Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve is impacting the economy through exchange rates, prices, and investment returns, challenging the independence of the Fed, which is a cornerstone of the modern financial system [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The detachment of the dollar from gold in 1971 led to the "stagflation" of the 1970s, with inflation peaking at 12.3%, resulting in soaring prices and unemployment [3]. - The painful experience of the 1970s highlighted the necessity of entrusting monetary policy to independent technocrats rather than short-sighted politicians [3]. Group 2: Current Dynamics - Trump's real estate background drives his instinctive pursuit of low interest rates and easy credit, conflicting with the Fed's mission to prevent a repeat of the 1970s economic nightmare [3]. - The Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, exemplified by a mere 25 basis point reduction, contrasts sharply with Trump's demand for aggressive rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Implications for the Economy - If Trump succeeds, a short-term asset bubble may lead to severe inflation, diluting the purchasing power of deposits and reshuffling societal wealth [4]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its stance, the economy may endure short-term pain but lay the groundwork for long-term health [4]. Group 4: Global Impact - Fluctuations in the dollar, as a global reserve currency, can trigger capital flow effects, with Fed rate cuts potentially leading to capital inflows into emerging markets, while rate hikes could cause capital withdrawals and financial crises in other countries [6]. - Chinese investors are advised to adapt to volatility, seek quality assets that can withstand inflation, and avoid poor liabilities like consumer loans [6]. - In the current complex global environment, the stable development of the Chinese market is seen as a primary choice for attracting capital, particularly focusing on quality assets in the technology sector [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate approved Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, which exceeded market expectations. Milan will participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting immediately after his confirmation [1] - The market anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 95.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October is 73.8% [2] - President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell for immediate and larger rate cuts, raising concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence is evident through his nomination of loyalists like Milan and potential changes to the board's composition, which could lead to a more accommodating monetary policy [3] - The recent downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data by 911,000 jobs is the largest on record, raising doubts about the actual strength of the U.S. labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and economic projections are critical, as the market is focused not just on whether a rate cut will occur, but also on the Fed's credibility amid political pressures [5] Group 3 - Economic scenarios post-rate cut will vary; a soft landing could lead to intermittent rate cuts, affecting asset performance differently, with potential for a weaker dollar and lower bond yields [6] - The market's reaction to rate cuts will depend on the economic context, with stock markets potentially facing pressure if recession fears rise, while bond markets may see a steeper yield curve due to inflation expectations [6]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 为削弱美联储现任主席鲍威尔的影响力，特朗普已经提名了三位美联储主 席候选人。他们分别是白宫现任国家经济委员会主任哈希特、美联储现任 理事沃勒，以及前美联储理事沃什，他们都有哪些背景和成就，将对美联 储前景及全球资本市场带来什么影响？ 下任美联储主席将于2026年5月15日鲍威尔任期结束后正式就职，不过为了削弱鲍威尔的影响力，特朗普早已经采取了行动。 特朗普提名三位美联储主席候选人，谁有希望胜出？ 特朗普已提名三位美联储主席候选人，他们分别是凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）、克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。 让我们来分别观察他们的背景、政策立场及潜在影响。 一是凯文·哈西特。 他是白宫现任国家经济委员会主任，特朗普长期经济顾问，主导《减税与就业法案》设计。曾任美国企业研究所资深研究员，专注税 收政策，但学术争议较大（如2007年数据造假争议、2020年疫情预测失误）。 哈西特主张降息，配合特朗普关税政策，认为美联储应服务于政府经济目标，淡化通胀风险。他的立场遭到了外界的批评，认为这可能会削弱美联储的独 立性。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the selection of Federal Reserve board members and interest rate policy movements, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting is at 89.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 10.4% [1] - Economic data shows weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months and the core PCE price index growth slowing to 2.8% [3] Group 2 - There are concerns about political interference as the Trump administration is reportedly considering replacing three Federal Reserve board members, raising questions about the independence of monetary policy [4] - The statement from Treasury Secretary Becerra serves to reassure the market, highlighting that the White House does not seek to disrupt the current monetary policy framework [4] - The market is divided in its expectations for the third quarter economic data, with optimistic views supporting moderate rate cuts and pessimistic views fearing a wave of corporate debt defaults leading to deeper easing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent political maneuver by Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook under the pretext of "loan fraud" directly targets Fed Chair Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has been claimed to be autonomous since its establishment in 1913 [1][4]. Group 1: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The independence of the Federal Reserve is described as "half-hearted," as it operates within the realm of U.S. electoral politics, suggesting that Trump's actions expose the underlying political manipulation of monetary policy [4][12]. - Trump's potential success in removing Cook could undermine the perceived professionalism of U.S. dollar policy, transforming the Fed into a tool for presidential agendas, thereby eroding the foundations of dollar hegemony [4][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculation - There is speculation that Trump and Powell may be collaborating to create a narrative that suggests a high likelihood of interest rate cuts, which has led to significant market reactions, including a surge in stock prices and a drop in bond yields [5][7]. - The market's enthusiastic response to vague signals from Powell indicates a disconnect between actual monetary policy intentions and market perceptions, leading to a self-deceptive cycle [5][11]. Group 3: Risks of False Certainty - The article warns that the Federal Reserve may be hesitant to implement rate cuts due to the looming fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $1.8 trillion, which could further weaken the dollar and increase capital flight risks [8][12]. - The concept of "false certainty" is highlighted, where market participants may become complacent, leading to potential financial instability as historical patterns suggest that such illusions often precede market crashes [11][14]. Group 4: Systemic Concerns - The broader concern is that U.S. politicians are treating monetary policy as a short-term political tool, which could ultimately undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to a loss of trust among global investors [12][14]. - The article posits that the real threat to the dollar's dominance comes not from external challenges but from internal political actions that compromise its integrity [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent political maneuvering by Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook under the pretext of "loan fraud" highlights a significant conflict between Trump and Fed Chair Powell regarding interest rate policies, potentially threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve is a "semi-private" institution, and direct government intervention, especially under allegations of fraud, is unprecedented and could lead to a Supreme Court case [3]. - If the court supports Trump, it could undermine the Fed's independence established since its inception in 1913, leading to the politicization of monetary policy [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Trump's actions may be a strategic play to create the illusion that the Fed will definitely lower interest rates in September, as indicated by Powell's recent comments that sparked a significant market rally [3][5]. - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a rate cut surged from 40% to 90%, resulting in a substantial increase in stock prices and a drop in bond yields [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - A rate cut would imply an admission of failure in combating inflation, with the U.S. fiscal deficit projected to exceed $1.8 trillion this year, raising concerns about the sustainability of high-interest payments [5]. - The potential for a weakened dollar and capital flight raises questions about the Fed's willingness to take such risks, as they have not made any firm commitments regarding rate cuts [5][7]. Group 4: Long-term Risks - The creation of a "false certainty" in the market could lead to a significant financial disaster if the anticipated rate cut does not materialize, as history shows that false prosperity often precedes collapse [7]. - The real danger lies in the erosion of market trust due to misleading signals, which could ultimately threaten the dominance of the dollar [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with potential implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [1][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to file a lawsuit regarding her dismissal by President Trump [3][4]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that lowering interest rates may be appropriate at the right time, while maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance [1]. - The Trump administration is exploring ways to exert more influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, particularly regarding the selection process for regional bank presidents [1][5]. Group 2: Implications for Fed Independence - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could signify the end of the Fed's independence, a status it has held since 1951, with financial markets yet to fully absorb this significant risk [1][11]. - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard views Trump's attack on Cook as part of a broader effort to pressure the Fed, potentially leading to the dismissal of multiple regional Fed presidents [6][8]. - The potential for Trump to control the Fed's monetary policy could result in higher inflation and increased volatility in the financial markets [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Current market conditions reflect a distortion in the Treasury market, with long-term yields rising and short-term real yields falling, indicating that the Fed's independence is perceived to be under threat [12]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that if Trump successfully removes Cook and appoints a candidate favoring significant rate cuts, the power dynamics within the Fed could shift dramatically, leading to a majority of "dovish" votes [12].

Group 1 - The core issue is the rare public confrontation between the President and the Federal Reserve, with Trump labeling the Fed as the "biggest enemy" of the U.S. economy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed [2][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial due to the inherent conflict between political short-term interests and the long-term goals of economic stability and inflation control [3] - Historical precedents show that political interference in monetary policy can lead to severe inflation, as seen in the 1970s, highlighting the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence [3] Group 2 - If Trump is re-elected in 2024, he may influence Fed decisions through appointments, potentially leading to aggressive interest rate cuts and subsequent inflation risks [4] - The politicalization of monetary policy could challenge the international status of the dollar, benefiting alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [4] - The current conflict reflects the deepening political polarization in the U.S., necessitating investors to be cautious of "black swan" risks, including a decline in dollar credibility and sudden policy shifts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for increased market volatility and inflation risks [1][6][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - This is the first time in history that a U.S. president has directly dismissed a Federal Reserve board member since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [1][6]. - Lisa Cook was appointed by President Biden in 2022, and her term was set to last until 2038 [6][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Dismissal - Trump cited alleged mortgage loan fraud as the reason for Cook's dismissal, claiming she misrepresented her properties to obtain lower loan rates [6][8]. - Cook's lawyer announced plans to sue Trump, challenging the legality of the dismissal [3][6]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts argue that Trump's actions threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to political interference in monetary policy [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's response emphasized that board members have long-term fixed terms and can only be dismissed for "cause," which typically involves serious misconduct [7][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Cook's dismissal, there was a notable drop in the 2-year Treasury yield and fluctuations in the stock and gold markets, indicating market concerns over the Fed's independence [12][13]. - Analysts predict that if Trump's influence over the Fed increases, it could lead to more uncertainty in monetary policy and financial markets [10][12]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Trump is reportedly seeking to appoint new members to the Fed, which could shift the balance of power within the board [8][10]. - The potential for increased political influence on monetary policy raises questions about the Fed's ability to manage inflation effectively in the long term [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board, which has significant implications for U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Fed [1][4][20] Group 1: Importance of Federal Reserve Board Nomination - The Federal Reserve Board has seven members responsible for setting national monetary policy, supervising financial institutions, and managing liquidity and inflation expectations [5] - The recent vacancy due to the resignation of a board member provides Trump with a critical opportunity to influence the Fed's direction, especially amid current economic challenges [5][9] - The new appointee could shift the balance within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting interest rates and asset pricing [5][8] Group 2: Potential Nominees - Trump may consider several candidates, including Scott Basset, Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, each with distinct policy orientations [9][12] - Basset is closely aligned with Trump and supports aggressive rate cuts, while Walsh has a more moderate stance with a history at the Fed [9][12] - The choice of nominee will likely affect the Senate confirmation process and the future direction of monetary policy [12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Trump's announcement, bond markets reacted swiftly, with increased expectations for early rate cuts [13] - Concerns have emerged regarding the potential erosion of the Fed's independence, which could undermine the dollar's status as a safe asset [17][20] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that political interference in central bank independence could jeopardize macroeconomic stability and market confidence [20]