Core Viewpoint - The PTA market experienced fluctuations on August 6, influenced by multiple factors including a reduction in production by INEOS and a recovery in commodity sentiment, leading to a rapid rise in PTA futures followed by a volatile increase in prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 6, the PTA futures market saw a quick rise and subsequent fluctuations due to positive market sentiment and production cuts by INEOS [1] - The spot market showed a favorable trading atmosphere with a weak basis, and some polyester factories placed orders [1] - Main suppliers sold August cargoes with varying transaction discounts, with price negotiations ranging between 4650 - 4720 [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - As of August 1, PTA operating rates decreased to 72.6%, while polyester operating rates slightly fell to around 88.1% [1] - The PTA processing fee reached approximately 130 CNY/ton, while the TA2509 futures processing fee was 274 CNY/ton [1] - The low processing fees have led to increased maintenance of PTA facilities in August, alongside production cuts by INEOS and a rebound in oil prices supporting market conditions [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite improvements in supply and demand in August, the commissioning of a new facility by Helun Petrochemical and weak terminal orders suggest a pessimistic medium-term supply-demand outlook [1] - The short-term PTA market may be affected by weak supply-demand expectations and a significant drop in overnight oil prices, although domestic commodity sentiment provides some support [1] - PTA futures are expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800, with strategies to hedge against high prices and low processing fees being considered [1]

Market Overview - On August 6, the market was boosted by the news of INEOS reducing production, alongside a recovery in commodity sentiment, leading to a rapid increase in PTA futures prices, which ultimately closed with gains [1] - The trading atmosphere in the spot market was relatively positive, with a weak basis for spot prices and limited offers from polyester factories [1] Pricing and Supply - Main suppliers offered August cargoes, with transactions for early August at a discount of 20-25 against September futures, and later in August at a discount of 15-20, with price discussions around 4650-4720 [1] - As of August 1, PTA operating rates decreased to 72.6%, down by 7.3%, while polyester operating rates slightly fell to 88.1%, down by 0.6% [3] Profitability - As of August 6, the PTA spot processing fee was around 130 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 274 yuan/ton [2] Demand and Inventory - On August 6, the price of polyester staple fiber remained stable, with local sales volume increasing, and current inventory levels at fiber factories were manageable [3] - The terminal operating rates are expected to remain steady as the market awaits the peak season in September and October [3] Future Outlook - Despite a better-than-expected supply-demand situation for PTA in August, the market outlook remains weak due to the upcoming commissioning of new PTA facilities and continued weak demand for new orders [4] - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has improved, providing some short-term support, but the PTA market is expected to face downward pressure from weak supply-demand expectations and recent declines in oil prices [4] - Short-term price range for PTA is anticipated to be between 4600-4800, with low processing fees suggesting potential for expansion [4]

Supply and Demand - As of July 18, PTA operating rates remain stable at 79.7% with no significant changes in production [3] - Polyester operating rates have slightly decreased to approximately 88.3%, down by 0.5% [3] - Demand for polyester continues to be weak due to the off-season and high temperatures, leading to increased inventory pressure in factories [3] - The cash flow for polyester yarn is limited, with only POY showing slight profitability while FDY is experiencing overall losses [3] Market Outlook - PTA operating rates are maintained around 80%, with expectations for new PTA production from Sanfangxiang (600370) [4] - Weak terminal demand is leading to further expectations of production cuts in downstream polyester [4] - Despite weak supply and demand expectations for PTA, the overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market is relatively strong, providing some support for PTA prices [4] - Short-term trading strategy for TA is expected to fluctuate between 4600-4800, with bearish sentiment above 4800 [4] Cost Analysis - As of July 21, PTA spot processing fees are around 239 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 285 CNY/ton [2]

Market Overview - The PTA spot market showed improved trading sentiment compared to the previous day, with increased bids from polyester factories and a continued weak basis, leading to an expanded decline in the afternoon [1] - Main suppliers reported sales, with transactions this week and next week in the range of 4780 to 4820 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot basis is at 09+91 [1] - As of July 8, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had 45,812 PTA futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 9,384 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory and Supply Chain - This week, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from last week and 0.29 days from the same period last year [1] - Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.1 days, down 0.35 days from last week and 1.08 days from the same period last year [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that while the PTA basis continues to weaken, there has been a partial recovery in transactions, with liquidity issues easing significantly [2] - The port inventory has increased, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts and increased factory stocking, the upward impact of spot prices on the futures market has become limited [2] - Dadi Futures indicated that the polyester industry chain remains stable upstream, while expectations of declining downstream loads suggest profits will further shift downstream [2] - The oil price remains strong, and with downstream production cuts, the strategy of shorting PX/PTA based on Brent price differentials continues, although the potential for significant movement is limited [2] - As the peak season approaches in late August, there may be opportunities for PTA large manufacturers to adjust loads to expand profits, with current PTA processing fees being neutral [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For PTA, the near - end supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 fell, inventory remained stable, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas had unexpected shutdowns, PXN strengthened, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved. Downstream profits improved, and the further compression space of TA processing fees was limited. The absolute price was expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies did not decrease and domestic production start - up increased, it would gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and not low valuation, it was expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [5]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end production reduction and maintenance led to a decline in the start - up rate to 93.8%, sales weakened, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, and benefits slightly improved. Exports maintained a high growth rate. There were also production reduction plans in the future, but the implementation of the plans needed further follow - up. Processing fees were expected to remain weak [5]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, but there was no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, PTA spot price was 6990, PX CFR was 77.17, etc. The average daily basis of spot transactions for 2509 was +167 [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased its load for 3.6 million tons, Shandong Weilian shut down for maintenance for 2.5 million tons, and Hengli Dalian restarted for 2.2 million tons [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, MEG outer - market price was 850, inner - market price was 4328, etc. The basis for 09 was around +68 [5]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line was under maintenance [5]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, the spot price was around 6752, and the market basis for 08 was around +100 [5]. - **Device Changes**: Zhuocheng reduced production, and Jixing shut down for maintenance, with the start - up rate dropping to 93.8% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.0, the price of Thai glue was 1725, etc. [5] - **Main Contradictions**: National explicit inventory remained stable at a low level, Thai cup rubber price rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5] Benzene and Its Derivatives - **Price and Index Data**: On July 1, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, pure benzene (CFR China) was 739, etc. [9] - **Profit Data**: On July 1, 2025, PS domestic profit was - 249, ABS domestic profit was - 926, etc. [9]

Group 1 - PTA prices have slightly decreased since mid-May due to weakening fundamentals, characterized by supply recovery and reduced downstream polyester production [2] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with risks of losing 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil supply [3] - The supply side of PTA has seen a notable recovery in operating rates, reaching approximately 83% as of June 13, indicating a clear trend of increasing supply [4] Group 2 - Demand for PTA is currently weak, with polyester production rates declining to around 90.9%, primarily due to reduced output in bottle-grade and short-fiber segments [4] - The weaving sector is also facing challenges, with weaving operating rates dropping to 68% and texturing rates to 80%, as companies deal with high raw material costs and sluggish sales [4] - Overall, while oil prices are strong and may push PTA prices up, the weakening fundamentals suggest limited price increases, with a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation [5]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to maintenance and inventory reduction, leading to a short-term bullish outlook for PTA prices, although medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of May 23, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 56,566 PTA futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 994 from the previous trading day [1]. - Last week, PTA social inventory was at 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons, continuing a downward trend since March [1]. - The PTA industry operating rate increased to 77.1% due to the restart and short maintenance of some facilities [1]. Group 2: Price and Trading Activity - The spot market for PTA showed a general trading atmosphere, with spot basis strengthening. Transactions for May were reported around 4,840 to 4,905, with Ningbo goods trading at 4,835 to 4,840 [1]. - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+151 [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the PTA market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to cost support and inventory reduction, but medium-term pressures from new capacity and reduced downstream production are likely to limit price rebounds [2]. - Hualian Futures noted that supply is expected to see slight increases with the restart of certain facilities, while demand remains stable. However, foreign trade orders have slightly decreased [3].