Core Viewpoint - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) has surged over 9%, reaching a new historical high of 20.44 HKD, driven by changes in cobalt export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by 9.23%, trading at 20.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 58.74 million HKD [2] - The company benefits from rising cobalt prices due to supply constraints, as its nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia and is not affected by DRC's export restrictions [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The DRC government updated its cobalt export policy, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas for 2026-2027 to 44% of annual production [2] - According to CITIC Securities, the DRC's export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant global cobalt supply shortage, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Minsheng Securities believes that the DRC government is determined to support cobalt prices, indicating a likely shift towards a quota system and a clear upward trend in cobalt price levels [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Liqin Resources (02245) has increased by over 9%, reaching a new historical high of 20.44 HKD during trading [1] - As of the latest update, the stock is trading at 20.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 58.74 million HKD [1] Group 2 - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the cobalt export ban to October 15, 2025 [1] - From 2026 to 2027, the cobalt export quota will be limited to 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quota policy will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with supply shortages of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities believes that the Congolese government's firm stance on supporting cobalt prices indicates a high likelihood of implementing a quota system, leading to a contraction in supply and an upward shift in cobalt prices [1] - The company's wet-process nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by the Congolese export restrictions, allowing it to fully benefit from the rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to global cobalt supply being significantly below normal levels from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to drive cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 will be followed by quotas, with the 2026-2027 quota set at 40% of normal production [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale nickel production capacity in Indonesia with cost advantages, positioning the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The Congolese government updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a strong potential increase in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that if Luoyang Molybdenum receives proportional quotas, potential sales could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia, which positions the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

中信证券表示，钴出口配额制显示出刚果（金）政府控制全球钴价的决心，预计政府会通过灵活地调节 钴供应量来长期稳定钴价，这有利于全球钴产业的健康发展。预计刚果（金）出口配额政策将导致2025 年—2027年全球钴供应量远低于正常水平，供应短缺量分别为12.2万吨、8.8万吨、9.7万吨，钴价有望 强势上涨。预计布局印尼钴冶炼的公司以及在刚果（金）拥有矿山的公司将充分受益于钴价上涨。 据报道，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管局（ARECOMS）9月20日发布决定，延长刚果（金）钴出口禁 令至10月15日，10月16日起该国钴出口将实行配额制，2026年—2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。 ...

中信证券发布研究报告称，刚果(金)政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期至 10月15日，2026-2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。钴出口配额制显示出刚果(金)政府控制全球钴价 的决心，中信证券预计政府会通过灵活地调节钴供应量来长期稳定钴价，这有利于全球钴产业的健康发 展。 中信证券预计刚果(金)出口配额政策将导致2025-2027年全球钴供应量远低于正常水平，供应短缺量分别 为12.2/8.8/9.7万吨，钴价有望强势上涨。中信证券预计布局印尼钴冶炼的公司以及在刚果(金)拥有矿山 的公司将充分受益于钴价上涨。 中信证券主要观点如下： 事件： 1)据ARECOMS，2025年10月16日-12月31日的钴出口配额为18125金吨，10-12月出口量分别为 3625/7250/7250吨。 2)2026年出口配额为9.66万金吨(2024年产量的44%)，其中包括8.7万吨的基准配额和9600吨的战略配 额。基准配额为每月7250吨，战略配额归ARECOMS管理，用于战略项目的储备。每个钴冶炼公司可分 到的出口配额是按照历史出口量的比例来确定(EGC和卢本巴希矿业公司除外)， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cobalt prices have shown significant fluctuations due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 58% increase from February 24 to June 20, followed by a 6% increase from June 20 to September 18 [1] - The DRC's export ban has led to high inventory levels in the cobalt industry outside the DRC, and weak downstream demand during the off-peak season has contributed to the limited price increase after the ban was extended [1][2] - China's imports of cobalt raw materials from the DRC have significantly decreased since June, with imports dropping by 61%, 30%, and 64% from June to August, leading to only 9% of the average import level in August [2] Group 2 - The DRC's measures to control cobalt exports aim to boost prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3] - The DRC is developing a quota system to manage supply, which is expected to systematically elevate the price center of cobalt and secure long-term strategic benefits for its resources [3] - Domestic demand for cobalt is expected to improve, potentially leading to continued inventory reduction and upward pressure on cobalt prices [2]

刚果（金）一纸公告，全球钴市场格局震动。 9月21日晚，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局（ARECOMS）宣布将原定9月21日到期的出口禁令继续延期 到10月15日，并将于10月16日解除钴出口禁令，实施年度出口配额。 从出口禁令到配额制度 今年2月，钴价暴跌之际，刚果（金）首次宣布为期四个月的钴出口禁令，并在6月延长禁令三个月。 此次最新公告宣布，将原定9月21日到期的禁令将继续延长至10月15日，而自10月16日起，钴出口将进入配额 管理阶段。 根据新规，矿商在今年剩余时间内的出口配额将略高于1.8万吨，2026年和2027年每年的配额上限设定为9.66 万吨。 据Darton Commodities数据显示，刚果（金）2024年钴产量约22万吨，占全球总产量的约四分之三。 ARECOMS主席Patrick Luabeya在接受媒体采访时直言，当前局势"已不再需要全面暂停出口"。 他指出，新的配额制度将在未来几个月内"为未来数年的市场再平衡完成最后的调整"。该政策的明确目标是 将全球钴库存削减至"约相当于一个月需求量"的水平。 钴价半年飙涨超60% 自2月禁令实施以来，钴的价格一路飙升。 数据显示，202 ...

（原标题：全球最大钴矿供应国，官宣大动作！） 据新华财经9月22日消息，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局21日宣布，该国自10月15日起结束自今 年2月以来实施的钴出口禁令，并于10月16日改为实行出口配额制度，直至另行通知。 该机构在声明中说，在今年余下时间内，在刚果（金）的矿企将被允许出口逾1.8万吨钴，2026年和 2027年每年最高出口量为9.66万吨。配额将根据企业历史出口量比例分配，并"将通知各公司"。 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局主席帕特里克·卢阿贝亚在接受彭博社采访时表示，目前局势"已无 需全面暂停出口"，新的配额制度将在未来几个月内"完成未来数年市场再平衡所需的最后调整"。他强 调，该政策目标是将全球库存压缩至"相当于一个月钴需求量"的水平。 有分析指出，2025年钴价格显著上涨，主要源于全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）自2月起实施钴产品临时 出口禁令并多次延期，导致全球钴供应明显收紧。与此同时，新能源汽车、消费电子等行业对钴的需求 持续上升，进一步推动钴价走高。 国信证券认为，从全年维度看，对钴价持乐观态度。从长期看，刚果（金）可能实施钴出口配额来提升 对于钴的定价权，钴价中枢有望抬升。 据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Likin Resources (02245.HK) has successfully transformed from a nickel trading company to a leading nickel smelting enterprise, with its stock price reaching a historical high and a significant increase in market capitalization [1][3] - Over the past 13 months, the company's stock price has surged from 4.13 HKD to approximately 17 HKD, representing a remarkable increase of 290% [1][3] - The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of 2022 and operates across the entire nickel industry chain, leading in both trading and production of nickel products [3] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, the company's revenue reached 18.147 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%, while profit was 2.249 billion HKD, up 131.7% year-on-year [3] - Minsheng Securities has given a "recommended" rating, noting that nickel prices are at a cyclical low with clear cost support, and the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to implement quota systems, leading to supply contraction [3] - The company's wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is not affected by export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, allowing it to fully benefit from rising cobalt prices [3]