LOW-VOLUME TODAY. IT IS CHRISTMAS, SO POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THEIR SCREEN. JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS MORE, STEPHANIE ROTH AND MICHAEL BALL.THANK YOU FOR JOINING US IN STUDIO. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO BOTH OF YOU. LET'S GET YOUR REACTION FROM THE CLAIMS NUMBER.STEPHANIE: THE DATA LOOKS SOLID. IT IS TELLING US THE LABOR MARKET IS FAIRLY WELL CONTAINED. LAYOFFS ARE MINIMAL.THERE WAS A BOUNCE BACK IN CONTINUING CLAIMS. IT WAS VOLATILITY AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. CONTINUING CLAIMS IS ST ...

中金研报指出，美国2025年第三季度实际GDP环比折年率升至4.3%，超出市场预期。从分项来看，强 劲的消费支出与AI相关的设备投资需求对增长贡献较大，而传统行业投资（如建筑类与房地产）则持 续表现低迷，显示经济内部"冷热不均"的分化格局加剧。进口连续两个季度下降，表明在年初"抢进 口"过后，企业整体已放慢进口节奏。尽管这份GDP数据较为滞后，但其表现出的韧性或将打压短期内 降息的呼声。中金维持美联储1月将按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 exceeded expectations, with an initial annualized rate of 4.3%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous quarter's final value of 3.8% [4] - Personal consumption expenditures rose from 2.5% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q3, surpassing the expected 2.7% [4] - Exports increased significantly by 8.8%, while imports decreased by 4.7% [4] Industry Insights Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures at $4,515 per ounce (up 1.02%) and silver at $71.61 per ounce (up 4.44%) [7] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the U.S. government [7] Medical Supplies - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been officially launched, including drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables, with bidding set for January 13, 2026 [8] - The introduction of anchor pricing and a multi-repetition mechanism is expected to prevent malicious competition, although significant price declines are anticipated [8] Automotive Industry - Retail data for January-November 2025 shows that major brands like BYD, Volkswagen, and Toyota dominate the market, with the top ten brands holding a combined market share of 51.7% [10] - The competitive landscape remains fragmented, with ongoing price wars likely due to the lack of a dominant market structure [10] - Demand resilience in the battery supply chain is noted, but profitability will depend on product structure and bargaining power [10] Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning industry experienced a significant decline in production and sales in November, with production and sales down approximately 37% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The decline is attributed to high base effects from previous government subsidy policies and abnormal weather conditions [12] - A cautious outlook is maintained for the industry, with production plans for January 2026 indicating a year-on-year increase of about 21% [12]

国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月24日 07:37 上海 【国富期货早间看点】印尼2026年生物燃料配额1564.6万千升 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增242.47万吨 20251224 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4016.00 | 2. 07 | 0. 73 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.54 | 2. 36 | 0. 31 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.95 | 2. 49 | 0. 29 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1064.00 | 0. 42 | 0. 07 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 301. 70 | 0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.08 | 1.49 | 0. 86 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 29 | -0. 42 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0572 ...

三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.9%，精准契合市场预期，较前值2.6%的小幅上升，当前通胀水 平仍处于可控范围。 现货黄金价格在数据发布后呈现持续回落态势，日内此前积累的涨幅被不断收窄，而美元指数则顺势反 弹，逐步攀升至当日高点附近。市场预期的变化更为显著，截至发稿时，投资者已明显下调对美联储明年 降息的押注力度，据市场测算，美联储在明年1月28日货币政策会议上实施降息的概率已降至17%左右。 尽管三季度经济增长表现强劲，且此前已形成阶段性增长势头，但多数经济学家对四季度经济走势的预判 较为悲观，普遍认为四季度经济增长将陷入乏力状态，甚至可能出现停滞。究其原因，核心症结在于始于 10月1日的43天政府停摆事件，这一事件对政府支出、企业投资和居民消费均产生了显著的冲击，不仅直 接抑制了短期经济活动，也对市场信心造成了负面影响，进而拖累四季度经济增长动能。 周二，美国经济分析局发布的三季度经济数据显示核心经济指标均超出市场预期，创下两年来最快扩张速 度。不过，多数经济学家对此持谨慎态度，普遍预警当前的高增长难以持续，后续经济下行压力不容忽 视。 美国三季度实际GDP年化季率初值达到4.3%，大幅高于3. ...

For more, let's bring in Joe Leavia, counselor to the secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Would you do you agree with that sentiment.>> I do. I mean, the thing is the GDP numbers, which we could get into, were fantastic, was all private sector led, but what struck me, Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interests sectors of the economy such as structures and residential. Structures, which are factories, by the way, they'll get a huge lift with the tax bill.uh 2026 shou ...

For more, let's bring in Joe Leavia, counselor to the secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Would you do you agree with that sentiment.>> I do. I mean, the thing is the GDP numbers, which we could get into, were fantastic, was all private sector led, but what struck me, Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interests sectors of the economy such as structures and residential. Structures, which are factories, by the way, they'll get a huge lift with the tax bill.uh 2026 shou ...

Joe, always good to see you. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Thank you.Very good to be with you, Jennifer. Happy holidays. >> Happy holidays to you.And what a way to kick off the holidays with such a stellar third quarter GDP number up 4.3% a full percentage point above expectations and driven by consumer spending up three and a half% though a large chunk of that from healthcare spending. Though we also saw trade really add to this number as well. Joe, can we see this level of growth sustained into next y ...

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Headline though, GDP much stronger than expected, 4-3, highest read since Q3 of 2023. You know, Josh, I I wonder what this does to the thinking on rates. Torstston at Apollo says long-term interest rates will remain higher for longer.Investors should plan accordingly. Deutsche Bank today ratchet higher for yields is a significant story. I mean, we've been talking about and gaming out and planning for a rate cut in early 26.What if the Fed takes a hawkish tilt. I mean, do investors need to rethink this whole ...