铝：国内库存小幅累积，铝价高位运行。1）氧化铝：产能高位叠加库存上升，氧化铝价格延续下跌。 本周氧化铝价格下跌1.08%为2750元/吨，氧化铝期货主力合约2602涨0.44%至2528元/吨。本周冶金级氧 化铝运行产能达8808.5万吨/年，周度开工率增加0.23pct为79.85%。短期内，氧化铝供需基本面仍维持 过剩格局，氧化铝库存持续累积，现货价格延续弱势。后续需持续关注氧化铝成本利润与运行产能情 况。2）国内库存小幅累积，铝价高位运行。本周沪铝跌0.54%至2.20万元/吨，电解铝毛利6057元/吨， 环比减少2.76%。宏观方面，美国11月失业率超预期，CPI低于预期，美联储降息预期升温，提振铝 价。国内库存累积，伦铝库存51.96万吨，环比减少0.01%，沪铝库存12.05万吨，环比增加0.43%，国内 现货库存为59.7万吨，环比增加2.40%。供给端，国内电解铝运行产能接近天花板，海外在建项目进度 缓慢，而需求端维持稳定增长，电解铝明年或出现短缺格局，铝价有望迎来上行周期。建议关注：中孚 实业、宏创控股、云铝股份、电投能源、天山铝业、神火股份、中国铝业、焦作万方。 锂：锂电需求旺盛，锂盐库存 ...

场外投资者还可以通过稀有金属ETF联接基金（014111）关注稀有金属板块投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证稀有金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀土、盐 湖股份、华友钴业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、中矿资源、中国稀土、厦门钨业、天华新能，前十大权重股 合计占比59.05%。 稀有金属ETF（562800）跟踪中证稀有金属主题指数，是布局稀有金属板块的便利工具。 2025年12月2日盘中，稀有金属板块震荡下行，截至10:44，中证稀有金属主题指数下跌1.57%。成分股 西部材料领涨，三祥新材、中钨高新跟涨；金力永磁领跌，中国稀土、雅化集团跟跌。 光大证券指出，新能源车新材料领域，电碳价格已攀升至9.21万元/吨，创近16个月新高，环比上涨 4.3%，同时氧化镨钕价格报566.92元/公斤，环比上涨3.4%，处于19个月以来高位。在供给端约束和需 求回暖双重驱动下，锂、稀土等关键材料价格表现坚挺，行业景气度显著回升。 其他金属方面，刚果（金）钴原料出口恢复进度低于预期，结构性紧缺格局仍在延续。尽管该国已于10 月实施钴出口配额制，但相关许可流程尚未完成，中间品发运仍处于停滞状态，预计国内 ...

Core Insights - The rare metals industry is experiencing a price increase across multiple segments, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in the new energy vehicle materials sector [1][2] - Lithium and rare earth materials are showing strong price performance, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 93,800 yuan/ton, up 1.6% month-on-month, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices at 167,500 yuan/ton, up 6.7% month-on-month [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium are shifting from a loose to a tighter market, with significant price increases observed in lithium salts and other materials [2] Industry Summary - Recent price increases in lithium and rare earth materials are attributed to supply-side constraints, including mining rights issues and environmental regulations affecting production [1][2] - The lithium battery supply chain is characterized by strong downstream demand, leading to a robust price increase across various materials [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to regulate "involutionary" competition and improve capacity management, which may help restore supply-demand balance and enhance profitability in the industry [2] Market Performance - The rare metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a 1.71% rise in the index and a notable inflow of capital, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The top-weighted stocks in the rare metals sector have shown substantial gains, with Tianhua New Energy up 8.26% and Luoyang Molybdenum up 5.05% [3] - The materials ETF has also performed well, with a near 3% increase and significant contributions from leading stocks in the sector [3]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is implementing a cobalt export quota system to strengthen resource sovereignty, which is expected to systematically increase the market value of cobalt [2][3] - The DRC government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and plans to implement the export quota system thereafter, marking a shift from a surplus to a shortage cycle in the cobalt market [3] Key Points Cobalt Supply and Demand - The announced export quota for 2026 is insufficient to meet 70%-80% of the production capacity needs of Chinese cobalt companies, which consume over 30,000 tons annually [4][5] - China's total cobalt consumption is approximately 110,000 tons, with an additional export demand of around 20,000 tons, leading to a total demand of 170,000 tons [4] - Cobalt prices have surged from $5.4 per pound at the end of last year to $15.5-$16 per pound, nearly tripling, which has driven up the prices of cobalt sulfate and metal cobalt significantly [4][11] Regulatory Changes - The DRC government may impose regulatory and prepayment fees, and 27 out of 33 cobalt mining companies will need export licenses to obtain quotas [6] - Quotas will be adjusted quarterly to address market imbalances, with a higher likelihood of supply shortages rather than smuggling [6][10] Local vs. Foreign Companies - Local Congolese companies have received special permits for small-scale mining and processing into end products, with specific policies to be announced [8] - The DRC government is balancing local and foreign interests, indicating a potential shift in how resources are allocated [8] Transportation and Logistics - The transportation cycle from the DRC to China takes 90-120 days, meaning any relief from supply pressures will not be felt until early next year, even if quotas are approved [7] Market Dynamics - The cobalt industry is currently experiencing a global raw material supply tightness, with the DRC's official production last year reported at 198,000 tons, but actual production likely exceeding 220,000 tons [11] - The high prices of cobalt materials may impact the consumption of ternary materials in batteries, as insufficient cobalt content can severely affect battery performance [12] Future Outlook - Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate between 350,000 to 400,000 yuan in the next three months due to ongoing supply shortages [24] - The geopolitical landscape and technological advancements will further complicate the competition between the DRC and other cobalt sources [24] Recycling and Recovery - China recycles approximately 20,000 to 25,000 tons of cobalt annually, which provides some supply relief, but the high cost of recycled products limits their overall impact on demand [28][29] Conclusion - The DRC's new export quota system and regulatory changes are set to create significant shifts in the cobalt market, particularly affecting supply dynamics for Chinese companies. The ongoing high prices and potential supply shortages will likely continue to influence the industry in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) starting October 16, 2025, is expected to stabilize cobalt prices in the long term, positively impacting the company's performance [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The company is closely monitoring the distribution details of the export quota and is actively communicating with local regulatory authorities [1] - The company currently holds a safe inventory of cobalt raw materials, which positions it well for future operations [1] - If the company secures the necessary export quotas following the lifting of the cobalt export ban, combined with its capacity expansion and stable cobalt prices, it is likely to provide reliable support for overall performance [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The DRC's shift from a cobalt ban to an export quota system is a significant change that could influence the global cobalt market dynamics [1] - The future performance of the cobalt market will depend on the specific implementation details of the quota system [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cobalt raw material prices are on the rise, with smelters purchasing only as needed due to high prices of cobalt intermediates, leading some companies to switch to cobalt salts, which are currently in tight supply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Congolese government has extended the export ban on cobalt for three months starting from June 22, significantly impacting the market supply [1] - In July, China imported 13,800 tons of cobalt wet-process intermediate products, with expectations of a continued decline in subsequent months, further reducing smelters' raw material inventories [1] - The impending expiration of the three-month extension of the Congolese ban may lead to policy adjustments, including potential extensions or export quotas, reinforcing supply issues [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Outlook - The demand remains relatively strong during the consumption peak season, while supply tightness is expected to keep prices robust [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the extended cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ensuring normal production operations in the short term [1] - The company indicated that it can purchase a certain amount of cobalt raw materials through traders, suggesting that the pressure on raw materials is not particularly significant [1] - Secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and it has established good and close channel cooperation to secure a certain share as a supplement [1] Group 2 - The company will closely monitor the developments of the situation and prepare accordingly [1]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the cobalt industry, particularly the impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) extending its cobalt export ban for an additional three months starting June 22, 2025, to manage high cobalt inventory levels in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Dynamics**: The initial export ban led to a nearly 100% increase in cobalt raw material prices, rising from $5.6 per pound to over $12 per pound, while metal cobalt prices increased approximately 50%, from $10 to $15.2 per pound [2]. - **Impact on Chinese Companies**: Despite an increase in cobalt raw material imports in the four months prior to the ban, Chinese companies are expected to face raw material shortages post-July, potentially leading to production halts in small to medium enterprises and reduced capacity in larger firms [1][2]. - **Future Price Trends**: Cobalt prices are anticipated to experience two phases: short-term fluctuations due to DRC policies and potential price increases from late July to mid-August due to insufficient raw material inventories [4]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Current supply growth outpaces demand growth, indicating that the fundamental supply-demand balance will not change significantly in the short term [4][5]. - **Inventory Levels**: The industry currently holds approximately 70,000 to 80,000 tons of inventory, with about 50% allocated to raw materials. If prices on the Wuxi electronic market rise to 240,000-250,000 RMB, profit-taking may occur, impacting project timelines [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Export Quota**: The DRC's monthly export quota of 10,000 tons is deemed insufficient for maintaining supply-demand balance, with recommendations to increase it to 12,000-13,000 tons or supplement with Indonesian MHP [2][13]. - **Downstream Impact**: Rising prices of ternary materials will negatively affect downstream industries, particularly in low-nickel production, limiting growth potential in lower-end vehicle applications [12]. - **Future Production from Indonesia**: Indonesia's MHP production is projected to exceed 40,000 tons in 2025 and could reach 80,000-90,000 tons by 2027, which may help alleviate supply constraints [15]. - **Electric Vehicle Battery Costs**: The rising costs of cobalt resources may lead to increased production costs for electric vehicles, particularly affecting the adoption of ternary lithium batteries in mid to high-end vehicles [10][22]. Conclusion - The DRC's extended export ban on cobalt is a significant factor influencing the cobalt market, with potential implications for pricing, supply chain dynamics, and production capacities in China and beyond. The industry must navigate these challenges while adapting to changing market conditions and inventory levels.