Group 1 - The core conflict revolves around the Federal Reserve's independence being challenged by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration aiming for interest rate cuts to support its fiscal plans [3][12] - Trump's recent fiscal initiatives, including the "Great Beautiful Act," are projected to increase the budget deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, equating to 7.1% of GDP [3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal divisions, with decision-makers split into three factions regarding interest rate policies, marking the highest level of division in a decade [4] Group 2 - Economic data presents conflicting signals; while non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the private sector's job growth is largely dependent on specific industries, indicating underlying weaknesses [6] - The impact of tariffs is causing significant disruptions in global supply chains, with recent announcements of new tariffs on Canada and other countries creating uncertainty in trade relations [10] - Market reactions indicate a shift towards risk aversion, with a notable increase in the probability of interest rate cuts, while the upcoming earnings reports for U.S. companies are expected to face challenges due to rising effective tariff rates [11]