Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Report Title - Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] Date - July 10, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrous alloys showed a certain rebound sentiment driven by the rebound in coal prices and technical buying. Last week, they maintained an upward trend with the proposed elimination of outdated production capacity. The recent upward trend is mainly due to policy expectations and the strength of coal prices. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price cuts and weakening costs. In the context of the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off - season, the long - term trend of ferrous alloys remains relatively weak. With profit restoration, the operating rate has rebounded, and production is in a state of over - seasonal increase. Output has slightly increased, but downstream demand has not changed significantly, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation. With the price reduction of manganese ore in August and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferrous alloys are expected to continue to operate weakly. Although ferrous alloys, as an over - capacity industry, benefited from the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity last week, after the market recovery, there is a high possibility of profit restoration and increased production, supply pressure will gradually increase, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. In the short term, the strong expectation is prevailing in the game between strong expectation and weak reality, and it remains to be seen whether the expectation can be realized [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Alloy Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 16.37% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.7%, and for ferromanganese, it is 14.42% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] Ferrous Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [2] Core Contradiction - Ferrous alloys rebounded due to coal price and policy factors, but the long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mills' price cuts, weakening costs, and off - season demand. There is a trend of over - seasonal production increase and inventory accumulation. After the market recovery, supply pressure may increase [3] Bullish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.46%. The profit in the Ningxia production area was - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [4] - **Ferromanganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the profit in the northern region was - 158.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.54 yuan, and in the southern region, it was - 489.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.98 yuan [6] Bearish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit restoration. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 31.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%, and the weekly output was 100,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%. There is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of ferrous alloys. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration following the June cancellation rules. The expected decline in hot metal production will weaken the support for ferrous alloys [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand lead to weak demand for ferromanganese. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 40.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%, and the weekly output was 180,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [8] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 8, a day - on - day decrease of 92 and a week - on - week decrease of 6. The 01 - 05 spread was - 46, a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 84, a day - on - day increase of 6 and a week - on - week increase of 42. The 09 - 01 spread was - 38, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 17,855, a day - on - day increase of 5028 and a week - on - week increase of 8177 [9] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 132, a day - on - day decrease of 68 and a week - on - week increase of 8. The 01 - 05 spread was - 24, a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 12. The 05 - 09 spread was 60, a day - on - day decrease of 12 and a week - on - week decrease of 16. The 09 - 01 spread was - 36, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The double - silicon spread was - 326, a day - on - day decrease of 26 and a week - on - week decrease of 36. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 85,444, a day - on - day decrease of 547 and a week - on - week decrease of 4154 [10][11] Seasonal Charts - Provided seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The market has strong expectations for supply - side reform policies after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, which has boosted the prices of iron alloys. However, the current market shows a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. Although there is a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the long - term, with the steel consumption entering the off - season, the iron alloy market remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with a low pressure. The iron alloy will continue the de - stocking trend, but the speed has slowed down. There are expectations of electricity price cuts and a decline in manganese ore prices in July. The iron alloy is expected to run weakly, but due to the decline in positions and low valuations, it may be disturbed by news in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.4% [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SF2509 and SM2509 futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Policy expectations from the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting have boosted iron alloy prices, but the market faces a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mill price - pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of steel consumption. However, de - stocking continues, and there are expectations of cost reduction. In the short - term, rebounds may occur, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3] 3.4利多解读 (Positive Analysis) Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot - metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Also, due to the continuous price decline, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [6] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. Similar to silicon iron, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [7] 3.5利空解读 (Negative Analysis) Silicon Iron - There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of iron alloys is expected to decline further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 69,400 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period, and the silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [11] Silicon Manganese - In the long - term, the real - estate market slump and the decline of the black sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a 2.82% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output is 179,200 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period [12] 3.6 Daily Data Silicon Iron - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [8] Silicon Manganese - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market has a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand gradually entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. Ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of electricity price reduction for ferroalloys, and with the arrival of the southern wet season, the cost side is still expected to decline. The manganese ore price quotation for July is down, and combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. However, the position volume of ferroalloys has decreased, some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is easily disturbed by news. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.4% [2]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement standing inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The ferroalloy market is affected by technical buying and has a rebound sentiment, but the spot market is under pressure from steel mills and cost weakening. In the long - term, the trend is weak. The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the de - stocking trend continues but at a slower pace. There are expectations of cost reduction, and the market is expected to be weak, but may rebound in the short - term with limited space [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Silicon Iron**: High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Silicon iron has been falling, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon manganese industry. Silicon manganese has been falling, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [6]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Silicon Iron**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of ferroalloys is expected to decrease further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 6.94 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.47%, and the silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory is being re - registered after cancellation in June, which is higher than the historical average [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.82%; the weekly output is 17.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.47%. The enterprise inventory is 22.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%; the warehouse receipt is 46 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%; the total inventory is 68.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% [10]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On July 1, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 136, the 01 - 05 spread was - 34, the 05 - 09 spread was 10, the 09 - 01 spread was 24. The spot prices in different regions showed some declines. The silicon iron warehouse receipt was 9109 [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 1, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 258, the 01 - 05 spread was - 26, the 05 - 09 spread was 64, the 09 - 01 spread was - 38. The spot prices in different regions also had some changes. The silicon manganese warehouse receipt was 88062 [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak in the long - term due to factors such as cost reduction expectations, demand off - season, and negative feedback in the black market. However, in the short - term, there may be a limited rebound due to low valuations and reduced positions, and opportunities to short after the rebound should be awaited [3]. - The negative impact of high inventory and high supply on ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is gradually weakening, and they will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 17.44% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.2%, and for ferromanganese, it is 22.21% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 55.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 15% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 6200 - 6250 and ferromanganese is at 6400 - 6500. For procurement management with low inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 25% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 5100 - 5200 and ferromanganese is at 5300 - 5400 [2]. Core Contradictions - **Long - term Weakness**: Affected by factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of terminal steel demand, ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak. The cost is expected to decline due to potential electricity price cuts and the arrival of the southern rainy season, and the negative feedback from the demand off - season in the black market also adds to the downward pressure [3]. - **De - stocking Trend**: The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. The de - stocking trend will continue, but the speed has slowed down [3]. - **Short - term Rebound**: With the decline in positions and low valuations, there may be a short - term rebound, but the rebound space is limited [3]. 利多 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel mill profitability maintains high molten iron production, which supports ferrosilicon demand. Low valuations, bottom - level profits, and a 2.71% week - on - week decrease in enterprise inventory to 6.81 tons also suggest potential for a rebound [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. The de - stocking trend, low valuations, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease in warehouse receipts to 47.48 tons, and a 0.73% week - on - week decrease in total inventory to 68.07 tons are positive factors [5]. 利空 Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production rate increased by 1.34% to 32.69%, and the weekly output increased by 2.93% to 9.79 tons. The weak coal market also implies a potential further decline in electricity cost [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The long - term weakness in the real estate market and doubts about steel demand growth lead to weak demand. The weekly production rate increased by 1.09% to 36.39%, the weekly output increased by 1.85% to 17.66 tons, and the enterprise inventory increased by 5.1% to 20.59 tons. The July quotation of manganese ore decreased [7]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared to June 20. The basis in Ningxia was 150, and the warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 12535 compared to June 20 [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations. The basis in Inner Mongolia was 234, and the warehouse receipts increased by 49 compared to June 20 [9][10]. Seasonal Data - Multiple seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including market price seasonality, futures basis seasonality, and futures spread seasonality, which can help analyze historical price trends and fluctuations [11][25][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon iron continues to cut production, with limited demand growth and potential cost decline, so its price is expected to stay low and fluctuate weakly. Silicon manganese was affected by South African policies on Thursday, but the policy implementation takes time. With weak demand and high inventory, the price increase is restricted. After the market digested the policy impact, the silicon manganese market is expected to have a narrow and weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, supply - side changes, and manganese ore shipping performance [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.64% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 50.0%. For silicon manganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.91% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 86.0% [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short silicon iron and silicon manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy silicon iron and silicon manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5300 - 5400 for both silicon iron and silicon manganese [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Silicon iron: Continued production cuts, limited demand growth, and potential cost decline lead to a lack of upward momentum in valuation, with the price expected to stay low and fluctuate weakly [3] - Silicon manganese: Affected by South African policies, but the policy implementation takes time. Weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. After the market digested the policy impact, it is expected to have a narrow and weak consolidation in the short term [3] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: High hot metal production supports demand; low - valued silicon iron may rebound; the weekly production rate of silicon iron enterprises is 30.42%, a 0.8% decrease from last week, and the weekly output is 8.89 tons, a 4.92% decrease [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading; the total silicon manganese inventory is high but shows a de - stocking trend [7] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: Hot metal production starts to decline; high inventory suppresses prices; high port inventory of thermal coal and weak coal market may lead to a further decline in ferroalloy electricity costs [8][10] - **Silicon Manganese**: Long - term real - estate market downturn and doubts about steel terminal demand growth lead to weak silicon manganese demand; high factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, and the oversupply situation restricts price increases; the weekly production rate of silicon manganese enterprises is 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from last week, and the weekly output is 16.52 tons, a 1.51% increase [8] 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On May 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 148, with no daily change but a 68 increase week - on - week. The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to May 21. The silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 20 daily and 2439 week - on - week [9] - **Silicon Manganese**: On May 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 284, a 2 increase daily and a 112 increase week - on - week. The spot prices in different regions also declined compared to May 21. The silicon manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 672 daily and 3250 week - on - week [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing, with the pressure of high supply alleviated, but supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, though there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as short - sellers take profits and exit. Ningxia's silicon - iron production area has cut production, with inventory reduction and an increase in warehouse - receipt registration. High hot - metal demand in the downstream still provides some support, but the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. In the short term, the macro - optimistic sentiment has cooled, and ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 6.9% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 27.9% [2] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging 3.2.1 Inventory Management - Behavior orientation: Manage inventory when finished - product inventory is high and worried about ferroalloy price decline [2] - Spot exposure: Long [2] - Strategy recommendation: Short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory [2] - Hedging tools: SF2509, SM2509 [2] - Buying/selling direction: Sell [2] - Hedging ratio: 15% [2] - Recommended entry range: SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - Behavior orientation: Manage procurement when the regular inventory for procurement is low and want to purchase according to orders [2] - Spot exposure: Short [2] - Strategy recommendation: Buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] - Hedging tools: SF2509, SM2509 [2] - Buying/selling direction: Buy [2] - Hedging ratio: 25% [2] - Recommended entry range: SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Silicon manganese: Maintains production - cut pricing, high - supply pressure eases, but supply still exceeds demand. There is high - inventory pressure, and there may be a short - term rebound [3] - Silicon iron: Ningxia's production area cuts production, inventory decreases, and warehouse - receipt registration increases. High hot - metal demand provides support, but the high - inventory pattern remains [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - High hot - metal demand supports silicon - iron demand [7] - Silicon iron has fallen continuously, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty and improve market sentiment [7] - Silicon - iron factory inventory decreases, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [7] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese -开工率 and production decline, producers' losses increase, and the willingness to cut production strengthens, with some areas shutting down for maintenance [7] - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty and improve market sentiment [7] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - Silicon - iron inventory is at a high level, and the slow recovery of market demand compared to supply growth suppresses prices [8] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - Silicon - manganese factory inventory continues to accumulate, with a month - on - month increase of 13.9% as of May 11 [9] - High factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, and the oversupply situation suppresses price increases [9] 3.6 Daily Data 3.6.1 Silicon Iron - Data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantity, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [10] 3.6.2 Silicon Manganese - Data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantity, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: May 15, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as many short - sellers take profits and leave the market. Silicon iron increased production this week, with inventory reduction and an increase in warrant registration. Although high hot metal in downstream demand still provides some support, the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. With the cooling of macro - optimistic sentiment in the short term, ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 6.9% - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 27.9% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High hot metal supports the demand for silicon iron - After continuous decline, low - valued silicon iron may rebound - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment - Silicon iron factory inventory decreased by 11.8% compared with the previous period [7] Silicon Manganese - Decline in开工率 and production, with increased losses of producers recently, strengthening the willingness to cut production and some areas having shutdown for maintenance - Strict government control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment [7] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increased by 3.9% this week, and warrants increased by 7.77% compared with the previous period - High inventory level of silicon iron suppresses prices as market demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continued to accumulate, with a 13.9% increase compared with the previous period as of May 11 - High factory inventory combined with high warrants increases the total inventory, suppressing price increases due to oversupply [12] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 114, with a daily - on - daily change of - 104 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 146; the 01 - 05 spread was 82, with a daily - on - daily change of 18 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 05 - 09 spread was - 32, with a daily - on - daily change of - 8 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 6; the 09 - 01 spread was - 50, with a daily - on - daily change of - 10 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 6 - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 19189, with a daily - on - daily increase of 141 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 161 [10] Silicon Manganese - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a daily - on - daily change of - 78 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 184; the 01 - 05 spread was 128, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 24; the 05 - 09 spread was - 74, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 09 - 01 spread was - 54, with a daily - on - daily change of 4 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 24 - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 118553, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 140 and a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 1621 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon manganese maintains the trend of production - cut pricing, with the pressure of high supply alleviated, but supply still exceeds demand. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound as short - sellers take profits and leave. Silicon iron's production increased this week, inventory decreased, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased. There is still support from high hot - metal demand, but the high - inventory pattern remains. Wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 6.9% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 27.9% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Silicon manganese: Maintains production - cut pricing, high - supply pressure eases, but supply still exceeds demand. Warehouse inventory accumulates this week, and warehouse receipts start to decline. There is a short - term rebound possibility [3] - Silicon iron: Production increases this week, inventory decreases, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increases. High - inventory pattern remains, waiting for a rebound to short at high prices [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretation" in English) 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - High hot - metal demand supports silicon iron [7] - Silicon iron has fallen continuously, with low valuation and a possibility of rebound [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty, improving market sentiment [7] - Silicon iron factory inventory decreases, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [7] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese -开工率 and production decline, producers' losses increase, and the willingness to cut production strengthens. Some production areas stop production for maintenance [7] - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty, improving market sentiment [7] 3.5利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretation" in English) 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increases this week, with a month - on - month increase of 3.9%, and warehouse receipts increase by 7.77% month - on - month [12] - High inventory suppresses silicon iron prices as demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continues to accumulate, with a month - on - month increase of 13.9% as of May 11 [12] - High factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, suppressing price increases [12] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - On May 13, 2025, silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 114, with a day - on - day decrease of 104 and a week - on - week decrease of 146 [10] - Silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 64, with a day - on - day increase of 76 and a week - on - week decrease of 58 [10] - Silicon iron 05 - 09 spread was - 24, with a day - on - day decrease of 84 and a week - on - week increase of 28 [10] - Silicon iron 09 - 01 spread was - 40, with a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 30 [10] - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes [10] - Lantern coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal prices remained unchanged [10] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts were 19048, with a day - on - day increase of 172 and a week - on - week increase of 1186 [10] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - On May 13, 2025, silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a day - on - day decrease of 78 and a week - on - week decrease of 184 [11] - Silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 130, with a day - on - day increase of 2 and a week - on - week decrease of 28 [11] - Silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was - 72, with a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 6 [11] - Silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was - 58, with a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 22 [11] - The double - silicon spread was - 230, with a day - on - day increase of 46 and a week - on - week decrease of 68 [11] - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes [11] - Prices of various ores and Inner Mongolia chemical coke remained unchanged [11] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 119280, with a day - on - day increase of 464 and a week - on - week decrease of 5291 [11]