《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"扩大优质消费品和服务供 给""以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费……" 最后，服务消费是稳就业的大市场。 服务业是吸纳就业的重要领域。来自国家发展改革委的数据显示，今年前三季度，我国居民人均服务性 消费支出占人均消费支出的比重提升至46.8%。就业容量大的服务消费保持较高速度的增长，也从侧面 证明了其对就业稳定的贡献。就业稳，收入增，居民的消费意愿就会提升。 "服务消费增势良好"，这是商务部消费促进司负责人日前的评价。而在稍早前，国家统计局新闻发言人 称，"我国居民消费正在加快转型，服务消费增长日益成为居民消费的重要增长点"。今年1—10月份， 服务零售额同比增长5.3%，快于商品零售额增速。 现在，已经进入发展快车道的服务消费，将责无旁贷承担起扩内需促消费的重任，成为推动经济高质量 发展新动能的重要组成部分。 其次，服务消费是创新融合的试验场。 "业态融合"是扩大服务消费的核心之一。"融"什么，"合"什么，这是重点。笔者认为，在当前新一轮技 术革命的加持下，在产业转型升级的趋势下，在新消费群体更强调个性的需求下，服务消费的产品和模 式势 ...

■闫立良 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"扩大优质消费品和服务供 给""以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费……" 服务消费，一头连着经济发展，是国内生产总值的重要组成部分，一头连着民生保障，影响着居民的幸 福指数。因此，在扩内需促消费的大背景下，从2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议确定2025年要"创新 多元化消费场景，扩大服务消费"开始，有关服务消费的工作要求就频繁出现在各种场合和文件中，而 有关促进服务消费发展的专项文件也已渐成体系。这为服务消费的稳健发展提供了制度保障。 服务消费是一座取之不尽的"金矿"。笔者认为，在现阶段，我国发展服务消费已不是可选项，而是必选 项。对我国经济来说，扩大服务消费，具有重要的现实作用和长远意义。 现在，已经进入发展快车道的服务消费，将责无旁贷承担起扩内需促消费的重任，成为推动经济高质量 发展新动能的重要组成部分。 其次，服务消费是创新融合的试验场。 "业态融合"是扩大服务消费的核心之一。"融"什么，"合"什么，这是重点。笔者认为，在当前新一轮技 术革命的加持下，在产业转型升级的趋势下，在新消费群体更强调个性的需求下，服务消费的产品和 ...

Core Insights - The inflation data for October released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive signals for the economy, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI turned from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2% in October, with food prices decreasing by 2.9%, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The core CPI's continuous rise suggests a robust recovery in domestic consumption demand, particularly in service consumption, indicating a strengthening of the overall price foundation [4] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking its first rise of the year, while the year-on-year decline was 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month [1][6] - Key industries are experiencing a reduction in price declines due to ongoing capacity governance and the release of consumption potential, with specific sectors like coal mining and manufacturing showing improved price stability [6] Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the CPI is expected to steadily rise, and PPI deflation pressures are likely to ease, supported by macro policies, restored market confidence, and expanded domestic demand [7]

Group 1 - The CPI in October turned from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%, indicating a positive shift in consumer prices [4] - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand, particularly in service consumption [5] Group 2 - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, reflecting improvements in supply-demand relationships in key industries [7] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their decline by 1.4, 1.3, and 0.7 percentage points respectively, indicating a stabilization in these industries [7] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a positive trend with price increases in various categories, such as 18.4% in arts and crafts, 3.3% in sports balls, and 2.1% in nutritional food manufacturing, driven by effective consumption-boosting policies [7] Group 3 - The overall economic vitality is steadily increasing, with domestic demand potential being released, as indicated by the positive inflation data [2] - The improvement in price data is comprehensive and solid, surpassing seasonal levels, reflecting a smoother economic internal circulation and enhanced growth quality [5] - Future inflation trends are expected to show a gradual recovery in CPI and alleviation of PPI deflationary pressures, contributing to a moderate upward shift in overall price levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Kunming Trade Resource Promotion Conference" aims to deepen cooperation between Shanghai and Yunnan, showcasing Kunming's unique position and opportunities as a gateway to South Asia and Southeast Asia, while promoting cross-border e-commerce and consumption growth [1][3][11] Group 1: Economic Development and Opportunities - Kunming is actively promoting the integration of diverse consumption formats, focusing on emerging fields like coffee consumption to create nationally influential consumption scenarios [3][5] - The city is leveraging its rich "old brand" resources to rejuvenate traditional brands and stimulate various consumption potentials to meet diverse consumer needs [3][5] - The promotion conference highlighted Kunming's commitment to building a regional international center city, enhancing its role as a hub for international trade and commerce [1][4][7] Group 2: International Cooperation and Trade - Kunming is enhancing its exhibition platform to host international events, facilitating efficient connections and deep cooperation between domestic and foreign enterprises [3][4] - The city is focusing on high-quality foreign trade development through three main paths: improving trade efficiency, creating new open platforms, and enhancing international logistics channels [7][10] - The event attracted over a hundred well-known enterprises and investment institutions from Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, fostering discussions on international supply chain cooperation and collaborative market development [11][13] Group 3: Event Highlights and Outcomes - The promotion conference featured representatives from seven key units, emphasizing cross-border e-commerce and exhibition platforms, with 28 quality enterprises showcasing their products [10][11] - The event facilitated discussions between 22 representatives from Fortune 500 companies and participating enterprises, resulting in multiple cooperation intentions and agreements [10][11] - Attendees expressed optimism about Kunming's potential, recognizing it as a vibrant city with significant commercial opportunities and a welcoming business environment [13]

Group 1 - The event "2025 Kunming Trade Resource Promotion Conference" aims to integrate into the national "Belt and Road" initiative and deepen cooperation between Shanghai and Yunnan, showcasing Kunming's unique position and business environment [1][11] - Kunming is focusing on the integration of diverse consumption formats, particularly in emerging fields like coffee consumption and cross-border e-commerce, to create a vibrant new development blueprint [3][6] - The conference highlighted Kunming's advantages as a livable city and an open hub connecting domestic and international markets, inviting businesses to invest and expand in the region [5][11] Group 2 - The event gathered over a hundred well-known enterprises and investment institutions from Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, facilitating in-depth discussions on international supply chain cooperation and market development [8][11] - Representatives from key sectors, including cross-border e-commerce and traditional brands, showcased their offerings, leading to multiple cooperation intentions and agreements during the event [6][8] - The successful hosting of the conference is seen as a significant step in enhancing the cooperation between Shanghai and Yunnan, providing new opportunities for investment in Kunming and contributing to its development as a regional international center [11][12]

Economic Performance - The agricultural and rural economy in China has maintained a good development momentum in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Summer grain production is stable, early rice has increased production, and autumn grain planting area has expanded, with over 85% of the harvest completed [3] Poverty Alleviation - As of the end of September, over 7 million individuals at risk of returning to poverty have been identified and assisted, with targeted support measures implemented [5] Rural Development - The rural construction action has progressed steadily, with 324,000 new projects added to the project library and an investment of 162.39 billion yuan allocated [7] Employment - In the first nine months, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [7] Social Security - By the end of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million respectively, with social security card coverage at 98.9% of the population [9] Logistics Performance - The total social logistics volume in the first three quarters reached 263.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with industrial product logistics contributing significantly [10] - The logistics volume for high-end manufacturing components remains strong, with growth rates of 13% and 8.9% for machine tools and integrated circuits respectively [12] - Under policies promoting domestic demand and consumption, the logistics volume for goods increased by 6.6% year-on-year [13] - Logistics demand related to the new energy industry has surged, with production logistics for new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries growing by 29.7% and 46.9% respectively [14] Transportation - The cross-regional flow of people reached 50.6 billion person-times in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [15] - The volume of freight transport grew steadily, with a total of 43.25 billion tons completed, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.89% [16] - Fixed asset investment in transportation reached 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a stable and progressive economic operation in the transportation sector [18]

Core Insights - The logistics sector in China has shown a steady growth trend in the first three quarters of the year, with a total social logistics volume of 263.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - Industrial logistics remains a key driver, contributing 81% to the overall growth, with a 5.6% increase in logistics volume [1] - The demand for logistics related to high-end manufacturing components and new energy products has surged, indicating a robust recovery in import logistics [2] Group 1: Overall Logistics Performance - The logistics operation in China is characterized by "steady acceleration and dual improvement in quality and efficiency" [1] - The total social logistics volume for the first three quarters reached 263.2 trillion yuan, marking a 5.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The resilience of the logistics sector continues to strengthen amid supportive macro policies [1] Group 2: Industrial Logistics - Industrial logistics volume increased by 5.6%, maintaining its core pillar status in the overall logistics growth [1] - Notable growth in logistics volume for products such as industrial control computers, 3D printing equipment, and industrial robots, all exceeding 30% [1] Group 3: Import Logistics and New Energy - Import logistics is experiencing a recovery, with high demand for high-end manufacturing components [2] - The logistics volume for machine tools and integrated circuits grew by 13% and 8.9%, respectively [2] - Logistics demand related to the new energy industry has seen significant growth, with production logistics for new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells increasing by 29.7%, 46.9%, and 14.0% respectively [2] Group 4: Consumer Logistics - The logistics volume for units and residents increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration to 8.0% in the third quarter [2] - Online new consumption logistics demand is growing rapidly, contributing positively to the overall logistics performance [2]

Group 1: Economic Strategy and Goals - The emphasis on "historical initiative spirit" reflects a proactive approach to challenges, shifting from "responding to challenges" to "fighting risks and facing challenges" in the 15th Five-Year Plan[1] - The reaffirmation of "economic construction as the center" highlights its critical role in the upcoming five years, maintaining a focus on high-quality development[2] - The goal for 2035 includes achieving a per capita GDP of at least $20,000, implying a need for approximately 4.4% average annual growth over the next decade[3] Group 2: Industrial and Technological Development - The focus on the real economy and maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is crucial for building a modern industrial system[4] - The plan includes a shift towards advanced manufacturing, with new priorities such as aerospace and transportation, while emphasizing intelligent, green, and integrated development[4] - The call to "seize the high ground in technological development" indicates an increasing commitment to original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs[4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with a primary focus on boosting consumption and effective investment, aligning with previous plans[6] - The meeting indirectly addresses the issue of "involution" by highlighting the need to eliminate barriers to a unified national market[7] Group 4: Financial and Social Considerations - The meeting briefly mentioned real estate, focusing on promoting high-quality development in the sector, with further details expected in the full 15th Five-Year Plan[7] - There is a shift towards improving the income distribution system, indicating a focus on protecting legitimate income and regulating excessive income[7]

Core Insights - The travel enthusiasm during the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival did not translate into strong consumer spending, indicating a weak consumption performance despite high travel activity [2][3][4]. Consumption Trends - During the holiday period from October 1 to 8, a total of 2.433 billion people traveled, with an average of 304 million daily, reflecting a 6.3% year-on-year increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - However, retail and catering sales during the holiday only grew by 2.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than previous holidays [3]. - Daily sales in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, which is also weaker than previous holiday periods [3]. Consumer Spending Analysis - Domestic tourism saw 888 million trips with total spending of 809 billion yuan, slightly higher than last year, but per capita spending decreased to 911 yuan, below last year's 916 yuan [4]. - The third quarter saw a slowdown in consumption growth, with retail sales growth dropping to 3.4% in August, the lowest since December 2024 [6][7]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to face greater downward pressure on consumption due to elevated base effects from last year and the diminishing impact of trade-in policies [8]. - Key factors constraining consumption recovery include pressure on employment income, declining household wealth due to falling property prices, and weak consumer confidence [9]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, it is suggested to expand the categories supported by trade-in policies, enhance support for service consumption, and encourage new types of consumption [10][11]. - Improving the social security system is also crucial, as current social spending is significantly lower than that of OECD countries, which limits consumption growth [12].