Wind数据显示，主流国产65%黑钨精矿最新价格已经站上41万元/吨，为41.66万元/吨，较年初上涨超过 190%。 中金公司认为，1）短期看，钨价有望继续偏强运行，并持续创下新高。供给侧，国内因品位下降、规 范化要求趋严等影响，产量收缩压力加大。海外方面，哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿逐步投产，但这一增量主 要被中国进口缓解国内供给压力，难以对海外供给形成明显冲击。同时，海外其他主要增量项目的投产 进度存在不确定性，叠加地缘冲突持续不断和海外通胀压力抬升，全球钨供给增量需要更高的激励价 格。2）长期看，钨价中枢由供需关系主导，预计全球钨供需关系仍将维持紧缺，进而驱动钨价中枢持 续上行。按钨金属量算，预计2023—2028年全球原钨生产量有望从7.95万吨增至8.99万吨；全球原钨需 求从9.62万吨增至11万吨。 华源证券认为，供给收缩叠加长单价格上调，钨价创历史新高。供给端，钨精矿开采指标缩减，矿山普 遍放缓生产节奏，行业流通继续收紧为主。需求端，国内需求基本保持稳定，刚需采购为主，PCB刀具 需求景气。近期，国内钨主流企业上调12月上半月长单价格，提振市场看涨情绪。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

钨价新高解读 20251217 摘要 2024 年 1-10 月原生钨原料供应同比下降 3.34%，总产量 11 万标吨， 第一批开采指标减少 6.45%至 5.8 万吨，再生资源供应小幅增长，进口 钨精矿大幅增长 59.33%至 15,647 标吨，总体原料供应与去年持平， 但消费需求每年增长约 1.5%，导致供需紧张。 钨市场价格上涨主要由供需紧张、出口管制文件提升中国战略地位、开 采指标下调预期、国际局势紧张、矿山惜售以及社会资本炒作等多重因 素驱动，利好中钨高新、厦门钨业、洛阳钼业等头部企业。 中国在全球钨供应链中占据绝对优势地位，出口管控政策已导致国外钨 价大幅上涨，头部企业产量和市场份额巩固了这一地位，国际局势不稳 定背景下，中国作为主要生产国的重要性愈加凸显。 展望 2026 年，国际局势不确定性及军费预算增加或将持续推升钨需求， 中国可能维持或加强出口及生产控制，供需关系预计仍将紧张，钨价或 保持高位，中国将继续发挥关键作用。 当前钨精矿市场价格为 42-43 万元/吨，生产成本约 13 万元/吨，利润 接近 30 万元/吨，头部企业如东吴高新和厦门钨业预计利润可观，并有 动力捍卫当前价格水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is experiencing a significant price increase, with various tungsten products reaching historical highs due to rising demand and tightening supply conditions [1][4][5]. Price Trends - As of December 16, tungsten concentrate prices have surpassed 400,000 yuan per ton, with APT prices exceeding 600,000 yuan per ton, and tungsten powder prices nearing 1,000 yuan per kilogram [1][2]. - The price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) has risen to 415,000 yuan per ton, while white tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 414,000 yuan per ton [2]. - Year-to-date increases include a 190.2% rise in black tungsten concentrate prices, a 189.1% increase in APT prices, and a 202.3% rise in tungsten powder prices [2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for tungsten has surged due to growth in industries such as photovoltaics and automotive manufacturing, leading to a significant increase in consumption [4]. - Supply constraints have been exacerbated by reduced production from upstream mines and maintenance activities at APT manufacturers, contributing to a tight market [6]. Market Sentiment - Major domestic tungsten companies have raised their long-term contract prices for December, which has bolstered bullish market sentiment [5]. - Analysts predict that the tungsten industry will continue to experience upward price trends due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [5][6]. Stock Market Impact - The stock prices of tungsten-related companies, including Zhangyuan Tungsten, China Tungsten High-Tech, and Xiamen Tungsten, have shown significant upward trends recently [5]. - The increase in tungsten product prices has positively impacted the financial performance of several related listed companies [5]. Strategic Considerations - Some raw material suppliers have completed their annual business targets and are slowing down their shipment pace, while leading tool manufacturers have stockpiled sufficient raw materials, enhancing their cost advantages [6]. - Smaller tool manufacturers are facing financial pressures for raw material replenishment, leading to potential production cuts and a concentration of market demand towards leading brands [6].

来源：新浪港股 佳鑫国际资源（03858）盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，股价上涨7.62%，现报41.54港元，成交额3345.81万港 元。 据华源证券，近两周，黑钨精矿价格上涨9.76%至37.10万元/吨，仲钨酸铵价格上涨12.12%至55.50万元/ 吨。供给端，钨精矿开采指标缩减，矿山普遍放缓生产节奏，行业流通继续收紧为主。需求端，国内需 求基本保持稳定，刚需采购为主，PCB刀具需求景气。近期，国内钨主流企业上调12月上半月长单价 格，提振市场看涨情绪。中邮证券认为，短期看钨价供需矛盾难解，12月预计钨全产业链将延续上涨行 情。 中金此前指，据佳鑫国际资源公告，公司开发运营的哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿已于2025年4月正式进入商 业化生产，公司计划于2H25、2026、2027年分别生产3638、10900、13665吨钨精矿（65%WO3口 径），该行测算哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿占到2025-2027年全球原钨供给的比重有望达4%、7%、8%。 ...

消息面上，据华源证券，近两周，黑钨精矿价格上涨9.76%至37.10万元/吨，仲钨酸铵价格上涨12.12% 至55.50万元/吨。供给端，钨精矿开采指标缩减，矿山普遍放缓生产节奏，行业流通继续收紧为主。需 求端，国内需求基本保持稳定，刚需采购为主，PCB刀具需求景气。近期，国内钨主流企业上调12月上 半月长单价格，提振市场看涨情绪。中邮证券认为，短期看钨价供需矛盾难解，12月预计钨全产业链将 延续上涨行情。 中金此前指，据佳鑫国际资源公告，公司开发运营的哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿已于2025年4月正式进入商 业化生产，公司计划于2H25、2026、2027年分别生产3638、10900、13665吨钨精矿（65%WO3口 径），该行测算哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿占到2025-2027年全球原钨供给的比重有望达4%、7%、8%。 智通财经APP获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.29%，报41.8港元，成交额2870.73万 港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国投证券发布研报称，今年以来钨价快速上涨，长期看供给收紧支撑钨价高位运 行。2025Q3刀具龙头经营拐点已现，行业公司业绩端收入及利润均上行。考虑到钨价上涨带来的刀具 顺价存在时滞性，龙头企业低价库存优势将在四季度及后续陆续体现，该行看好国产刀具业绩弹性。 国投证券主要观点如下： 今年以来钨价快速上涨，长期看供给收紧支撑钨价高位运行 钨铁是刀具的关键原材料，今年以来钨制品市场报价持续上涨，根据中钨在线，截至2025年12月10日， 黑钨精矿、APT、碳化钨粉价格相较年初分别上涨157%、158%、180%。全球80%的钨矿产量集中在中 国，我国长期将钨金属视为战略资源，近年持续加大钨矿开采资源管控，在供给持续紧缩，以及光伏、 军工、PCB钻针等新兴需求较为强劲的影响下，未来几年钨价有望维持高位运行态势。 国产刀具持续提价，年末外资调价进一步提高国产价格空间 国内刀具企业价格机制相对灵活，刀具售价与原材料价格关联度较高，今年5月、9月和11月行业先后出 现涨价潮。近期山高、肯纳、京瓷、住友等欧美日韩品牌陆续发布涨价函，将在2025年12月-2026年2月 期间上调价格体系。考虑到外资刀具客户 ...

Industry Overview - The price of tungsten series products in China has increased, with tungsten powder, tungsten materials, and sodium tungstate rising by 2.35%, 2.2%, and 2% respectively as of December 11 [1] - The supply of tungsten is expected to tighten due to China's implementation of total mining control, while global reserves are gradually increasing [1] - Demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow due to diverse downstream applications, potentially supporting high tungsten prices in the future [1] - Global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, driven by declining ore grades and stricter regulations in China, as well as slow supply increases outside Kazakhstan [1] Company Insights - Xiamen Tungsten focuses on three core businesses: tungsten-molybdenum, rare earths, and new energy materials, actively expanding its deep processing capabilities in these areas [2] - China Tungsten High-Tech primarily engages in the research, development, production, sales, and trade of hard alloys and various non-ferrous metals, including tungsten, molybdenum, tantalum, and niobium [2]

钨的新时代：四问钨价，牛市未央 20251209 摘要 中国钨精矿价格持续上涨，已突破 35 万元/吨，较年初上涨近 1.5 倍， 为历史高位的两倍。供需长期趋紧、国内供应压力及国内外需求增长是 主要驱动因素，对股票交易策略产生重要影响。 钨产业链中，APT 和钨粉价格对钨精矿价格传导顺畅，加工费显著上升。 一体化钨企如厦门钨业毛利率和净利润持续向好，刀具企业如欧科亿产 品价格亦有提升空间，财务数据表现积极。 钨产业链库存总体处于历史低位，APT 和碳化钨生产商库存显著下降。 一体化钨企采购力度持稳，刀具企业采购力度增强，预示未来 1-2 个季 度下游企业补库需求或将提升，影响企业运营。 中国钨出口政策（如出口管制）对供应产生影响，虽出口总量压制有限， 但出口结构向下游高附加值产品转移，强化了中国在全球市场的影响力， 支撑钨价牛市通道。 全球钨供给增速受限，中国面临矿石品位下降和环保趋严等问题，供应 持续紧张。中国加大进口以缓解压力，海外增量主要来自萨克斯坦与韩 国，但整体供需仍趋紧，影响未来市场。 Q&A 钨价在 2025 年持续上涨的原因是什么？ 2025 年钨价持续上涨，主要分为两波行情。第一波从 3 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of high-quality technological supply to lead the construction of a modern industrial system, with plans to implement major national technological tasks for decisive breakthroughs in key areas [2] - Alibaba plans to "actively" invest in enhancing artificial intelligence capabilities, potentially exceeding its previously committed investment of 380 billion RMB over three years, indicating a strong demand for AI resources [3] - The National Space Administration of China has issued an action plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial space, establishing a national commercial space development fund to encourage long-term and strategic investments [4] Group 2 - The significant increase in black tungsten concentrate prices, which have risen by 132% this year, is expected to be transmitted downstream, supported by strong demand in emerging sectors such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and military applications [7] - Alibaba's financial report for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 shows revenue of 247.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with adjusted earnings per ADS at 4.36 RMB, below market expectations [9] - The stock of *ST Suwu has been suspended due to major violations leading to forced delisting, while *ST Dongtong faces potential termination of listing due to fraudulent disclosures in annual reports [10] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have collectively risen for three consecutive trading days, with the Dow Jones up by 1.43%, indicating a positive market sentiment [14] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4% for the first time since late October, reflecting increased market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts [19]

Core Viewpoint - Jaxin International Resources (03858) has seen its stock price increase by over 8%, currently trading at 33.16 HKD, with a trading volume of 24.58 million HKD, driven by rising tungsten prices and positive market sentiment [1] Company Summary - Jaxin International Resources' core asset is the Bakuta tungsten mine, which has already commenced production and is expected to increase output in the future, benefiting from the rising tungsten prices [1] - The company is anticipated to experience rapid profit growth due to the upward trend in tungsten prices [1] Industry Summary - Tungsten prices are experiencing high volatility, with 65% black tungsten concentrate priced at 334,000 RMB per standard ton, up 133.6% from the beginning of the year, and 65% white tungsten concentrate priced at 333,000 RMB per standard ton, up 134.5% [1] - The supply side is tightening due to increased global reserves and China's implementation of total mining control, while the demand side is expected to grow due to diverse downstream applications, potentially supporting high tungsten prices [1]