Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Supply pressure is increasing as production by construction steel mills is active and weekly output is rising. Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics of the off - season. The steel price is under pressure, but the lack of an inventory inflection point means the real - world contradictions are small, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile with a bias towards strength" respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar shows an increase in supply pressure as steel mill production is active and a weakening in demand due to off - season characteristics. This "supply increase and demand weakness" situation leads to a seasonal weakening of the fundamentals, pressuring the steel price. However, the absence of an inventory inflection point limits real - world contradictions, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.03%. The production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35][36] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract is presented, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [8][9] - **Spot Price**: The market price of rebar is mentioned, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [10][12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data is from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [16] Important Market Information - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on implementing the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference and accelerating the construction of a science - and technology power. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. On June 25, the People's Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations with a one - year term [17] Supply - side Situation - The data of Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is involved, but specific data is not provided in the given content [18] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager index in the steel circulation industry of Lange Steel was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. Information on construction new starts, construction and completion floor area, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume is also mentioned [25][31] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, on the 27th, safety inspections in Guxian, Linfen, Shanxi Province became stricter. A local coal mine was shut down for rectification due to safety hazards, involving a production capacity of 900,000 tons, mainly producing low - sulfur primary coking coal, with a shutdown period of 10 - 15 days. Last week, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the factory inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 16.45%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 285,000 tons. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for two months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of pig iron [34] 后市展望 - Last week, the production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with expectations remaining, and steel prices will maintain a volatile trend. The iron ore market is in the consumption off - season and will likely show a volatile and weakening trend. The coking coal and coke market has weak demand expectations and will maintain a volatile downward trend. The power coal market has a short - term price increase due to supply tightening in some areas, but the long - term supply is still in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 2977 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3099 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. For rebar, the Middle East conflict has repeated disturbances, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. For hot - rolled coil, the profit of sheet metal is better than that of building materials, and the production and sales are resilient. Although exports have declined slightly, they remain at a high level in the short term. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant [1]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly. The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, with a total of 35.07 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.63 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 813,000 tons, a 31.22% decrease from the previous day. The forward - looking spot transaction volume was 1.1 million tons, a 266.67% increase from the previous period. The iron ore price lacks the momentum to rebound, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and weakening trend in the short term. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of "volatile and weakening" is recommended, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 220 - 240 yuan/ton. The loss of coking enterprises has expanded again, and the coke production has slightly decreased. For coking coal, some coal mines in Shanxi have not resumed production, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The downstream procurement of low - price coal has improved. The inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port is still at a high level, and the customs clearance continues to fluctuate at a low level. In the short term, the futures prices of coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Strategy**: A strategy of "volatile" is recommended for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are stable with a slight increase. Due to strict safety and environmental inspections, some coal mines have stopped production for maintenance, resulting in a tightening of coal supply in some areas. The rigid replenishment demand of chemical and coking users has increased, and prices have slightly increased. At ports, the inventory reduction effect is obvious, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has moved up. The price of imported coal has stopped falling. Currently, downstream users are mainly inquiring, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. In the short term, the price will rise slightly, and in the long term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Construction steel mills have resumed production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased, but the increase is limited and still at a relatively low level. The supply side is operating stably [3]. - Rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. The weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions are relatively sluggish. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices [3]. - Currently, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weak. Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals remain weakly stable, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively good news is that inventory is at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies for investment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations. As of June 20, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3070 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [1][10]. - Steel profits have increased slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by +6 CNY/ton, +20 CNY/ton, and -26 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Steel production has risen, with a total output of 8.69 million tons for major steel products, a week-on-week increase of 96,600 tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, various steel prices show mixed trends, with rebar prices stable at 3070 CNY/ton, hot-rolled steel increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 30 CNY/ton to 3510 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products reached 8.69 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 46,100 tons to 2.12 million tons. Total social inventory decreased by 144,300 tons to 9.12 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel profitability, with long-process steel margins showing minor increases while short-process margins have decreased [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].

螺纹周报 研究报告 中期震荡为主，短线或有走弱风险 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 26 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 日星期一 | 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.74%。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 基本面：据世界钢铁协会，4 月全球粗钢产量同比下降 0.3%，至 1.557 亿吨；其中，中国钢铁 ...

期货研究报告|钢材周报 2025-04-27 市场情绪起伏，钢价震荡运行 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 |  yucaiyun@htfc.com | | --- | | 从业资格号：F03096767 | | 投资咨询号：Z0020310 | 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 本周市场情绪起伏较大，钢价震荡运行。整体来看钢材价格目前处于底部区间，基本面 无明显矛盾，铁水高产量压制着钢价上涨，步入消费旺季的现货市场成交氛围较好，底 部价格得到支撑。当前建材库存处于历史低位，且库存持续去库，国内制造业发展较为 乐观，卷板供需两旺。出口数据表现仍有韧性，但是在关税影响下市场预期后续会有下 降，供给端变化影响市场价格。后续持续关注钢厂产量、现货成交情况、 ...