Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 14, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 102,680, the LME spot price was 13,158, and the spot price ratio was 7.85; the domestic three - month price was 102,480, the LME three - month price was 13,068, and the three - month price ratio was 7.85. The equilibrium price ratio for spot imports was 7.92 [1] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 24,330, the LME spot price was not provided; the domestic three - month price was 24,280, the LME three - month price was 3,204, and the three - month price ratio was 5.41 [1] - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 24,300, the LME spot price was not provided; the domestic three - month price was 24,375, the LME three - month price was 3,165, and the three - month price ratio was 7.74 [1] - **Nickel**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 139,850, the LME spot price was not provided. The profit for spot imports was 1,072.78 [1] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the domestic spot price was 17,200, the LME spot price was 2,010, and the spot price ratio was 8.54; the domestic three - month price was 17,360, the LME three - month price was 2,054, and the three - month price ratio was 11.81. The profit for spot imports was 18.63, and the equilibrium price ratio for spot imports was 8.53 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 1140, - 950, - 800, and - 720 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 619, 1136, 1662, and 2189 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 105, 150, 185, and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 224, 353, 483, and 613 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 260, - 190, - 145, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 234, 369, 503, and 638 respectively [4] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 95, - 45, 0, and 25 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 3350, - 3160, - 2820, and - 2530 respectively [4] - **Tin**: On January 14, 2026, the spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 2000, and the theoretical spread was 7802 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 965 and - 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 219 and 619 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 200 and - 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 61 and 202 (also mentioned as 119 and 225) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: On January 14, 2026, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 205 and 110 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 110 and 224 respectively [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 14, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (triple - continuous) contracts were 4.22, 4.20, 5.90, 1.00, 1.40, and 0.71 respectively; the ratios for the London (triple - continuous) contracts of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, and copper/lead were 4.11, 4.12, and 6.39 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 9, 2026 [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 9, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101970, the LME spot price was 12837, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.93, with a loss of 941.12. The loss for spot export was 1194.91 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24180, the LME spot price was 3126, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1929.08 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24000, the LME spot price was 3064, and the spot ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1591.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146650, the LME spot price was 16961, and the spot ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.02, with a profit of 1776.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17350, the LME spot price was 1988, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.59, with a profit of 228.79 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, the third month, the fourth month, and the fifth month and the spot month were - 1950, - 1920, - 1940, - 2010 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 618, 1134, 1659, 2183 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 340, - 305, - 270, - 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 625, - 585, - 540, - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 367, 500, 634 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 420, - 385, - 350, - 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 324, 433, 543 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 10960, - 10810, - 10510, - 10150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 900, and the theoretical spread was 7176 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract, the next - month contract and the spot were 1145, - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 378, 656 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 135, - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 69, 209 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 158, 273 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 9, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.22, 4.26, 5.83, 0.99, 1.37, 0.72 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.06, 4.12, 6.28, 0.99, 1.53, 0.65 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on January 8, 2026 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic spot price was 103400, the LME spot price was 13135, and the spot ratio was 7.99. The domestic three - month price was 103600, the LME three - month price was 13121, and the three - month ratio was 7.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.94, with a profit of - 1162.96, and the profit for spot export was 30.61 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24300, the LME spot price was 3196, and the spot ratio was 7.60. The domestic three - month price was 24370, the LME three - month price was 3242, and the three - month ratio was 5.46. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24140, the LME spot price was 3100, and the spot ratio was 7.79. The domestic three - month price was 24410, the LME three - month price was 3118, and the three - month ratio was 7.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 148450, the LME spot price was 18331, and the spot ratio was 8.10. The profit for spot import was 184.80 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17575, the LME spot price was 2037, and the spot ratio was 8.58. The domestic three - month price was 17845, the LME three - month price was 2080, and the three - month ratio was 11.63 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the spreads for the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 1920, - 1730, - 1650, and - 1640 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 629, 1155, 1691, and 2227 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 55, 95, 140, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 355, 485, and 616 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 75, 125, 175, and 220, and the theoretical spreads were 232, 366, 499, and 633 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 340, 355, 375, and 400, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 321, 429, and 538 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 8310, 8840, 9030, and 9450 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1800, and the theoretical spread was 7346 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 1960 and 40, and the theoretical spreads were 505 and 796 [4][5] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 25 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 248 (in doc 4) and 130 and 284 (in doc 5) - **Lead**: The spreads were - 85 and 255, and the theoretical spreads were 91 and 208 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 8, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.25, 4.24, 5.81, 1.00, 1.37, and 0.73 respectively, and for LME (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.07, 4.18, 6.26, 0.98, 1.50, and 0.65 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts that copper prices will rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months due to bullish momentum, but may peak this month unless new catalysts emerge [1][2]. Price Forecast - Citigroup maintains its forecast for the average copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) at $13,000 per ton for the second to fourth quarters [1][2]. Bullish Logic - The bullish logic driving copper prices includes market momentum, further upward positioning, and solid bullish fundamentals, which are expected to support short-term price increases [1][2]. - Key factors mentioned include U.S. cross-market arbitrage and tariff-related dynamics, demand and growth expectations, constrained copper supply, and currency depreciation tail risks [1][2]. Price Confidence - The company expresses insufficient confidence in current copper price levels, suggesting that if prices exceed $13,000 per ton, subsequent gains are likely to be retraced [1][2]. Supply and Demand Balance - Citigroup believes that the current price level will stimulate more scrap copper supply, promote the use of substitutes, and encourage copper conservation, leading to a balanced global copper spot market by 2026 [1][2]. Cross-Market Arbitrage - The sentiment of cross-market arbitrage between the LME and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) is identified as a core pillar supporting recent copper price increases, though it is susceptible to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Tariff Expectations - Citigroup's basic expectation is that refined copper tariffs will ultimately not be implemented or will be alleviated through exemptions for U.S. regional partners such as Chile [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 5, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 98790, LME spot is 12526, ratio is 7.86; March price is 98380, LME March is 12496, ratio is 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.94 with a profit of - 1808.32, spot export profit is - 455.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23310, LME spot is 3081, ratio is 7.56; March price is 23310, LME March is 3117, ratio is 5.52. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.36 with a profit of - 2455.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22460, LME spot is 2966, ratio is 7.57; March price is 22950, LME March is 2993, ratio is 7.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33 with a profit of - 2249.88 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 135050, LME spot is 16455, ratio is 8.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.03 with a profit of 1259.30 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17150, LME spot is 1971, ratio is 8.69; March price is 17360, LME March is 2015, ratio is 11.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.60 with a profit of 177.81 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 560, - 420, - 420, - 450 respectively, theoretical spreads are 596, 1090, 1593, 2096 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 90, - 65, - 20 respectively, theoretical spreads are 220, 346, 472, 598 [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 25, 0, 30, 65 respectively, theoretical spreads are 226, 353, 479, 606 [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 45, 55, 50 respectively, theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2450, 2650, 2930, 3220 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is - 3570, theoretical spread is 6744 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 15, - 545 respectively, theoretical spreads are 327, 790 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 124, 259 [4] - **Zinc (repeated data)**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 204, 335 [5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 165, 205 respectively, theoretical spreads are 150, 264 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.22, 4.29, 5.67, 0.98, 1.32, 0.74 in Shanghai and 3.98, 4.15, 6.18, 0.96, 1.49, 0.65 in London [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 31, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 97,700, LME price was 12,516, and the ratio was 7.86; the three - month domestic price was 98,240, LME price was 12,477, and the ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.95 with a profit of - 1,171.20 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,290, LME price was 3,091, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 23,420, LME price was 3,123, and the ratio was 5.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37 with a profit of - 2,576.06 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 22,180, LME price was 2,941, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 22,620, LME price was 2,974, and the ratio was 7.54. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2,321.75 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 131,750, LME price was 16,358, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.04 with a profit of 1,259.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME price was 1,979, and the ratio was 8.74; the three - month domestic price was 17,510, LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 11.48. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60 with a profit of 273.72 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were - 630, - 480, - 420, and - 460 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 596, 1089, 1592, and 2094 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 180, 220, 265, and 295, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 344, 469, and 594 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 105, 145, and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 348, 473, and 597 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 70, 70, and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for 次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were 7,080, 7,360, 7,630, and 7,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1,410, and the theoretical spread was 6,712 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 1,150 and 520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 489 and 936 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 90 and 90, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 282 (also mentioned 185 and 325) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 136 and 252 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.19, 4.34, 5.61, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in Shanghai (three - consecutive) and 4.02, 4.21, 6.25, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 in London (three - consecutive) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 30, 2025, offering insights for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 100950 domestically and 12584 on LME with a ratio of 7.80; March price is 98940 domestically and 12553 on LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.96 with a loss of 1855.70 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23380 domestically and 3086 on LME with a ratio of 7.58; March price is 23285 domestically and 3116 on LME with a ratio of 5.65. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.38 with a loss of 2484.97 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22490 domestically and 2934 on LME with a ratio of 7.66; March price is 22625 domestically and 2972 on LME with a ratio of 7.66. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.34 with a loss of 1994.64 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 130850 domestically and 15520 on LME with a ratio of 8.43. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.05 with a profit of 1196.97 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17475 domestically and 1967 on LME with a ratio of 8.83; March price is 17465 domestically and 2011 on LME with a ratio of 11.63. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.62 with a profit of 421.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 260, 340, 400, 390; theoretical differences are 595, 1088, 1590, 2092 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 55, 85, 130, 130; theoretical differences are 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - **Aluminum**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 235, 290, 325, 340; theoretical differences are 223, 346, 470, 594 [4] - **Lead**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 50, - 75, - 95, - 125; theoretical differences are 213, 321, 430, 539 [4] - **Nickel**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 730, - 410, - 140, 200 [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 difference is 1320 with a theoretical difference of 6865 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 2120 and - 1860; theoretical differences are 26 and 620 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 180 and - 125; theoretical differences are 119 and 288 [5] - **Lead**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are 65 and 15; theoretical differences are 144 and 260 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 4.25, 4.37, 5.67, 0.97, 1.30, 0.75 in Shanghai and 3.96, 4.14, 6.09, 0.96, 1.47, 0.65 in London [8]

Group 1: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Domestic spot price is 97,800, three - month price is 98,860, LME three - month price is 12,133, and the ratio is 8.11 [1] Zinc - Domestic spot price is 23,200, three - month price is 23,215, LME three - month price is 3,087, and the ratio is 5.62 [1] Aluminum - Domestic spot price is 22,020, three - month price is 22,470, LME three - month price is 2,957, and the ratio is 7.54 [1] Nickel - Domestic spot price is 128,750, and the profit from spot import is 45.32 [1] Lead - Domestic spot price is 17,225, three - month price is 17,535, LME three - month price is 2,000, and the ratio is 11.58 [3] Group 2: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,730, 2,870, 2,930, and 2,910 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 582, 1,062, 1,551, and 2,040 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 140, 185, 230, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 466, and 591 respectively [4] Aluminum - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 210, 275, 300, and 345 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 345, 468, and 591 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 275, 255, 255, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 respectively [4] Nickel - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1,770, 2,050, 2,410, and 2,860 respectively [4] Tin - The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,350, and the theoretical spread is 6,941 [4] Group 3: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1,740 and 990 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 149 and 1,087 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 170 and - 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 146 and 281 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 55 and 330 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 153 and 268 respectively [5] Group 4: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.26, 4.40, 5.64, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.76 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 25, 2025, which can help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 94,660, LME price is 12,243, and the ratio is 7.62; March domestic price is 96,230, LME price is 12,224, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.98, with a loss of 2,003.83, and a profit of 1,716.73 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,097, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,126, and the ratio is 5.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a loss of 2,720.57 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 22,030, LME price is 2,933, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 22,385, LME price is 2,968, and the ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.35, with a loss of 2,479.20 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 129,900, LME price is 15,697, and the ratio is 8.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.06, with a profit of 45.32 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,025, LME price is 1,960, and the ratio is 8.69; March domestic price is 17,200, LME price is 1,998, and the ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.63, with a profit of 106.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,360, 2,490, 2,530, and 2,560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 571, 1,039, 1,517, and 1,995 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 165, 205, 235, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 200, 255, 275, and 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 344, 467, and 590 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 220, 245, and 255 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, and 528 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 4,960, 5,210, 5,370, and 5,720 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,660, and the theoretical spread is 7,006 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 920 and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 302 and 1,169 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 205 and - 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 154 and 290 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 45 and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 259 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.14, 4.30, 5.59, 0.96, 1.30, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.94, 4.11, 6.10, 0.96, 1.48, and 0.65 respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor. Platinum and palladium are also rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US Q3 GDP recorded 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, causing a temporary decline in gold and silver prices, which later recovered. Geopolitical risks in regions like the US - Venezuela and Israel - Iran have intensified, and the new all - time high of gold has strengthened the overall trend of precious metals [1] - Although the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued policies to increase margin requirements and limit positions for platinum and palladium, the actual delivery business will start on May 1, 2026, so long - position funds remain active. Long - position funds in the far - month contracts are crowded, and platinum and palladium hit the daily limit [1] - The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has attracted wide attention. The price difference between domestic and foreign active contracts is expected to attract cross - market arbitrage funds when it exceeds 40 yuan/gram. The market is mainly driven by domestic funds, and the foreign platinum price has hit a new high. The upper price limit lacks a reference range, so focus on tracking capital movements. With the Christmas holiday approaching, foreign trading volume will decline, and attention should be paid to capital trends. Tonight, focus on the early - released US weekly initial jobless claims [1] Other Key Points from Related Information ADP Employment Report - In the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week [2] Statements from Trump and Fed Candidates - Trump said those who disagree with him will never become Fed chair [2] - Hassett, the next Fed candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Fed is far behind the curve on interest - rate cuts [2] Suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed should discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [3] Holiday Trading Suspensions - Due to the Christmas Eve holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the Brent crude oil futures contract trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end at 3:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the US Treasury bond futures contract trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end at 3:30 am Beijing time on the 25th [3]