钴专家交流 20251008 摘要 钴原料价格从去年底 5.4 美元/磅涨至 15.5-16 美元/磅，涨幅近三倍， 带动硫酸钴和金属钴价格大幅上涨。成本预期是主要驱动因素，禁运措 施若不采取，全产业链将低位运行。 中国钴行业自 2025 年 6 月起加速消化库存，预计年底仍将持续。若按 每月 8,000-9,000 吨的速度消耗，未来钴产业链仍需处理约 4 万吨库存。 当前供应短缺下，配额制度难以导致价格明显下滑，或将持续上涨。 以上。而即使每年 9 万多吨的配额完全给中国，加上印尼 4 万吨和回收 2 万吨， 也无法满足这一需求。因此，中国钴产业链已进入供应紧缺状态。 刚果政府在实施钴出口配额制度时有哪些具体政策和细节？ 刚果政府可能会收取一些费用，包括监管费用和预付费用。此外，33 个含钴开 采项目中的 27 家公司需要获得出口许可证才能拿到配额。若市场出现失衡， 刚果政府将按季度调整配额。这意味着如果供应短缺严重，可以增加季度配额； 反之，如果价格暴跌且供应过剩，则可能减少季度配额。然而，由于走私或其 他渠道运输货物的可能性较小，因此第一种情况更为可能。 中国企业如何应对刚果金新的政策变化？ 刚果金实 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：刚果（金）的限钴令对公司业绩影响有多大？ （记者 曾健辉） 道氏技术（300409.SZ）9月24日在投资者互动平台表示，从2025年10月16日起，刚果（金）将以出口配 额制取代已持续数月的钴禁令。配额制度的实施，有望维持未来钴价长期稳定，公司正密切关注配额的 分配细则，并且与当地监管部门积极沟通中。目前，公司钴原料保有安全库存储备。未来，随着刚果 （金） 将钴出口禁令的解除，公司若能拿到相应配额，叠加公司产能扩张与释放、以及钴价维持较好 价格水平，有望为整体业绩提供可靠保障。具体配额需以实施细则为准。敬请投资者关注相应风险。 ...

近期钴原料价格继续上行，高价钴中间品的压力下，钴冶炼厂仅按需采购，部分企业转而选用钴盐替 代，钴盐现货资源相对紧张。 中信建投（601066）证券指出，刚果(金)政府自6月22日起延长3个月出口禁令，至今市场钴原料已显著 消化，7月我国进口钴湿法冶炼中间品量1.38万吨，预计后续月份继续下降，冶炼厂原料库存进一步压 降。刚果(金)禁令三个月延长期即将到期，后续或调整政策，继续延长或配额出口，钴供给问题进一步 强化，消费旺季下需求相对较好，供给紧张，价格有望保持强势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the extended cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ensuring normal production operations in the short term [1] - The company indicated that it can purchase a certain amount of cobalt raw materials through traders, suggesting that the pressure on raw materials is not particularly significant [1] - Secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and it has established good and close channel cooperation to secure a certain share as a supplement [1] Group 2 - The company will closely monitor the developments of the situation and prepare accordingly [1]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the cobalt industry, particularly the impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) extending its cobalt export ban for an additional three months starting June 22, 2025, to manage high cobalt inventory levels in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Dynamics**: The initial export ban led to a nearly 100% increase in cobalt raw material prices, rising from $5.6 per pound to over $12 per pound, while metal cobalt prices increased approximately 50%, from $10 to $15.2 per pound [2]. - **Impact on Chinese Companies**: Despite an increase in cobalt raw material imports in the four months prior to the ban, Chinese companies are expected to face raw material shortages post-July, potentially leading to production halts in small to medium enterprises and reduced capacity in larger firms [1][2]. - **Future Price Trends**: Cobalt prices are anticipated to experience two phases: short-term fluctuations due to DRC policies and potential price increases from late July to mid-August due to insufficient raw material inventories [4]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Current supply growth outpaces demand growth, indicating that the fundamental supply-demand balance will not change significantly in the short term [4][5]. - **Inventory Levels**: The industry currently holds approximately 70,000 to 80,000 tons of inventory, with about 50% allocated to raw materials. If prices on the Wuxi electronic market rise to 240,000-250,000 RMB, profit-taking may occur, impacting project timelines [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Export Quota**: The DRC's monthly export quota of 10,000 tons is deemed insufficient for maintaining supply-demand balance, with recommendations to increase it to 12,000-13,000 tons or supplement with Indonesian MHP [2][13]. - **Downstream Impact**: Rising prices of ternary materials will negatively affect downstream industries, particularly in low-nickel production, limiting growth potential in lower-end vehicle applications [12]. - **Future Production from Indonesia**: Indonesia's MHP production is projected to exceed 40,000 tons in 2025 and could reach 80,000-90,000 tons by 2027, which may help alleviate supply constraints [15]. - **Electric Vehicle Battery Costs**: The rising costs of cobalt resources may lead to increased production costs for electric vehicles, particularly affecting the adoption of ternary lithium batteries in mid to high-end vehicles [10][22]. Conclusion - The DRC's extended export ban on cobalt is a significant factor influencing the cobalt market, with potential implications for pricing, supply chain dynamics, and production capacities in China and beyond. The industry must navigate these challenges while adapting to changing market conditions and inventory levels.