下一任美联储主席基本没有悬念，7年前预言"中美冷战长达20年"。对于中国而言，他将是个极为难缠 的对手。 多家美媒的最新报道称，特朗普计划提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任新一届美联储主席。一位知情人 士透露，沃什周四在白宫与特朗普会面期间，给后者留下了"深刻印象" 与此同时，预测市场最新的数据显示，沃什被提名为美联储新主席的概率已经飙升至95%，而排名第二 的候选人只有3%。 凯文・沃什并不是金融领域的新人，他有着完整的华尔街从业经历，还在 2006 年到 2011 年担任过美联 储理事，当年 35 岁的他是美联储历史上最年轻的理事之一，经历过 2008 年全球金融危机，熟悉美联储 的政策制定流程、全球资本流动规则，也清楚怎么用货币政策影响全球经济走向，同时他还和美国白 宫、共和党核心圈层联系紧密，既懂金融专业操作，又懂政治层面的利益博弈，这样的背景让他能完美 配合白宫的对外经济策略，这也是特朗普选中他的核心原因。 他还会针对人民币国际化发力，通过操控全球美元流向、联合美国盟友调整金融政策，干扰人民币在跨 境贸易、投资中的使用，试图守住美元在全球支付、结算中的垄断地位。 除此之外，他还会配合美国现有的贸易限制、 ...

When the Federal Reserve is under intense political scrutiny, the stakes extend well beyond Washington. The central bank’s decisions on interest rates directly shape borrowing costs, inflation, and long‑term investing conditions for households. President Donald Trump has spent months criticizing the Fed for not delivering deeper, faster rate cuts, even as inflation has eased from its post‑pandemic highs. That criticism is now tied to a criminal investigation that the Trump Justice Department has launche ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's intention to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair who supports significant interest rate cuts raises concerns about the independence of the central bank and the balance of power in monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Trump emphasizes the need for a Fed chair who believes in "substantial" rate cuts to alleviate mortgage burdens for American homeowners [1]. - Current candidates for the Fed chair, including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, are believed to support lowering rates from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, but none have committed to extreme low rates as suggested by Trump [1][2]. - Despite adjustments in the Fed's policy rates over the past year, mortgage rates have remained stable between 6.3%-6.4% since Labor Day, indicating the complexity of monetary policy transmission [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Independence - Trump's public statements challenge the long-standing tradition of respecting the Fed's independence, suggesting he should have a say in interest rate decisions [3]. - The pressure on the Fed reflects a broader global challenge to central bank independence, especially during economic slowdowns when political figures seek quick monetary relief [3]. - The independence of the Fed is crucial for ensuring that monetary policy serves long-term economic interests rather than short-term political pressures [4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is at a delicate juncture, with inflation still above target and a resilient labor market, necessitating a careful balance in the Fed's decision-making [3]. - Trump's desire for significant rate cuts, if disconnected from economic fundamentals, could undermine his goal of reducing mortgage rates and potentially lead to future inflation risks [3][4]. - The outcome of the Fed chair selection process will not only influence interest rate trends but also reflect the resilience of key institutions amid increasing political pressures [4].

12月10日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%之间。这是美联储年内第 三次降息。自再次执政以来，特朗普已多次公开指责美联储降息"动作迟缓"。尽管这一降息决定符合特 朗普的诉求，但他仍然批评降息幅度太小。这表明美联储与特朗普政府之间的分歧仍未有效弥合。外界 对未来美联储货币政策的研判，不能再仅依据传统的经济指标变化，更应考虑政治对货币政策的影响。 美联储内部的分歧也凸显货币政策政治化倾向。在本次美联储投票决定降息25个基点过程中，12名委员 中有3名投下反对票。这是自2019年以来出现反对票最多的情况，反映出美联储内部对于货币政策的分 歧正在加大。特朗普任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬•米兰投下反对票的理由是，他认为应降息50个基点。白 宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特表示，美联储有充足的降息空间，可能还需要进一步降息。特朗普则表示 降息幅度应扩大两倍。 减少财政债务利息支出是特朗普政府要求大幅降息的直接动因。截至2025年12月11日，美国国债超过 37.7万亿美元。按照3.5%的联邦基金利率测算，联邦政府每年需支付利息超过1.32万亿美元。而美联储 每降息一个百分点，联邦政府的债务利息 ...

随着2025年接近尾声，华尔街又到了展望新一年的时刻，阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）的首席经济学家正密切关注市场和经济前景面临的几大关键风险。 在12月4日的报告中，阿波罗全球资本首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）带领的团队提出了 2026年投资者应重点关注的五大核心市场风险（包括上行和下行风险）。以下是他重点关注的内容： 1. 美国经济重拾增长动能 斯洛克近期表示，他认为2026年美国经济增长可能会再次加速，因为贸易战风险正在消退，而《大而美 法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act，简称OBBBA）有望提振需求。 这一情景下的风险在于，强劲的经济增长将催生新的通胀压力。物价若重新攀升，对市场而言将是不小 的麻烦——因为投资者的看涨逻辑核心是美联储持续降息，而如果通胀再度飙升，美联储降息的意愿将 会大幅下降。 斯洛克认为，市场对AI的乐观情绪可能被高估，2026年AI泡沫或将破裂。他表示，若出现这种情 况，"七巨头"（Magnificent 7）股票可能引发大幅市场回调，同时大型科技巨头的资本支出也会随之减 少。 5. 债券供 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government experienced a record 40-day shutdown from October 1 to November 9, 2025, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from 2018-2019, primarily due to disputes over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidy extension [1][2] - The shutdown resulted in significant economic impacts, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a permanent output loss of approximately $14 billion and a potential decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth rate by 1-2 percentage points [4][5] - Key sectors such as aviation and agriculture faced severe disruptions, with Delta Airlines losing $8 million daily and 42 million low-income individuals experiencing food stamp issuance delays [4][6] Group 2 - The political standoff reflects deeper ideological conflicts between the two parties, with Republicans advocating for a "small government, low welfare" approach, while Democrats support "big government, high welfare" policies [3][4] - The involvement of interest groups intensified during the shutdown, with lobbying expenditures increasing by 40%, highlighting the intertwining of political and economic interests [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence faced challenges, with internal divisions leading to unclear monetary policy signals, impacting market expectations and investment decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The shutdown's impact on consumer confidence was notable, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping to its lowest level in over three years, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with Congress [4][5] - The market reacted negatively to the uncertainty, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 3% in one week, marking its worst performance since April [9][10] - The shutdown has led to a potential long-term economic slowdown, with forecasts indicating a GDP growth rate of only 1.0% for the fourth quarter, down from previous expectations [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve is impacting the economy through exchange rates, prices, and investment returns, challenging the independence of the Fed, which is a cornerstone of the modern financial system [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The detachment of the dollar from gold in 1971 led to the "stagflation" of the 1970s, with inflation peaking at 12.3%, resulting in soaring prices and unemployment [3]. - The painful experience of the 1970s highlighted the necessity of entrusting monetary policy to independent technocrats rather than short-sighted politicians [3]. Group 2: Current Dynamics - Trump's real estate background drives his instinctive pursuit of low interest rates and easy credit, conflicting with the Fed's mission to prevent a repeat of the 1970s economic nightmare [3]. - The Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, exemplified by a mere 25 basis point reduction, contrasts sharply with Trump's demand for aggressive rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Implications for the Economy - If Trump succeeds, a short-term asset bubble may lead to severe inflation, diluting the purchasing power of deposits and reshuffling societal wealth [4]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its stance, the economy may endure short-term pain but lay the groundwork for long-term health [4]. Group 4: Global Impact - Fluctuations in the dollar, as a global reserve currency, can trigger capital flow effects, with Fed rate cuts potentially leading to capital inflows into emerging markets, while rate hikes could cause capital withdrawals and financial crises in other countries [6]. - Chinese investors are advised to adapt to volatility, seek quality assets that can withstand inflation, and avoid poor liabilities like consumer loans [6]. - In the current complex global environment, the stable development of the Chinese market is seen as a primary choice for attracting capital, particularly focusing on quality assets in the technology sector [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate approved Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, which exceeded market expectations. Milan will participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting immediately after his confirmation [1] - The market anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 95.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October is 73.8% [2] - President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell for immediate and larger rate cuts, raising concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence is evident through his nomination of loyalists like Milan and potential changes to the board's composition, which could lead to a more accommodating monetary policy [3] - The recent downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data by 911,000 jobs is the largest on record, raising doubts about the actual strength of the U.S. labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and economic projections are critical, as the market is focused not just on whether a rate cut will occur, but also on the Fed's credibility amid political pressures [5] Group 3 - Economic scenarios post-rate cut will vary; a soft landing could lead to intermittent rate cuts, affecting asset performance differently, with potential for a weaker dollar and lower bond yields [6] - The market's reaction to rate cuts will depend on the economic context, with stock markets potentially facing pressure if recession fears rise, while bond markets may see a steeper yield curve due to inflation expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, nominated by Trump, and their possible impacts on the Fed's future and global capital markets. Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Hassett**: Current Director of the National Economic Council, long-time economic advisor to Trump, and architect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. He advocates for interest rate cuts and believes the Fed should align with government economic goals, downplaying inflation risks. His controversial past includes data falsification in 2007 and pandemic prediction failures in 2020. If elected, he may accelerate rate cuts, stimulating short-term growth but risking long-term inflation and dollar depreciation, raising concerns about central bank independence [1][2][4]. - **Christopher Waller**: Current Fed Governor and former research director at the St. Louis Fed, he is a monetary policy expert. He supports data-driven rate cuts and emphasizes balancing political pressures with central bank independence. Waller is seen as the most favorable candidate, with a 45% chance of being elected, potentially leading to stable policies and moderate rate cuts that could benefit risk assets while keeping dollar volatility manageable [4][5]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Former Fed Governor who participated in crisis management and has a strong financial background. He has called for coordination between the Fed and Treasury, which could undermine independence. Recently, he has shifted to support rate cuts, but his historical inconsistency raises uncertainty. If elected, his policies may increase market volatility and support the dollar in the short term, but long-term independence concerns could elevate risk premiums [4][5]. Impacts on the Fed and Global Capital Markets - Both Hassett and Warsh's tendencies towards political interference in monetary policy could undermine the Fed's credibility, while Waller's approach focuses on balance. All three candidates support rate cuts, suggesting a potential shift towards easing monetary policy by 2026, ending the current high-rate cycle [4][5]. - **Short-term Effects**: Hassett's election could lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, while Waller's leadership may support a moderate recovery in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [5]. - **Long-term Risks**: The politicization of monetary policy could exacerbate global inflation pressures, with emerging markets needing to guard against capital outflows and currency shocks. The final candidate is yet to be announced, with expectations for a decision before May 2026, making the upcoming Fed meetings critical for market participants [5].

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the selection of Federal Reserve board members and interest rate policy movements, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting is at 89.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 10.4% [1] - Economic data shows weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months and the core PCE price index growth slowing to 2.8% [3] Group 2 - There are concerns about political interference as the Trump administration is reportedly considering replacing three Federal Reserve board members, raising questions about the independence of monetary policy [4] - The statement from Treasury Secretary Becerra serves to reassure the market, highlighting that the White House does not seek to disrupt the current monetary policy framework [4] - The market is divided in its expectations for the third quarter economic data, with optimistic views supporting moderate rate cuts and pessimistic views fearing a wave of corporate debt defaults leading to deeper easing [4]