Group 1: Overall Economic Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session aligns with market expectations, emphasizing technology transfer to industry, reform through openness, and improving people's livelihoods while maintaining national security[4] - The economic goal of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 remains consistent with the long-term vision[6] Group 2: Industrial Policy - Industrial policy has shifted from focusing on technological breakthroughs to emphasizing the implementation of industry, now prioritized as the first order of business[4] - The focus is on integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to form scalable industrial chains, moving beyond merely overcoming technical barriers[7] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - High-level openness has been elevated from the ninth to the fifth priority, reflecting a significant shift in focus amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.[4] - The emphasis on sharing opportunities and strengthening cooperation with non-U.S. countries is a response to recent trade disputes[8] Group 4: Social Policies - Social policies have been prioritized, moving from the tenth to the ninth position, highlighting the importance of improving income distribution and facilitating social mobility[4] - Key measures include breaking down barriers to labor mobility and increasing the share of labor factors in income distribution to boost consumer spending[10] Group 5: Reform Focus - The reform agenda emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the marketization of factor allocation, addressing issues of fair competition and market pricing[11] - The absence of direct references to "anti-involution" suggests a focus on structural reforms rather than immediate measures[11] Group 6: National Security - National security has become a focal point, with repeated mentions in the session, particularly regarding the stability of the manufacturing sector and the importance of technological self-reliance[12] - The commitment to maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and enhancing support for original innovation and key technologies is expected to continue[12] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - Unlike previous sessions, there was no mention of fiscal reform, indicating a potentially cautious approach to fiscal policy adjustments moving forward[13] - The need for further clarification on macroeconomic governance systems suggests that fiscal reforms may still be on the agenda but are not prioritized at this time[13] Group 8: Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, discrepancies in the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and unexpected geopolitical changes[14]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the strategic directions and key initiatives for the next five years as articulated in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the construction of a modern economic system. Group 1: High-Quality Development - Significant achievements in high-quality development have been noted, with improvements in social civilization and living standards [3] - The focus is on consolidating and expanding the foundation of the real economy, promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development [5] Group 2: Technological Self-Reliance - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces, enhancing the national innovation system, and fostering original innovation [7] - The integration of technology innovation with industrial innovation is prioritized to boost overall productivity [7] Group 3: Domestic Market and Economic Structure - The strategy aims to expand domestic demand, enhance consumption, and promote effective investment, ensuring a robust domestic circulation [9] - The construction of a high-level socialist market economy is essential for sustaining high-quality development [11] Group 4: Agricultural Modernization - Addressing agricultural and rural issues is a top priority, with efforts to promote urban-rural integration and enhance agricultural productivity [15][17] Group 5: Regional Development - The strategy includes optimizing regional economic layouts to promote coordinated regional development and enhance the effectiveness of urbanization [19] Group 6: Cultural Development - There is a commitment to invigorating cultural innovation and promoting socialist culture, enhancing the influence of Chinese civilization [21] Group 7: Social Welfare and Common Prosperity - The focus is on improving living standards and ensuring common prosperity through effective social policies and public services [23] Group 8: Green Transformation - A comprehensive green transformation is planned, emphasizing carbon neutrality and ecological safety, while promoting sustainable development practices [25] Group 9: National Security - Strengthening the national security system and enhancing public safety governance are critical components of the strategy [27][29] Group 10: Military Modernization - The modernization of the military is highlighted, focusing on enhancing combat capabilities and integrating advanced technologies [32]

中金研究 党的二十届四中全会于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行，会议公报于10月23日发布，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》[1]。中国的2035远期目标并未变化，但相比"十四五"规划发布时，当前的发展条件发生了若干变化，我 们以三个方面为例。一是自主科技创新取得了显著进步，积累了丰富经验；二是房地产调整，经济结构改善，但需求偏弱；三是地缘环境 发生深刻调整。面对这些变化，"十五五"规划也将进行相应调整。比如，1）提高对科技创新的要求（抢占科技发展制高点）；2）强调扩 大内需 ； 3）把开放提到了更加靠前的位置。这些方向有助于我们理解"十五五"规划的主线。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？请听中金公司总量及行业为您联合解读。 宏观：新环境下的三条主线 "十四五"是中国金融周期见顶转向、经济加速转型的关键时期。 金融周期是指房价和信贷互相加强而形成的大周期，金融周期调整后，经济 发展模式由较多依赖房地产和传统基建转向更加依靠新经济的发展模式。"十四五"期间经济增速下行压力加大，但经济结构得以改善，经济发 展的质量得到提高。《第二十届中央委员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商策略 highlights four key sectors to focus on until the draft proposal is released, based on the recent plenary session communiqué [1] Group 1: Key Sectors - The first sector is related to the "Strong Aerospace Nation" strategy, which includes areas such as commercial aerospace [1] - The second sector involves marine-related fields, particularly deep-sea technology [1] - The third sector focuses on themes related to foreign openness, especially following the significant elevation of related policies, such as the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] - The fourth sector pertains to areas that may see increased policy support in the fourth quarter [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report compares the core contents of the communiqués of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, covering aspects such as past achievements, development environment, guiding ideology, principles, main goals, and specific strategies for different fields [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Past Achievements - The 2025 plenary session highly evaluated the great achievements in China's development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, with the economy, technology, and comprehensive national strength reaching new levels and a good start for the second - centenary goal. The 2020 plenary session highly evaluated the decisive achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects [1] Development Environment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period will face a complex and changing development environment with both strategic opportunities and risks. China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and the long - term positive trend remains unchanged. In 2020, China had shifted to a high - quality development stage with many advantages for continued development, but also faced problems such as unbalanced and insufficient development [1] Guiding Ideology - Both emphasize adhering to the Party's leadership, the new development concept, and the general keynote of making progress while maintaining stability. The 2025 session focuses on promoting high - quality development with reform and innovation as the driving force and meeting people's needs as the goal, and comprehensively and strictly governing the Party as the guarantee. The 2020 session emphasized deepening supply - side structural reform [1] Principles - Both stress adhering to the Party's overall leadership, the people - centered approach, high - quality development, and reform. The 2025 session also mentions the combination of an effective market and an active government, and coordinating development and security [1] Main Goals - In 2025, significant achievements are expected in high - quality development, reform, social civilization, ecological civilization, people's livelihood, and national governance. By 2035, China's economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength will be greatly enhanced, and basic socialist modernization will be achieved [1] Industry System - Both emphasize focusing on the real economy, building manufacturing, quality, and network powers. The 2025 session also mentions promoting digital China construction, developing strategic emerging industries, and optimizing traditional industries [1] Science and Technology - Both highlight the core position of innovation. The 2025 session focuses on seizing the opportunity of the technological revolution, promoting the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talents, and strengthening original innovation and key core technology research [1] Domestic Market - Both advocate expanding domestic demand and combining it with supply - side reform. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting consumption and investment through new demand and supply, and enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic cycle [1] Economic System - Both stress improving the socialist market economic system, giving play to the market's decisive role and the government's role. The 2025 session also mentions establishing a modern fiscal and financial system and accelerating the transformation of government functions [1] Opening - up - Both advocate high - level opening - up. The 2025 session emphasizes expanding independent opening - up, promoting trade innovation, and high - quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Rural Issues - Both prioritize solving "Three Rural Issues" and promoting rural revitalization. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting rural modernization, ensuring food security, and implementing rural construction actions [1] Regional Development - Both aim to optimize regional economic layout and promote coordinated development. The 2025 session focuses on leveraging the effects of relevant strategies and enhancing regional development coordination [1] Culture - Both adhere to the guiding position of Marxism in the ideological field and promote cultural development. The 2025 session emphasizes developing a new - era socialist culture with international influence [1] People's Livelihood - Both focus on improving people's livelihood and promoting common prosperity. The 2025 session emphasizes solving people's urgent problems, promoting high - quality employment, and improving the social security system [1] Green Development - Both uphold the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and promote green transformation. The 2025 session emphasizes carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and building a new energy system [1] National Security - Both adhere to the overall national security concept and strengthen national security construction. The 2025 session emphasizes integrating security into all fields of development and preventing various risks [1] National Defense - Both aim to modernize national defense and the military. The 2025 session focuses on accelerating the integration of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, and improving combat capabilities [1] Party Building - Both emphasize the Party's overall leadership and strengthening Party building. The 2025 session focuses on enhancing the Party's leadership ability in economic and social development [1] National Reunification - Both aim to maintain the long - term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macao, promote cross - strait relations, and achieve national reunification [1]

央视网消息：港珠澳大桥自2018年10月23日正式开通以来，已成为粤港澳三地融合发展的重要纽带。7年间，经珠海公路口岸往来三地的旅客数量超 9334万人次，车辆累计逾1942万辆次。 随着内地赴港澳"个人游"城市扩容、"一签多行""一周一行"政策落地，跨城旅游线路广受欢迎，今年以来内地旅客查验量超1015万人次，其中持港澳旅 游签注者超460万人次，均创同期新高。2023 年"澳车北上""港车北上" 政策先后实施，目前边检备案港澳司机超19.9 万人、车辆超16.4 万辆，港澳居民自驾 "北上" 需求大幅增长。 七年来，经港珠澳大桥珠海公路口岸进出口总值累计1.24万亿元，月均进出口值从开通初41亿元升至今年超254亿元，增长超5倍。货物收发地覆盖内地 31省区市及200多个国家和地区。 七年来，港珠澳大桥实现了从"物理联通"到"经济融合""民生互通"的跨越，成为我国推动区域协调发展、扩大对外开放的标志性成果。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active participation of Linyi Commercial Bank at the Third International Purchasing Conference, showcasing its international financial service capabilities and addressing the new demands and challenges faced by foreign trade enterprises in Linyi [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Linyi Commercial Bank organized a professional service team to present its settlement and financing products at the conference [1] - The bank engaged in face-to-face communication to gain insights into the current needs of Linyi's foreign trade enterprises [1] - The bank plans to continue innovating financial products and optimizing service processes to support Linyi's development as a new highland for opening up to the outside world [1]

Economic Growth - China's GDP is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2023, up from 103 trillion yuan in 2020, achieving an increment of over 35 trillion yuan in five years, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The average annual economic growth rate is 5.5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [1] Innovation and Technology - Research and development investment intensity is expected to increase to 2.68% in 2024, surpassing the overall level of the European Union [1] - Significant technological achievements include the successful commercial flight of the C919 aircraft and advancements in human-like robots and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has increased by 4 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced confidence from government initiatives such as childcare subsidies and pension increases [2] - New consumption trends are emerging in areas like sports tourism and cultural experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer willingness to spend [2] Renewable Energy and Green Transition - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with total electricity consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours [2] - The country leads globally in the ownership, production, and charging infrastructure of electric vehicles [2] Global Trade and Cultural Influence - China's total goods trade has exceeded 40 trillion yuan, showcasing an expanding global trade network [2] - Chinese cultural products, such as the animated film "Nezha," have achieved significant international success, indicating a growing global cultural influence [2][3] Investment Sentiment - Several international investment banks have upgraded their ratings on Chinese assets to "overweight," leading to increased foreign capital inflow into China [3] - The ongoing economic momentum is viewed as a starting point for future growth, with expectations for continued positive developments in the upcoming five-year plan [3]

Market Review - Since October, global risk events have increased, including the potential U.S. government shutdown, heightened political uncertainty in Japan, and escalating China-U.S. trade tensions, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. Precious metals have strengthened while oil prices have declined, with Hong Kong stocks experiencing a greater drop than A-shares and U.S. stocks due to the strong U.S. dollar and international capital flow impacts. A-shares have shown characteristics of risk-averse trading, evidenced by a decrease in trading volume, with daily turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, and a style shift where previously strong sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market have seen significant adjustments while defensive dividend indices have risen [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of cherishing quality assets, predicting a gradual recovery in the market starting in late October. Recent signals from U.S. trade representatives indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with expectations for some consensus to be reached during upcoming economic discussions and the APEC summit. This contrasts with the previous widespread declines in April, as the current trade situation reflects a shift in capital flows rather than a broad market downturn. Overall, financing and ETF funds continue to see net inflows, suggesting that micro liquidity in the stock market remains relatively abundant. The construction of a "stabilizing mechanism" in the capital market and improvements in investor return systems are highlighted as key features of this market cycle, supporting the notion of a sustained "slow bull" market in A-shares, which are currently viewed as not overly expensive [2][3]. Key Focus Areas 1. The U.S. government has released signals indicating a potential easing of trade tensions, with discussions between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders suggesting a possible return to "TACO" trading dynamics. This could lead to a recovery in capital market risk appetite [2]. 2. Positive domestic and international factors are expected to support the market, with the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting likely to address various themes such as new productivity, green development, and external openness, potentially catalyzing investment opportunities. Additionally, a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a stable U.S. dollar index are anticipated to provide further support [3]. 3. The recent market style shift, characterized by a decline in tech-heavy indices and a rise in defensive dividend stocks, reflects a defensive positioning by investors amid reduced trading volumes. The report attributes the tech sector's adjustment to several factors, including increased trading congestion and profit-taking amid rising risk aversion due to trade tensions [4][5]. Industry Configuration - The report suggests that the current valuation fluctuations in the tech sector do not indicate a permanent style shift. Upcoming events, including the Central Committee meeting and the release of quarterly reports, are expected to boost market sentiment and catalyze thematic trading. The report notes that growth sectors like TMT continue to show relative performance advantages, while cyclical sectors lack fundamental support due to ongoing negative PPI trends. The report anticipates that once market structures stabilize, the focus will likely return to growth and technology investments, with a recommendation to pay attention to "mergers and acquisitions" as a theme [5][6].

Core Insights - Shanxi province is actively enhancing its international trade and investment landscape through industrial upgrades, expanded channels, and institutional innovations, resulting in a significant increase in foreign investment and export activities [2][5][12] Group 1: Trade and Export Growth - In the first eight months of the year, Shanxi had 1,962 enterprises engaged in import and export activities, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase with a net addition of 207 companies [2] - The province's actual foreign investment reached $417.54 million in the first half of the year, reflecting a 46.65% year-on-year growth, showcasing the increasing openness of inland provinces [2][5] - Companies like Jin Energy Photovoltaic are successfully exporting products to over 50 countries, with an expected export value of 120 million yuan in 2024 [3] Group 2: Diverse Export Matrix - Shanxi's export portfolio is diversifying, with local agricultural products and high-end manufacturing goods gaining traction in international markets [4] - Traditional crafts, such as glassware and ceramics, are also seeing increased demand overseas, with significant portions of their production being exported to regions like the Middle East and Europe [4] Group 3: Infrastructure and Logistics Development - Shanxi is enhancing its logistics capabilities with the establishment of multiple international logistics hubs and the operation of over 800 China-Europe freight trains, connecting to numerous international cities [6][8] - The province has developed a multi-modal transport network, integrating land, sea, and air routes to facilitate smoother trade operations [7][8] Group 4: Policy and Institutional Support - Shanxi has implemented various policies to attract foreign investment, including the establishment of service platforms for foreign enterprises and the promotion of a favorable business environment [5][10] - The province is actively pursuing the establishment of a free trade zone and has replicated successful experiences from other regions to enhance its open economy [11][12]