Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [1]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [1]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [2][3]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [2]. - The alignment of views among influential Fed officials, including Powell, Williams, and Governor Waller, suggests a strong consensus for a new round of easing [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the rising consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [5]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policies are tight or loose, with some officials worried about the strong performance of capital markets [5][6]. - The conflicting phenomenon of a weak labor market alongside strong consumer spending remains a point of confusion for all Fed officials [6]. Group 4: Decision-Making Context - The upcoming Fed meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting access to the latest employment and inflation data [8]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" may be emphasized, suggesting that any rate cut would be a precautionary measure while the Fed observes economic reactions [8]. - Officials opposing the rate cut signal that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [8].

Key Points - The article highlights the mixed signals in the economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating both recovery and challenges in different sectors [2][4][14] - US non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over five years [13][45] - Eurozone's composite PMI remained stable, but manufacturing showed signs of contraction [14] - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q3, with core CPI showing an increasing trend [14] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September non-farm employment data was better than expected, with a growth of 119,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% [13] - October existing home sales in the US reached a new eight-month high, increasing by 1.2% from September [13] - November's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US hit a four-month low at 51.9 [13] - Eurozone's November composite PMI was stable at 52.4, with service PMI at its best performance in a year and a half [14] - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis, with core CPI rising by 3% in October [14] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The WEI index in the US rose to 2.29, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][17] - Germany's WAI index also increased to 0.13, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [5][17] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% for the week ending November 14, up from 5.9% the previous week [19] - Mortgage rates in the US rose to 6.26% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, with mortgage applications declining by 5.2% [23] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 295.58, down 2.2% from the previous week [30] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.94 per gallon, reflecting a rise of 0.4% from the previous week [37] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with respective indices dropping to 0.267 and 1.028 [8][33] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed widening swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [36] Group 6: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 220,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.974 million [27]

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increased by 0.12 percentage points in September, rising from 4.32% in August to 4.44%, nearing the Fed's year-end forecast of 4.5%[12] - Non-farm payrolls showed a significant fluctuation, with September's job growth only at 119,000, indicating a potential underestimation of employment weakness[8] - The persistent rise in unemployment suggests that the labor supply is not as weak as previously thought, contradicting the low job growth figures seen in recent months[12] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following the October FOMC meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in December dropped to below 30%[5] - The current baseline scenario anticipates a rate cut in December, with potential quarterly cuts in the first half of next year, reaching a cycle endpoint of 3%-3.25%[30] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion is expected to be clarified as early as the March meeting next year, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liquidity for the U.S. economy[30] Group 3: Market Implications - If the Fed does not cut rates in December, there is a risk of further weakening in the real economy and increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, particularly in the AI narrative[29] - The divergence in monetary policy expectations may lead to one of the most fragmented FOMC decisions in history, reflecting political influences on the Fed's decisions[30] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital outflows from the dollar[31]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with implications for the consumer sector and overall economic outlook [3][6]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped from 53.6 in October to 51, marking a historical low [3][6]. - The current conditions index fell by 7.5 points to 51.1, also a record low [3][6]. - Consumer assessments of personal financial situations have decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers citing high prices as a negative impact on their finances [6][10]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector in the U.S. stock market has faced significant sell-offs, with the essential consumer goods sector declining at three times the rate of the S&P 500 index since October [3][4]. - Non-essential consumer goods have also seen a 5.2% decline, making it one of the worst-performing sectors in the market during this period [4][6]. - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both essential and non-essential consumer sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [4][5]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, making it a critical variable despite current market focus on companies like Nvidia [6]. - The article notes that consumer sentiment is deteriorating, with 69% of consumers expecting unemployment rates to rise, up from 64% in October [6][10]. - The disparity in financial health among different income groups is widening, with wealthier consumers maintaining spending while those without stock assets are experiencing worsening financial conditions [10].

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low for the current conditions index at 51.1, which fell by 7.5 points [1][3] - Consumers' assessment of their personal financial situation decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers mentioning high prices negatively impacting their finances, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase in this sentiment [3][4] - Expectations regarding the job market worsened, with 69% of consumers anticipating a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 64% in October, more than double the 32% from November last year [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance of Consumer Sectors - The consumer sectors in the U.S. stock market have faced significant declines, with the essential consumer goods sector dropping three times more than the S&P 500 index since October, while the non-essential consumer goods sector fell by 5.2%, making them the worst-performing sectors [2][3] - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both non-essential and essential consumer goods sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [2][3] Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, indicating that consumer activity is a critical variable despite market focus on companies like Nvidia [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted food assistance and affected many federal employees' pay, contributing to consumer frustration regarding high prices and shrinking incomes [4][5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since July 2020, with initial claims for unemployment insurance reaching a four-year high, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations experienced a dramatic reversal within a single day, influenced by key economic data and internal policy disagreements among Fed officials [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - On November 21, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 35.4%, but after comments from New York Fed President John Williams, it surged to approximately 70% [1][3]. - The fluctuations in rate cut expectations have led to volatility in financial markets, with significant impacts on stock indices and the strength of the US dollar [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Insights - The US Labor Department reported that September's non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since April [2]. - Despite the strong job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and previous months' job growth figures were revised downwards, indicating potential concerns for the Fed [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, expressed caution regarding a potential rate cut in December, citing stagnation in inflation as a key concern [3]. - The internal divisions within the Fed are highlighted by the contrasting views on employment data and inflation, complicating the decision-making process [2][4]. Group 4: Economic Data Release Delays - Due to a prior government shutdown, the release of the October non-farm payroll report has been delayed, which may hinder the Fed's ability to make informed decisions during the December meeting [4]. - The upcoming release of previously delayed economic data could lead to further adjustments in market expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant internal divide regarding whether to cut interest rates in December, with differing opinions among its members leading to a complex decision-making environment [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - The FOMC is divided into three camps: dovish members favoring rate cuts to support the labor market, hawkish members concerned about inflation, and moderate members advocating for patience [3][11]. - Vice Chairman Jefferson's recent comments highlight the dual risks of persistent inflation and weakening employment, complicating the policy response [3]. Group 2: Lack of Key Economic Data - The absence of critical economic data, such as the October non-farm payroll report and the CPI, creates an "information vacuum" for the Federal Reserve ahead of its December meeting [5]. - The delay in the release of the November non-farm report until after the Fed's decision adds to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the implied probability dropping from 90% to around 30% in recent weeks [7]. - Concerns over inflation have led to a significant decrease in the market's consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut, reflecting a shift in sentiment among traders [7]. Group 4: Political Pressure - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has publicly called for a rate cut, citing the negative impact of the government shutdown on economic growth [9]. - Hassett predicts a 1.5 percentage point decline in GDP due to the shutdown, arguing that now is not the right time for the Fed to pause rate cuts [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with ongoing divisions among officials likely to persist [13]. - The potential for a decline in interest rates remains, but the timing may be adjusted based on evolving economic conditions and inflation trends [13][15].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 11822, opening at 12065 and reporting a decrease of 3.23% to 11737, with a high of 12145 and a low of 11718, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The latest silver futures analysis shows a strong bearish sentiment, with a recent low of 11912 and a closing price around 11760, suggesting a focus on downward movement, with resistance levels at 12000-12500 and support levels at 11700-11500 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate for September recorded at 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the forecast of 50,000 [2] - The report indicates that the labor market remains stable but slow, with companies hesitant to hire or lay off employees amid economic fluctuations caused by aggressive policy actions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September significantly exceeded market expectations, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates next month [1] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, indicated that the government shutdown is expected to negatively impact Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points [1] - The strong employment report for September is not sufficient to offset other negative factors affecting the economy [1] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed better-than-expected inflation, which is currently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - There are concerns that lowering interest rates to support the labor market could prolong the high inflation cycle and increase risk appetite in financial markets [3] Employment Trends - The employment growth in September followed a downward revision of August's job gains from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000 [1] - The recent trend shows fluctuations in job growth, with negative job additions in June, followed by increases in July and September [1] - Most job growth has been in the healthcare and education sectors, but the construction industry is also seeing an increase in jobs due to new factory openings driven by tax incentives [1][4] Unemployment Rate - Despite the significant job growth, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, attributed to an increase in labor force participation as more individuals begin to seek employment [1][4]