封面专题： "十四五"回顾与"十五五"前瞻 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。习近平总书记在党的二十届三中 全会第二次全体会议上强调，要总结评估"十四五"规划落实情况，切实搞好"十五五"规划前期谋划工 作。2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，要扎实推动高质量发展，高质量完成"十四五"规划目标 任务，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 回顾"十四五"，国内外发展环境发生重大深刻变化，面对复杂严峻的国际、国内环境，我国坚持稳中求 进 总基调，强化宏观政策统筹协调，推动高质量发展取得新突破：国内生产总值（GDP）跨过120万亿 元台 阶，内需对经济增长的贡献率提高，居民消费持续恢复增长，投资、贸易、金融领域发展动力和 活力增强， 新质生产力加快形成，数字经济和实体经济深度融合，经济金融领域风险有效化解，经济 社会高质量新发展 格局迈出重要步伐。 前瞻"十五五"，这是我国应对百年变局、塑造战略优势的关键时期，是开启全面建设社会主义现代化国 家 新征程后，为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化进一步夯实基础的重要阶段。在这个关键阶段，要把 稳定经 济增长放在更加突出重要位置，要尽快 ...

Economic Growth and Achievements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen 99% of its 102 major projects and over 5,000 specific projects completed ahead of schedule [1] - China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 31.42 trillion yuan from 2020, with an expected economic increment exceeding 30 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The average GDP growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 8.6%, 3.1%, 5.4%, and 5.0%, consistently higher than the global average [2] Industrial Development - The modern industrial system has made significant progress, with the primary industry maintaining steady growth and the secondary and tertiary industries contributing the most to GDP [4] - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 7.7% and 8.9% respectively in 2024, surpassing the overall industrial growth rates [4] Emerging Industries - The "Three New" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) accounted for over 18% of GDP in 2024, with China leading globally in several sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable energy installations [5][6] - The digital economy's core industries contributed approximately 10% to GDP, achieving the targets set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" ahead of schedule [5][6] Trade and Export Performance - In 2024, China's total goods import and export volume reached 43.85 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years [7] - The export of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 15.12 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.43% of total exports, with significant growth in high-end equipment exports [7] - Cross-border e-commerce saw explosive growth, with imports and exports reaching 2.63 trillion yuan in 2024, a 55% increase from 2020 [8] Regional Trade Dynamics - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of 190.71 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a shift in trade dynamics and alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [8]

Core Insights - The newly constructed Yuxia High-Speed Railway from Chongqing East to Qianjiang has officially entered the trial operation phase and is expected to open in the first half of this year, marking it as the first high-speed rail line to be inaugurated this year [1][2] - In the first quarter of this year, national railway investment reached 131.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, surpassing the growth rate of national fixed asset investment by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a strong push in major infrastructure projects as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1][8] - A total of at least 14 high-speed rail projects are anticipated to be operational within the year, collectively spanning nearly 3,000 kilometers, with significant contributions from provinces like Liaoning and Guizhou achieving the "city-to-city high-speed rail" goal [1][2][11] Investment and Economic Impact - The railway investment growth rate is higher than the national fixed asset investment growth rate, making it a crucial driver for economic growth [8][19] - From 2020 to 2024, the new railway lines put into operation are projected to reach 4,933 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for 2,521 kilometers in 2020 and gradually decreasing in subsequent years [8][11] - The completion of 14 high-speed rail projects this year is expected to significantly increase the newly operational high-speed rail mileage compared to last year [11][19] Regional Development and Connectivity - The current high-speed rail construction wave emphasizes regional coordination and network enhancement, with projects like the Yangtze River High-Speed Railway strengthening the economic belt and promoting a new development pattern [12][16] - The completion of the Xiyan High-Speed Railway will end the history of Fushun not having high-speed rail, making Liaoning the first province to achieve "city-to-city high-speed rail" status this year [17][18] - The "city-to-city high-speed rail" initiative is expected to accelerate the flow of resources and talent to underdeveloped areas, enhancing local economies and tourism [18] Future Outlook - The National Railway Group plans to implement a strong network and chain action to scientifically and orderly advance railway planning and construction, ensuring the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [22] - Major provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, and others are actively planning significant investments in transportation infrastructure, with projected investments reaching billions of yuan [21][22] - The opening of high-speed rail lines is anticipated to have a substantial impact on local economies, although past issues such as remote stations and insufficient passenger flow need to be addressed for sustainable development [22]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Military Industry Industry Overview - The military industry, particularly the upstream electronic components sector, is experiencing a positive recovery trend, with significant order increases observed in companies like Hongda Electronics and Lili Electric [3][4][5] - The military industry has shown upward changes since early 2020, with a notable increase in orders for upstream components and mechanical processing companies [3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Order Growth**: Hongda Electronics reported a month-on-month order increase to 240 million yuan in February 2025, up from 150 million yuan in the same month last year, indicating a fundamental change in downstream demand [4][5] - **Driving Factors**: The surge in foreign trade demand and the rigid requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan are the main drivers of this growth, with foreign orders expected to significantly increase from the second half of 2024 [3][4][5] - **Sustained Demand**: The military industry's large-scale procurement needs are a fundamental logic, with expectations for ammunition demand to exceed historical peaks by 2025 and maintain high levels in 2026 [7][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: Three categories of military stocks are suggested for investment: - Blue-chip stocks with strong performance capabilities (e.g., Fuhua, AVIC Optoelectronics) [9] - Controversial stocks that present investment opportunities (e.g., Optoelectronic Aviation Equipment) [9] - Dark horse stocks with significant expectation gaps (e.g., chip companies Chengdu Huamei, Tianjin Equipment) [9] Notable Companies and Their Prospects - **Chengdu Huamei**: This company has enhanced its product capabilities in both digital and analog chips, launching new products for AI computing. It is positioned as a leading player in the domestic market [11][12][15] - **Tianjin Equipment**: A dark horse in the missile sector, this company has a strong market share in missile packaging and related materials, with expectations for high growth in the next 2-3 years [14][16] - **Philihua**: Holds a monopoly in the quartz fiber sector, with strong pricing power and significant growth potential expected in 2025 [9] Sector-Specific Insights - **Deep Sea Sector**: The deep-sea field is a key focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with investment opportunities in titanium alloy companies involved in underwater equipment construction, such as Western Materials and Baotai Co. [10] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The military industry is expected to maintain high prosperity levels, with a positive outlook on order and contract sustainability due to stable budget execution and increased demand from various military sectors [6][7][8] Conclusion - The military industry is poised for significant growth driven by external demand and strategic planning, making it a compelling area for investment. Key players in the electronic components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with specific companies highlighted as strong investment candidates.