基本生活类商品稳定增长。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位粮油食品类商品零售额同比增长5.8%，饮料类商品零售额同比增长18.9%，日用品类商品零售额 同比增长8.4%。以上三类商品零售额合计占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重为13.3%，拉动增长0.9个百分点。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点记者管悦 9月24日，济南市统计局公布1-8月份消费品市场相关情况。记者获悉，今年以来，济南市扎实推动扩内需促消费政策落实落细，消费需求逐步释放，全市 消费品市场保持平稳运行。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位消费品零售额1319.2亿元，同比增长2.1%。 线上消费活力不断提升。随着电商直播、即时零售等线上消费新场景的不断拓展，济南市线上消费动能进一步释放。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位通过 公共网络实现的商品零售额同比增长21.2%，拉动全市限额以上单位消费品零售额增长4.8个百分点。占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重由去年全年 的23.2%提升至26.7%。 新能源汽车保持较高热度。随着新能源汽车技术不断提质升级，叠加消费者观念转变，济南市新能源汽车销售市场热度不减。1-8月份，济南市限额以上 单位新能源汽车零售额同比增长12. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, which is below the consensus expectation of 3.8% [11][5] - The rural market's growth rate outpaced that of urban areas, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% and rural retail sales growing by 4.6% [13][5] - Online consumption continues to accelerate, with cumulative online retail sales of goods and services growing by 9.6% and 6.4% respectively from January to August [15][5] - The CPI turned negative in August, decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to -2.9% [36][5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting a slight increase [49][5] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth of retail sales in August was 3.4%, indicating stable growth [10] - The total retail sales for August 2025 were 39,668 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth [11] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales amounted to 34,387 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%, while rural retail sales reached 5,281 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.6% [13] Channel Performance - Online consumption showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.38% in August, while offline retail sales grew by 2.0% [16][15] Category Performance - The restaurant sector continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in August, while overall retail sales of goods grew by 3.6% [23][5] - The performance of essential, discretionary, and real estate-related categories was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.75%, 6.45%, and 3.26% respectively [29][5] Price Performance - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, while the PPI's decline narrowed to -2.9% [36][5] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, primarily due to significant declines in pork and fresh vegetables [38][5] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting a slight increase compared to previous months [49][5] Investment Recommendations - There is potential for service consumption to be released, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as cultural tourism, hotels, and duty-free shops [57][5] - The cosmetics sector showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1% in August, indicating strong performance in a traditionally slow season [57][5]

证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 8月消费市场运行总体平稳， 核心CPI继续回升 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年9月15日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周观点 大消费行业周观点：8月消费市场运行总体平稳，核心CPI继续回升。本周大消费各子版块中，除消费者服务外均实现正增长，主要得益于整 体市场环境与资金面驱动。根据国家统计局，8月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比持平，同比下降0.4%，主要是上年同期对比基数走高， 叠加食品价格涨幅低于季节 ...

Group 1 - Taizhou plans to establish a merger and acquisition mother fund to support industrial transformation and the growth of leading companies [2] - Tencent Cloud will cancel the discounted token payment model for DeepSeek API starting September 10, 2025, moving to a unified pricing model [3] - Gaode CEO announced that the "Gaode Street Ranking" will never be commercialized, aiming to increase consumer traffic for offline stores [4] Group 2 - China's real estate registration convenience has improved, with "house delivery and certificate delivery" covering over 2,200 counties and cities [5][6] - The core CPI has seen a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months, with a 0.9% rise in August, indicating effective consumer demand policies [7] - Microsoft will require employees to work at least three days a week in the office starting next year, implementing the policy in phases [8] Group 3 - AI video generation company Aishi Technology completed a $60 million Series B financing round, marking the largest single financing in the domestic video generation sector [9] - The iPhone 17 will be available for pre-order on Taobao Flash Sale, with delivery as fast as 30 minutes after the official release [10] - The MXene material family has doubled in size, providing new opportunities for next-generation energy and electronic devices [11] Group 4 - China's expansion of domestic demand policies is showing positive effects, with multiple price indicators reflecting an upward trend [12] - The first 3D-printed drug production license has been issued in China, marking a significant step for 3D printing technology in pharmaceuticals [13] - Chinese short dramas are now available in over 200 countries and regions, becoming a new growth point in the global digital content sector [14][15]

Core Insights - The consumer market in China remained generally stable in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [1] Economic Indicators - National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that the CPI did not change on a month-to-month basis [1] - Year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.4%, reflecting a slight contraction in consumer prices [1] - Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, indicating a strengthening trend in underlying inflation [1]

Group 1 - On September 10, the State Council approved the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments announced a three-month special rectification action in the automotive industry to address online chaos [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation released national standards for individual business credit evaluation to facilitate credit financing for individual businesses [2] Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Administration held a meeting to reinforce the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations and promote a culture of compliance within the financial system [3] - The Financial Regulatory Administration, the People's Bank of China, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will jointly conduct a financial education campaign from September 15 to 21, 2025 [3] - On September 10, new futures and options for various commodities were launched on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, increasing the total number of domestic commodity futures options to 136 [3] Group 3 - Prudential Insurance Asset Management Company received approval from the Financial Regulatory Administration to commence operations, marking a significant step in the opening of China's insurance asset management industry to foreign investment [4]

Core Insights - The price data for August 2025 shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, indicating a gradual recovery from low levels [1][2][5] - CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with both indices remaining stable month-on-month [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI decline is characterized by a 0.3% decrease in urban areas and a 0.6% decrease in rural areas, with food prices dropping by 4.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.5% [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous rise for four months, driven by policies like "old-for-new" subsidies and rising international gold prices [2][3] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.9% shows a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, with industrial producer purchase prices down by 4.0% year-on-year [4][7] - The recovery of PPI is contingent on sustained "de-involution" policies and timely demand-side stimulus [4][6] Consumer Demand and Price Recovery - Consumer demand is at a critical recovery stage, with expectations of a gradual CPI increase as counter-cyclical policies take effect [5][6] - The improvement in consumer goods prices is attributed to the implementation of consumption promotion policies and the gradual restart of "old-for-new" programs [3][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors, such as coal and steel, have seen price increases due to improved market competition and demand, with coal processing prices rising by 9.7% in August [6][7] - High-tech product demand is also contributing to price increases in related industries, with integrated circuit packaging prices up by 1.1% year-on-year [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the consumer market in China remained stable in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [1] - The policy measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption have shown continued effectiveness [3] Group 2 - In August, food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, while non-food prices saw a slight increase of 0.5% [4] - Overall consumer goods prices decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, whereas service prices increased by 0.6% [4]

食品价格 同比下降4.3% 非食品价格 同比上涨0.5% 消费品价格 同比下降1.0% 服务价格-同比上涨0.6% 权威数读 / 国家统计局10日发布数据显示，8月份，消费市场运行总体平稳，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比 持平，同比下降0.4%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续第4个月扩大。 V B757 EE 19189 8月份 环比翡平 同比下降0.4% 核心CPI同比上涨0.9% 涨幅逢续第4个月扩大 内需促消费政策持续显效 the | 权威数读 / 8月份 权威曼使 制作：缪异星 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王佳宁】 策划：令伟家 统筹：何险峰 文案：缪异星 孙尉轩 724 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "double interest subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans and service industry loans aims to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand, which is a key focus of current economic work [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "double interest subsidy" policy is designed to effectively release the potential of domestic demand and support various consumer expenditures, including home renovations and essential services [1][2]. - For example, a consumer taking a loan of 200,000 yuan for home improvement could save approximately 2,000 yuan in interest payments due to a 1% subsidy, while a restaurant upgrading its facilities with a 1,000,000 yuan loan could save around 10,000 yuan [1]. - The policy covers a wide range of consumer needs, from essential items to discretionary spending, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulating consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Loan Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the balance of consumer loans (excluding housing loans) in China is projected to reach 21.01 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2]. - Empirical studies show that the introduction of consumer financial products can increase borrowing consumers' spending by 16% to 30%, while merchant sales can rise by approximately 40% [2]. - There is a notable supply-demand gap in consumer credit services, with the demand rate exceeding actual participation by 5.3 percentage points in 2021, up from 2.5 percentage points in 2019 [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Policies - The "double interest subsidy" policy is part of a broader set of measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending, including free preschool education and childcare subsidies [2]. - The government has initiated various policies, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan program, to create a cohesive framework for stimulating consumption [2]. - The "national subsidy" program for replacing old consumer goods has already driven over 2.9 trillion yuan in consumption, benefiting around 400 million people [3]. Group 4: Innovation and Consumer Engagement - Understanding consumer psychology and preferences is crucial for creating demand and enhancing consumption, emphasizing the importance of innovation [4]. - Innovative products and services, such as cultural souvenirs and drone delivery systems, are emerging as effective ways to engage consumers and meet new demands [3][4]. - The market's capacity is significant, and businesses are encouraged to leverage policy benefits while focusing on genuine innovation to boost consumption [5].