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【招银研究|政策】开局之年,提质增效——2025年中央经济工作会议学习体会
招商银行研究· 2025-12-12 11:17
Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [1] Group 1: Work Tone - The conference adopts a pragmatic and positive tone, affirming that the main economic goals for 2025 will be met, with an expected GDP growth rate of 5% [2] - It acknowledges persistent challenges in economic development, including external environmental changes, domestic supply-demand imbalances, and risks in key areas [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will maintain strength and enhance effectiveness, with a focus on both existing and new policies [5] - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of 4% for 2026, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion, an increase of 190 billion from 2025 [7] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, prioritizing economic stability over inflation, with expectations for a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirement ratios [9] Group 3: Key Work Areas - The conference identifies eight key work areas, with "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, focusing on increasing residents' income and optimizing supply [10] - Innovation-driven policies will see significant changes, including the establishment of a comprehensive education and technology talent development plan [12] - Emphasis on green transformation and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt [14][15]
国金证券:经济工作会议的新与变
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-12-12 10:54
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference reflects a more confident assessment of the economic situation compared to previous years, indicating a shift in tone regarding external and internal challenges [1][2] - The fiscal policy is characterized by greater determination, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels, suggesting limited changes in fiscal space for the coming year [1][3] - Monetary policy emphasizes flexibility and efficiency, reiterating the importance of "dual cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) as a response to economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - The conference highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on optimizing consumption policies and releasing the potential of service consumption [2][3] - Investment is expected to stabilize after experiencing negative growth, with plans to increase central budget investments and optimize local government special bonds [3][4] - Innovation is driven by the emphasis on "Artificial Intelligence+", indicating its critical role in the competitive landscape and the need for supportive regulations [3][4] Group 3 - The conference stresses the need to combat "involution" and promote a unified market, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability and drive technological innovation [4] - Real estate is reintroduced as a focus area, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks, indicating potential new policies in this sector [4]
华福证券任志强:迈向“十五五” 稳中求进、新质领航
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-12 10:50
任志强称,本次会议传递的核心信号是:宏观政策将保持连续性与协同性,确保经济平稳开局;而"因地制宜发展新质生 产力"被置于前所未有的战略高度,将成为驱动经济结构优化与产业升级的核心引擎。 (编辑 郭之宸) 本报讯 (记者袁传玺)12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行。对此,华福证券总裁助理兼研究所所长任志强在 其研究报告中表示,此次会议首次系统性地提出涵盖内需、创新、改革、开放等八个方面的"坚持",为"十五五"规划开局之年 勾勒出清晰的发展蓝图。会议在肯定2025年经济"顶压前行、向新向优"发展成果的同时,直面"供强需弱"等现实挑战,并以罕 见的清晰度和力度部署了政策框架与八大重点任务。 任志强认为,会议部署的八大重点任务构成了2026年经济工作的施工图。其中,"内需主导"与"创新驱动"位居前两位,清 晰地指明了短期稳增长与中长期动能转换的路径。这些任务并非孤立,而是相互关联、协同推进的系统工程。任务一"坚持内 需主导"直接回应国内供强需弱矛盾,任务二"坚持创新驱动"是构筑长期竞争优势的核心,任务三"改革攻坚"与任务八"守牢底 线"体现了在发展中化解风险的思路。其他重要任务同样蕴含机会:任务四"对外开 ...
视频丨主要目标将顺利完成 中国经济今年有哪些亮眼表现?专家解读
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-12-12 10:27
中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出今年我国经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。这一年,中国经济有哪些亮眼表现?如何看待当前经 济形势?专家对此进行了解读。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵:今年以来,全球经济增长持续放缓,我国经济总体保持了平稳的发展态势,各方的积极性、主动 性充分调动,各类宏观政策持续加力显效,共同推动经济的内生增长动力不断壮大,全年的各项指标将顺利完成,我国的经济高质量发展迈出了坚实的步 伐。 会议用"五个必须"科学总结了做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会,并提出我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变,要坚定信心、用好优势、 应对挑战,不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵:会议实际上毫不讳言地直面我们当前面对的非常突出的矛盾,比如说我们经济里边供强虚弱的问 题,并且对这些问题做出了非常准确的判断和认识,来有的放矢解决这些问题。同时还有一系列非常突出的优势和长处,包括超大规模的市场优势,是我们 未来发展的底气和支柱所在。 中央经济工作会议指出,今年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压前行,向新向优发展,现代化产 ...
泓德基金:坚持内需主导,关注“两新”政策后续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 09:46
专题:中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 专题:中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行。泓德基金表示,本次会议高度肯定今年和"十四五"期 间的发展成果,并在过去5年应对各种冲击挑战下,首次系统提出做好新形势下经济工作"五个必须", 构成后续政策的"思想基石"。 会议认为,当下经济面临的问题是发展中、转型中的问题,所以政策相对保持战略定力,更多是托而非 举。财政政策方面,措辞更加温和,注重改革。货币政策方面,维持适度宽松,新增关注物价合理回 升,降准降息仍是政策选项,不过表述从去年从"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 政策工具",更加注重政策边际上的效果。 泓德基金分析,会议坚持内需主导,并注重供给端的问题。从需求侧看,定调内需主导。一是消费方 面,政策部署增量。明年的首要工作仍是"坚持内需主导,建设强大国内市场"。同时,提出要扩大优质 商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实施,后续关注"两新"补贴规模和补贴范围的扩容。二是投资方面, 会议定调推动止跌回稳。后续政策可能会在投资止跌回稳、"反内卷"之间结构性再平衡。三是房地产方 面,会议对房地产的定调 ...
解读2025中央经济工作会议:真抓实干“十五五”|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-12-12 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic and practical approach to economic policy in China, focusing on targeted and effective measures to address existing challenges while maintaining long-term growth potential [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference has shifted from general principles to a more systematic and practical approach, emphasizing "targeted precision" and "solid implementation" in economic policies [5]. - The conference acknowledges the intertwining of long-term positive economic trends with new challenges, advocating for integrated effects of existing and new policies rather than a scattered use of policy tools [5][7]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas - The conference identifies three main focus areas: expanding domestic demand, fostering innovation and reform, and addressing risk in key sectors such as real estate and local government debt [10]. - It highlights the need to tackle demand shortfalls, enhance innovation-driven growth, and manage risks effectively, particularly in the real estate market and local government debt [10][19]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The article outlines specific actions to boost domestic demand, including initiatives to enhance consumer spending and increase investment through government support and private sector engagement [13][14]. - It stresses the importance of aligning consumption and investment strategies to create a robust foundation for domestic demand growth [14][15]. Group 4: Innovation and Reform - The conference sets a clear agenda for innovation, including the establishment of international technology innovation centers and the promotion of a collaborative ecosystem for technology and industry integration [16]. - It emphasizes the need for reforms that dismantle barriers and release institutional dividends, with specific regulations and action plans to support private enterprises and improve the business environment [17]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Risk Management - The article discusses measures to enhance social welfare, focusing on employment stability, education, healthcare, and support for vulnerable groups, ensuring a safety net for the population [18]. - It outlines a structured approach to risk management, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, advocating for precise and gradual measures to mitigate systemic risks [19][20]. Group 6: Capital Market Development - The article highlights the importance of deepening capital market reforms to enhance attractiveness and inclusivity, aiming to create a multi-layered and differentiated market system [22][23]. - It calls for optimizing return mechanisms for investors and improving the regulatory framework to support long-term investments and facilitate market access for various stakeholders [22][23].
聚焦中央经济工作会议|东方证券黄燕铭:中国经济长期向好具有三大核心驱动力
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-12 07:35
12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行,全面总结2025年经济工作,深刻分析当前经济形势, 并部署2026年经济工作。 "2026年是'十五五'开局年,也是第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局之后'再出发'的关键节 点。"东方证券研究所所长黄燕铭在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,立足当下,会议对2026年经济 环境的总体判断是"外部环境变化影响加深,国内供强需弱矛盾突出,重点领域风险隐患较多",相较于 去年表述,更加直接地点出"供强需弱"这一核心矛盾。同时会议也提到,"这些大多是发展中、转型中 的问题,经过努力是可以解决的,我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变",因此可以期待 的是,未来政策在提振需求、优化供给这一主线上将更为聚焦。 稳中求进提质效 以创新驱动培育新动能、推动产业升级,是本次会议部署的重点任务。会议明确,坚持创新驱动,加紧 培育壮大新动能。 黄燕铭分析称,本次会议有一个重要特征就是对创新驱动以及"新动能"的表述变得更加"广义"。去年中 央经济工作会议中,"创新"相关段落的表述为"以科技创新引领新质生产力发展",主要聚焦新技术以及 培育新技术的金融与营商环境,但今年紧接在"内需 ...
国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦:建设离岸人民币金融产品生态,中国需要形成强大货币|2025华夏机构投资者年会
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-12 06:35
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者张萌 卢梦雪 北京报道 12月12日,由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融(保险)科技论坛在北京举 行。 二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势。与以往技术革命不同,中国在本次革命中产业工 程化和商业应用场景等领域,已经处于并驾齐驱或局部领先的位置,开始踏入全球科技进步前沿的无人 区。在低碳绿色产业等领域,中国走出了具有自身特殊的创新驱动绿色转型路径。 三是超大规模市场经济优势。刘世锦特别强调,这不仅包括超大规模消费市场,还包括生产、投资、贸 易、创新、金融、货币等全方位规模效应。他提到,4亿中等收入群体是一个巨大的消费市场,而更有 潜力的是9亿中低收入阶层逐步转为中等收入群体。"到那个时候的市场消费规模,与今天是不可同日而 语的。" 金融强国的关键性标识是形成强大货币 基于三大优势,刘世锦提出应构建"制造强国、消费强国、金融强国"的现代化"基础三角结构"。 本届年会以"活力与韧性 拓新与赋能"为核心主题,由中央财经大学数字经济融合创新发展中心、华夏 时报金融思想荟、华夏时报金融研究院联合提供智力支持,意在回应时代之问,凝聚发展共识,探寻 ...
明确“路线图” 中央经济工作会议部署八项任务
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-12 06:05
Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and innovation-driven growth [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The first task is to "insist on domestic demand as the main driver and build a strong domestic market," highlighting its significance in the overall economic development [1] - The second task focuses on "insisting on innovation-driven growth and accelerating the cultivation of new momentum," indicating that technological innovation will play a crucial role in expanding domestic demand [1] - The third task emphasizes "deepening reforms to enhance the vitality of high-quality development," which includes improving the national unified market and optimizing the business environment to address institutional bottlenecks [1] Group 2: External Relations and Cooperation - The fourth task is to "insist on opening up and promoting win-win cooperation in multiple fields," which aims to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets and resources [2] - The fifth task stresses "coordinated development to promote urban-rural integration and regional linkage," essential for achieving a broader and more robust new development pattern [2] Group 3: Sustainability and Social Welfare - The sixth task is to "insist on leading with 'dual carbon' goals to promote comprehensive green transformation," aligning with the previously announced goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality [2] - The seventh task focuses on "prioritizing people's livelihoods and striving to do practical things for the public," reiterating the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [2] Group 4: Risk Management - The eighth task is to "ensure bottom-line stability and actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas," particularly in stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt risks [2] - The overall economic policy approach is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "quality and efficiency," emphasizing the need for coordinated policy efforts [3]
“开局之年”中国经济怎么干?关注这些重点任务
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 05:45
会议用"五个必须"科学总结了做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会,并提出我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。要 坚定信心,用好优势,应对挑战,不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 央视网消息:中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出今年我国经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。这一年,中国经 济有哪些亮眼表现?如何看待当前经济形势?来看专家的解读。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵:今年以来,全球经济增长持续放缓,我国经济总体保持了平稳的发展态势, 各方的积极性、主动性充分调动,各类宏观政策持续加力显效,共同推动经济的内生增长动力不断壮大,全年各项指标将顺利完成, 我国经济高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 中央经济工作会议指出,今年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,现代化产业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出 新步伐,重点领域风险化解取得积极进展,民生保障更加有力。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任 邹蕴涵:实际上,会议毫不讳言地直面我们当前面对的非常突出的矛盾。比如说,经 济里边供强虚弱的问题,并且对这些问题做出了非常准确的判断和认识,有的放矢解决这些问题。同时, ...