Core Viewpoint - Argentina's inflation rate for 2025 is projected to be 31.5%, marking a decrease of 86.3 percentage points compared to 2024, which is the lowest level in nearly eight years [1] Group 1 - The inflation rate for 2025 is expected to be 31.5% [1] - The decrease of 86.3 percentage points indicates a significant improvement in the economic outlook [1] - This projected inflation rate is the lowest recorded in the past eight years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, indicated that the inflation rate is closer to 3% rather than the targeted 2%, but it is expected to decline this year [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic growth is projected to reach or exceed potential levels by 2026 [1] - There is no reason to further loosen monetary policy in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar for the first time in five years by 2025, primarily due to the decline in US dollar credit, although it remains weak against other currencies [2][4]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 30, 2025, the exchange rate is 1 USD to 155.97 JPY, showing an appreciation of approximately 1.90 JPY (1% increase) compared to the same time in 2024 [4]. - The yen's appreciation against the dollar is attributed to the depreciation of the dollar, while it continues to depreciate against other major currencies, indicating that a true shift to a yen appreciation phase is not yet realized [8][10]. - The yen reached its highest point of the year at 139.80 JPY per USD on April 22, 2025, following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US government [6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.5% in 2025, reaching the highest level in approximately 27 years, which narrows the long-term interest rate gap between Japan and the US [10]. - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen has not transitioned to an appreciation phase, as the government's active fiscal policies may undermine the effects of the Bank of Japan's rate increase [10][11]. - Predictions suggest that by December 2026, the yen may depreciate again to around 160 JPY per USD, depending on the trajectory of US monetary policy [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's inflation rate is expected to recover from -0.14% in 2025 to 0.4% in 2026, although there are concerns about the risk of deflation due to the increasing proportion of declining prices in the consumer price index basket [1] Group 1: Inflation Recovery Factors - The recovery in inflation for 2026 is primarily influenced by a reduction in supply-side pressures, with expectations that energy prices will decrease alongside international market prices, leading domestic diesel retail prices to potentially fall below 30 Thai Baht per liter [1] - Prices of vegetables and fruits are anticipated to rise slightly, which will mitigate the downward pressure on inflation [1] Group 2: Core Inflation Trends - The core inflation rate is expected to remain positive but with a slower growth rate, as prices for various goods, particularly finished food products, non-alcoholic beverages, and seasonings, are projected to increase, albeit at a reduced pace [1] - This slowdown in price increases aligns with the weak purchasing power of domestic consumers [1] Group 3: Historical Context - In 2025, Thailand's inflation rate recorded a -0.14%, marking the first annual negative growth in nearly five years [1] - By December 2025, the inflation rate had been in negative territory for nine consecutive months, although the decline narrowed from -0.49% in November to -0.28% in December [1]

Core Insights - Ghana's inflation rate is projected to be 5.4% by December 2025, a decrease from 6.3% in November 2025, indicating a continuous decline over 12 months [1] - The month-on-month inflation rate is reported at 0.9%, suggesting a relatively moderate increase in prices towards the end of the year [1] - The sustained low inflation is primarily driven by a slowdown in food price increases [1]

Core Insights - Tunisia's inflation rate is projected to decrease to 5.3% for the year 2025, down from 7% in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation rate for Tunisia in 2024 is reported to be 7% [1] - The anticipated inflation rate for 2025 shows a significant decline to 5.3% [1]

Group 1 - Pakistan's top three export destinations for the first five months of the fiscal year 2025-2026 are the United States, China, and the United Kingdom, with total exports to the US amounting to $2.639 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while exports to China decreased by 6.8% to $983 million, and exports to the UK decreased by 3.2% to $905 million [8] - In 2025, gold and stocks emerged as the best-performing asset classes in Pakistan, with gold achieving a return of 73% and the KSE-100 index rising by 48% from January 1 to December 24 [9] - Pakistan is preparing to issue panda bonds for the first time before the Chinese New Year, which is seen as a significant step in strengthening financial and economic ties between China and Pakistan [9] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025-2026 is reported at 3.71%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with industrial growth rising from 0.12% to 9.38% [9] Group 2 - The inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Pakistan for December 2025 is reported at 5.6%, down from 6.1% in November 2025 but higher than 4.1% in December 2024 [10] - Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves increased by $4.2 billion in 2025, reaching $15.9 billion by the end of December, although the growth in the second half of the year was only $1.4 billion [10] - For the first six months of the fiscal year 2025-2026, Pakistan's total exports amounted to $15.184 billion, a decrease of 8.70% compared to the previous fiscal year, while imports increased by 11.28% to $34.388 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $19.204 billion, an increase of 34.57% year-on-year [11]

Market Overview - Stock market indexes have experienced a slight decline following a strong year, with the Nasdaq up +21% year to date and other major indexes also showing double-digit gains [1] - The Chicago Business Barometer reported a +36.3% print, the lowest since May 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently averaging +2.5% GDP growth, slightly above the +2.4% seen throughout 2024, following a robust +4.3% in Q3 2025 [2] - The CPI Inflation Rate has decreased by 30 basis points to +2.7%, but analysts caution that this data may be revised upward due to potential tariff impacts on trade goods [3] Employment Situation - Weekly Jobless Claims show benign numbers, but new hires are down approximately -100K compared to last year, indicating a potential labor market issue [4] - The retirement boom is cooling, but the workforce is not adequately replenished, and recent graduates face high unemployment rates [4] Housing Market - Pending Home Sales for November increased by +3.3%, marking a positive shift after previous months of decline, while Case-Shiller Home Prices rose by +1.1% in October, reversing prior losses [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the last FOMC meeting reveal differing opinions on interest rate adjustments, with some advocating for a -50bps cut while others support maintaining the current rate [7] - The market anticipates a pause in rate changes at the next FOMC meeting in late January, with significant focus on upcoming inflation and employment reports [8]

Group 1 - The World Bank forecasts Malaysia's economic growth rate to be 3.9% in 2026 [1] - The estimated economic growth rate for Malaysia this year is 4.2%, but a slowdown is expected next year due to declining growth in most economic sectors, excluding tourism [1] - The World Bank predicts that Malaysia's inflation rate will reach 4.2% in 2026, and the fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 13% of GDP [1]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in Oman as of the end of November this year stands at 1.67% [1] - The most significant price increase is observed in goods and services, which have risen by 8.99% compared to the same period last year [1]