证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配 ...

节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Nickel supply from Indonesia is expected to contract, providing support for nickel ore prices. As of January 16, the LME nickel spot price was $17,625 per ton, down 0.28% from January 9, while the total LME nickel inventory increased by 0.33% to 285,732 tons. The Shanghai nickel price rose by 5.01% to 144,000 yuan per ton during the same period [1] - The cobalt raw material supply in China is expected to remain structurally tight for a long time, with cobalt prices likely to continue rising. As of January 16, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 455,000 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from January 9 [2][5] - Antimony prices have stopped falling and are expected to be supported by improved demand and tight supply. As of January 15, the average price of domestic antimony concentrate was 142,500 yuan per ton, up 1.42% from January 8 [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise significantly, with the average market price reaching 157,900 yuan per ton as of January 16, up 12.72% from January 9. The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong [8][19] - The price of tungsten is expected to rise further due to tight supply conditions. As of January 16, the price of white tungsten concentrate (65%) was 505,500 yuan per ton, up 5.20% from January 9 [13][21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are expected to be supported by supply constraints from Indonesia, with a projected mining quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, lower than market expectations. The market is also concerned about additional taxes on by-products like cobalt and iron [1][16] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to export quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a projected production of 29,000 tons globally in 2024, a 21.8% increase year-on-year [5][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by tight supply and improved demand, with expectations of further price increases due to ongoing supply constraints, especially in northern China [6][18] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by strong demand and supply uncertainties. The average price reached 157,900 yuan per ton, with expectations for continued strong performance in the near term [8][19] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is facing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to rise further. The domestic mining quota for tungsten is projected to be lower than previous years, contributing to supply constraints [13][21] Uranium Industry - The uranium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors and structural shortages in supply. The global uranium price was $63.51 per pound as of December [14][15]

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations with LME copper up by 0.36%, SHFE copper down by 0.96%, and COMEX copper up by 2.33% [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate for November was 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while the CPI was below expectations, leading to increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, which supports copper prices [1] - A long-term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $0/ton and $0/lb for 2026, indicating a tight supply situation in the copper mining sector [1] - Copper inventories increased, with LME copper at 160,000 tons, COMEX copper at 462,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 96,000 tons, showing changes of -3.32%, +2.57%, and +7.18% respectively [1] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods was 63.06%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points [1] - Long-term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, with potential price increases as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum inventories saw a slight increase, while aluminum prices remained high, with SHFE aluminum down by 0.54% to 22,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of alumina fell by 1.08% to 2,750 yuan/ton, with metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity at 88.085 million tons/year and a weekly operating rate of 79.85% [2] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a shortage next year due to stable demand growth and limited supply, as domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling [2] Group 3: Lithium - Lithium prices are entering an upward cycle, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 3.33% to 97,700 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate up by 8.03% to $1,318/ton [3] - Lithium carbonate production increased to 22,000 tons, with SMM weekly inventory down by 0.9%, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [3] - The demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with phosphate iron lithium production in November at 413,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44% [3] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand growth exceeds expectations and supply-demand dynamics shift [3] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt up by 0.51% to $24.45/lb and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.93% to 422,000 yuan/ton [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing a quota system instead, but the export process for many companies remains slow [4] - Structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, with domestic supplies likely arriving only after March next year due to shipping delays and holiday impacts [4]

Group 1 - The rare metals sector experienced a downward fluctuation, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index dropping by 1.57% as of 10:44 AM on December 2, 2025 [1] - In the new energy vehicle materials sector, the price of electric carbon reached 92,100 yuan per ton, marking a 4.3% increase and the highest level in nearly 16 months. Meanwhile, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was reported at 566.92 yuan per kilogram, up 3.4%, also at a 19-month high [1] - Supply constraints and recovering demand are driving the prices of key materials like lithium and rare earths, leading to a significant rebound in industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - Cobalt raw material exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo are progressing slower than expected, maintaining a structural tightness in supply. Despite the implementation of a cobalt export quota system in October, the licensing process remains incomplete, causing delays in the shipment of intermediate products [1] - It is anticipated that domestic raw materials will not arrive until the first quarter of 2026, and the tight supply of cobalt raw materials is expected to support prices, coupled with active downstream procurement [1] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 59.05% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [1] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the China Rare Metals Theme Index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in the rare metals sector [2] - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector through the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) [3]

Core Insights - The rare metals industry is experiencing a price increase across multiple segments, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in the new energy vehicle materials sector [1][2] - Lithium and rare earth materials are showing strong price performance, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 93,800 yuan/ton, up 1.6% month-on-month, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices at 167,500 yuan/ton, up 6.7% month-on-month [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium are shifting from a loose to a tighter market, with significant price increases observed in lithium salts and other materials [2] Industry Summary - Recent price increases in lithium and rare earth materials are attributed to supply-side constraints, including mining rights issues and environmental regulations affecting production [1][2] - The lithium battery supply chain is characterized by strong downstream demand, leading to a robust price increase across various materials [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition and improve capacity management, which may help restore supply-demand balance and enhance profitability in the industry [2] Market Performance - The rare metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a 1.71% rise in the index and a notable inflow of capital, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The top-weighted stocks in the rare metals sector have shown substantial gains, with Tianhua New Energy up 8.26% and Luoyang Molybdenum up 5.05% [3] - The materials ETF has also performed well, with a near 3% increase and significant contributions from leading stocks in the sector [3]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is implementing a cobalt export quota system to strengthen resource sovereignty, which is expected to systematically increase the market value of cobalt [2][3] - The DRC government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and plans to implement the export quota system thereafter, marking a shift from a surplus to a shortage cycle in the cobalt market [3] Key Points Cobalt Supply and Demand - The announced export quota for 2026 is insufficient to meet 70%-80% of the production capacity needs of Chinese cobalt companies, which consume over 30,000 tons annually [4][5] - China's total cobalt consumption is approximately 110,000 tons, with an additional export demand of around 20,000 tons, leading to a total demand of 170,000 tons [4] - Cobalt prices have surged from $5.4 per pound at the end of last year to $15.5-$16 per pound, nearly tripling, which has driven up the prices of cobalt sulfate and metal cobalt significantly [4][11] Regulatory Changes - The DRC government may impose regulatory and prepayment fees, and 27 out of 33 cobalt mining companies will need export licenses to obtain quotas [6] - Quotas will be adjusted quarterly to address market imbalances, with a higher likelihood of supply shortages rather than smuggling [6][10] Local vs. Foreign Companies - Local Congolese companies have received special permits for small-scale mining and processing into end products, with specific policies to be announced [8] - The DRC government is balancing local and foreign interests, indicating a potential shift in how resources are allocated [8] Transportation and Logistics - The transportation cycle from the DRC to China takes 90-120 days, meaning any relief from supply pressures will not be felt until early next year, even if quotas are approved [7] Market Dynamics - The cobalt industry is currently experiencing a global raw material supply tightness, with the DRC's official production last year reported at 198,000 tons, but actual production likely exceeding 220,000 tons [11] - The high prices of cobalt materials may impact the consumption of ternary materials in batteries, as insufficient cobalt content can severely affect battery performance [12] Future Outlook - Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate between 350,000 to 400,000 yuan in the next three months due to ongoing supply shortages [24] - The geopolitical landscape and technological advancements will further complicate the competition between the DRC and other cobalt sources [24] Recycling and Recovery - China recycles approximately 20,000 to 25,000 tons of cobalt annually, which provides some supply relief, but the high cost of recycled products limits their overall impact on demand [28][29] Conclusion - The DRC's new export quota system and regulatory changes are set to create significant shifts in the cobalt market, particularly affecting supply dynamics for Chinese companies. The ongoing high prices and potential supply shortages will likely continue to influence the industry in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) starting October 16, 2025, is expected to stabilize cobalt prices in the long term, positively impacting the company's performance [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The company is closely monitoring the distribution details of the export quota and is actively communicating with local regulatory authorities [1] - The company currently holds a safe inventory of cobalt raw materials, which positions it well for future operations [1] - If the company secures the necessary export quotas following the lifting of the cobalt export ban, combined with its capacity expansion and stable cobalt prices, it is likely to provide reliable support for overall performance [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The DRC's shift from a cobalt ban to an export quota system is a significant change that could influence the global cobalt market dynamics [1] - The future performance of the cobalt market will depend on the specific implementation details of the quota system [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cobalt raw material prices are on the rise, with smelters purchasing only as needed due to high prices of cobalt intermediates, leading some companies to switch to cobalt salts, which are currently in tight supply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Congolese government has extended the export ban on cobalt for three months starting from June 22, significantly impacting the market supply [1] - In July, China imported 13,800 tons of cobalt wet-process intermediate products, with expectations of a continued decline in subsequent months, further reducing smelters' raw material inventories [1] - The impending expiration of the three-month extension of the Congolese ban may lead to policy adjustments, including potential extensions or export quotas, reinforcing supply issues [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Outlook - The demand remains relatively strong during the consumption peak season, while supply tightness is expected to keep prices robust [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the extended cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ensuring normal production operations in the short term [1] - The company indicated that it can purchase a certain amount of cobalt raw materials through traders, suggesting that the pressure on raw materials is not particularly significant [1] - Secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and it has established good and close channel cooperation to secure a certain share as a supplement [1] Group 2 - The company will closely monitor the developments of the situation and prepare accordingly [1]