【库存】整体买卖氛围趋于平静，贸易商多以交付节前加工订单为主，节前补库需求不足，社会库存转 为小幅累积，仓单近期增加。截至2月6日，无锡和佛山300系社会库存45.86万吨，周环比增加0.09万 吨。2月9日上期所不锈钢期货库存53523吨，周环比增加9705吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面维持窄幅震荡，现货方面节前现货交投一般，市场询单冷清，多以点价资源成 交为主。宏观方面，海外关注后续美联储降息节奏及表态；近期中国人民银行信贷市场工作会议要求建 设多层次金融服务体系，着力支持扩大内需、中小微企业等重点领域。镍矿来看，近期菲律宾矿山招标 价格连续上涨；印尼矿企RKAB配额逐步推进，但通过量级较申请量有所收缩，2月一期镍矿升水上涨 至+28美金附近，叠加基准价格上涨，镍矿价格明显上涨。目前供方高镍生铁报价主要集中在1050元/镍 (舱底含税)附近，市场情绪转冷，前钢厂加大减产力度，谨慎采购原料。节前钢厂加大减产力度，国内 部分钢厂开始停产检修，春节前后300系不锈钢预计影响产量48.5万吨。需求提振不足，传统和新兴板 块分化，施工项目放缓采购乏力、下游企业资金压力凸显，需求端难以承接高价涨幅。节前补库需求不 足， ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. In November, the output of pure nickel dropped sharply by 28.13% month-on-month, and the decline in the previous market fully affected the supply side. Although the nickel price valuation has recovered, it has not regained the previous losses, and the medium - and long - term logic is still constrained by fundamental factors. In the fourth quarter, the rigid cost of the ore end and the uncertainty of the RKAB approval process in Indonesia form double support, limiting the further decline of nickel prices, but the real - world contradictions in downstream demand remain unresolved, and the upward driving force is still weak [3][4]. Summary by Directory Nickel Market Overview - The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2601) opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,080 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 2.66% [10]. - As of December 2, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 119,900 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 1.14% increase [16]. Nickel - related Product Prices - As of December 1, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the ex - works prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained unchanged at 23 and 52.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point to 883 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.90% decrease [29]. - As of December 2, the battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 350 yuan/ton to 27,730 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton [29]. Supply and Demand of Nickel and Related Products Nickel Ore - As of November 28, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 9.51 million wet tons week - on - week, a 0.31% decrease [38]. - In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a 23.41% decrease month - on - month and a 10.97% increase year - on - year. The import volume from the Philippines was 4.3468 million tons, a 25.28% decrease month - on - month [38]. Intermediate Products - As of December 1, the MHP FOB price increased by 148 US dollars/ton to 12,979 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price increased by 151 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase [44]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 3.86 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 5.85% decrease; the high - grade nickel matte output increased by 0.7 million tons to 2.92 million tons month - on - month, a 31.53% increase [44]. Refined Nickel - In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons month - on - month, a 28.13% decrease and a 16.28% decrease year - on - year [52]. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a 3.15% decrease month - on - month and a 0.76% decrease year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a 65.66% decrease month - on - month and a 5.67% decrease year - on - year [52]. - As of December 1, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 17,000 tons to 32,700 tons week - on - week, a 5.13% decrease; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 408 tons to 253,100 tons week - on - week, a 0.16% decrease [53]. Nickel Sulfate - In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.21% increase [66]. - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a 25.32% decrease month - on - month and a 114.15% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, a 31.23% increase month - on - month and a 53.20% decrease year - on - year [66]. Nickel Iron - In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron output (in metal) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons month - on - month, a 3.23% decrease [83]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian nickel pig iron output decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons month - on - month, basically unchanged [83]. - As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons in metal), a 18.40% decrease month - on - month and a 30.31% increase year - on - year [83]. Stainless Steel - In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 54,600 tons to 3.4592 million tons month - on - month, a 1.55% decrease and a 4.24% increase year - on - year [95]. - It is expected that the crude steel production in December will be 3.2857 million tons, a 5.02% decrease month - on - month and a 4.55% decrease year - on - year [95]. - As of November 28, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 14,400 tons to 1.0861 million tons week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [98]. - As of December 2, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 21 yuan/ton to 12,488 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.17% increase [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment may partially ebb. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the fundamentals and macro - logic of nickel may fluctuate. This week, the ore price declined slightly month - on - month, and the cost support for nickel is weak. Attention should still be paid to the policy guidance from Indonesia, such as the APNI Association's hope to re - evaluate the nickel ore pricing formula [3][4]. - The stainless steel market has improved somewhat, but it is still in the off - season, with limited overall demand release and insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, the supply remains high, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. Stainless steel may maintain a range - bound trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were $29, $58, and $79.5 per wet ton respectively, down $1, $0.5, and $1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 25, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia were $25 and $52.1 per wet ton respectively, down $0 and $0.1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was $912 per nickel point, up $10.5 or 1.16% from last week [3][28]. - As of July 28, the FOB price of MHP was $12,716 per ton, up $407 or 3.30% from last week; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte was $13,281 per ton, up $392 or 3.03% from last week [38]. - As of July 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was $123,200 per ton, up $350 or 0.28% from last week [16]. - As of July 28, the price of Jinchuan nickel was $124,250 per ton, up $400 or 0.32% from last week; the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by $150 to $2,150 per ton [17]. - As of July 28, the price of imported nickel was $122,500 per ton, up $300 or 0.25% from last week; the premium of imported nickel increased by $50 to $400 per ton [17]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of June 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [3][73]. - As of June 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.26% [73]. - As of July 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%; high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the monthly MHP import volume was 12.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.21%; the monthly high - grade nickel matte import volume was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [38]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 32 million tons to 747 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [34]. - As of July 28, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons to 2.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38 million tons to 20.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 57 tons to 4.03 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% [3][47]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation was $12,900 per ton, unchanged from last week [84]. - As of July 25, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel coils decreased by $97 per ton to $13,076 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the profit margin increased by 1.41 percentage points to - 4.42% [94]. - **Supply and Demand**: - As of June 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% [3][90]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.51% [90]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the stainless steel market inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 111.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [3][86]. - As of July 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 303 tons to 10.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29% [86]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows data from January to December 2025, including total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, supply year - on - year, consumption year - on - year, supply cumulative year - on - year, and consumption cumulative year - on - year [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]