Core Insights - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country has decreased by 30,900 tons week-on-week, reaching 9.3332 million tons, a decline of 0.33% [1] Inventory Breakdown - The total inventory of construction steel is 4.8292 million tons, which is a decrease of 43,300 tons week-on-week (-0.89%), covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 2.4768 million tons, down by 11,800 tons week-on-week (-0.47%), including 15 cities and 47 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of medium and heavy plates has increased by 20,000 tons week-on-week (+2.70%), totaling 762,000 tons, across 9 cities and 14 warehouses [1] - The total inventory of cold-rolled and coated products has risen by 4,200 tons week-on-week (+0.33%), amounting to 1.2652 million tons, covering 5 cities and 14 warehouses [1]

新华财经北京11月5日电中钢协发布2025年10月下旬重点企业钢材库存旬报。2025年10月下旬，重点统 计钢铁企业钢材库存量1463万吨，环比上一旬减少195万吨，下降11.8%；比年初增加226万吨，增长 18.3%；比上月同旬减少4万吨，下降0.3%；比去年同旬增加99万吨，增长7.3%，比前年同旬增加86万 吨，增长6.3%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Core Insights - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country reached 9.3641 million tons as of November 3, showing a decrease of 134,600 tons (-1.42%) compared to the previous week [1][2] Inventory Summary - **Construction Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 4.8725 million tons, down by 83,900 tons (-1.69%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Hot Rolled Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 2.4886 million tons, decreasing by 42,600 tons (-1.68%) compared to the previous week [1][2] - **Medium and Heavy Plate Inventory**: The total inventory stood at 742,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 400 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Cold Rolled Coated Inventory**: The total inventory was 1.2610 million tons, down by 7,700 tons (-0.61%) from the previous week [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates a decrease in the total inventory of steel materials across 38 cities in China, reflecting a downward trend in stock levels as of October 27, 2023 [1]. Inventory Data - The total steel inventory across 135 warehouses in 38 cities is 9.4987 million tons, which is a decrease of 128,700 tons compared to the previous week, representing a decline of 1.34% [1]. - The inventory of construction steel is 4.9564 million tons, down by 73,800 tons week-on-week, a reduction of 1.47% [1]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory stands at 2.5312 million tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory is 742,400 tons, down by 11,700 tons, which is a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory totals 1.2687 million tons, with a reduction of 16,300 tons, marking a decline of 1.27% [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]