1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment may partially ebb. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the fundamentals and macro - logic of nickel may fluctuate. This week, the ore price declined slightly month - on - month, and the cost support for nickel is weak. Attention should still be paid to the policy guidance from Indonesia, such as the APNI Association's hope to re - evaluate the nickel ore pricing formula [3][4]. - The stainless steel market has improved somewhat, but it is still in the off - season, with limited overall demand release and insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, the supply remains high, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. Stainless steel may maintain a range - bound trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were $29, $58, and $79.5 per wet ton respectively, down $1, $0.5, and $1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 25, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia were $25 and $52.1 per wet ton respectively, down $0 and $0.1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was $912 per nickel point, up $10.5 or 1.16% from last week [3][28]. - As of July 28, the FOB price of MHP was $12,716 per ton, up $407 or 3.30% from last week; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte was $13,281 per ton, up $392 or 3.03% from last week [38]. - As of July 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was $123,200 per ton, up $350 or 0.28% from last week [16]. - As of July 28, the price of Jinchuan nickel was $124,250 per ton, up $400 or 0.32% from last week; the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by $150 to $2,150 per ton [17]. - As of July 28, the price of imported nickel was $122,500 per ton, up $300 or 0.25% from last week; the premium of imported nickel increased by $50 to $400 per ton [17]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of June 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [3][73]. - As of June 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.26% [73]. - As of July 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%; high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the monthly MHP import volume was 12.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.21%; the monthly high - grade nickel matte import volume was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [38]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 32 million tons to 747 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [34]. - As of July 28, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons to 2.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38 million tons to 20.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 57 tons to 4.03 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% [3][47]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation was $12,900 per ton, unchanged from last week [84]. - As of July 25, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel coils decreased by $97 per ton to $13,076 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the profit margin increased by 1.41 percentage points to - 4.42% [94]. - **Supply and Demand**: - As of June 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% [3][90]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.51% [90]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the stainless steel market inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 111.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [3][86]. - As of July 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 303 tons to 10.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29% [86]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows data from January to December 2025, including total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, supply year - on - year, consumption year - on - year, supply cumulative year - on - year, and consumption cumulative year - on - year [4].

Group 1 - The main contract for nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) experienced a decline, closing at 119,380.00 yuan, down 1.15% [1] - Short-term outlook for nickel prices remains volatile, with institutions predicting continued fluctuations [2][3] - LME nickel inventory increased by 402 tons to 206,580 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 854 tons to 21,296 tons [2] Group 2 - The Indonesian government approved a work plan and budget for nickel mining with a projected output of 364 million tons for 2025 [2] - Domestic stainless steel prices have slightly decreased, with major manufacturers lowering their bidding prices to 900 yuan per nickel point [2] - Demand for nickel sulfate in the new energy sector saw a slight month-on-month increase, with production of ternary precursors and materials also rising [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].