美国总统特朗普（资料图） 近日的越南政坛发生了大震荡！该国的四名高层人士集体下台，要知道就在当天，美国总统特朗普刚刚宣布和越南贸易协议的最新动向，如此巧合的事情 背后，这两者之间又有怎样的联系呢？ 自从新任政府班子上台之后，美国方面的大动作真是一个接着一个始终不停，其中最引人注目的就是关税政策，从一开始的有针对性征收，到后来的全世 界范围内广泛征收，美国的所作所为就连他的盟友们都瞠目结舌！ 越南作为东南亚的一个重要国家，一直以来与美国的合作都不少，毕竟想要抱人家的大腿就得拿出点诚意来，而越南对于美国来说也是一个不错的伙伴， 美国大企业在越南投资建厂也是普遍现象，特朗普上台之后还曾主动致电越方领导，两国的关系可见一斑！ 就目前的情况来看，越南政府正在稳步推进政治、经济策略，随着这四位政治人物的下台，领导班子将迎来一次大换血，这对于领导核心来说是稳定政局 的关键时刻，如果能将班子重新组建，那么对他的后续执政将大有助益。 不过即使是这样，白宫方面在征收关税时也丝毫没有对越南手软，一出手就是高达46%的关税啊，越南一看这个情况也真是傻眼了，赶紧和特朗普联系想 让他们高抬贵手，毕竟如此高的关税，真让他们的企业吃不消啊！ ...

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在昨晚的美盘时段，一则关于欧美关税协议接近达成的消息重磅出炉，瞬间引发市场避险情绪大幅降 温。受此影响，黄金价格迅速跳水式下跌，且在美盘期间反弹乏力。最终，黄金日线以一根醒目的大阴 线收官，呈现出典型的"乌云盖顶"形态。 从1小时级别来看，黄金的均线已自高位开始拐头向下，在消息面的冲击下，多头动能明显受挫。与此 同时，黄金短线走势已然构筑出头肩顶结构。倘若后续反弹未能强势突破3400关口，则意味着右肩成 型，短期顶部结构——头肩顶将正式确立，届时空头力量将全面爆发，开启下行趋势。 【要闻速递】 美日达成贸易协议，美方对日本实施的对等关税为15%，同时欧美贸易谈判进展顺利，大多数产品税率 或为15%，贸易协议进展给推升市场风险偏好，贵金属小幅回落。 不过，值得注意的是，欧盟仍在准备一项报复性关税方案，以防在8月1日前无法达成协议，欧美贸易谈 判风险仍存。 摘要今日周四（7月24日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3383.90美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3386.65美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，最高上探3393.09美元/盎司，最低触及3383.90美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2509： 1.基本面：两名欧洲外交官周三表示，欧盟和美国正朝着达成贸易协议的方向迈进，该协议可能包括美国 对欧盟商品征收15%的基准关税，并可能对部分商品给予豁免；在实物供应方面，多位行业消息人士表示， 阿塞拜疆BTC原油在土耳其杰伊汉港的装载作业恢复，此前因污染问题加强检查导致近日装载延迟；中性 2.基差：7月23日，阿曼原油现货价为70.72美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.81美元/桶，基差16.78 元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至7月18日当周API原油库存减少57.7万桶，预期减少64 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% to 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.37%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 1.62% at 25538.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.48% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.82%[1] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong surged to 3330.666 million HKD[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump indicated that the reciprocal tariff rates would range from 15% to 50%, with most EU products expected to have a tariff rate set at 15%[1][15] - The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards a trade agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on most products[15] Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - Tesla reported a 12% decline in revenue to 22.5 billion USD, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.40 USD, slightly below analyst expectations[15] - Tesla's gross margin remains above average expectations, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges[15] International Relations - Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with EU leaders in Beijing, with discussions expected to focus on climate cooperation, although no joint statement is planned[15] - The meeting highlights ongoing tensions and divisions between China and the EU, despite previous signs of thawing relations[15]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is that South Korea is considering a commitment to invest in U.S. projects in exchange for a reduction in automotive tariffs [1] - The negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea are focused on lowering tariffs on goods, including automobiles, to 15% [1] - South Korea's trade delegation is currently in Washington for discussions, with a proposed investment scale of $400 billion mentioned by Commerce Secretary Raimondo [1] Group 2 - The investment commitment being discussed is similar to a recent agreement between Japan and the U.S., which included procurement of Boeing aircraft and agricultural products [1] - The total investment commitment sought by the U.S. is in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars, reflecting a significant economic engagement [1] - The challenge for South Korea lies in matching the investment commitment of Japan, which is more than double South Korea's economic size [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].

市场消息：美国和韩国已讨论设立一个基金，用于投资美国项目，作为贸易协议的一部分。 ...

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariff negotiations, reducing the US's "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan will increase imports of US rice under the current "minimum access system" [1] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, natural gas, and new shipbuilding facilities [1] - The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate on most products, with EU officials pushing to include sectors like automobiles [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that the US-Japan trade agreement enhances the likelihood of Japan's economic performance aligning with the central bank's forecasts, although there is still "extremely high" uncertainty in the economy [1] - The US National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decline in June's existing home sales, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 2% year-over-year to $435,300 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

金十数据7月24日讯，中信证券研报称，美日双方达成主要内容是"以增加投资换降低关税"的贸易协 议，这应能明显减小日本车企业绩受冲击的幅度，对日本的意义主要在于避免信函威胁成真、提高外贸 前景能见度。美日协议是日股上涨的催化剂，在经济前景逐渐明朗的基准情形下，我们预计日银今秋或 会再加息25bps，并一如既往地对日债持谨慎观点。 中信证券：美日协议为市场降低不确定性 ...