Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have declined to their lowest levels in over a week due to reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,062.20 per ounce, marking the fourth consecutive day of declines and the lowest price since November 10 [1]. - The probability of a quarter-point interest rate cut next month has decreased to 52.6%, down from 93.7% a month ago [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fed Commentary - Market participants are adjusting their expectations for US interest rate cuts following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials [2]. - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for a cautious approach to further rate cuts, which has unsettled investors seeking lower interest rates [4][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve officials lacked access to critical government data during the recent shutdown, which is essential for their interest rate decision-making [3]. - Upcoming releases of Fed minutes and the delayed September jobs report are anticipated to provide significant insights into the US economy's health [3]. Group 4: Gold's Performance and Influencing Factors - Despite recent declines, gold has gained over 50% this year, positioning it for its best performance since 1979, driven by factors such as inflation concerns and central bank buying [6][7]. - The US economy is showing signs of cooling, which is expected to lead to falling interest rates and a weaker US dollar, creating a favorable long-term outlook for gold [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is weak, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December due to improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,079.90 per ounce on Thursday, down 0.1% from Wednesday’s close of $4,082.80. Gold has not opened above $4,100 since Nov. 14. The Federal Reserve committee that sets interest rates released minutes from its October meeting on Wednesday. The notes confirm policymakers had “strongly differing views” on the appropriate rate action for the next meeting in December. “Many” committee members said their economic outlooks would likely support no rate change in December. Learn mo ...

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $4,074.90 per ounce, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the previous day's close of $4,060, although prices declined in early trading [1] - The price of gold is significantly influenced by interest rate expectations, with a slight increase in the probability of a quarter-point rate reduction in December to 43.6% from 39.1% [1][2] - The latest employment report showed mixed results, with 119,000 jobs added in September but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [2] Gold Price Trends - The one-year gain for gold as of November 14 was 63.4%, indicating strong performance over the past year [3] - Gold prices have shown a decline of 2.9% over the past week and 6% over the past month, while the year-over-year increase stands at 53.2% [6] Investment Strategies - Experts recommend varying gold allocations based on investment goals, with suggestions ranging from 0% to 20% [4][5] - Robert R. Johnson advises against gold investing, citing the trade-off between reduced volatility and lost long-term returns, particularly for younger investors [5] - Brett Elliott suggests a 2% to 5% allocation for income-focused investors, while growth-oriented investors may consider 10% to 15% [7] - Blake McLaughlin supports a 5% to 8% allocation based on historical data, emphasizing gold's resilience during economic uncertainty [9] - Thomas Winmill recommends a long-term allocation of 5% to 15%, particularly through gold mining companies [10] - Vince Stanzione advocates for a 20% allocation in physical gold or gold ETFs as a wealth protection strategy [12]

US stock futures struggled on Monday to revive a rally stalled by doubts about interest-rate cuts, as investors looked ahead to high-stakes Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the delayed September jobs report. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) rose roughly 0.3%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) added 0.1%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, traded broadly flat. Wall Street is already getting set for Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday, always an intensely scrutini ...

The final full week of trading for the month of November will bring investors two crucial earnings reports and the restoration of the September jobs report, which will set the tone for the year's final weeks of trading. Results from Nvidia (NVDA) after the close on Wednesday and Walmart (WMT) on Thursday morning will provide an update on the AI trade and the US consumer, which have offered investors reasons for enthusiasm and caution in the last few weeks. This past week, US stocks battled their way back ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a shift in its committee composition, which may influence interest rate policies in the upcoming year, particularly with the retirement of Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, a known interest rate hawk [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Fed Composition - Raphael Bostic's retirement in February opens a key position that could be filled by a more dovish appointee, potentially leading to a tilt towards more interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The Atlanta Fed does not have a voting role until 2027, but its non-voting members can still significantly impact policy discussions [2][3]. - The reappointment of all 12 regional Fed bank presidents is set to occur in March, a process that has historically been routine but may face scrutiny under the current administration [3]. Group 2: Political Influences - Questions have emerged regarding the potential influence of the Trump administration on the reappointment process of Fed officials [4]. - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook could create another vacancy, allowing for a new appointment aligned with lower interest rate views [5]. - Analysts express skepticism about significant changes in the Fed's composition due to political pressures, suggesting that the process will remain stable [6][7]. Group 3: Future Leadership - The impending nomination of a new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is crucial, with candidates likely to favor lower interest rates [8]. - Potential nominees include current Fed governors and other economic leaders, all of whom are expected to adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates [8].

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since May, trading below $100,000, marking a 20% decline over the past month [1][2] - Currently priced under $95,000, Bitcoin is at its lowest level in six months after reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October [2] Warner Brothers Discovery - Warner Brothers Discovery is involved in a bidding war with Comcast, Netflix, and Paramount Sky Dance, with shares up approximately 115% year-to-date [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have decreased, with odds falling below 50% due to recent commentary from Fed officials [4][5] - Minneapolis Fed President expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the job market [5][6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Nvidia is set to report earnings, with expectations of $123 per share and revenues of $54.5 billion, indicating over 50% growth from the previous year [7][8] - A range of retail companies, including Target, Walmart, and Gap, will also report earnings, providing insights into consumer spending habits [8] Chinese ADRs Performance - Despite poor economic indicators, Chinese ADRs like JD and Tencent have performed well, with Xpong seeing significant gains of over 100% year-to-date [9][10][11] - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like Pinduoduo and Xiaomi are anticipated, with Pinduoduo facing market share challenges [11][12]

for more on the state of the economy and the the murky macro picture here. We are joined by Vincent Reinhardt, BNY investments chief economist, former Fed economist, do do you expect them to not cut in December, Vince, at this point. >> Oh, I I think they'll cut.And I think your conversation just now was exactly right. And you asked the right question, as did as did, Carl. Uh the answer, what has changed over the last couple months.Not a whole lot. We don't have a lot of data to support a a a changed outloo ...