Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with many companies delaying, adjusting, or terminating investment projects due to various pressures, including supply-demand imbalances, technological obsolescence, cash flow constraints, and changing policy environments [2][3][15]. Group 1: Industry Adjustments - In 2024, over 30 listed companies announced delays or terminations of lithium-related investment projects, with 22 companies making similar announcements in the first half of 2025 [3][9]. - Major projects affected include LG Energy's withdrawal from an $8.45 billion battery supply chain project in Indonesia and Guoxuan High-Tech's suspension of its electric vehicle battery production project in Michigan, USA [3]. - Companies like Tianli Lithium and XWANDA are shifting their focus from lithium battery projects to improving liquidity and other strategic adjustments [3][8]. Group 2: Reasons for Adjustments - Supply-demand structure reversal has led to structural overcapacity and price competition, causing many companies to adjust their production plans to avoid cost overruns and inventory issues [4][6]. - Technological iterations have rendered some planned projects outdated, as the market shifts towards higher-density products, with leading companies already investing in fourth and fifth-generation materials [4][5]. - Cash flow pressures and a tightening financing environment have exacerbated the situation, with lithium material prices plummeting over 70% and many companies facing significant revenue declines [6][10]. - Local funding withdrawals and policy shifts are forcing the industry to prioritize quality over quantity, with stricter standards for new projects leading to reduced support for inefficient projects [7][12]. Group 3: Shift to Other Investment Areas - Some companies are pivoting to more popular sectors, such as robotics, with Zhenyu Technology terminating its lithium battery shell production project to focus on humanoid robots [8][15]. - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from "wild expansion" to a phase driven by technology and resource integration, with cross-industry companies facing significant challenges [8][15]. Group 4: Challenges for Cross-Industry Companies - High technical barriers in the lithium battery industry, particularly regarding material purity and process iteration, have hindered many cross-industry entrants from achieving production success [10][11]. - Cross-industry companies often lack supply chain integration and policy sensitivity, leading to project delays and terminations due to regulatory hurdles and cost pressures [11][12]. - New projects must meet stringent standards related to energy consumption, environmental impact, and capacity utilization, increasing compliance costs for cross-industry firms [12]. Group 5: Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to continue expanding high-end capacity while phasing out low-end production over the next 1-2 years, with a focus on high-nickel ternary and solid-state batteries [15]. - Solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and new material systems are anticipated to become investment hotspots [15]. - Despite slow progress on overseas projects due to geopolitical risks, international expansion remains a key trend for companies [15].

2024年上半年，碳酸锂价格从10万元/吨跌到9万元/吨。对比来看，2025年上半年碳酸锂跌价幅度更 大。据上海有色网数据，2025年上半年电池级碳酸锂现货均价报7.04万元/吨左右，较2024年上半年的 10.37万元/吨下跌3.33万元/吨，跌幅达32.11%。 在碳酸锂价格探底之际，锂矿企业分化趋势明显。 截至2025年7月24日，已有14家锂矿企业披露上半年预期业绩。整体来看，7家盈利，7家亏损。在盈利 企业中，天齐锂业（002466.SZ）和威领股份（002667.SZ）扭亏，藏格矿业（000408.SZ）、西藏珠峰 （600338.SH）、科达制造（600499.SH）实现增长。而赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）、盛新锂能 （002240.SZ）等仍陷入亏损。 具体来看，碳酸锂价格在持续探底，且第二季度降幅更大。2025年开年，碳酸锂价格为7.57万元/吨， 一季度小幅跌至7.49万元/吨，降幅1.06%，维持相对稳定。然而进入第二季度后，价格加速下跌，6月 末跌至6.2万元/吨，单季度降幅达17.22%。 同时，锂精矿价格也在同步走弱。锂精矿（6%品位到岸价）的价格从2025年初的845美元/吨降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The rise of ferroalloys is mainly driven by strong policy expectations, macro - sentiment, and the increase in coal - based prices on the cost side, and the short - term outlook is optimistic. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small. Silicomanganese is in a destocking trend, and although the inventory of ferrosilicon is high, coal prices support the price of ferrosilicon. However, there is uncertainty about whether the price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan and the enterprise meeting have stimulated market confidence, but there are uncertainties in the specific implementation and the policy may deviate significantly from market expectations. If the coal price increase is a short - term fluctuation, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [3][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy's Strong Expectations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. The ferroalloy industry has relatively serious over - capacity in the steel industry. Market expectations are that ferroalloy prices will rise based on the price changes during the 2015 supply - side reform [4][5] Ferroalloy Enterprises' Anti -内卷 Symposium - Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy has not been implemented and it is uncertain whether it includes the ferroalloy industry, the internal meeting of the ferroalloy industry verifies market expectations. Due to the relatively low price of the manganese ore market and the low inventory of manganese ore in production enterprises, production enterprises have actively replenished their stocks, boosting the rise of ferroalloys [9] Increase in Coal - based Costs - The continuous increase in coking coal prices has led to an increase in ferroalloy costs because of the high correlation between ferroalloy costs and coal - based prices. With the coking coal main contract hitting the daily limit for many consecutive days, there is a possibility of a supplementary increase in ferroalloy futures [18] Future Sustainability - There is uncertainty about whether the ferroalloy price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan has uncertainties, and the policy may deviate from market expectations. If the coal price increase is short - term, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [21]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States requires Indonesia to open its market for U.S. industrial technology and agricultural products, eliminating 99% of tariff barriers, while Indonesian goods face a 19% tariff in the U.S. [1][3] - The agreement includes a large procurement deal worth billions, including purchases of Boeing aircraft, agricultural products, and energy, raising concerns about the unequal terms of the deal [1][3][12] - Indonesia's economic situation makes it difficult to absorb the expected influx of U.S. products, leading to speculation that Indonesia may act as a middleman to resell these products to other markets [5][9] Group 2 - The U.S. threatened to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods if the agreement was not reached, making the 19% tariff seem more acceptable to Indonesia [5][12] - The influx of U.S. agricultural products could threaten local farmers and food security in Indonesia, as the country has a fragile agricultural sector [7][12] - The U.S. aims to showcase its international influence and secure mineral resources from Indonesia, particularly rare earth elements, which are crucial for high-tech industries [9][12] Group 3 - The projected $50 billion market access opportunity is unrealistic given Indonesia's annual import total and its limited capacity to absorb U.S. agricultural and high-tech products [12][13] - The agreement reflects a political maneuver rather than a genuine economic partnership, with both parties having their own agendas [13] - Historical patterns suggest that such unequal agreements often disadvantage the weaker party, in this case, Indonesia [13]

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Release Date: July 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factors realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [8]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream and mid - stream is decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price difference is neutral. Import profit is around - 500, and export is good. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract may face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [8]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening. Attention should be paid to commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 increased by 51 to 2468, and the price of华南现货 increased by 43 to 2448. The主力基差 decreased by 8 to - 20, and the盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at - 1237 [2]. Plastic Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained at 820. The price of华北LL increased by 50 to 7230, and the price of华东LL decreased by 10 to 7315. The主力期货 price increased by 97 to 7385 [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of山东丙烯 decreased by 50 to 6250. The price of华东PP increased by 10 to 7100, and the主力期货 price increased by 85 to 7181 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of西北电石 remained at 2250, and the price of山东烧碱 remained at 842. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased by 10 to 5060, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 10 to - 80 [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the existence of differences in the China-EU relationship, similar to any bilateral relationship, but highlights a commitment to friendly and respectful dialogue on economic and trade issues [1] - China asserts that the essence of China-EU economic and trade relations is complementary advantages and mutual benefits, aiming for sustainable and balanced development in trade [1] - China is willing to import more high-quality European products and urges the EU to relax restrictions on high-tech exports to China [1] Group 2 - China argues that the issue of overcapacity should be viewed globally and determined by market demand, citing the example of the electric vehicle industry, where a projected shortfall of 27 million vehicles by 2030 exists [1] - The narrative of "Chinese overcapacity" is described as a one-sided understanding of market supply and demand in the context of economic globalization, often used as a pretext for protectionist measures [1] - China reaffirms that its industrial subsidy policies adhere to principles of openness, fairness, and compliance with WTO rules, noting that subsidy policies are commonly adopted by countries, including the EU [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Industrial Chemicals in Europe [1] - **Key Focus**: The call discusses the potential closure of old chemical capacity in China and its implications for the global chemical industry, particularly in Europe [2][3]. Core Insights - **China's Regulatory Actions**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other authorities in China are gathering data on petrochemical facilities over 20 years old, with plans to phase out 30-year-old capacity by 2030. This aims to alleviate overcapacity and promote industry consolidation [2]. - **Impact on Sentiment**: The prohibition of new capacity additions is viewed as a significant step to address oversupply, which is expected to positively influence market sentiment towards European chemical companies such as BASF, Wacker, Solvay, and Arkema [3]. - **Capacity Affected**: Approximately 25% of refining capacity and 14% of chemical capacity in China is expected to be impacted by the proposed regulations [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **BASF**: Upgraded to Overweight with a target price of €54, based on a DCF valuation and peer trading comparables [11]. The company is expected to benefit from improved market conditions due to regulatory changes in China [3]. - **Arkema**: Target price set at €97, indicating a favorable valuation with a 7% free cash flow yield based on 2025 estimates [8]. - **Solvay**: Target price of €30, with risks including a negative terminal growth rate and high costs for decarbonization [12]. - **Wacker Chemie**: Target price of €99, with significant upside potential if earnings expectations are met [15]. Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Include the maintenance of acrylic spreads, recovery in technical polymers, and favorable foreign exchange movements [9][13]. - **Downside Risks**: Potential liabilities related to PFAS in the US and failure to replace lost sales to Evonik [10][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: Geopolitical risks and fluctuations in commodity prices could impact feedstock costs and overall demand [14][17]. Conclusion - The regulatory changes in China are expected to have a ripple effect on the global chemical industry, particularly benefiting European companies by addressing overcapacity issues. The sentiment towards companies like BASF, Arkema, and Wacker Chemie is likely to improve as a result of these developments.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-shares rose strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% at 3605.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Multiple sectors saw gains, with securities, energy metals, and coal industries leading the increase [1]. - Hong Kong stocks hit a new high with low intraday selling pressure. The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.51% at 25667.18 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.18%. Lithium stocks rose strongly, the semiconductor industry rallied, and precious metals declined [1]. - European central banks kept interest rates unchanged and entered a wait - and - see mode. Traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts this year [8][12]. - The China - EU Summit achieved little. The EU called on China to open its market and address over - capacity issues [8][12]. - The US initial jobless claims fell for the sixth consecutive week, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, highlighting the resilience of the labor market [12]. Company - Specific Highlights Company Listing and Performance - Zhonghui Yuantong Bio, a vaccine company, resubmitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its losses widened in the first quarter [10]. - Pinduoduo appointed Ernst & Young Hong Kong to audit its financial statements, which analysts believe may be a step towards listing in Hong Kong [10]. - Juzhi Technology reapplied for listing in Hong Kong. Its net profit decreased by 13.6% in the first four months of this year [10]. Company Business Moves - JD Group is in advanced talks to acquire German electronics retailer Ceconomy for about $2.6 billion [13]. - Zijin Mining is leading the bid for the African "Tongon" gold mine, with an offer potentially up to $500 million [13]. Company Ratings - Morgan Stanley re - covered CK Hutchison, giving it a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$65, representing a 28% upside from the current price [13]. - Morgan Stanley raised the target price of China Hongqiao to HK$24.8 and reiterated its "Buy" rating [13]. Company Product Developments - China Biopharmaceutical's subsidiary, Lixin Pharmaceutical, obtained the IND approval for its innovative drug LM - 350 "CDH17 ADC" from the US FDA [13]. Company Land Transactions - Cai Wensheng of Meitu is reported to have bought a plot in Causeway Bay for HK$750 million [13]. Company Profit Projections - Lingbao Gold expects its mid - year net profit to increase by up to 3.5 times year - on - year [13]. Market Data Summaries Stock Price Changes - Various stocks in different markets showed different price changes, including those in A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks. For example, in A - shares, stocks like HNA Holdings and Hainan Airport had significant price increases [30]. Dividends and Rights Issues - Multiple companies had dividend announcements, rights issues, or share consolidation plans. For instance, ASMPT announced a mid - year dividend of HK$0.26 [16]. Economic Indicators - US economic indicators such as long - term net TIC flows, new home starts, and consumer confidence index showed different trends. The long - term net TIC flows in May were $259.4 billion, a decrease of $7.8 billion [17].

Group 1 - China's Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, led by President Xi, announced plans to address "low-price and disorderly competition" [1] - The initiative aims to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly in the auto and solar panel industries [1] - Overcapacity in these sectors has been identified as a significant issue [1]

观察者网：近期政策层和行业层面共同发力"反内卷"，引发市场广泛关注。您作为光伏从业人员，如何看待这轮反内卷？它和 之前的"去产能"和"供给侧改革"有什么本质不同？ 金鑫：在我看来，供给侧改革也好、去产能也好，对本行业本质上没什么不同。去年你们也采访过我，我当时就说"过剩"是个 必须面对的问题，只是由于当时雷蒙多访华，不便多谈此事；但到去年下半年，大家不得不认真直面这个局面。 如今"反内卷"已经扩展到更多领域，光伏的反内卷和去产能需求比最近下功夫最多的汽车行业还早，去年光伏就已经面临去产 能问题，但因为雷蒙多来华，去年下半年以前，全行业和国家层面此前并未充分讨论此事。现在再不谈这个问题已不行，情况 非常严重。我们谈本行业供给侧改革核心就是要客观上承认我们产能过剩。 光伏行业全球性产能过剩的第一个背景是国内产能过于强大，确实过剩。 第二个背景是中国资本过剩，这是因为中国及全球经济基本面低迷，只要有个稍好的行业资本就蜂拥而入，于是产能疯狂上 涨。地方政府在过去的两三年中找到光伏这个好项目之后，为招商引资推波助澜，给地、给政策、给贷款甚至入股，光伏产能 像脱缰野马。 第三个背景与全球光伏需求下滑密切相关。去年全球光伏 ...