Macroeconomic Insights - China's economic growth is characterized by a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a more balanced and stable economic structure, with significant contributions from domestic consumption [2] - The resilience of exports has exceeded expectations despite external tariff pressures, indicating a robust adaptability of China's economic fundamentals [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the midstream manufacturing sector, leading to a revaluation of value driven by deeper industrial structure changes [2] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a range of approximately 30 basis points, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces [3] - The narrative in the bond market has shifted from linear macroeconomic projections to a focus on event impacts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors [3] - Chinese bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, offering stable returns and low correlation, positioning them as a potential "stability anchor" in global portfolios [4] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is transitioning from a "technology race" to a practical "value realization" phase, with rapid industry expansion and a shift in investment focus from infrastructure to application layers [5] - The structure of the AI industry is expected to resemble an inverted pyramid, with increasing market size driven by applications, models, and chips [5] - Companies with a growing share of AI revenue are likely to attract more capital market attention, leading to potential valuation increases [5] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is undergoing a significant value reassessment, with a clear divide in performance between traditional cyclical products and sectors like precious and non-ferrous metals [7] - Analysts predict that the structural differentiation in the commodity market will continue, driven by supply reshaping, policy adjustments, and enhanced financial attributes [7] - Non-ferrous metals are widely regarded as having the most significant upside potential in the upcoming market landscape [7]

2026年新年将至，在这个时间窗口，21世纪也即将走完四分之一的里程，岁月似乎永远是那么的疾速和 冷峻，让你无法片刻驻足在她的背影里。 回想刚刚步入21世纪的那些日子，人们有很多的兴奋和梦想，但很难具体设想到，四分之一世纪过去 后，这个世界会是什么模样。 回望这倏忽之间的25年，让我们无法忘怀的是哪些时刻和印记？改变了国际竞争格局的中国"入世"？全 球化的黄金岁月？引爆文明冲突的"9·11"事件？被互联网革命彻底重构的信息世界和人类交互方式？当 然，还有深深烙印在所有人记忆和伤痛中的新冠疫情，二战以来欧洲最大规模的战争冲突，以特朗普上 台为标志的逆全球化时钟敲响，以及已然降临的AI时代，连"殖民"火星的第一步也已清晰可见。 如果让我立即给出两个词来反映当下感受的话，我会毫不犹豫地说出："加速"和"颠覆"。在这四分之一 世纪的收尾时刻，以ChatGPT为代表的生成式人工智能技术和应用，再到生物医药、量子通信、可控核 聚变、脑机接口等等，大量的基础研究和应用研究在诸多领域大踏步前行，正在从量变步入到质变阶 段，还包括多领域的跨界和交叉研究，共同带来了人类科技成果的"涌现"时刻，让人感受到地球的运转 似乎都有了加速 ...

2025年即将过去，在这一年波澜壮阔的科学图景中，一个曾深藏于实验室、看似遥不可及的领域——量 子科技，凭借其积蓄已久的磅礴势能，涌向全球科技浪潮的顶端。 今年是联合国正式确定的"国际量子科学与技术年"。这一年，中国科学技术大学与国内多家科研机构研 制的"祖冲之三号"，突破了超导系统量子计算优越性的世界纪录；这一年，谷歌公司的"量子回声"实 验，在特定任务中速度达经典超算的13000倍，对全球量子计算研发产生深远影响。 量子世界也促使我们放弃"非黑即白"的传统思维，接受万物在微观尺度上的模糊。这种思维的革新，孕 育着极富生命力的技术突破。新型超导材料的探索设计，即源于对低温下电子量子行为的深刻理解。而 我们"墨子号"量子科学实验卫星，则将量子行为转化为对通信安全的保障。 正因如此，多国才会将量子研究提升至国家战略高度。美国出台《国家量子倡议法案》，并对量子研究 持续投入巨资；欧盟启动规模宏大的十年期"量子旗舰计划"；加拿大、日本、韩国、澳大利亚均不甘落 后推出本国量子技术蓝图。在我国"十五五"规划建议稿中，推动量子科技成为新的经济增长点亦列入其 中。 莫道量子远，已在指掌前。在日益紧密的全球格局中，秉持开放包 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on three core areas: quantum communication, quantum computing, and quantum precision measurement, indicating that quantum technology is transitioning from frontier exploration to industrialization, with significant prospects for investment by 2026 [1] Group 1: Quantum Technology Development - Quantum technology is becoming a global strategic high ground, with its industrialization process exceeding expectations. The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics will be awarded to scientists in the quantum field, further increasing attention on quantum technology [1][2] - The core advantages of quantum technology lie in utilizing quantum superposition and entanglement effects to break through the performance limits of classical information systems, thereby reconstructing computing, communication, and measurement systems [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The global market for quantum communication is projected to reach $951 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to $10.5 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of approximately 28.3%. The Chinese market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 52.3% from 2025 to 2030 [2][34][39] - Quantum computing is expected to reach a global market size of $5.04 billion in 2024, with projections of over $800 billion by 2035, driven by its potential in material design and drug development [2][49] - The global market for quantum precision measurement is estimated to be $1.674 billion in 2024, with expectations to reach $4.497 billion by 2035, showing a growth rate exceeding 30% in China [2] Group 3: Technological and Application Breakthroughs - International giants are leading the industry development, with companies like Microsoft, Google, and IBM making significant advancements in quantum hardware and software. For instance, Microsoft has launched a topological qubit processor, while Google has achieved breakthroughs in quantum error correction [3][8] - Domestic companies are solidifying the industrial foundation, with Guoyi Quantum focusing on quantum precision measurement, Benyuan Quantum launching a quantum control system, and Guodun Quantum achieving mass production of single-photon detectors [3][9] Group 4: Policy and Industry Support - The Chinese government has included quantum technology in its "New Infrastructure" initiative, providing multi-dimensional support from top-level design to technological breakthroughs and application implementation, accelerating industry development [1]

年底了，咱们不聊复杂的经济术语，一起来说说今年身边的小变化。回忆我这一年，赶过北京首店的首 发潮，刷到过哈尔滨冰雪大世界的热闹，收快递时，看到了前11月我国快递业务量超1800亿件的里程 碑，连身边的很多长辈，都坐上了银发旅游专列去看风景。 其实，这一年的经济温度就藏在这些日常里。正如中央经济工作会议在部署明年经济工作时明确指出 的，要"在质的有效提升上取得更大突破"，这为"十五五"开好局、起好步提供了重要指引。那些藏在柴 米油盐里的确定性，正是支撑中国经济向上向好的坚实底气。 这一年，新变化让生活更有盼头。具身智能机器人走进卖场，从生产车间到家庭服务，让"未来生活"不 再是科幻片段；量子通信、生物制造，形成更多具有带动力的新增长点，这些科技突破都在筑牢着经济 高质量发展的根基；还有"苏超"足球赛带火的城市游，成为年轻人新宠的国潮产品……日常消费里的新 鲜感，正是中国经济活力的最好证明。 记者：王晶 编导：杜文晗 拍摄：范博韬 这一年，产业链的韧性让日子更安稳。今年以来，我国新能源汽车保有量持续提升，前11个月新能源汽 车销量达1478万辆，同比增长31.2%，这背后是上千家零部件厂商的协同发力；快递小哥穿梭 ...

维科网12月23日信息，科大国盾量子技术股份有限公司12月20日发布公告，宣布将研发"国盾量子EDA软件"，正式进军量子芯片设计工具领域。 根据公告，公司计划投入870万元，与关联企业曲泉（武汉）科技有限公司合作开发该软件，目标是打造用于未来超导量子计算芯片设计的"准工业级EDA 软件"。 量子EDA，又一"猛虎"入局 全文字数：1466字，预计阅读时间：4分钟 题图：AI生成 国盾量子入局之机 不过，国盾量子并非量子EDA赛道上的唯一玩家。 今年5月，另一家国产量子企业——本源量子已发布支持超导和半导体双平台的Q-EDA软件"本源坤元"。而在更早之前的2023年4月，量旋科技也发布了量 子芯片EDA工具"天乙"。 国盾量子此次入局，与其业务从量子通信向量子计算硬件的战略拓展密切相关。 公开资料显示，国盾量子发源于中国科学技术大学，成立于2009年5月27日，是中国最早从事量子信息技术产业化的企业，早期以参与建设世界首条远距 离量子保密通信干线"京沪干线"而知名。近年来，其业务已开始逐渐铺开，全面覆盖量子通信、量子计算和量子精密测量三大领域。 2020年7月，公司在科创板上市，成为量子科技领域首家A股上市公司 ...

亨通光电 20251222 摘要 全球光纤需求紧张，受益于国内外市场共振，国内建设加速及海外骨干 网、城域网和接入网建设提速，国际市场涨幅显著，预计未来几年 AR 技术普及将持续推动需求增长。 国内运营商招标量虽持平，但新八纵八横项目带动超集总光纤需求，行 业整体向好。光纤供给侧，国际厂商如康宁、普瑞斯曼及国内企业均在 扩展特种光纤，影响传统 652D 光纤产能。 光纤价格上涨，国内涨幅约 10%，美国市场 652D 价格远高于国内。预 计未来供需关系变化将推动价格进一步上涨。疫情后国内中小产能出清， 头部企业如亨通关注特种光纤发展。 亨通光电常规光纤产能稳定，特种光纤投入大，如 G6,541 超低损耗光 纤、多芯空心激光等。新光纤中心预计明年一二季度释放产能，光纤产 能扩充周期约 6-12 个月。 亨通光电在多芯光纤领域领先，价格约为 G652D 的 10 倍，已获联通和 移动认证。公司今年以来满产，特种光纤中心投资及新增产能信息将在 明年 4 月公布。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）二季度以来，国内 AI 的发展对光通信行业产生了哪些影响？ 从今年（2025 年）二季度开始，国内 AI 的发展显著带动了全光 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the quantum technology industry [6] Core Insights - Quantum computing is expected to advance faster than market expectations, becoming a core component of future computing systems alongside classical and AI computing [1][12] - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for groundbreaking work in quantum tunneling and energy level quantization, indicating rapid iterations in quantum technology [2] - Major international companies are enhancing their engineering capabilities and commercializing quantum technologies, making significant strides in quantum hardware and software [3] - Domestic companies are accelerating their development around self-controllable technologies and practical applications in quantum measurement and computing [4] Summary by Sections 1. Quantum Technology Development - Quantum technology is transitioning from basic research to engineering and industrialization, with significant advancements in core device manufacturing and algorithm development [23] - The industry is expected to become a crucial support for future information technology transformations and enhance national technological competitiveness [23] 1.1 Quantum Communication - The global quantum communication market is projected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2025 to $10.5 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.3% [30] - In China, the quantum communication market is expected to reach $1 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 52.3% from 2025 to 2030 [34] 1.2 Quantum Computing - The global quantum computing market is anticipated to grow from $5.04 billion in 2024 to $807.75 billion by 2035, indicating a CAGR of 87.64% [44][45] - In China, the quantum computing market is projected to increase from $118.5 million in 2024 to $410 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 23.5% [51] 1.3 Quantum Precision Measurement - The global quantum precision measurement market is expected to expand from $1.674 billion in 2024 to $4.497 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.40% [59] - In China, the quantum measurement industry is projected to grow to $2.14 billion in 2024, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [62]

Core Argument - The article argues that the notion of "winning" against China is misguided, as China has proven to be a formidable competitor with significant advantages in various sectors, particularly in technology and manufacturing [1][4][6]. Group 1: China's Economic Strengths - China has demonstrated resilience against U.S. pressures, showcasing its ability to maintain and expand its competitive advantages in key industries such as electric vehicles, clean energy, and robotics [6][12]. - The trade dispute highlighted China's control over the rare earth mineral supply chain, which is critical for numerous U.S. industries, including electric vehicles and consumer electronics [9][11]. - China's solar power capacity is double that of the combined capacity of the U.S. and Europe, and it produces 70% of the world's electric vehicles [12][13]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - China is leading in quantum communication and making rapid advancements in quantum computing and sensing, while also surpassing other countries in AI-related patents [13]. - The ability of China to scale technology quickly and apply it across various economic sectors is a significant advantage, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy [13][14]. - Chinese companies like DJI dominate the commercial drone market, holding a 70% share, while the U.S. lags in military drone technology [12][14]. Group 3: Military Developments - Although the U.S. maintains the strongest military force, China is rapidly catching up, having produced more vessels in the past year than the U.S. has since World War II [14]. - China's nuclear arsenal has doubled since 2020, and it has enhanced its submarine capabilities, indicating a significant military buildup [14]. Group 4: Changing Perceptions in the U.S. - There is a noticeable shift in American perceptions of China, with fewer people viewing it as an enemy compared to previous years, possibly influenced by cultural exchanges and the relative stability of China compared to U.S. political turmoil [14].

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 泛 AI 分支低位方向：AI 医疗、端侧、智能驾驶、具身智能 ➢ AI 医疗 AI 大模型在病理检测、制药等医药领域具备深度应用潜力。AI+病理检测 有助于提升诊疗效率、减少漏诊误诊，核心痛点在于医疗高质量数据集的 建立与数据壁垒的打通。11 月国家卫健委发布《关于促进和规范"人工智 能+医疗卫生"应用发展的实施意见》，提出到 2027 年建立一批行业高质 量数据集和可信数据空间，形成一批优秀的专病专科垂直大模型和应用， 加强 AI 模型在智能诊疗、智能康复、传染病监测等领域的应用。近期阿里 系医疗模型蚂蚁阿福冲上 IOS 应用商店排行前三，体现出 C 端对于借助专 业模型实现"普惠医疗"与即时健康服务的核心诉求，后续医疗大模型端 伴随数据集深化与应用模式创新有望出现更多爆款。此外，AI 模型在制药 领域的渗透有望显著降低药物发现的成本与时间周期，加速靶点开发与验 证过程，同时通过模拟临床试验降低失败风险，亦是 AI 医疗中长期重要 产业趋势。 ➢ AI 端侧 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20251221 商业航天与核聚变之后， ...