Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - drive is positive, and the prices of the black series have rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is weak, but the pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices. However, the domestic demand is resilient, and the basis of iron ore has strengthened year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved market sentiment. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound, and the price will run in a range [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Outer ore shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with stable shipments from Australia and a relative rebound in shipments from Brazil to a high - shipment range. The arrival volume dropped significantly for two consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply of outer ore increased steadily, and the immediate supply decreased significantly month - on - month, strengthening the support at the supply end [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continued to decline month - on - month due to environmental protection in Hebei causing some steel mills to shut down or reduce loads. Although the blast furnace operating rate increased this week, the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year. The blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate continued to decline slowly, and considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end increased slightly month - on - month as steel mills entered the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume and a decline in the port clearance volume caused by weather, port inventories continued to accumulate month - on - month [4]. Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 785 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an outer - market price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [5]. Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110. Be cautious about the price decline caused by steel mills' production cuts due to negative feedback from the bottom - up stage, which may occur from late October to early November. After mid - November, prices may be relatively strong as steel enterprises start winter storage [3][55]. - The global iron ore supply is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, while the demand is expected to decrease by about 8.62 million tons [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Insufficient Domestic Demand and Limited External Demand 1.1 Domestic Demand: Weak Steel Demand and Decrease in Hot Metal Production in the Fourth Quarter - Downstream demand shows that building material demand is at a low level, plate demand is at a high level in the same period and remains resilient, and non - five major steel products perform moderately. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year steel demand decreased slightly by 1.29%, and the growth rates of the three major investments continued to decline in August. In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in domestic steel demand [11]. - In the third quarter, the long - process profit was acceptable, and steel enterprises' production enthusiasm was high. The addition of scrap steel increased, and the output of five major steel products increased year - on - year. As raw material prices strengthened, the cost - effectiveness of hot metal compared with scrap steel decreased. According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated daily average hot metal output in the third quarter was 2.4005 million tons, with a quarterly total of 221 million tons. The estimated hot metal output in the fourth quarter is 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 7.02 million tons in iron ore demand. The decline in hot metal production depends more on steel enterprises' profit adjustment, and production cuts may occur after November [19][20]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Operating at a Low Level in the Range with a Decrease Quarter - on - Quarter - With the slowdown of inflation in major overseas economies and the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, the economic vitality of major economies has been somewhat boosted. However, the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, and the increase in overseas steel demand is limited [21]. - The steel production of countries outside China is generally stable. Japan and South Korea are gradually reducing their steel production capacity to deal with domestic over - capacity, and their pig iron production remains at a low level. European iron ore demand is generally weak. India's steel production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and pig iron production in Southeast Asia is also growing at a high rate. The total pig iron production outside China is expected to be 104 million tons in the fourth quarter, a decrease of about 1 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 1.6 million tons in iron ore demand [29][33]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 7.02 million tons in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 1.6 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [34][35]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - No Increment Seen 2.1 Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil: Restocking Drives Shipping Volume to Surge in the Second Half - In Australia, the total iron ore shipping volume of the three major mines in the third quarter was 202 million tons, and it is expected to be about 204 million tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2 million tons compared with the previous quarter. In Brazil, Vale's shipping volume in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the increase in the fourth quarter is limited, with a total shipping volume of 75 million tons, a decrease of 3.15 million tons compared with the previous quarter. Overall, the total iron ore shipping volume of the four major mines in the fourth quarter will decrease by about 1.05 million tons compared with the previous quarter, but the shipping volume will increase in December due to winter storage restocking by domestic steel mills [38]. 2.2 Non - Mainstream Overseas Mines and Domestic Mines: Constrained by Costs and Generally Stable - In the third quarter, the iron ore price strengthened, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines was strong. In the fourth quarter, if domestic steel mills maintain the current production rhythm, the downward pressure on the ore price is relatively small, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines can still remain at a high level. If domestic steel enterprises cut production due to losses or policy requirements, the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines may decrease slightly. It is estimated that the shipping volume will be 134 million tons, a decrease of about 5 million tons compared with the previous quarter. - For domestic mines, the production of iron ore concentrate decreased slightly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. Due to the same cost constraints as non - mainstream mines, the production is proportional to the price. It is estimated that the production of iron ore concentrate in the fourth quarter will be about 61.35 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous quarter [43]. 2.3 Supply Side Summary - The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [3][46]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Double Increase in Inventory May Boost Ore Price - In terms of ports, the inventory of 45 ports at the end of the third quarter was 140 million tons, showing a slight inventory build - up in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is statically neutral to slightly loose, and the inventory may show an overall build - up. - For steel mills, especially in the second half of the fourth quarter, they will gradually enter the stage of restocking imported ore, which will continuously support the ore price [51]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary - Supply: The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Demand: The global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Inventory: Port inventory may show an overall build - up, while steel mills' restocking of imported ore in the second half of the fourth quarter will support the ore price. Overall, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore in the fourth quarter is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110 [55].

Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In October, iron ore prices will be dragged down by terminal demand. After the end - of - Q3 shipping rush, overseas mines' shipments are expected to decline seasonally, and arrivals are also expected to decrease. Steel mills' hot metal production remains high, but downstream terminal demand is weak. After the pre - holiday restocking, the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will accumulate. If the finished product inventory pressure increases and steel prices adjust downward, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and port inventories are expected to increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the policy directions from the Fourth Plenary Session in late October and the potential impact of sudden news on prices [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In September, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8238 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,400 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in September was 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of September, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 71 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the Carajás - PB powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton; the Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of September, the pellet feed ratio was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the lump ore feed ratio was 12.06%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of September, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 5.63 percentage points [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; pellet inventory was 2.7865 million tons, a decrease of 47,200 tons; iron concentrate inventory was 10.8306 million tons, a decrease of 295,300 tons; lump ore inventory was 17.2213 million tons, an increase of 682,300 tons; Australian ore port inventory was 59.1619 million tons, a decrease of 621,200 tons; Brazilian ore port inventory was 53.5452 million tons, an increase of 3.1776 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 7.292 million tons [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In September, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. Rio Tinto's weekly average shipments were 6.319 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons; BHP's were 5.4408 million tons, an increase of 192,400 tons; Vale's were 5.3985 million tons, a decrease of 1.2485 million tons; FMG's were 4.1385 million tons, an increase of 509,700 tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In September, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of September, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 478,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in September was 72.05 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month. At the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In September, the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [69]. 6. Basis As of September 30, the calculated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 54.21 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.49% [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the continuous weakening of the finished product and coking coal futures prices, iron ore prices made up for the decline. The support on the supply side of iron ore has weakened, and the high - toughness on the demand side has been shaken. The relatively strong pattern may be broken, and it is expected that iron ore will continue to weaken with the sector in the short term [2][3] - The external macro - narrative is more positive, there are still expectations for increments in domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage, which support the medium - term valuation of the black series. In the short term, the terminal demand is weakening, the supply of iron ore is steadily rising, the demand is falling from a high level and the short - term strengthening expectation is weak. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance, and short - term iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and the price is expected to follow the sector [3] - The price fluctuates weakly in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (Contract 2601) is in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has continued to maintain a high growth rate. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipment has reached a five - year high, and the shipment level of non - mainstream mines has been higher than that of last year for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than that of last year. With the continuous arrival of shipments, the supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the supply - side support continues to weaken [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has slightly declined, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.13 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62). The profitability rate of steel mills is continuously falling, and the blast furnace profit is approaching the break - even point. With the military parade production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of the short - process steelmaking protects the iron ore demand to some extent, the support of domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ores at steel mills has declined but remains at a high level. The inventory at steel mills has decreased month - on - month due to more overhauls in North China. The port inventory has slightly declined this period. With the current high daily consumption and high pig iron output supporting demand, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not significant [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term futures price of iron ore still has macro and micro support. Although the enthusiasm for chasing high prices of black commodities has declined, the macro - expectations reflected in other major asset sectors are not weak, and the active production of downstream steel mills supports the short - term price of iron ore [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Market Overview - The main 01 contract price of iron ore first rose and then fell this week, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 447,000 lots, an increase of 92,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 258,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 119,000 lots [7] - Imported iron ore spot prices rose slightly week - on - week, with high - grade Carajas fines having a relatively large price increase [12] Supply Side - Global iron ore shipments have been relatively stable recently. There are some differences in shipments between Australia and Brazil. Rio Tinto's shipments are continuously catching up with last year's progress. Among non - mainstream suppliers, shipments from India and Peru are relatively weak, and Ukraine had its first overseas shipment since November last year [5][21][27] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic iron ore mines has increased month - on - month with the recovery in North China [32] Demand Side - The production of hot metal and five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, showing a large increase compared with the same period last year, which supports the immediate demand for iron ore spot (also confirmed by port ore handling volume) [5][34] - Recently, the arrival volume of scrap steel has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the spot price of scrap steel is sticky. This week, it increased slightly month - on - month, while the cost of hot metal increased more. The price difference between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow [35] Inventory Side - The powder ore inventory has been rising continuously, and the destocking trend at ports has slowed down [38][40] Downstream Profit - Behind the high - level operation of steel mills' production, the positive profit of finished steel products is shrinking [42] Price Spread - The price differences between Carajas fines - PB fines and Tangshan iron concentrate - PB fines have both widened recently [45] - The 1 - 5 price spread of the iron ore futures contract has been relatively stable this week [47] - As the maturity date approaches, the basis of the 09 contract is gradually approaching par, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has also slightly shrunk month - on - month, basically the same as the basis amplitude in the same period last year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price, but the supply of iron ore will increase while the demand is weakly stable. Under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will weaken [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level within the year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the resilience of ore demand still exists, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased as expected on a monthly basis, but according to ship schedules, subsequent arrivals are unlikely to decrease. On the contrary, the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, and they are expected to be active in shipping at high ore prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase again [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global iron ore supply is expected to expand with the upcoming production of Simandou Iron Ore in Africa, while emerging economies such as India will drive demand growth. The iron ore price is projected to fluctuate within a reasonable range of $80 - $100 per ton in the next 3 - 5 years under normal circumstances [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Iron Ore Production 1.1 Global Iron Ore Production - Since 2000, global iron ore production increased significantly before 2014 and has remained stable at around 2 billion tons per year since 2015. In 2024, global iron ore production was 2.33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3.6% [11]. 1.2 China's Iron Ore Production - From 2000 - 2013, China's iron ore production increased steadily due to the expansion of small and medium - sized mines. However, since 2014, production has declined due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and competition from imported ores. In 2024, China's iron ore concentrate production was 284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3%. The main production areas are North, Northeast, East, and Southwest China, with North China being the largest, accounting for 34.1% [12][15]. II. Iron Ore Trade 2.1 Global Iron Ore Trade - Before 2015, global iron ore trade volume increased rapidly, and has since remained stable at a high level. In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.711 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Australia and Brazil are the two major exporters, accounting for 76.3% of global exports. In the same year, global iron ore imports reached 1.638 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, with China being the largest importer, accounting for 72% [17][22]. 2.2 China's Iron Ore Trade - Since the 21st century, China has become the world's largest iron ore importer, mainly importing from Australia and Brazil. In 2024, China's iron ore imports reached 1.237 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was about 5% [26][27]. III. Iron Ore Consumption 3.1 Global Iron Ore Consumption - Global iron ore consumption has been growing steadily in the past 15 years. China, India, and Japan are the top three consumers, accounting for 58.9%, 10.3%, and 4.4% of global consumption in 2023 respectively. From 2010 to 2024, global iron ore apparent consumption increased from 1.958 billion tons to 2.437 billion tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.59% [31][33]. 3.2 China's Iron Ore Consumption - Affected by the domestic economic cycle, China's iron ore consumption increased before 2015 and has remained stable at a high level since then. In 2024, China's iron ore apparent consumption was 1.473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was 3.15%. China's iron ore demand is highly dependent on imports, with an import - to - consumption ratio of 86% in 2023. The most demanded iron ore type is sinter ore, followed by pellet ore and lump ore [37][38][43]. IV. China's Iron Ore Industry Competition - From 2003 - 2017, small and medium - sized iron ore producers expanded rapidly. After 2017, due to mine consolidation, many small mines exited the market, and the market share of large key enterprises increased from 18% in 2010 to 39% in 2023 [47]. V. Global Iron Ore Production Cost - Global iron ore production costs vary significantly among different mines. The top four global iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, and FMG) have low production costs and high iron grades. China's iron ore generally has low iron content and variable production costs ranging from 300 - 900 yuan per ton. Iron ore price fluctuations can adjust global supply. When the price is between $80 - $100 per ton, the global shipping volume is about 137 million tons [50][51]. VI. Steel Industry Overview 6.1 Steel Production - Since the 21st century, global pig iron and crude steel production have grown rapidly, with the growth rate slowing down after 2015. In 2024, global pig iron and crude steel production were 1.421 billion tons and 1.934 billion tons respectively. China is the world's largest steel producer, with pig iron and crude steel production of 893 million tons and 1.099 billion tons respectively in 2024, accounting for 62.9% and 56.8% of the global total. The main production areas in China are Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [53]. 6.2 Steel Consumption - In 2024, global crude steel consumption was 1.938 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's crude steel consumption was 989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, accounting for 51.03% of the global total. Consumption outside China was 947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Since the implementation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate sector in 2021, China's steel consumption structure has changed significantly, with a sharp decline in real - estate steel demand and an increase in export and manufacturing demand [61]. VII. Iron Ore Price Performance - Iron ore prices fluctuate with supply and demand. After the 2008 global financial crisis, prices rose rapidly due to strong demand from emerging economies and insufficient global supply. From 2011 - 2015, prices fell due to over - supply and weakening Chinese demand. After 2016, prices were volatile at a low level due to steel industry reforms. After the Vale dam collapse and post - COVID - 19 recovery, prices reached a record high. Since 2021, prices have been under pressure due to China's crude steel production cuts and real - estate policies. In 2025, the supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is currently fluctuating around $100 per ton [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic macro expectation has increased, the market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range and run strongly. The later focus is on whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the policy increment of the Political Bureau meeting [3] 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the escalation and easing of geopolitical tensions. The black series fluctuated narrowly, and the iron ore price followed the trend, with coking coal performing strongly. The demand for finished products continued the off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing stronger than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal incremental characteristics, and the carbon element continued to give way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit was relatively considerable, and the domestic iron ore demand remained at a relatively high level, supporting the iron ore price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures was relatively stable [3] Supply - Last Monday, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia to China and the total Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. The arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month. Overall, June is the peak season for overseas iron ore shipments. It is expected that the overseas shipments will steadily recover, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly. The support from the supply side will weaken marginally. The later focus is on the investment of non - mainstream mines [3] Demand - The domestic hot metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average hot metal production is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). With the high profitability of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term iron ore demand will be tough and support the price [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - going shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills has been rising month - on - month, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on demand. Due to the decrease in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3] Price - The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to view the price as "oscillating weakly" and take a bearish stance [2]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic macro - expectation is weak, the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The demand maintains a downward trend but stays at a relatively high level, and the supply side has a strong expectation of incremental growth. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will oscillate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the iron ore price followed. The demand for finished products shows off - season characteristics but no inventory accumulation. The supply of iron ore has a seasonal increase, and the profit of blast furnaces is relatively good. Domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which supports the iron ore price [2]. Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. In June, it is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. With the fiscal year end volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic hot - metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The current daily average hot - metal output is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). The current profit rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is relatively good. With the full - depth losses of short - process steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is resilient, and high demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - floating shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on - demand due to weak demand expectations. Due to the decline in arrivals and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak due to high demand [2]. Price - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly and should be treated bearishly [2].