俄罗斯6月失业率2.2%，符合预期。 ...

俄罗斯6月失业率2.2%，符合市场预期。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 按照Timiraos的说法，美联储内部的分化可以清晰地划分为三个主要阵营：中间的谨慎派、急于降息的 少数派，以及更保守的等待派。 中间派的代表包括旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly），她在爱达荷州的一次会议上表示： "通胀前景一直过于不稳定，无法证明先发制人地降息以应对经济疲软是合理的。" 但她同时指出，由于利率仍处于紧缩水平，"你不能永 ...

Core Insights - As of June 2025, Croatia's employment reached 1.75 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - The registered unemployment rate stands at 3.8% [1] Employment Data - The number of employees in legal entities is 1,499,127, with a month-on-month growth of 0.7% [1] - Compared to June 2024, the employment in legal entities has increased by 0.1% [1] - From January to June 2025, the employment in legal entities grew by 1.2% year-on-year [1]

SHMET 网讯：美联储的官员们普遍预期最终需要恢复降息，只是尚未准备在本周三采取行动。分歧的核心在于：他们需要首先看到哪些经济证据？等 待这些信号明朗化是否会酿成错误？ 今年早些时候，当特朗普的关税政策引发通胀回升担忧时，美联储官员曾团结一致暂停降息。但随着关税引发的价格上涨比许多人所担心的更为温和， 且就业市场显现疲软迹象，利率制定委员会的官员们现已分裂成三大阵营，就是否重启宽松展开激辩。 沃勒两周前在纽约演讲时公开阐述降息理由。他至少向一位同僚透露，事先已私下向鲍威尔表明将在本周会议持异议。他认为6月微降的失业率掩盖了 私营部门招聘疲软，这与特朗普主张降息的逻辑不同——其前提是经济实际并不强劲。"如果考虑9月降息，还在等什么？现在就行动以避免劳动力市场恶 化，"沃勒如是说。 辩论另一端是第三类美联储官员，他们鉴于潜在价格上涨压力，希望看到实质性经济疲软证据再行降息。官员们注意到，当前实际征收关税远低于特朗 普宣布的税率，意味着随着海关执法和企业定价决策跟进政策宣示，价格压力可能在夏季累积。 这批官员对预设9月降息保持警惕，因为决策时点可能恰逢价格压力最严峻时刻。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克担忧，在通胀多年占 ...

西班牙第二季度失业率 10.29%，预期10.7%，前值11.36%。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is adopting a "cautious and gradual" approach to monetary policy easing, as stated by RBA Governor Michele Bullock [1] - Despite a surprising rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, other indicators such as job vacancy rates remain stable, suggesting a balanced labor market [1][2] - Financial markets are betting on two more rate cuts this year, with the probability of a third cut dropping from 76% to 40% [2] Group 2 - The RBA has already cut rates twice in the current cycle, bringing the cash rate down to 3.85% [2] - Bullock indicated that the core inflation rate for the second quarter may not reach the RBA's forecast of 2.6% [3] - The expectation is that inflation will gradually decline to 2.5%, but the RBA is awaiting data to support this prediction [4]

Market Influence - Over a decade ago, Chinese economic indicators held little sway in overseas investment decisions, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) being the primary exception [1] - Currently, the focus on China's economic data, including CPI, M2, imports/exports, and unemployment rate, is second only to that of the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicates a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing a measured monetary policy response amid slight labor market easing and rising unemployment concerns [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The RBA is adopting a restrained and gradual approach to monetary policy easing, which is deemed appropriate given the current economic conditions [1] - Lowe reassures that the recent increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% in June is not surprising and aligns with expectations of a labor market slowdown [1] - The RBA continues to evaluate the appropriateness of a gradual easing of monetary policy, with second-quarter inflation data potentially being slightly stronger than anticipated [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The long-term strategy of the RBA is to bring inflation back to target levels while preserving labor market growth as much as possible [1] - Lowe suggests that Australia's interest rates are unlikely to rise as sharply as in other economies, indicating that significant rate cuts may not be necessary during the easing process [1]