Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. However, due to cost increase and production restriction disturbances, there is resistance to downward movement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tangshan's production restriction disturbances have boosted the steel market sentiment, and steel prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Rebar production has slightly decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level this year, with good profit per ton and high production enthusiasm, so supply pressure still exists [3]. - Rebar demand is weakly declining, high - frequency indicators are decreasing month - on - month, downstream industries have not improved, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Weak demand easily puts pressure on steel prices [3]. - In the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices are under pressure. The relative positives are cost increase and production restriction disturbances, so there is resistance to downward movement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner [2] - Although the market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the downside space, and steel prices will continue to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner. The calculation of price fluctuations is based on different rules for products with or without night trading sessions [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strength of coking coal and coke boosts the black series, and steel futures prices oscillate higher. But the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Although the weekly output has decreased month - on - month and supply has shrunk at a low level, the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong [3] - The demand for rebar is seasonally weakening, high - frequency indicators have fallen again, and they have been at the low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [3] - The market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The positive factor is that the low - inventory pattern means that industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downside space is limited. Steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a stable supply and slight adjustments in prices, with calls for self-discipline among companies to avoid excessive competition and maintain price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 85,034 tons of rebar warehouse receipts, an increase of 594 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for self-discipline in the industry, urging companies to adhere to the "three determinations and three non-requests" principle to control production and stabilize prices [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - On July 29, Shougang Changzhi adjusted its rebar prices, reducing the HRB400E rebar price by 30 yuan, with the ex-factory base price for Φ20mm set at 3,220 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Futures noted that despite being in the off-season, steel mills are maintaining decent profits and high production levels, with a slight weekly increase in rebar output and stable overall steel supply [2]. - Ningzheng Futures reported that adverse weather conditions are impacting construction and transportation, leading to generally weak downstream demand, while high coal prices are providing some support for steel prices [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent currently. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 0.03% [5] - **Spot Price**: The analysis involves the market price of rebar, but no specific price data is presented [11] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content is provided Important Market Information - On July 4th, the research group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [16] Supply - side Situation - In late June, according to CISA data, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 6.4% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [6][31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, the steel mill inventory decreased by 5.13 tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 1.34 tons week - on - week, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased by 4.17 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory decreased by 0.1 tons week - on - week [32] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [23] Fundamental Analysis - In late June 2025, the daily output of national crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous ten - day period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year, the same period last month, the same period last year, and the same period the year before last [31] - According to Mysteel data, this week, the weekly output of rebar increased, the steel mill inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, the weekly output of the five major steel products increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly [32] 后市展望 - Currently, the contradiction in the steel fundamentals is not prominent. With the continuous three - week rebound in rebar production and increasing production - restriction disturbances, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [6][33] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish stance on dips and treat the market with a bias towards long positions in a volatile market [7][34]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the seasonal weakness of the fundamentals and the continuation of the volatile steel prices [2]. - The policy's positive expectations drive the steel prices to rise, but the fundamentals of rebar continue to be seasonally weak with limited upward momentum. The low - inventory pattern remains unchanged. With the game between long and short factors, the steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Over the weekend, the spot prices of steel products were weakly stable, and the trading volume was weak. The sentiment in the real - market was relatively cautious [3]. Supply - Due to the steel mills' product conversion, the output of rebar has been continuously increasing, and the supply pressure has increased [3]. Demand - The demand for rebar is stable. The high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of the speculative demand, but they are still at the low level of the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. Inventory - The low - inventory pattern of rebar remains unchanged [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the 2510 contract of rebar rose by 1.15%. The manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs in June all increased compared to the previous month. The central bank aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, and anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported stainless steel products. From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [5][31][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - This section includes analyses of futures prices, spot prices, and basis spreads, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [7][9][12] Important Market Information - In June, the manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank's second - quarter meeting in 2025 focused on revitalizing existing commercial housing and land to stabilize the real estate market. On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations. From January to May, transportation fixed - asset investment was 1.2 trillion yuan. Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [14] Supply - side Situation - This section mentions the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [15] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Fundamental Analysis - In Linfen, Shanxi, a coal mine with a production capacity of 900,000 tons was shut down for 10 - 15 days due to safety hazards. Last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, up 0.04% from the previous week and up 1.70% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week and up 16.45% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4229 million tons, up 110,000 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 million tons year - on - year. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of molten iron [30] 后市展望 - From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly [31] Operation Strategy - The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see [32]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Supply pressure is increasing as production by construction steel mills is active and weekly output is rising. Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics of the off - season. The steel price is under pressure, but the lack of an inventory inflection point means the real - world contradictions are small, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile with a bias towards strength" respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar shows an increase in supply pressure as steel mill production is active and a weakening in demand due to off - season characteristics. This "supply increase and demand weakness" situation leads to a seasonal weakening of the fundamentals, pressuring the steel price. However, the absence of an inventory inflection point limits real - world contradictions, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.03%. The production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35][36] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract is presented, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [8][9] - **Spot Price**: The market price of rebar is mentioned, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [10][12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data is from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [16] Important Market Information - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on implementing the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference and accelerating the construction of a science - and technology power. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. On June 25, the People's Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations with a one - year term [17] Supply - side Situation - The data of Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is involved, but specific data is not provided in the given content [18] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager index in the steel circulation industry of Lange Steel was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. Information on construction new starts, construction and completion floor area, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume is also mentioned [25][31] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, on the 27th, safety inspections in Guxian, Linfen, Shanxi Province became stricter. A local coal mine was shut down for rectification due to safety hazards, involving a production capacity of 900,000 tons, mainly producing low - sulfur primary coking coal, with a shutdown period of 10 - 15 days. Last week, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the factory inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 16.45%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 285,000 tons. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for two months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of pig iron [34] 后市展望 - Last week, the production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].