Group 1 - The UK steel industry is facing uncertainty regarding the promised reduction of US tariffs to zero, with many companies experiencing a decline in US orders due to the 25% import tariff [2][8] - Similar frustrations are being felt in Japan, the EU, and South Korea, as they await concessions from the US regarding high tariffs on automotive exports [2][5] - The German automotive industry is urging for swift execution of agreements to alleviate the significant financial burden caused by tariffs, which have already reached billions [4][7] Group 2 - Japan's automotive sector is suffering ongoing losses due to tariff uncertainties, with one manufacturer reportedly losing 100 million yen (approximately $680,000) per hour [6] - South Korea has reached a trade agreement with the US that includes a 15% tariff on automotive exports, but the 25% additional tariff remains in effect, leading to a nearly 17% decline in automotive exports to the US [5][7] - The UK has implemented a 10% equivalent tariff, the lowest among US trade partners, but the 25% tariff on steel remains a significant concern for the industry [8][9]

Core Insights - Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management reported a significant increase in its U.S. stock holdings, with a total market value of approximately $580 million for Q2 2025, up 191.5% from $199 million in the previous quarter [1] - The fund added 14 new stocks, reduced its holdings in one stock, and completely exited six stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 92.37% of the total portfolio value [1] - Notably, Scion's bullish position on UnitedHealth Group (UNH) aligns with Berkshire Hathaway's recent investment strategy, indicating a shared optimism about the healthcare sector's recovery [1][2] Holdings Summary - The top holding in Scion's portfolio is UnitedHealth Group, with a market value of $190 million, representing 18.88% of the portfolio [3][6] - Other significant holdings include Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) at $105 million (18.16%), Lululemon Athletica (LULU) at $95 million (16.43%), and Meta Platforms (META) at $73.8 million (12.76%) [3][6] - The fund's top five purchases in Q2 were UnitedHealth Group, Regeneron, Lululemon, Meta, and Estee Lauder [4][6] Selling Activity - The top five sell positions included put options for Nvidia (NVDA), Alibaba (BABA), Pinduoduo (PDD), JD.com (JD), and Trip.com (TCOM) [5][6] - The fund significantly reduced its exposure to Chinese tech stocks, reflecting a shift in investment strategy compared to the previous quarter [7][9] Market Context - UnitedHealth's stock is currently trading near a five-year low, down 57.4% from its 52-week high, which may present a buying opportunity as Burry seeks value in the company [2] - The overall market sentiment has shifted positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices achieving double-digit gains in Q2, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [7][9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated a potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains strong, a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate [1] - The recent comments from U.S. officials, including former President Trump, have provided support for gold prices, with spot gold closing up 0.31% at 778.7 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., with tariff revenues potentially offsetting inflationary pressures, thus supporting dollar assets [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September, while ongoing trade frictions continue to elevate market risk aversion [3] - The future influence of Fed officials' attitudes and U.S. inflation data on the market is expected to increase, leading to potential volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3450, indicating a need for stronger breakout drivers [4] - Despite macroeconomic news increasing gold price volatility, there remains potential for a price surge, suggesting a bullish strategy through low-cost call options during price pullbacks [4]

Group 1 - The EU anticipates an announcement from President Trump regarding lower tariffs on EU automobiles and exemptions for industrial goods like aircraft parts [1] - A joint statement is expected to outline the political commitments made by President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen last month [1] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will face a 15% tariff on most of its export goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The White House confirmed that the general tariff will serve as a ceiling for the EU, while most other trade partners will have their benchmark rates added to the existing most-favored-nation rates [1] - The administrative order from the U.S. only covers reciprocal tariffs without specifying any exemptions or how industry measures will apply to trade partners [1] - Ongoing negotiations will address exemptions for wine, spirits, and other goods that may benefit from zero tariffs, while the EU is pushing for an agreement to allow a certain amount of steel and aluminum to be exported to the U.S. at rates lower than the current 50% [1][2]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced significant gains on July 23, driven by a new trade agreement between the United States and Japan, which reduced tariffs on Japanese imports to the U.S. [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed up by 3.51%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index rose by 3.18% [1] - The Nikkei index increased by 1396.40 points, closing at 41171.32 points, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 90.19 points, closing at 2926.38 points [1] Sector Performance - All 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with transportation machinery, banking, and metal products leading the increases [1]

Group 1 - The recent trade deal between the U.S. and Japan may negatively impact U.S. automakers like General Motors and Ford while benefiting Japanese competitors [2][4] - The deal includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, which is lower than the 25% tariff U.S. automakers face for imports from Mexico and Canada [4][5] - U.S. automakers are also facing increased costs for essential components due to tariffs on imported metals, further complicating their competitive position [5][9] Group 2 - President Trump's goal was to increase U.S. production and jobs, but the new tariff structure may make it more expensive for U.S. automakers compared to their foreign counterparts [7][9] - U.S. automakers sold only 16,000 vehicles in Japan last year, representing less than 1% of the market, while Japanese automakers sold 5.3 million vehicles in the U.S. [8] - The trade deal raises questions about its effectiveness, as it may not significantly enhance U.S. automakers' access to the Japanese market [9][10]

Core Insights - France's trade deficit has significantly widened amid escalating trade tensions and economic downturn, reaching €43 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of €4.4 billion compared to the second half of 2024 [1] Trade Deficit Analysis - In the first half of the year, imports rose by 1.9% year-on-year, outpacing export growth of 0.7%, contributing to the expanding trade deficit [1] - The trade deficit for the second quarter alone reached €22.9 billion, an increase of €2.8 billion from the first quarter [1] - Key factors for the widening deficit include rising energy prices, a decline in electricity exports, decreased exports of aerospace and maritime products, and a significant increase in pharmaceutical imports, which hit a "historical high" [1] Yearly Trade Deficit Overview - Over the past 12 months, France's cumulative trade deficit has reached €81.7 billion [1] - Since the imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. in early April, French exports to the U.S. have seen a slight year-on-year decline, but no significant drop has been observed compared to the same period last year [1] Government Response - The French Minister for Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, indicated that the trade deficit serves as a serious warning signal for France, especially in light of new trade agreements between the EU and the U.S. [1] - He urged France and Europe to take action to enhance competitiveness and "accelerate efforts" to avoid falling behind [1]

Trade Relations - The U.S may extend the trade agreement with China for another 90 days [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has declined for four consecutive weeks. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, indicating a lack of willingness to support prices. Considering the large impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, with large - container quotes concentrated at $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 from the end of July. The freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Historically, the peak usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rate in late August generally returns to the early - July level. Attention should be paid to the speed of freight rate decline and tariff negotiations. Due to the impact of tariffs on foreign trade and high shipping capacity supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season. Consider short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with weakening demand and a slight decline in the composite index. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by exports. On August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tariff rate. The EU will increase purchases of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The shipping demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, down 1.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and the suspension of 24% of US tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU, down 2.2% and 7.5% respectively from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing $750 billion of US energy products and US military equipment [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From August 4 to July 28, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a decline of 0.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a decline of 12.0% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The trading data of multiple contracts on August 6 are provided, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Various charts are provided to show the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, and shipping - related price trends [13][17][19]