澳新银行：澳大利亚住房贷款的可变 利率将降低0.25%。 ...

商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 贵金属基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、特朗普分别与俄乌元首通话，普京称愿与乌方共同起草和平备忘录；泽连斯基称愿与俄签署和平 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 20 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 754.14 | 0.58% | 758.02 | 0.97% | | | 黄金T+D | 754.09 | 0.95% | 753.05 | 0.34% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3220.90 | 0.56% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3 ...

5月20日，工商银行、建设银行、中国银行、农业银行、交通银行、邮储银行六家国有大行及股份行中的招商银行均 于官网发布关于调整人民币存款挂牌利率的公告，自2025年5月20日起调整人民币存款挂牌利率。 其中，六大行及招商银行活期存款利率均由0.1%调整为0.05%，下调5个基点。工商银行、建设银行、中国银行、农业 银行、交通银行及招商银行整存整取定期存款三个月、六个月、一年期、二年期均由0.8%、1%、1.1%、1.2%调整为 0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%，均下调15个基点，三年期、五年期由1.5%、1.55%调整为1.25%、1.30%，均下调25个 基点。 邮储银行六个月、一年期整存整取挂牌利率与其他五大行不同，分别由1.01%、1.13%降至0.86%、0.98%，零存整取、 整存零取、存本取息三年、五年期也由1.01%调整为0.86%，均下调了15个基点，其他各期限存款利率及调整幅度均与 另外五家大行保持一致。 （工商银行、建设银行、中国银行、农业银行、交通银行、邮储银行、招商银行官网） 另外，零存整取、整存零取、存本取息一年、三年、五年期均由0.8%、1%、1%调整为0.65%、0. ...

金十数据5月20日讯，5月8日，个人住房公积金贷款利率再迎下调，幅度为0.25个百分点。在政策利好 释放后，购房者对于存量房贷利率的调整讨论纷纷，一位网名为"微笑青春"的网友表达了自己的困 惑："商贷都可以选择3个月调整1次，为什么公积金贷款利率不可以3个月调整1次？非得等到来年的1月 1日才调整？"实际上，二者在利率调整机制上的差异，与它们的市场定位、定价依据以及运作模式有很 大关系。个人住房公积金贷款具有更强的政策保障性，其利率水平要明显低于商业性住房贷款利率，这 为购房者提供了一种低成本购房的途径，对于保障居民特别是低收入群体的基本住房需求具有重大意 义。从这一视角来看，如果公积金贷款利率调整过于频繁，可能会削弱其保障性、福利性的功能，反而 会给缴存人带来一些不必要的麻烦与负担。 （金融时报） 存量住房公积金贷款利率 为何要等明年才调整？ ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary expressing skepticism towards Moody's, labeling it as a "lagging indicator" [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that tariff discussions are focused on 18 key partnerships, warning that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2 if negotiations are not sincere [1] - Exports from the EU to the U.S. surged by 59% ahead of Trump's "liberation day," resulting in a record trade surplus [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's president reported constructive discussions with the U.S. regarding foreign exchange issues, asserting that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator [1] - ECB Governing Council member Villeroy hinted at the possibility of lowering interest rates below 2%, indicating no reason for a further 50 basis point cut in the foreseeable future [1] - ECB Chief Economist Lane announced that an updated strategy will be released in the second half of the year, incorporating U.S. tariff uncertainties into June's forecasts [1] Group 3 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Shinichi, indicated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, further interest rate hikes will continue [1] - Canadian Finance Minister noted that most tariffs on the U.S. remain in place [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（5月16日）震荡收跌，开盘价3219.78美元/盎司，最高价3252.11美元/盎司，最低价3154.20美元/ 盎司，收盘价3183.50美元/盎司。 消息面： 特朗普表示，印度已提出削减对美国商品的所有关税，但他淡化了与世界第四大经济体达成贸易协议的紧迫 感。特朗普在接受采访时，把印度当作要削减壁垒的例子。"他们让人几乎无法做生意。你知道他们愿意为美 国削减100%的关税吗？"特朗普说。但在达成协议的可能性上，特朗普发出了不同的信号，他说："很快就会 达成。我不着急。听着，每个人都想和我们做交易。"他补充说，他不打算"与所有人达成协议"。特朗普此番 言论表明，美国只会就许多国家将面临的关税做出单方面决定。星期五早些时候，特朗普表示，他计划在"未 来两到三周内"为贸易伙伴设定新的进口税率。 美国财政部长贝森特周日表示，若各国在 90 天关税暂停期内未达成贸易协议，关税税率将很快恢复至 "对等" 水平。"特朗普总统已警告他们，若不以诚意谈判，关税将回升至 4 月 2 日的水平。" 贝森特在 节目中称。贝 森特透露，美国正重点与 18 个 "重要" 贸易伙伴敲定协议，但未说明关税恢复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the minimum interest rate for first-time personal housing loans in Xiamen indicates a trend of rising mortgage rates in various cities, reflecting changes in the lending environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - Xiamen's minimum interest rate for first-time housing loans has been adjusted from LPR-50BP to LPR-45BP, resulting in an increase from 3.10% to 3.15% based on the current LPR rate [1] - This adjustment took effect starting May 17 [1] - Similar adjustments have been reported in other cities, such as Guangzhou, where several banks have changed their rates from LPR-60BP to LPR-50BP [1]

Core Insights - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with Shanghai gold and silver prices rising by 0.88% and 0.61% respectively, while international precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold and silver dropping by 0.90% and 0.98% respectively [1][2] Price Movements - As of May 16, 2025, the main contracts for precious metals showed the following prices: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 747.80 CNY/gram, peaked at 759.20 CNY/gram, and hit a low of 746.44 CNY/gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 8054.00 CNY/kg, peaked at 8165.00 CNY/kg, and hit a low of 8052.00 CNY/kg [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3243.50 USD/ounce, peaked at 3255.80 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 3209.20 USD/ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 32.80 USD/ounce, peaked at 32.87 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 32.45 USD/ounce [2] Market Sentiment - Tanglewood Total Wealth Management's macro investment strategist indicated that the Trump administration appears to be leaning towards weakening the dollar to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, which could potentially benefit gold prices [3] - The dollar weakened during trading, with reports suggesting discussions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding monetary policy, hinting at a potential softening of the dollar [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to reassure market participants that the U.S. is not seeking a weaker dollar, while trade representatives are not planning to include currency commitments in future trade agreements [3] Market Analysis - On May 15, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.74% to 3243.90 USD/ounce, with the latest CME "FedWatch" data indicating a 91.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probabilities for maintaining rates in July stand at 63.2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 34.2% and a 50 basis point cut at 2.6% [4]

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

Core Insights - The average mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers in China have decreased, with the national average at 3.10% in April 2025, down 52 basis points year-on-year [1][3] - The average mortgage rate for second homes is 3.21%, a decrease of 98 basis points year-on-year [1][3] - Most cities have stable mortgage rates, with notable exceptions like Shenyang, where the second home mortgage rate increased by 10 basis points to 3.30% [1][2] Mortgage Rate Trends - The majority of cities have first home mortgage rates between 2.99% and 3.00%, with Guangzhou and Foshan having the lowest rates at 2.99% [2][4] - For second homes, 28 cities have rates between 3.00% and 3.20%, with several cities like Zhengzhou and Foshan at the lowest rate of 3.00% [2][4] - The highest second home mortgage rate is in Hohhot at 3.80% [2] Future Outlook - The mortgage rates are expected to continue declining due to policy adjustments, with commercial mortgage rates likely approaching 3% [7][8] - The People's Bank of China is set to lower housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points starting May 8, 2025, which may further influence mortgage rates [7][8] - The overall market sentiment remains low, with a need for reduced mortgage rates to stimulate demand [7][8]