Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The market has strong expectations for supply - side reform policies after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, which has boosted the prices of iron alloys. However, the current market shows a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. Although there is a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the long - term, with the steel consumption entering the off - season, the iron alloy market remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with a low pressure. The iron alloy will continue the de - stocking trend, but the speed has slowed down. There are expectations of electricity price cuts and a decline in manganese ore prices in July. The iron alloy is expected to run weakly, but due to the decline in positions and low valuations, it may be disturbed by news in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.4% [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SF2509 and SM2509 futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Policy expectations from the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting have boosted iron alloy prices, but the market faces a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mill price - pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of steel consumption. However, de - stocking continues, and there are expectations of cost reduction. In the short - term, rebounds may occur, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3] 3.4利多解读 (Positive Analysis) Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot - metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Also, due to the continuous price decline, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [6] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. Similar to silicon iron, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [7] 3.5利空解读 (Negative Analysis) Silicon Iron - There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of iron alloys is expected to decline further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 69,400 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period, and the silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [11] Silicon Manganese - In the long - term, the real - estate market slump and the decline of the black sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a 2.82% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output is 179,200 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period [12] 3.6 Daily Data Silicon Iron - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [8] Silicon Manganese - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [9]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/1 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 14.32% | 28.1% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 14.62% | 23.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | 期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak in the long - term due to factors such as cost reduction expectations, demand off - season, and negative feedback in the black market. However, in the short - term, there may be a limited rebound due to low valuations and reduced positions, and opportunities to short after the rebound should be awaited [3]. - The negative impact of high inventory and high supply on ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is gradually weakening, and they will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 17.44% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.2%, and for ferromanganese, it is 22.21% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 55.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 15% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 6200 - 6250 and ferromanganese is at 6400 - 6500. For procurement management with low inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 25% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 5100 - 5200 and ferromanganese is at 5300 - 5400 [2]. Core Contradictions - **Long - term Weakness**: Affected by factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of terminal steel demand, ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak. The cost is expected to decline due to potential electricity price cuts and the arrival of the southern rainy season, and the negative feedback from the demand off - season in the black market also adds to the downward pressure [3]. - **De - stocking Trend**: The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. The de - stocking trend will continue, but the speed has slowed down [3]. - **Short - term Rebound**: With the decline in positions and low valuations, there may be a short - term rebound, but the rebound space is limited [3]. 利多 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel mill profitability maintains high molten iron production, which supports ferrosilicon demand. Low valuations, bottom - level profits, and a 2.71% week - on - week decrease in enterprise inventory to 6.81 tons also suggest potential for a rebound [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. The de - stocking trend, low valuations, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease in warehouse receipts to 47.48 tons, and a 0.73% week - on - week decrease in total inventory to 68.07 tons are positive factors [5]. 利空 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production rate increased by 1.34% to 32.69%, and the weekly output increased by 2.93% to 9.79 tons. The weak coal market also implies a potential further decline in electricity cost [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The long - term weakness in the real estate market and doubts about steel demand growth lead to weak demand. The weekly production rate increased by 1.09% to 36.39%, the weekly output increased by 1.85% to 17.66 tons, and the enterprise inventory increased by 5.1% to 20.59 tons. The July quotation of manganese ore decreased [7]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared to June 20. The basis in Ningxia was 150, and the warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 12535 compared to June 20 [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations. The basis in Inner Mongolia was 234, and the warehouse receipts increased by 49 compared to June 20 [9][10]. Seasonal Data - Multiple seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including market price seasonality, futures basis seasonality, and futures spread seasonality, which can help analyze historical price trends and fluctuations [11][25][36].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/28 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 17.64% | 50.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 28.91% | 86.0% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/16 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: May 15, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as many short - sellers take profits and leave the market. Silicon iron increased production this week, with inventory reduction and an increase in warrant registration. Although high hot metal in downstream demand still provides some support, the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. With the cooling of macro - optimistic sentiment in the short term, ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 6.9% - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 27.9% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High hot metal supports the demand for silicon iron - After continuous decline, low - valued silicon iron may rebound - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment - Silicon iron factory inventory decreased by 11.8% compared with the previous period [7] Silicon Manganese - Decline in开工率 and production, with increased losses of producers recently, strengthening the willingness to cut production and some areas having shutdown for maintenance - Strict government control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment [7] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increased by 3.9% this week, and warrants increased by 7.77% compared with the previous period - High inventory level of silicon iron suppresses prices as market demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continued to accumulate, with a 13.9% increase compared with the previous period as of May 11 - High factory inventory combined with high warrants increases the total inventory, suppressing price increases due to oversupply [12] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 114, with a daily - on - daily change of - 104 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 146; the 01 - 05 spread was 82, with a daily - on - daily change of 18 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 05 - 09 spread was - 32, with a daily - on - daily change of - 8 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 6; the 09 - 01 spread was - 50, with a daily - on - daily change of - 10 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 6 - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 19189, with a daily - on - daily increase of 141 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 161 [10] Silicon Manganese - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a daily - on - daily change of - 78 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 184; the 01 - 05 spread was 128, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 24; the 05 - 09 spread was - 74, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 09 - 01 spread was - 54, with a daily - on - daily change of 4 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 24 - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 118553, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 140 and a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 1621 [11]

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/13 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6400-6500 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | | 空 | 为了防止铁合金上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入铁 | SF2509、SM | 买入 | 25% | SF:5300-5400、SM: | | 理 | 订单情况进行采购 | | | 合金期货，在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | 2509 | | | 5300-5400 | source： ...