澳洲联储：地缘政治不确定性依然突出，在 "贸易战" 情景下，失业率或将攀升至近 6%。 ...

澳洲联储下调核心国内通胀预测，预计失业率将略有上升。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：关税可能会推高通胀和失业率。 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 金融对实体经济支持的力度仍然较大—— 2025 年 4 月社融数据点评 2025-05-17 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本 ...

Economic Overview - In the first four months of 2023, multiple economic indicators showed a year-on-year growth acceleration compared to Q1, indicating stable growth in production and demand, overall stable employment, and the accumulation of new growth drivers [1][4] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to Q1 [4] Industrial Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 0.9 percentage points [2] - Among 41 major industries, 36 experienced year-on-year growth, indicating a broad growth base [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 10% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2][3] New Growth Drivers - In April, production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles surged by 38.9% and 61.8% respectively, showcasing rapid growth in smart products [3] - The manufacturing value added of smart drones and smart vehicle-mounted equipment increased by 74.2% and 29.3% respectively, far exceeding the overall industrial growth rate [3] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [7] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate for January to April was 5.2%, consistent with the same period last year [7] Investment Trends - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with a 0.10% month-on-month increase in April [5][6] - The focus on improving and safeguarding livelihoods, along with significant regional strategies, is expected to drive sustained investment growth [6]

法国第一季度ILO失业率 7.4%，预期7.40%，前值7.30%。 ...

法国一季度ILO失业率 7.4%，预期 7.4%，前值 7.3%。 ...

智通财经5月16日电，法国第一季度ILO失业率为7.4%，预期7.40%，前值7.30%。 ...

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：以我为主，内外兼修 国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深刻认 识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国 内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行 稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。目前，国家出台了一系列稳增长、调结构、促改 革的政策措施。我们也注意到，国内消费市场呈现出稳步增长的态势，这表明国 内经济基本面依然稳健。海外宏观方面，全球经济复苏的不均衡性愈发明显。美 国经济表现强劲，失业率降至历史低点，但通胀压力依然存在。欧洲则面临能源 危机和供应链瓶颈的双重挑战，经济增长乏力。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最 新报告中下调了全球经济增长预期，强调各国需加强政策协调，以应对不确定性。 重点品种：原油，航运，黄金 原油：市场预期美国和伊朗可能很快就其核项目达成协议，国际能源署认为今年 石油市场平衡更为宽松，国际油价继续下跌。美伊核协议的前景预计将对石油市 场产生深远影响。美国全国广播公司新闻台 14 日报道， 哈梅内伊的政治顾问沙 姆哈尼在接受该台采访时表示，作 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review [1] - Key Point 2: France's ILO unemployment rate for Q1 will be released at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for March will be published at 17:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The U.S. will report the annualized number of new housing starts for April at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The total number of building permits in the U.S. for April will also be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. import price index month-on-month for April will be reported at 20:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: The preliminary one-year inflation expectations for May in the U.S. will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 2: The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for May will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the U.S. for the week ending May 16 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]