Group 1 - The U.S. delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [1] - The U.S. delegation includes Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bensent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected [2] - Silver: Continued to soar [2] - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated [2] - Zinc: Traded sideways [2] - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations [2] - Tin: Driven up by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Upside elasticity was limited, and nickel prices were under pressure at low levels [2] - Stainless steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and steel prices recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.88, down 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 777.00, up 0.19%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8919, down 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 8931.00, up 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed compared with the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged at 18,456 kilograms, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2133 kilograms to 1,340,792 kilograms [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was - 1, and silver trend intensity was 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,730, down 1.03%, and the night - session closing price was 79720, down 0.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 17,176 to 100,562, and the position decreased by 8,934 to 215,738 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,796 tons to 22,307 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 950 tons to 95,275 tons [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22410, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 20897 to 153571, and the position increased by 66 to 128000 [13]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 647 tons to 7246 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 112325 tons [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17295, up 0.29%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 10116 to 24330, and the position decreased by 1206 to 51672 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory remained unchanged at 46439 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 263275 tons [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 1 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420, down 0.04%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 16,735 to 57,264, and the position decreased by 923 to 30,442 [18][19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 6 tons to 6,882 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,165 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,730. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed compared with previous periods [22][23]. - **Industry News**: In March, Ontario, Canada, might stop exporting nickel to the US; in April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; an Indonesian nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [28]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, stated that trade negotiations with the European Union are progressing [1] - The U.S. has leverage in the negotiations with the EU [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is currently up 0.1%, trading at $108,000, and has shown a W-shaped trend today [1]

Group 1 - The euro has appreciated by 0.2% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.1779 [1] - The US has threatened to impose a 17% trade tax on EU agricultural exports [1] - EU diplomats indicated that negotiators have not made progress in trade talks with the US, with discussions set to continue over the weekend [1] Group 2 - EU negotiators are considering ensuring an extension of the tariff suspension period if a broader trade agreement cannot be reached [1]

Group 1 - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that trade negotiations with Canada will "absolutely" resume [1] - The progress of trade negotiations with Japan and the European Union will be monitored [1] - A threat was issued regarding the maintenance of the digital services tax status quo for Japan and the European Union [1]

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union are progressing, as stated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1] - Both parties have reached a consensus regarding the deadline of July 9 for these discussions [1]

粕类油脂丨日报 s 2024 年 6 月 11 日 MPOB 确认 5 月增产利多出尽，等待 USDA 月报 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 4、国家粮油信息中心监测显示，6 月 6 日，全国主要油厂进口大 豆库存 674.1 万吨，周环比上升 30 万吨，月环比上升 83 万吨，同比 上升 64 万吨，较过去三年均值上升 100 万吨；主要油厂豆粕库存 39 万吨，周环比上升 8 万吨，月环比上升 29 万吨，同比下降 52 万吨， 仍处于历史同期较低。 （二）棕榈系油脂 1、马来西亚棕榈油局 MPOB 的月报，产量和出口高于路透社前瞻 数据，月末库存低于路透社前瞻数据：马来西亚 5 月棕榈油产量为 1771621 吨，环比增长 5.05%。马来西亚 5 月棕榈油出口为 1387236 吨，环比增长 25.62%。马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存量为 1990154 吨，环 比增长 6.65%。 2、据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-10 日棕榈 油出口量为 327355 吨，较上月同期出口的 302908 吨增加 8.07%。船 运调查机构 ITS 数据显示，马来西亚 6 月 1-10 日 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The ongoing high tariffs between the US and China are likely to exacerbate shortages of daily necessities in the US, while also negatively impacting China's economy due to declining export revenues [1][3]. Group 1: Export Trends - In April, China's exports to the US saw significant declines across various categories, with smartphones down 70%, game consoles down 45%, and thermos bottles down 40%, leading to an overall export decrease of 21% [2]. - The decline in exports is particularly pronounced in household appliances and daily necessities, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports, accounting for 80-90% of the US market [1][2]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115% on May 14, but the current tariff rates remain higher than those before the Trump administration [1][3]. - If high tariffs persist, there is a risk of further shortages and price increases for daily goods in the US, which could lead to a significant economic impact on China as well [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Projections - Estimates suggest that if the current 30% tariffs remain in place, China's exports to the US could decrease by 30% over the next two years, potentially lowering China's GDP by approximately 0.9% [4]. - The high tariff burden may squeeze corporate profits, reduce equipment investment, and lead to job losses in China, contributing to an overall economic slowdown [3][4].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with a trading volume of 1.33 trillion, slightly down by approximately 100 billion from the previous trading day, with over half of the sectors showing gains, particularly in banking, pharmaceuticals, and transportation, while military, computing, machinery, and electronics sectors faced declines [1] - The positive developments in trade negotiations have been quickly reflected in the market, although the absolute tariff levels remain high, indicating ongoing uncertainties in future negotiations [1] - Despite the high opening and subsequent decline, the potential for continued upward movement in the market remains significant, as the trade war and its dynamics may be long-term, with the recent rebound reflecting the market's recognition of these factors [1] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sector saw some gains but experienced a pullback, driven by rumors of production cuts and supply preservation in the silicon material industry, which have not been officially confirmed, suggesting that this sector may only offer short-term trading opportunities until a significant improvement in the industry fundamentals is observed [2] - The military sector's short-term adjustments have not altered its main position in the market, with the logic for mid-term valuation restructuring becoming stronger [3] Fund Flow - On May 13, the net outflow of funds from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 6.58 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 96.72 billion. The sectors with the highest inflows included large state-owned banks, photovoltaic equipment, and joint-stock banks, while the sectors with the largest outflows were military electronics, consumer electronics, and semiconductors [5] Industry Dynamics - The release of the "Precision Denitrification Technology for Magnesium Smelting Industry" marks a global innovation, filling a gap in China's magnesium smelting industry regarding flue gas denitrification technology, with the potential to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by approximately 10,000 tons annually, achieving a 70% reduction in emissions [11] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is focusing on optimizing domestic transfer services and enhancing the quality of international route operations, aiming to boost market consumption vitality in the civil aviation sector [12] - Sichuan Province has introduced policies to support the development of low-altitude economy, providing financial support of up to 30% for projects related to large drones, eVTOLs, and flying cars, with a maximum funding limit of 20 million [13] Fund Dynamics - The private equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the number of billion-level private equity firms reaching 87, an increase of 3 since the end of March, driven by a gradual recovery in the issuance market [14] - The Shenzhen Semiconductor and Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has been established with a total scale of 5 billion, primarily investing in key projects and leading enterprises in Shenzhen's semiconductor industry [15][16]