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供应端复产叠加下游降负 PTA或逐步转向累库格局
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-17 00:25
Group 1 - PTA prices have slightly decreased since mid-May due to weakening fundamentals, characterized by supply recovery and reduced downstream polyester production [2] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with risks of losing 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil supply [3] - The supply side of PTA has seen a notable recovery in operating rates, reaching approximately 83% as of June 13, indicating a clear trend of increasing supply [4] Group 2 - Demand for PTA is currently weak, with polyester production rates declining to around 90.9%, primarily due to reduced output in bottle-grade and short-fiber segments [4] - The weaving sector is also facing challenges, with weaving operating rates dropping to 68% and texturing rates to 80%, as companies deal with high raw material costs and sluggish sales [4] - Overall, while oil prices are strong and may push PTA prices up, the weakening fundamentals suggest limited price increases, with a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation [5]
外贸订单气氛略有下降 压制PTA期价反弹空间
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-26 06:22
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to maintenance and inventory reduction, leading to a short-term bullish outlook for PTA prices, although medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of May 23, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 56,566 PTA futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 994 from the previous trading day [1]. - Last week, PTA social inventory was at 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons, continuing a downward trend since March [1]. - The PTA industry operating rate increased to 77.1% due to the restart and short maintenance of some facilities [1]. Group 2: Price and Trading Activity - The spot market for PTA showed a general trading atmosphere, with spot basis strengthening. Transactions for May were reported around 4,840 to 4,905, with Ningbo goods trading at 4,835 to 4,840 [1]. - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+151 [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the PTA market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to cost support and inventory reduction, but medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are likely to limit price rebounds [2]. - Hualian Futures noted that supply is expected to see slight increases with the restart of certain facilities, while demand remains stable. However, foreign trade orders have slightly decreased [3].