Core Insights - The Chinese government has made significant progress in water conservancy infrastructure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, establishing the world's largest and most comprehensive water conservancy system [1][2] Investment and Infrastructure Development - Water conservancy investment reached over 1 trillion yuan in 2022, marking a historical milestone, with projections for 2024 to reach 1,352.9 billion yuan, totaling over 5.4 trillion yuan for the entire "14th Five-Year Plan," which is 1.6 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - A total of 172 major water conservancy projects have commenced since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," optimizing the layout, structure, function, and system integration of water infrastructure [1] Flood Control and Disaster Prevention - The flood control capacity of seven major rivers has reached 2,104 billion cubic meters, capable of defending against the largest floods since the founding of New China [2] - The proportion of flood disaster losses to GDP has decreased from 0.28% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 0.18% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The national water network construction is progressing, with an expected coverage rate of 80.3% by the end of this year, facilitating a water resource allocation pattern of "south-north allocation and east-west mutual assistance" [2]

"十四五"时期，我国文旅产业发展蓬勃兴旺，文化产业体系更加完善，结构布局不断优化，规模稳 步扩大，效益明显提升，扩大内需带动消费稳定预期等作用得到彰显。 央广网北京9月30日消息（记者孙鲁晋）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道， 在29日下午举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上，文化和旅游部介绍，"十四五"以 来，我国文旅公共服务惠及城乡，文旅产业发展蓬勃兴旺，有力促进了经济社会高质量发展。 孙业礼：2024年文化产业实现的营业收入达到19.14万亿元，产品供给质量服务的质量持续优化， 市场乱象得到有力整治，国内居民出游人次总花费保持较高的增长速度。2025年上半年国内居民出游 32.85亿人次，总花费达到3.15万亿元，又创新高，文旅、商、体、农等融合发展，成为激发文旅消费， 拉动综合消费，带动增加就业的重要引擎。 中央宣传部副部长、文化和旅游部部长孙业礼介绍，"十四五"时期我国文艺创作生产引导扶持机制 更加健全，新时代系列文艺创作工程顺利实施，国家艺术基金资助、创作、演出、展览、人才等项目 3568个。文旅公共服务惠及城乡，公共文化设施网络更加健全。 孙业礼：截至2024年 ...

Market Performance Review - In September, major stock indices showed a mixed performance, with growth style leading the way. As of September 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.77%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.04%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 9.04% [4][12] - The overall market sentiment was stable, with A-shares experiencing a rebound after an initial decline following the military parade on September 3. The internal economic data remained stable, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut aligned with market expectations, indicating that market movements were primarily driven by internal dynamics [4][12] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests a strategy of "waiting for space by using time," anticipating the next policy trigger. Since the market rally began on June 23, A-shares have accumulated significant gains, and a technical stagnation has been observed. The HMM timing model indicates a reduction in positions as the market awaits domestic policy support for the next rally [5][33] - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks present better value, and A-shares should focus on individual stocks with "turnaround" logic. Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to international liquidity, and the current situation resembles the 2007 A-share bull market, where Hong Kong stocks outperformed A-shares post-interest rate cuts [5][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on individual stock alpha opportunities rather than relying on broad market trends, especially given the lack of mainline opportunities in the 2025 interim report season [5][34] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests that the current market's potential returns do not justify the risks, leading to a recommendation for a cash position. The model has demonstrated excellent risk control and upward-following capabilities since the beginning of 2024 [20][22] - Personal investor sentiment has slightly improved, with the sentiment index showing a significant decline from 15.96% on September 20 to -4.56% as of September 27. This indicates a strong correlation between market movements and investor sentiment [25][26] - Financing sentiment has also warmed, with financing transactions maintaining over 20% of total A-share trading volume, indicating a continued net inflow of funds [28][29] Sector Performance - In September, the TMT and financial sectors led the gains, while consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks. The top-performing industries included communication (11.97%), non-ferrous metals (9.13%), and non-bank financials (8.84%), while food and beverage (-6.34%) and beauty care (-4.57%) lagged [16][19] - The report notes that the trading dynamics in the new energy sector, particularly in battery technology and photovoltaic policies, are influencing market performance, with a focus on domestic and international capital expenditures [16][19]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant achievements in the high-quality development of culture and tourism, contributing positively to economic and social development and enhancing the quality of life for the people [3][4]. Group 1: Cultural and Artistic Development - The cultural and tourism sector has experienced a flourishing of artistic creation, with notable performances such as the large-scale epic "Great Journey" and the music and dance epic "Justice Prevails" [4]. - The government has implemented action plans to promote stage arts and fine arts, leading to a rich supply of excellent artistic works that resonate with the public [4]. - National cultural festivals and exhibitions have been organized, providing platforms for showcasing outstanding works and engaging the public [4]. Group 2: Public Cultural Services - The public cultural service system has been improved, focusing on accessibility, quality, and equity [5][8]. - The establishment of a nationwide smart library system and public cultural cloud services has shown significant progress [8]. - The number of 5A-level tourist attractions has increased, with 58 new additions and approximately 2,600 new A-level attractions, enhancing the overall tourism experience [8]. Group 3: Non-Material Cultural Heritage - The establishment of 12,900 non-material heritage workshops has created over 1.2 million jobs, integrating non-material heritage into daily life and enhancing cultural experiences [10]. - Efforts are being made to connect non-material heritage with modern life, ensuring its relevance and vitality in contemporary society [11]. Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Industry Growth - The cultural industry is projected to achieve a revenue of 19.14 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 37.7% increase since 2020 [12]. - The number of large-scale cultural enterprises has risen to 78,000, reflecting a robust growth in the cultural sector [12]. - The tourism industry has rebounded quickly post-pandemic, with domestic travel and spending showing high growth rates [12]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Cultural Exchange - The number of overseas Chinese cultural centers and tourism offices has increased to 73, with cultural cooperation agreements signed with over 150 countries [13]. - In 2024, inbound tourism is expected to reach 132 million visitors, a 60% increase year-on-year, while outbound tourism is projected at 123 million, a 40% increase [13]. - The government aims to deepen international cooperation and promote cultural exchange to enhance mutual understanding and friendship [13].

Core Insights - The Chinese government has made significant progress in water resources management and infrastructure development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on flood control, water supply, food security, and ecological safety [1][2]. Investment and Infrastructure Development - Water infrastructure investment has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, reaching a historical high of 1.3529 trillion yuan in 2024, with a total expected investment of 5.4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is 1.6 times that of the previous five-year period [2]. - A total of 172 major water conservancy projects have commenced since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with 95,000 reservoirs, 200 large and medium-sized water diversion projects, and 31,800 kilometers of embankments constructed by the end of 2024 [2]. Flood and Drought Management - The proportion of flood disaster losses to GDP has decreased from 0.28% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 0.18% during the current period, with flood control capacity significantly enhanced [2]. - The water storage capacity of reservoirs is 185.6 billion cubic meters, protecting 660 million people, and the country has effectively managed severe droughts in major river basins [2]. Water Resource Allocation - The national water network coverage is expected to reach 80.3% by the end of this year, with significant projects like the South-to-North Water Diversion and other major water diversion projects enhancing water resource allocation [3]. - The East and Middle Line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project has delivered over 83 billion cubic meters of water, benefiting 195 million people in 48 major cities [3]. Water Conservation and Efficiency - Water usage has achieved zero growth despite economic expansion, with water efficiency improving significantly; water consumption per unit of GDP and industrial output has decreased by 17.7% and 23.6% respectively compared to 2020 [4]. - The area of water-saving irrigation has reached 63.8 million acres, with the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water increasing to 0.58 [4]. Agricultural Support and Rural Water Supply - The government has focused on modernizing irrigation systems and enhancing agricultural water efficiency, with over 2 million acres of irrigation area restored or improved [5]. - Rural water supply initiatives aim for a 96% coverage rate of tap water by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," implementing standardized construction and management models [5]. Ecological Restoration - The ecological environment of rivers and lakes has improved, with a 98.6% compliance rate for ecological flow standards in key rivers and lakes [7]. - The area affected by soil erosion on the Loess Plateau has been reduced by over half, with significant investments in soil conservation measures [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuous advancement of standardized and equitable public cultural services in China, with a focus on enhancing accessibility and quality for the public [1][2] - By the end of 2024, there will be 3,248 public libraries, nearly 44,000 community cultural institutions, and over 40,000 new public cultural spaces across the country, providing more opportunities for the public to enjoy cultural services [1] - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," the cultural and tourism system has aimed to make public cultural services more convenient, high-quality, and fair, striving to bridge the "last mile" of public cultural service delivery [1] Group 2 - The tourism public services have become more beneficial and convenient for the public, with an increasingly improved facility network and enhanced service quality, including the implementation of the "toilet revolution" which has seen the construction and renovation of approximately 150,000 toilets [2] - The next steps involve maintaining a government-led and socially participatory approach, leveraging digitalization to empower traditional service models, and activating grassroots cultural vitality to continuously improve the quality and efficiency of public cultural services [2]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has made significant progress in water conservancy development, with a focus on infrastructure investment and resource allocation. Group 1: Investment in Water Conservancy - The investment in water conservancy construction reached over 1 trillion yuan for the first time in 2022, marking a historical record for three consecutive years, with an expected total investment of 13,529 billion yuan in 2024, and over 54,000 billion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is 1.6 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Group 2: Water Resource Allocation - The formation of a water resource allocation pattern of "south-north transfer and east-west mutual assistance" has accelerated, with an expected national water network coverage rate of 80.3% by the end of this year, and a key river and lake ecological flow compliance rate of 98.6% [5]. Group 3: Irrigation and Efficiency - In the past five years, 1,959 large and medium-sized irrigation areas have undergone modernization, with over 200 million mu of irrigation area newly restored and improved. The irrigation water efficiency has improved year by year, maintaining a grain productivity of over 3.6 pounds per unit of irrigation water, highlighting the crucial role of irrigation areas in grain production [5].

"十四五"以来，文化和旅游系统在党中央坚强领导下，统筹推进文化事业、文化产业和旅游业发展，高效完成"十四五"规划的 目标任务，有力促进了经济社会高质量发展，为不断满足人民美好生活需要作出了积极贡献。跟随海报，一起看看。 新华社权威速览 ·非凡" 文旅公共服务惠及城 截至2024年底,全国共有公共图书馆3248 群众文化机构近4.4万个 新型公共文化空间4万多个 "村晚"活力四射,"村歌"唱响全 "广场舞"舞动城乡 旅游厕所革命深入实施,新建改扩建厕所约15万座 公布第五批国家级非遗代表性项目325项 第六批国家级非遗代表性传承人942人 北京中轴线、西夏陵和中国茶、春节申遗成, 我国列入《世界遗产名录》项目60项 列入联合国教科文组织非遗名录名册项目44项 新华社权威速览 ·非风 "十四五 文旅产业发展蓬勃兴旺 新华社权威速览 · 非风 · 十 文化遗产工作开创新 新华社权威速览 ·非凡 ·十四) 国际交流合作走深走实 中国 -- 中亚峰会、中非合作论坛峰会、 上海合作组织峰会等配套文化活动成功举办 服务了大国外交、展现了中国形象 海外中国文化中心、旅游办事机构增至73家 会同相关部门推动入境旅游便利化国际化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Supply side: High asphalt losses, raw material shortages, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected to keep the asphalt operating rate low in Q4. With the widening discount of diluted asphalt, attention should be paid to the potential increase in Venezuelan heavy oil flowing to China. Import growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be very limited. [4][78] - Demand side: Asphalt demand is mainly concentrated in road infrastructure and real estate, with road infrastructure accounting for 70%. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", many road construction projects are in the delivery phase, which will drive asphalt demand. However, due to financial constraints on local governments and the lack of improvement in the real estate market, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly in Q4 and will still lag behind previous years. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the capital side and the pace of forming asphalt physical volume. Low asphalt inventory strongly supports asphalt futures prices. [4][78] - Overall trend: With weak supply and demand, asphalt is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations in Q4, with its overall center of gravity moving down. The high asphalt basis suggests that northern spot traders can short the basis. Also, the 01 - 06 spread of asphalt is expected to weaken seasonally, so it is recommended to short the 01 - 06 spread. [4][78] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price走势 - The asphalt/crude oil ratio increased in the first three quarters of 2025. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Venezuela, the ratio is expected to remain high in Q4. [9] - After the implementation of the diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy, refineries suffered heavy losses in processing diluted asphalt, leading to a significant reduction in imports and low port inventories. [11] - In the South China region, the increase in refinery operating rates has given asphalt spot prices a significant advantage. [20] - Since 2025, the asphalt basis first declined and then rebounded to a relatively high level. Recently, it has dropped to a slightly high - neutral position. [29] 2. Asphalt Production and Consumption - In August 2025, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.74%, and the Shandong region's operating rate decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 33.74%, both at relatively low levels. [34] - In August 2025, asphalt production increased by 0.75% month - on - month to 2.5267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production increased by 9.28% year - on - year to 18.8156 million tons. [39] - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 2.833 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 21.21%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption increased by 4.98% year - on - year to 18.0629 million tons. As of September 26, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 0.32% week - on - week to 312,600 tons. [44] - As of September 26, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating rate was mostly low, and the profit of Shandong asphalt spot was significantly in the red, with a loss of over 600 yuan/ton. [47] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative net import of asphalt was 1.9591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. In August, the net import reached the lowest level in recent years. [49] 3. Asphalt Downstream - Asphalt downstream demand is mainly in road construction and maintenance (about 70%), building waterproofing (about 20%), and ship fuel and coking (about 10%). [52] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 3.3%, continuing to decline. The cumulative sales volume of pavers was 1,120 units, a year - on - year increase of 36.58%. [57] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset infrastructure investment was 5.42%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity dropped from 3.2% in January - July 2025 to 2.0% in January - August 2025. [59] - From January to July 2025, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. The issuance progress of new local bonds is higher than that in 2024 but lower than that in 2023. It is expected that the special bonds will increase significantly from September to October. [62] - In Q3, the downstream main - road modified asphalt strengthened seasonally but not as much as in previous years. As of September 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries increased, but they were still at relatively low levels compared to previous years. [66] 4. Asphalt Inventory - As of September 26, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.7%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. [71] - As of September 26, the asphalt social inventory decreased by 3.50% week - on - week to 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The factory inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week to 698,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.74%. The overall inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to previous years. [76]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's population has remained stable, with improvements in population quality, stable employment, and steady growth in residents' income, providing foundational support for high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total population of China is projected to be 1,408.28 million, ranking among the highest in the world. The urban population is expected to reach 943.50 million, with an urbanization rate of 67.00%, an increase of 3.11 percentage points since the end of 2020 [3] Group 3 - The employment situation is generally stable, with continued growth in urban employment. The average urban survey unemployment rate is expected to be 5.1% by the end of 2024, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 2020. The third industry has shown enhanced employment absorption capacity, with an increase of 600,000 jobs since 2020, raising its share of total employment by 1.1 percentage points [6] Group 4 - Residents' income has shown stable growth, with the per capita disposable income expected to reach 41,314 yuan in 2024, an increase of 9,125 yuan since 2020. After adjusting for price factors, the average annual real growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 5.5%, in line with GDP growth [9] Group 5 - In terms of expenditure, development-oriented consumption in education, culture, entertainment, transportation, communication, and healthcare is expected to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 10.0% from 2021 to 2024. Service consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.5%, outpacing goods consumption expenditure by 3.8 percentage points [11]