Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure, with the price likely to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line and the change in hot metal [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel mills increase maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption with further decline potential. Although port arrivals and miners' shipments have decreased, overseas ore is still at a high level due to miners' end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Based on shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals are expected to increase, and domestic ore supply is weakly stable. The supply of ore has remained high recently. The supply - demand pattern has not improved, and the futures price discount is being repaired. Therefore, the ore price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures contract 2509 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The bullish sentiment dominates, leading to a slightly bullish oscillation of ore prices [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the futures price is deeply at a discount, and the market sentiment has warmed up, so the downward resistance of ore prices is large. In the short - term, the ore prices will continue the trend of oscillating higher, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly bullish. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment dominates, causing the ore prices to oscillate strongly. The support level of MA5 should be focused on [1]. Market Driving Logic - Macro - level positive news reappears, and the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to the stabilization of ore prices. The demand for iron ore continues to decline, but the decline is limited and remains at a high level within the year. During the off - season, the steel mill production weakens, and the demand - side positive effect is not strong [2]. - Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments have both increased. With the expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush, the overseas ore supply remains at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output has decreased, the decrease is not sustainable. Overall, the iron ore supply is increasing [2]. - Currently, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak - stable situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the deep discount of the futures price and the warming market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. In the short - term, the bullish atmosphere dominates, and the ore prices will continue to oscillate higher. The performance of finished steel products should be observed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: This week, the iron ore futures market oscillated. By Friday's close, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 699 yuan/ton, a 1.27% decline from last week. The spot market fluctuated with the futures. The 62% Platts Index dropped to $98.95/ton, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 761 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply**: The latest Mysteel data shows that the global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2.9255 million tons, a 17,800 - ton increase from the previous period. Australia's shipment volume increased significantly, while Brazil's decreased. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.3253 million tons, a 200,200 - ton decrease [4] - **Demand**: Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills found that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and a 4.60% increase year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a 1.45% increase from the previous period and a 6.07% increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 6.93% increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 244,350 tons, a 4,230 - ton increase from the previous period and a 15,630 - ton increase year - on - year [4] - **Inventory**: Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 14.261 million tons, a 205,000 - ton increase from the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327,920 tons, an 18,410 - ton increase [5] - **Overall Situation**: Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5] 3. Strategy Summary - Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5]