a drastic drop in revenue growth to -25%, with central revenue declining by 50.3% and tax revenue turning negative at -11.5% [3]. - The structure of tax revenue weakened, with declines in value-added tax, consumption tax, and corporate income tax, particularly a notable drop of 13.1 percentage points in corporate income tax [4]. Expenditure Analysis - National fiscal expenditure in 2025 reached 28.7 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of only 1%, below the target of 4.4% [6]. - The expenditure completion rate for the year was 96.8%, lower than the average of 98.9% over the past five years [6]. - Infrastructure spending saw a significant increase, with notable growth in agricultural and community spending, while other sectors experienced declines [8]. Government Fund Performance - The growth rate of government fund income was -7%, significantly below the budget target of 0.7%, with a completion rate of 92.3% for income [11]. - Government fund expenditure growth was 11.3%, also below the target of 23.1%, but the completion rate of 90.4% exceeded the five-year average of 86% [11].