2025 年发达国家债务 / GDP 比整体维持高位，不同经济体呈现分化态势，部分国家风险凸显，成为全球经济稳 定的潜在隐患。据 IMF9 月数据，发达经济体公共债务整体接近 93%，若剔除美国则降至 110%，各国走势差异 明显。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.16%，报收945.76元/克。 期货公司观点 日本是债务率最高的发达国家，2025 财年政府债务 / GDP 比达 233%，债务总额约 7.98 万亿美元。其债务利息 支出占 2025 财年预算近四分之一，且 10 年期国债收益率创 17 年新高，叠加人口老龄化导致税收增长乏力，财 政可持续性备受质疑。 广发期货： 美国债务规模全球最大，债务 / GDP 比约 127%，总额达 40 万亿美元。2025 年有 9.2 万亿美元国债到期，需以 高利率再融资，利息支出或将突破 1.5 万亿美元，同时外资持有率大幅下降，穆迪还警告其 AAA 评级可能下 调。 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放鹰派信 号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金，投资者重塑资 产定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a significant increase in domestic gold jewelry prices, but actual sales have not met expectations due to high costs, prompting consumers to prefer smaller weight items and gold bar exchanges [1][3][5]. Price Trends - On November 11, international gold prices rose sharply, with spot gold exceeding $4130 per ounce and New York futures surpassing $4140 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang pricing their gold jewelry at approximately 1308 to 1310 RMB per gram [1][3]. Consumer Behavior - Despite promotional activities, actual sales of large-weight gold jewelry have declined, as consumers are more inclined to purchase smaller weight items due to high prices [3][5]. - There is a noticeable trend of consumers opting for gold bar exchanges, with many customers inquiring about trading old gold for new jewelry [9][11]. Market Data - The China Gold Association reported a 32.5% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry consumption for the first three quarters, totaling 270.036 tons [8]. - The demand for lightweight and high-value jewelry remains strong, contrasting with the poor performance of larger items [8]. Banking Adjustments - Several banks have raised the minimum purchase threshold for gold accumulation plans in response to rising gold prices, with some banks adjusting their policies to protect investor interests [12][13]. - For instance, Citic Bank announced an increase in the minimum investment amount from 1000 RMB to 1500 RMB starting November 15, 2025 [13]. Investment Caution - Experts advise against speculative trading in gold, emphasizing the importance of cautious investment strategies and risk management [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices, with major brands seeing prices fall below 1260 yuan per gram, raises questions about whether this is a short-term correction or a signal of a long-term trend reversal [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - Major gold retailers such as Lao Miao, Zhou Shengsheng, and Lao Fengxiang have collectively reduced their gold prices, with declines of up to 13 yuan per gram, marking the first "brand-linked adjustment" since Q3 2025 [1]. - Current prices are reported as follows: Lao Fengxiang at 1249 yuan/gram, Zhou Shengsheng at 1250 yuan/gram, and Lao Miao at 1249 yuan/gram, while other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are slightly above 1250 yuan/gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: a recent pressure on international gold prices due to fluctuating Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and a rebound in the US dollar index, causing NYMEX gold futures to drop from 4145 USD/ounce to around 4080 USD/ounce [2]. - Additionally, consumer demand has weakened, with a 15%-20% decrease in terminal sales as consumers adopt a "wait and see" approach in response to falling prices [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Experts caution investors to be aware of three key risks: potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy that could lead to further declines in international gold prices, seasonal pressures during the traditional wedding season that may delay consumer purchases, and the variance in processing fees among different brands, which can range from 20 to 50 yuan/gram [3]. - It is recommended that consumers prioritize brands with transparent processing fees and favorable buyback policies, while investors should manage their positions carefully to avoid speculative risks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market in 2025 is transitioning from a "one-sided rise" to a "wide fluctuation," reflecting both international price adjustments and changes in consumer sentiment [4]. - Consumers are advised to focus on their specific needs rather than trying to time the market, with wedding purchases potentially benefiting from brand promotions and investment purchases needing to consider global economic conditions and monetary policies [4].

黄金震荡突破，多头爆发，一路狂飙，昨天延续新高来到4150后。首次遇阻，快跌50美金，进入调整。 守4100关口，多空争夺。 今天的走势 昨天黄金遇阻，进入调整阶段。 多头休整，争夺4100。 今天4150再遇阻，下方回落。 再探4100，不穿看反弹。 上方调整，继续挑战4150的位置。 再次上破，持续看向4200的阻力。 今天消息面 当然了，4150下方，短期内看两个区域范围内多空争夺。 不过，多头一柱擎天，缺少支撑，下方或回调的机会，穿4100，下看向4050的位置支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，8月收官，结束了长达4个月的震荡格局。9月一路连涨，到10月单边上涨，刷历史新 高后。再次跳水，到本月连续2周洗盘后，再次爆发大涨，蓄力已久，再次释放看向4200的关口。当然 了，谨防大幅回调，可看向4000的区域。 操作方面，黄金多头大爆发，整体看多延续，关注4100和4050做多的机会。此外，黄金遇阻调整，上方 面临关键阻力，关注4150和4200做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美劳动力市场恶化，私营机构，拉响非农数据警报，每周就业数据大降。ADP或大幅减少，预 测数据或直接敲醒了警钟，10月降息后，劳动力市 ...

短期阻力与长期预测：4150美元关口成关键 尽管涨势凶猛，但金价短期并非没有压力。当前国际黄金在4148美元附近遭遇技术阻力，下方支撑位在4118美元，若跌破可能回调至4096美元甚 至4040美元区间。不过，长期趋势仍被机构看好：摩根大通私人银行预测，到2026年底金价可能突破5000美元，较当前再涨25%以上。其逻辑在 于：全球央行购金节奏难放缓，地缘冲突或长期化，而美联储降息周期下，实际利率下行将进一步推高黄金吸引力。 普通人如何应对？记住这3条"避坑指南" 面对金价狂飙，普通投资者需保持理性：1. 刚需买金饰优先选克重款，避开"一口价"陷阱，对比工费并保留发票；2. 投资黄金远离无资质平台， 建议将黄金配置比例控制在总资产的5%-10%，避免"押注式"买入；3. 变现时选择银行或正规金店，提前问清回收价与手续费，警惕"高价回收"套 路。 2025年的黄金市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过——国际现货黄金价格一度冲破4145美元/盎司，沪金期货飙至952元/克，金饰价格更是直逼1300 元/克大关。年初至今，金价累计涨幅近50%，较10年前暴涨300%，创下30年来最猛涨势。全球投资者都在追问：这波行情还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a differentiated VAT policy for gold trading in Shanghai has significantly impacted the gold market, leading to price fluctuations and changes in consumer behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the new tax policy, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market experienced immediate disruptions, with merchants halting new gold orders and adjusting pricing strategies [2][3]. - The price of gold jewelry in the Shui Bei market increased by approximately 60 to 70 yuan per gram after the announcement, with some brands reporting price hikes of over 66 yuan per gram on the first day of resumed pricing [3][4]. - Major gold retailers like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook adjusted their prices upwards, with increases ranging from 61 to 63 yuan per gram, reflecting the new cost structure imposed by the tax policy [4][5]. Group 2: Tax Policy Details - The new tax policy exempts VAT on standard gold transactions until the end of 2027, differentiating between investment and non-investment gold, which affects tax burdens for various market participants [3][8]. - Non-investment gold enterprises will see an increase in tax burden due to a reduction in input tax deductions from 13% to 6%, leading to a potential price increase for consumers [3][8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is divided, with some viewing gold as a long-term investment and continuing to purchase despite rising prices, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about market bubbles [6][7]. - Banks have temporarily suspended certain gold-related services to comply with the new tax regulations, impacting consumer access to gold investment products [6][7]. Group 4: Global Demand Trends - Global gold demand remains strong, with the World Gold Council reporting a record high of 1,313 tons in the third quarter of 2023, driven primarily by investment demand [9]. - Chinese investors have shown significant activity, purchasing 74 tons of gold bars and coins in the third quarter, marking a 19% increase year-on-year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to pending expectations regarding U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, while the long-term logic supporting gold investment remains intact [1][2][3] Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have stabilized around $4000 per ounce after experiencing significant volatility [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could lead to a weakening of the U.S. government's fiscal capacity, potentially boosting gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts in December contributes to the current market uncertainty, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut being projected [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold - The shift in U.S. monetary policy remains a key driver for gold prices, with recent economic data indicating no significant improvement in the U.S. economy [2] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in Venezuela and Iran, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [2][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The new tax policy on gold in China makes gold ETFs an attractive investment option, offering tax benefits, low costs, and high liquidity [4] - Shanghai Gold ETF (159834) is highlighted as a superior choice compared to traditional gold ETFs due to its broader investment scope and lower transaction costs [5][6] - The overall precious metals sector has shown significant growth, with the precious metals index up 67.93% year-to-date, while other metal sectors have outperformed, indicating a recovery and growth opportunity in the broader metals market [6]

换资前言： 早上好！屏幕前的你，故事讲的短，别人说你瞎扯，讲的太长，就是扯蛋，交易这东西，就是找规律， 一个观点：历史不会重合，但会重演。你看看你用了多少年的技术点，来来回回不就那么多？扯蛋的不 是形态上的改变，而是自己遇到每一次价格变化的时候，心态变了，一切就感觉改变了。其实还是没 变。下面请看作者金晟富【文末+本人，每日实时分享现价单及操作策略】为各位投资朋友带来的今日 财富机会—— 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 随着美国政府停摆即将结束，参议院通过临时拨款法案，众议院将审议表决，停摆结束后经济数据（含 9月就业报告）将密集发布，市场预期数据显疲软。黄金短期整体走势偏强，日内需持续关注行情上涨 趋势的延续性。4小时周期的表现也符合单边行情的走势，经过回落调整，k线还是收在均线之上，那 么，日内上涨的高点至少要试探布林上轨的压制点4200附近，所以，今天阶段性的上涨可以先看到4200 附近，如果周四，周五延续上涨的话，再看4300高点。对于小周期而言，4100已经形成强势支撑，那 么，下方的支撑点现在可以调整至4125附近，日内回落至此点位可考虑继续做多看涨，同样的节奏，亚 欧 ...

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 巴基斯坦首都发生自杀式炸弹袭击，已致12死27伤 分析人士认为，美国政府若败诉，将被迫退还巨额关税，同时可能援引其他法律重新实施部分关税，这 项裁决将对美国政治、经济及全球贸易产生举足轻重的影响。 环球时报援引法新社等媒体11日报道，当天巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡发生自杀式炸弹袭击，已造成12人死 亡，27人受伤。 巴基斯坦内政部长穆赫辛·纳克维表示，一名自杀式炸弹袭击者在伊斯兰堡一家地方法院大门外的一辆 警车附近引爆了身上的炸弹。 据报道，在伊斯兰堡发生自杀式爆炸事件后，巴基斯坦国防部长赫瓦贾·阿西夫在社交媒体上表示，巴 基斯坦正"处于战争状态"，当天的袭击敲响了"警钟"。他还指责阿富汗方面未能阻止对巴基斯坦的恐怖 袭击，并称巴基斯坦有充分的力量对此作出回应。 巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里在社交媒体上称，强烈谴责首都伊斯兰堡自杀式爆炸事件，向遇难者家属表示深 切哀悼，祈祷伤者早日康复，并向执法机构致敬。 恐怖组织"巴基斯坦塔利班"宣称对此次爆炸事件负责，并在一份声明中称此次袭击目标是司法官员。 特朗普：推翻关税将致"毁灭性打击" 据央视新闻消息，特朗普11日在社交媒体上表示，若最高法院作出废除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding gold tax policies marks a significant shift in the regulatory framework and development landscape of the domestic gold market, aiming to enhance tax governance and guide gold resources to better serve the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy exempts value-added tax (VAT) on transactions of standard gold through official exchanges, with specific provisions for investment and non-investment uses, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [1]. - The policy aims to address tax evasion issues and enhance regulatory oversight by distinguishing between the commodity and financial attributes of gold [2][8]. Group 2: Market Impact - The gold industry is expected to undergo a "reshuffling period," with potential short-term pain for the jewelry sector but a healthier long-term outlook, particularly for leading brands [3]. - The new tax structure may lead to fluctuations in gold raw material prices, indirectly affecting the cost of gold jewelry production and final retail prices [3]. Group 3: Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have adjusted their gold accumulation services in response to market volatility and new regulations [4][5]. - Changes include suspending certain gold accumulation services and adjusting minimum investment amounts, reflecting the banks' risk management strategies [5][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be more cautious in their investment channel choices due to the new tax environment, which favors transactions through exchanges due to lower tax burdens [8][9]. - The attractiveness of non-exchange physical gold investments is expected to decline, while gold ETFs and other virtual trading options may gain popularity among ordinary investors [9][10]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The importance of the purchasing channel has increased significantly, with consumers needing to consider the tax implications of their gold purchases more carefully [9][10]. - The shift in tax policy may lead to a preference for purchasing gold through formal banking channels, which offer better liquidity and compliance assurances [10].