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LPG早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the bottom - up rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The basis weakened, and the spreads between different contract months changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly. The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The fundamentals showed that port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. Refinery production increased, but factory inventories decreased due to increased demand. The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE changed to different extents, and the production profits of related products also showed different trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed different degrees of change. For example, on August 25, South China LPG was 4545, with a daily increase of 55; East China LPG was 4402, with a daily increase of 4; Shandong LPG was 4540, with a daily increase of 30. The 09 - 10 month spread was - 587 (- 78), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 82 (+ 2). The cheapest deliverable on Monday was East China civil LPG at 4402. FEI, CP, and PP prices rose, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP production fluctuated [1] Weekly View - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4398. The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1). External market prices strengthened slightly, and internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased. The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The production profits of related products such as PDH - made propylene, alkylation oil, etc. changed to different extents. Fundamentally, port supply and demand both decreased, inventory was basically flat, refinery production increased by 1.94%, and factory inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), and the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct) [1]
沥青早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 00:24
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Thick Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [3] Key Data Futures Contract Prices - BU主力合约: 3512 on August 25, up 29 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week [4] - BU06: 3372 on August 25, up 12 from the previous day and 54 from the previous week [4] - BU09: 3545 on August 25, up 29 from the previous day and 48 from the previous week [4] - BU12: 3432 on August 25, up 32 from the previous day and 62 from the previous week [4] - BU03: 3394 on August 25, up 32 from the previous day and 72 from the previous week [4] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: 257,555 on August 25, up 46,827 from the previous day and 43,392 from the previous week [4] - Open interest: 411,487 on August 25, down 9,629 from the previous day and 24,832 from the previous week [4] Market Prices - Shandong market price: 3520 on August 25, up 20 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [4] - East China market price: 3720 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4] - South China market price: 3480 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4] - North China market price: 3650 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] - Northeast market price: 3880 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] Spot Prices - Jingbo (Haiyun): 3680 on August 25, down 10 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week [4] - Bihai (Xin Bohai): 3650 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] Basis and Spread - Shandong - East China basis: -200 on August 25, up 20 from the previous day and down 90 from the previous week [4] - Shandong - Northeast basis: -360 on August 25, up 20 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [4] - East China - South China basis: 240 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4] - Shandong basis: 8 on August 25, down 9 from the previous day and down 151 from the previous week [4] - East China basis: 208 on August 25, down 29 from the previous day and down 61 from the previous week [4] - South China basis: -32 on August 25, down 29 from the previous day and down 91 from the previous week [4] - 03 - 06 spread: 22 on August 25, up 20 from the previous day and 18 from the previous week [4] - 06 - 09 spread: -173 on August 25, down 13 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week [4] - 09 - 12 spread: 113 on August 25, down 7 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 03 spread: 38 on August 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4] - Consecutive first - consecutive second spread: 29 on August 25, down 6 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week [4] Crack Spread and Profit - Asphalt Brent crack spread: Data unavailable after August 15 [4] - Asphalt Mares profit: Data unavailable after August 15 [4] - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit: 511 on August 15 [4] - Mares - type refinery comprehensive profit: 754 on August 15 [4] - Import profit (South Korea - East China): -126 on August 25, up 3 from the previous day and down 1 from the previous week [4] - Import profit (Singapore - South China): -1061 on August 25, up 4 from the previous day and down 26 from the previous week [4] Related Prices - Brent crude oil: 67.7 on August 25, up 0.1 from the previous day and 1.1 from the previous week [4] - Shandong gasoline market price: 7618 on August 25, down 51 from the previous day and 121 from the previous week [4] - Shandong diesel market price: 6476 on August 25, down 57 from the previous day and 126 from the previous week [4] - Shandong residual oil market price: 3635 on August 25, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4]
LPG早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:23
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].
沥青早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU主力合约价格从7月23日的3594降至8月21日的3465,日度变化为11,周度变化为 -38 [4] - BU06价格从3391变为3342,日度变化27,周度变化4 [4] - BU09价格从3594变为3496,日度变化3,周度变化 -38 [4] - BU12价格从3460变为3373,日度变化19,周度变化 -33 [4] - BU03价格从3406变为3340,日度变化20,周度变化0 [4] Trading Volume and Open Interest - 成交量从7月23日的300486变为8月21日的194917,日度变化 -27620,周度变化18196 [4] - 持仓量从459411变为424013,日度变化 -5954,周度变化 -20467 [4] - 合计从42950变为30940,日度变化 -200,周度变化 -1100 [4] Market Prices - 山东市场价从3845变为3510,日度变化 -20,周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东市场价从3780变为3720,日度变化0,周度变化 -10 [4] - 华南市场价从3590变为3490,日度变化 -20,周度变化 -40 [4] - 华北市场价从3730变为3660,日度变化 -10,周度变化 -30 [4] - 东北市场价维持3880,日度和周度变化均为0 [4] Spot Prices - 京博 (海韵) 价格维持3670,日度和周度变化均为0 [4] - 露海(鑫渤海) 价格从3730变为3660,日度变化 -10,周度变化 -30 [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - 山东 - 华东价差从 -90变为 -210,日度变化 -20,周度变化 -120 [4] - 山东 - 东北价差从 -85变为 -370,日度变化 -20,周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东 - 华南价差从190变为230,日度变化20,周度变化30 [4] - 山东基差从251变为45,日度变化 -31,周度变化 -92 [4] - 华东基差从186变为256,日度变化 -11,周度变化28 [4] - 华南基差从 -4变为25,日度变化 -31,周度变化 -2 [4] - 03 - 06月差从15变为 -2,日度变化 -7,周度变化 -4 [4] - 06 - 09月差从 -203变为 -154,日度变化24,周度变化42 [4] - 09 - 12月差从134变为123,日度变化 -16,周度变化 -5 [4] - 12 - 03月差从54变为33,日度变化 -1,周度变化 -33 [4] - 连一 - 连二月差从36变为42,日度变化 -8,周度变化11 [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - 沥青Brent裂差从30变为74(部分数据缺失) [4] - 沥青马瑞利润从 -42变为 -1(部分数据缺失) [4] - 普通炼厂综合利润从447变为496(部分数据缺失) [4] - 马瑞型炼厂综合利润从724变为762(部分数据缺失) [4] - 进口利润(韩国 - 华东) 从 -52变为 -131,日度变化0,周度变化 -5 [4] - 进口利润(新加坡 - 华南)从 -962变为 -1058,日度变化 -18,周度变化 -31 [4] Related Prices - Brent原油价格从68.6变为66.8,日度变化1.1,周度变化0.0 [4] - 汽油山东市场价从7799变为7655,日度变化7,周度变化 -77 [4] - 柴油山东市场价从6562变为6516,日度变化12,周度变化 -46 [4] - 渣油山东市场价维持3660,日度变化0,周度变化30 [4]
燃料油早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil rebounded and then weakened, the near-month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9-10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal and external spread slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking spread in Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9-10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal and external spread oscillated at $9. [4][5] - This week, inventories on land in Singapore decreased, but they were still not the highest in the same period of history. Floating storage decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, and arrivals this week oscillated. Shipments from the UAE rebounded on a month-on-month basis, and net exports increased significantly. Land inventories in Fujairah in the Middle East decreased, while floating storage inventories of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil increased significantly. ARA residue inventories increased, and residue inventories in the United States decreased, resulting in a large inventory contradiction. [5] - The divergence between the East and West of high-sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy crude oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions in the future. This week, LU remained weak. The basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. LU quotas were issued, and the internal and external spreads oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity for the high-sulfur 380 EW spread to widen. Fundamentally, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply-demand pattern will weaken. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from $631.89 to $646.80, with a change of $9.12. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - In the Singapore market, from August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst, Singapore 180cst, Singapore VLSFO, etc. also fluctuated. For example, the price of Singapore 380cst changed from $391.90 to $389.37, with a change of -$2.93. The basis and internal and external spreads of Singapore fuel oil also changed. [2][3] Domestic Fuel Oil Data - In the domestic market, from August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of FU (such as FU 01, FU 05, FU 09) and LU (such as LU 01, LU 05, LU 09) futures contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the price of FU 01 changed from 2750 to 2719, with a change of -6. [3][4]
LPG早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:01
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. The fundamentals show a decrease in port inventory and a slight increase in chemical demand, but the combustion demand remains weak, although it is gradually coming to an end [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a) Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4390. FEI increased while CP decreased. PP increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP slightly strengthened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures market strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -464 (-15). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The supply increased and demand was weak, causing the spot price to decline. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4410. The PG futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which improved market sentiment. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67). The 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12,888 lots (+2,709) [1]. b) Weekly Outlook - The international market was volatile, and freight rates were generally volatile at a high level. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP strengthened significantly, and the spread between PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12); PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12). The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, at 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread slightly strengthened [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased. Fundamentally, the port unloading volume decreased, chemical demand slightly increased, and port inventory decreased by 2.06%. The refinery product volume decreased by 1.68% mainly because some refineries increased self - use and Xintai's gas fractionation unit was under maintenance. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].
对二甲苯:成本支撑偏弱,但终端需求改善,月差仍偏强,PTA:弱现实强预期,月差反套 MEG:本周到港偏低,基差走强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the month - spread remains strong. PX is expected to be stronger than oil prices, but the overall upside space may be limited, and the 9 - 1 month - spread will continue to strengthen [1][7]. - PTA is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with a 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage. The unilateral price is in a volatile market with limited downside space for now [1][8]. - MEG has a low arrival volume this week, and the basis strengthens. The unilateral price is mainly in a volatile market, and the 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, with a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1][8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha at the end of the session remained strong, and the PX price increased. However, the low start - up of downstream PTA and the weak crude oil market restricted the rise of the PX market. Some October cargoes were traded at 836.5 - 837 dollars/ton [4]. - PTA: The spot price rose to 4,690 yuan/ton. The sentiment in the Asian PTA market remained sluggish due to concerns about over - capacity. A 760,000 - ton/year PTA plant in Taichung was shut down for planned maintenance [5]. - MEG: From August 18th to August 24th, the total planned arrival volume at major ports was about 54,000 tons [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still weak, with an average sales rate of slightly less than 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 57% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: Cost support is weak, but the PX fundamentals are tight. The 8 - month polyester start - up reached the bottom, and the 9 - month supply - demand is still tight. Pay attention to the restart progress of Fuhua Group [7]. - PTA: The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The supply is marginally tightened, and the demand improves month - on - month. The 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage should be maintained. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain [8]. - MEG: The import arrival volume decreases, and the supply and demand both increase. The 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, with a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the position reduction speed of the 09 contract [8].
LPG早报-20250819
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].
沥青早报-20250818
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:19
Report Overview - Report title: "Asphalt Report" [2] - Research team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report date: August 18, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) decreased from July 17 to August 15. For example, the BU主力合约 dropped from 3628 to 3461, a decrease of 167 points [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Both trading volume and open interest declined. Volume decreased from 255,138 on July 17 to 214,163 on August 15, and open interest dropped from 474,048 to 436,319 [4]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased from 42,950 on July 17 to 31,640 on August 15 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed varying trends. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market decreased from 3570 to 3520, while the low - end price in the North China market increased from 3660 to 3680 [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between regions and contracts also changed. For example, the Shandong - East China spread varied from - 100 to - 80, and the 06 - 09 spread changed from - 244 to - 179 [4]. Margins and Spreads - **Margins**: The asphalt Brent spread and asphalt Marrow profit showed significant fluctuations. The asphalt Marrow profit decreased from - 15 to - 53 from August 7 to August 15 [4]. - **Profits**: The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries fluctuated between 452 and 532, while the import profit (South Korea - East China) decreased from - 154 to - 239 [4]. Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Refined Products**: Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between 65.6 and 68.5, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in the Shandong market also changed slightly [4].
LPG早报-20250818
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]