Economic Outlook - GDP growth expectations for Q4 are projected at 1%, with Q1 at 1.3% [2] - Earnings growth expectations for Q4 are flat quarter over quarter, with eight of the eleven S&P sectors expected to show sequential negative earnings growth [2][4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see sequential positive earnings growth due to seasonal factors, while most other sectors are anticipated to post negative earnings growth [4] - There has been a noticeable shift in investor sentiment regarding the labor market, AI bubble, and private credit concerns over the past few weeks [6][7] Investment Sentiment - Investor positioning has shifted from being underinvested and ready to buy dips to expressing significant concerns about market risks [6] - The potential cliff event for AI capital expenditures is anticipated between 2026 and 2027, suggesting a borrowing of growth into 2026 that may impact future growth [9]

什么最能体现一个国家的生产力？那就是这个国家的能源的消耗。咱们以发电量来作为一个对比，从2019年到2024年，咱们国家的发电量增幅的幅度为 42%，已经达到了惊人的10.1万亿度。美国的增幅不过才4.9%，发电量勉强涨到了4.3万亿度。一个国家的需求决定了发电量涨幅的高低，从这里可以看 出，美国的实体经济相当疲软。 中国真实的GDP其实早已超越美国，只不过原来咱们国家所使用的一直是自己的计算方法。毕竟，按照美国的支出算法来计算，其中的水分太多，对于一个 发展中国家而言，还是稳扎稳打才能更有利于未来的发展。这可是妥妥的中国经验，美国与咱们相比，还是逊色不少，不信咱们来好好地对比一下...... 诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗・克鲁格曼曾公开批评美国，其认为美国的经济出现了严重的问题，不过是依赖统计学的技巧，利用金融等手段，营造出的虚假繁 荣场面，根本没有与之相配套的生产能力。当然，咱们也得实事求是，美国的虚拟经济的确非常了不得，在GDP当中，其知识产权贡献率达到了41%，这证 明美国当前仍旧保持着一定的创新活力。 除此之外，其金融交易的贡献率为12.7%，而医疗支出的贡献率则为17.6%。单纯从这一占比来看，我们看不 ...

高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉降中国2026与2027年GDP预期分别从4.3%和4.0%上调至4.8%与4.7%（2019年以来最大幅度的预期上调），理由是出口韧性强、中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及“十五五”规划带来的政策动力增强。闪辉表示，此次习特会表明，中国现在在贸易谈判中拥有了重要的筹码，尤其是在控制稀土出口方面，美国可能更难进一步加征关税。高盛还援引了中国近期召开的四中全会和“十五五”规划的成果，这些成果强调技术自主和产业竞争力。政策制定者旨在加大对高科技制造业和创新的投入，以此作为经济增长的驱动力，取代对房地产和基础设施的依赖。尽管这一战略可能迅速提振出口和企业利润，但闪辉警告称，提振家庭消费可能需要更长时间。高盛还指出，AI崛起有望在未来十年内将中国的长期增长潜力提升高达8%，从而有助于抵消人口结构和结构性不利因素。 ...

此前美国国家经济委员会主任哈赛特称，如果政府继续停摆，美国第四季GDP可能出现负增长。美国政府停摆对经济的影响远比预期严重，但一旦停摆结束，经济可能会迅速反弹。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance of various cities in China during the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting GDP growth rates and the emergence of new economic powerhouses among both traditional and non-traditional cities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Major Cities - Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are leading in GDP growth, supported by high-tech industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles [2][3]. - Guangzhou's economy is stabilizing with significant improvements in industrial output and foreign trade, which increased by 12.5% [2]. - Ningbo has surpassed Tianjin in GDP, while Qingdao is closing in on Tianjin, indicating a potential shift in economic rankings among northern cities [3]. Group 2: Emerging Cities and Economic Clubs - The number of trillion-yuan GDP cities is expected to increase, with cities like Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian vying for entry into the trillion-yuan club [11][12]. - Wenzhou has shown consistent GDP growth exceeding 6% for ten consecutive quarters, driven by industrial contributions, particularly in electronics and automotive manufacturing [15]. - Xuzhou is recognized for its engineering machinery industry, benefiting from major domestic and international projects, while Dalian's strengths lie in its port and shipping capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: Non-Capital City Dynamics - The competition for the title of the leading non-capital city in Central and Western China is intensifying, with cities like Luoyang, Xiangyang, and Yichang emerging as contenders [20][21]. - Yichang has the highest GDP growth rate among the top 50 cities, driven by industrial diversification and emerging sectors like lithium batteries and biomedicine [22]. - The success of non-capital cities heavily relies on their industrial base and the development of new industries, as they lack the administrative advantages of capital cities [23][24].

Core Insights - The current job market is showing signs of weakness, potentially nearing the worst conditions in 50 years outside of a recession [1][2] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, with job openings and hiring trends continuing to decline [4][5] - The GDP is projected to be around 3.6% for the current quarter, but labor market indicators are deemed more reliable for assessing economic health [8][9] Employment Trends - Confidence numbers indicate a low expected change in the unemployment rate, typically seen only during recessions [3] - Layoff notices and announcements are increasing, raising concerns about future employment stability [7] - Current employment growth metrics suggest a stagnation rather than improvement, with weak job openings and hiring [6] Economic Indicators - GDP growth appears strong at 3.6%, but is influenced by inventory changes and front-loading effects [8] - Labor market data is prioritized over GDP figures for a clearer picture of economic conditions [9] - Inflation numbers are generally positive, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December despite uncertainties [15] Technology Impact - There is speculation that technology, particularly AI, may be impacting the labor market more quickly than previously anticipated, although current trends are largely attributed to post-pandemic conditions [11][12]

Group 1 - Three cities in China are expected to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan this year, namely Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian, following the release of the third-quarter GDP data [2] - Wuxi achieved a GDP of 11,885.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [2] Group 2 - Elon Musk's compensation plan includes 12 tranches of stock, potentially increasing his ownership in Tesla from approximately 13% to 25% if all performance targets are met [3] - Tesla's current market value is around 1.5 trillion dollars, and Musk can unlock stock options if the company's valuation reaches 2 trillion dollars and sales hit 11.5 million vehicles [3] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will bring economic benefits to member regions and globally [5] - The Ministry is analyzing the macroeconomic impact of China's potential membership, indicating a win-win scenario for all parties involved [5] Group 4 - The National Medical Insurance Administration is launching a pilot program for intelligent review processes in medical insurance, integrating AI technology to enhance efficiency [6] - The initiative aims to standardize review processes across regions by developing a universal knowledge and rules database [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association is emphasizing the implementation of new tax policies related to gold, urging members to comply with regulations and improve product quality [7] - The association aims to ensure stable market development while adhering to the new tax guidelines [7] Group 6 - Shenzhen is promoting collaboration between the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and major exchanges in countries where sovereign funds are based, aiming to enhance cross-border investment mechanisms [8] - The initiative includes support for sovereign funds to establish offices in Shenzhen and participate in local investment trials [8] Group 7 - The Ordos Municipal Health Commission announced a new child-rearing subsidy policy, providing an annual subsidy of 10,000 yuan for families with a third child, exceeding the national standard [9] - The policy aims to encourage higher birth rates by offering financial support to families [9] Group 8 - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital, marking the first time the company has relinquished control of its core business in China [25] - The joint venture will see Boyu holding up to 60% of the new entity, reflecting the competitive landscape and strategic challenges faced by international coffee brands in the Chinese market [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing signs of recovery while others remain weak. Industrial Production Tracking - The operating rate of blast furnaces has significantly declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% to 81.7%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.3 percentage points [2][6] - Steel apparent consumption has increased by 2.7% week-on-week and returned to positive territory year-on-year, up 2.9 percentage points to 2.8% [2][8] - Social inventory continues to decline, down 2.1% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand have shown slight improvement but remain weaker than the same period last year, with a grinding operating rate up 1% to 46.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [24][25] - Cement shipment rates increased by 0.8% week-on-week but are down 8.8% year-on-year [24][28] - The cement inventory ratio continues to rise, up 2.3% week-on-week [24][31] Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with a week-on-week drop of 11.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 percentage points to -25% [47][48] - The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities has seen significant declines, particularly in first-tier cities, which experienced a year-on-year drop of 20.1 percentage points [47][51] - Port cargo throughput has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [57][64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed performance, with vegetable prices rising by 8.1% week-on-week, while pork and egg prices have decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively [99][100] - The overall industrial product prices are on the rise, with the South China Industrial Product Price Index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week [111][112]

RT Bloomberg Live (@BloombergLive)Minister @Haddad_Fernando on the development of Brazil: "Forecasts estimate a 12% impact on our GDP,"⏯️ https://t.co/jngaNSvQYo https://t.co/zk27slgtS6 ...

Learn which countries are among the top 25 economies in the world. The United States has had the largest GDP for over a century, but China's has grown rapidly. https://t.co/6LWcBUZedv ...