Market Overview - On November 26, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations after reaching resistance at 3879 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3864.18 points, down 0.15%[2][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to close at 12,907.83 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%[7][8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,974 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3][7] Sector Performance - Strong performers included communication equipment, electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while shipbuilding, aerospace, gaming, and decoration sectors lagged[3][7] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors showing the highest gains[7][9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 15.90 times and 47.37 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][13] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3][13] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid chasing highs or selling lows, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3][13] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact the recovery process[4]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.34 trillion in October, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from the previous value, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months and above $3.2 trillion for 24 months, the highest level since December 2015 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for international payments and are held by central banks and government institutions, enhancing the ability to repay short-term foreign debts and maintain economic security [1] - The sources of China's foreign exchange reserves include trade surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flows from international investors purchasing Chinese financial assets [2] Group 2: Trade Surplus and FDI - China's trade surplus is expected to continue expanding, driven by the relative strength of global and domestic economies, with projections indicating a record high by 2026 [3] - FDI is influenced by the profitability of industrial enterprises in China, with historical trends showing that FDI growth aligns with the performance of industrial profits [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and PPI - The growth of industrial profits positively impacts the A-share market, attracting overseas financial capital, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support industrial profit growth and further attract capital inflows [3] Group 4: Valuation and Relative Value Changes - As of Q2 2025, the composition of global foreign exchange reserves shows that the U.S. dollar accounts for 56.33%, with China's reserves primarily in U.S. dollar assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline, which would increase the value of U.S. bonds and positively impact China's foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 5: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is expected to decline in 2026, which would raise the dollar value of non-dollar assets and positively influence China's trade surplus and capital inflows [6][7] - The relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that a decline in yields will likely lead to a decrease in the dollar index, further supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [7] Group 6: Future Projections and Implications - By 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily increase from the current $3.3 trillion, supported by both absolute scale and relative value changes [8] - This increase will enhance China's ability to repay short-term foreign debts and stabilize the renminbi exchange rate, contributing to financial stability in the A-share market [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Tuesday, with sectors such as communication equipment, electronic components, gaming, and semiconductors performing well, while shipbuilding, aviation, agriculture, and aerospace sectors lagged behind [1] - The market volatility increased due to fluctuating expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading some institutional investors to lock in annual returns and rankings [1] - The long-term fundamentals supporting the current A-share rally remain unchanged, with expectations that the Shanghai Composite Index will consolidate around the 4000-point mark [1] Group 2 - The A-share market continued its rebound on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a warming market sentiment, although it is still viewed as a correction from oversold conditions [2] - Technical analysis shows that despite two consecutive days of gains, the market has not yet recovered the losses from the previous Friday, and trading volume has not exceeded that of last Friday [2] - The market is expected to face pressure from tightening overseas liquidity and geopolitical risks, which may suppress market sentiment and affect the willingness of new capital to enter [2]

Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - The combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos in November reached 600 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity levels consistent with the previous month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy has become more precise and balanced, with cautious use of traditional tools, indicating a potential for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end [3] Personal Pension Funds - As of November 23, 2025, 97% of personal pension funds have achieved positive returns, with 296 out of 305 Y-share funds yielding positive results since inception [4] - The performance of index-type Y-share funds has significantly outperformed, with 13 funds exceeding a 30% return and four funds surpassing 40% [4] - Despite the overall positive performance, there remains a gap between the actual performance of personal pension funds and investor expectations, particularly in terms of stability versus profitability [5][6] Charging Battery Regulations - New safety standards for mobile power banks are expected to be published in December 2023, with implementation set for June 2026, leading to the invalidation of existing 3C certifications [7] - Compliance with the new standards is projected to increase manufacturing costs by approximately 30%, impacting the profitability of charging battery manufacturers [7][8] AI Industry Developments - Alphabet's market capitalization is nearing $4 trillion, driven by advancements in AI technologies, including the Gemini 3 model and new TPU developments, with a stock price increase of nearly 69% this year [9] - OpenAI has launched a free AI shopping search feature, enhancing its commercial capabilities and aiming to drive incremental sales for e-commerce platforms [11][12] - Nvidia has issued a detailed memo refuting allegations of financial misrepresentation, emphasizing its adherence to strict payment terms and clarifying its investment strategies amid scrutiny from short-sellers [13][14] Oil Market Outlook - JPMorgan forecasts that Brent crude oil prices may average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with potential declines to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [15][16] - The global oil supply is expected to outpace demand growth significantly in the coming years, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [15][16]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a reasonable valuation, with expectations for earnings to become the focal point in 2026, potentially driving upward momentum in the market [2] - The market adjustment has shown initial signs of support, with expectations for improved overseas liquidity and reduced domestic funding pressure, leading to a healthier market environment [2] - The three major broad-based ETFs from Huabao Fund provide investors with diverse options to invest in China's market, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices [2][3] Group 2 - The top three industries with net capital inflow include Electric Equipment and Electronics, with inflows of 3.83 billion and 3.785 billion respectively [2] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 84.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - The overall market saw 4,300 stocks rise, 160 remain unchanged, and 993 decline, indicating a mixed performance across the board [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced significant adjustments due to three main reasons: a decline in domestic economic data from September to October, a stronger US dollar index affecting market risk appetite, and year-end pressures leading to a slowdown in capital inflow [1][5][6] - Economic data for October shows a continued weakening trend, with industrial value-added growth at 4.9%, retail sales down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, and a decline in manufacturing investment growth [5][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that the most significant pressure points for the economy have likely passed, suggesting a lower probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing measures expected in early 2026 [5][6][10] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts have created confusion in the market, with the dollar index rising, which has negatively impacted the Hong Kong stock market and indirectly affected A-shares [6][10] - A-share financing has seen a slight net outflow, with the total financing amount decreasing from 2.48 trillion yuan to 2.47 trillion yuan, although the proportion of financing balance to A-share market capitalization has increased [7] - The investment strategy for November and December is expected to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, with an emphasis on sectors with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [8][10] Group 3 - Long-term projections for the A-share market in 2026 suggest a bullish outlook, with the CSI 300 index expected to rise by 15% to 22%, supported by both liquidity injections and improving fundamentals [10] - The anticipated nominal growth rate in 2026, despite a potential decline in actual GDP growth, is expected to drive earnings growth for the CSI 300 index by 5% to 6% [10]

Core Insights - The stock private equity position index has reached a new high of 81.13% as of November 14, 2025, marking a significant increase of 1.05% from the previous week and achieving a peak not seen in 112 weeks [1] - The surge in the index is primarily driven by a concentration of medium-position private equity funds moving towards full positions, with full-position private equity funds now accounting for 65.9% [1] Position Structure - The breakdown of private equity positions shows that full-position private equity funds have increased significantly, while medium-position funds have decreased to 18.97%. Low and empty-position funds account for 10.37% and 4.76%, respectively [1] - As of November 14, 2025, the position indices for different scales of private equity funds are as follows: over 100 billion at 87.07%, 50-100 billion at 83.56%, 20-50 billion at 78.67%, 10-20 billion at 80.48%, 5-10 billion at 80.86%, and 0-5 billion at 80.09% [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in positions is attributed to the continuous upward trend in the A-share market since August, which has improved the performance of private equity products and provided confidence for institutions to increase their positions [6] - Policy support for the long-term healthy development of the capital market and the ongoing trend of asset allocation towards equity markets have further strengthened the consensus on the long-term value of A-shares [6] - Billion-level private equity funds are showing a more aggressive stance in increasing positions, with a notable rise in full positions to 73.41%, while medium-position funds have dropped to 18.47% [2][4]

Core Insights - The stock private equity position index has reached a new high of 81.13% as of November 14, 2025, marking a significant increase of 1.05% from the previous week and achieving a peak not seen in 112 weeks [1] - The surge in the index is primarily driven by a concentration of medium-position private equity funds increasing their holdings, with full-position private equity now accounting for 65.9% [1] Group 1: Private Equity Position Statistics - As of November 14, 2025, the position index for different scales of stock private equity shows significant variation, with the following percentages: over 100 billion at 87.07%, 50-100 billion at 83.56%, 20-50 billion at 78.67%, 10-20 billion at 80.48%, 5-10 billion at 80.86%, and 0-5 billion at 80.09% [2][3] - The proportion of full-position private equity funds over 100 billion has increased to 73.41%, while the medium-position funds have decreased to 18.47% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The continuous rise in private equity positions is attributed to the sustained upward trend in the A-share market since August, which has improved performance and provided confidence for institutional investors to increase their holdings [6] - Policy support for the long-term healthy development of the capital market and the ongoing trend of asset allocation towards equity markets have reinforced the consensus on the long-term value of A-shares [6] - Large private equity firms are leveraging their research capabilities in emerging industries like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals to capture structural opportunities, which has led to an overall increase in industry positions [6]

A股三大股指持续走高，沪指涨1%，深证成指涨2.1%，创业板指涨2.9%，全市场超4900只个股上涨。 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 一周市场回顾 证券研究报告-一周市场回顾 分析师：马遥识途 资格证书：S1330524050001 联系邮箱：mayst@hxzb.cn 联系电话：15201282186 相关研究 一 周 市 场 回 顾 （ 2025.11.10 — 2025.11.14） 2025.11.19 一 周 市 场 回 顾 （ 2025.11.03 — 2025.11.07） 2025.11.14 一周市场回顾 （2025.11.17—2025.11.21） A 股市场： ◼ 本周 A 股上证指数下跌 3.90%，收于 3834.89 点，深证成指下跌 5.13%，收于 12538.07 点，创业板指下跌 6.15%，收于 2920.08 点。 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.10.27 — 2025.10.31） 2025.11.03 融资融券： 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 7 市 场 研 究 · 一 周 市 场 回 顾 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 价值风格类板块代表指数上证 50、中证 100、沪深 300 分别下跌 2.72%、下跌 3.88%、下跌 3.77%，成长风格类板块代表指 ...