s 加蒙期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/4 | | 指标 | 4/30 | 5/26 | 5/30 | 5/30 | 6/3 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3408 | 3526 | 3457 | 3457 | 3482 | ટર | -44 | | | BU06 | 3408 | 3539 | 3452 | 3452 | 3479 | 27 | -60 | | | BU09 | 3351 | 3478 | 3414 | 3414 | 3456 | 42 | -22 | | | BU12 | 3215 | 3297 | 3237 | 3237 | 3291 | 54 | -6 | | HET | BU03 | 3246 | 3258 | 3201 | 3201 | 3260 | ਦੇਰੇ | 2 | | | 成交量 | 280344 | 392268 | 579926 | 579926 | 406179 | -173747 | 13911 | | | 持仓 ...

6月3日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货6月3日讯， 2.月差：沪深300IF2506-2507价差为37.2，上证50IH2506-2507价差为30.6，中证500IC2506-2507价差为 70.6，中证1000IM2506-2507价差为88.2。 1.基差：沪深300 IF2506合约贴水27.21，上证50 IH2506合约贴水18.7，中证500 IC2506合约贴水56.44， 中证1000 IM2506合约贴水72.04； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are still weak overall, with expected overall supply growth, some support from Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 40 to 4550, remained stable in East China at 4505, and decreased by 40 to 4710 in South China; ether - post C4 decreased by 40 to 4640, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4505 [1]. - The PG futures price declined with the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract is currently 513; the 07 - 08 spread is 84, and the 07 - 09 spread is 150 [1]. - The import cost increased, PP prices rose, and PP production profit decreased. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1]. Weekly Changes - From Monday to Thursday, the PG futures price fluctuated upwards, and on Friday, it significantly declined due to the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the spreads of 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 also strengthened [1]. - In the external market, FEI and MB slightly declined, while CP slightly increased; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) dollars [1]. Fundamentals - Arrivals slightly increased, chemical demand rose, civil gas sales were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; refinery inventories generally increased [1]. - Supply increased by 2.46% in terms of commercial volume, and it is expected to continue to rise, while arrivals are expected to decrease [1]. - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP are similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week [1]. - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to climb next week [1]. - MTBE prices first rose and then fell, production remained basically flat, and the profits of gas - fraction etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some replenishment demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. The 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore on land, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a drawdown of residual oil in the US. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and the inter - month spread after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, in China, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, while that in Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued, leading to a strong near - end of high - sulfur fuel oil. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the long - term decline of the high - sulfur crack spread [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 decreased by 8.89, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 decreased by 7.24, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.37, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 decreased by 9.66, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 2.42, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.49, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.65 [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 9.09, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 7.78, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.82, Singapore GO M1 increased by 1.61, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.07, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 3.10 [3][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the FOB price of Singapore 380cst increased by 6.41, the FOB price of Singapore VLSFO increased by 5.99, the 380 basis increased by 0.45, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.9, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.1 [4] Domestic FU Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 62, FU 05 increased by 57, FU 09 increased by 73, FU 01 - 05 increased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 16, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 11 [4] Domestic LU Data - From May 23 to May 29, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 71, LU 05 increased by 56, LU 09 increased by 83, LU 01 - 05 increased by 15, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 27, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 12 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Expected supply to increase, chemical demand to rise, and combustion demand to be weak, with an overall weak fundamental situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4510, in East China decreased by 12 to 4505, and in South China decreased by 50 to 4750; etherified C4 decreased by 60 to 4680; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4510 [1] - CP import cost slightly increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit slightly increased; PG futures prices were strong, with the 06 contract basis at -28 (latest 85), the 06 - 07 monthly spread at -8 (latest 87), and the 07 - 09 monthly spread at 3 (latest 156); the US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - Civil gas prices significantly declined, etherified C4 rebounded, the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; PG futures prices declined due to weak spot prices; the 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference significantly declined, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Supply and Demand - Arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat; the commercial volume slightly increased and was expected to continue increasing; at the same time, expected arrivals were expected to increase [1] - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production gross profit declined, and PDH operation was expected to continue to rebound next week; alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability significantly declined to -40.5 (-308), and operation was expected to slightly increase next week [1] - MTBE prices generally declined by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, profits from gas fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined; expected MTBE supply to fluctuate narrowly, gasoline demand difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on May 29 were 3514, 3507, 3483, 3308, and 3266 respectively, with daily changes of 33, 18, 40, 42, and 39, and weekly changes of -5, -30, 8, 18, and 17 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on May 29 was 510,411, with a daily increase of 102,426 and a weekly increase of 170,744. The open interest was 419,343, with a daily increase of 12,843 and a weekly increase of 18,164 [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on May 29 were 3480, 3520, 3280, 3640, and 3780 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -100, 10, and 30, and the weekly changes were 30, 0, -100, 70, and 80 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The Shandong basis was -34, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 35. The East China basis was 6, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 5. The South China basis was -234, with a daily change of -133 and a weekly change of -95 [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread was -241, with a daily change of 21 and a weekly change of 47. The 06 - 09 spread was 24, with a daily change of -22 and a weekly change of -38. The 09 - 12 spread was 175, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -10 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 69, with a daily change of -45 and a weekly change of 7. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 475, with a daily change of -23 and a weekly change of 3. The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 106, with a daily change of -29 and a weekly change of 7 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -107, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -1101, with a daily change of -91 and a weekly change of -87 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on May 29 was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.8 and a weekly change of 0.5. The gasoline market price in Shandong was 7482, with a daily change of 16 and a weekly change of 77. The diesel market price in Shandong was 6581, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of 62. The residue oil market price in Shandong was 3795, with no daily or weekly change [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are expected to be weak overall, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4490, in East China decreased by 9 to 4517, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4800; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1] - The CP import cost increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit decreased. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract slightly strengthened to 413, the 06 - 07 monthly spread increased by 27 to 95, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread increased by 16 to 159 [1] - The price of civil gas decreased significantly, ether - post carbon four rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB decreased, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; the freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The arrival of goods decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat. The commodity volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase, and the expected arrival of goods is also expected to increase [1] - Demand: The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week; the alkylation operating rate and commodity volume remained flat, profitability declined significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week; the MTBE price generally decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. The expected MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, and gasoline demand is difficult to increase, so the price may not fluctuate much. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated. The 380 - grade near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. [3] - This week, there was a significant inventory build - up on land in Singapore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a drawdown of residual oil in the US. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for recovery in cracking spreads and monthly spreads after supply resumes. [3] - The high - sulfur cracking spread ran strongly, and the profit was higher than the historical average. This year, in China, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments, the demand for fuel oil as refinery feedstock has dropped significantly. In the marine fuel sector, the global high - sulfur marine fuel consumption from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, while that in Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel consumption was weak year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. [4] - Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. The high - sulfur near - end is strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a medium - to - long - term decline in the high - sulfur cracking spread. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 12.82, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 7.11, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.65, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 10.94, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by 3.83, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.60, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 5.71. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 5.94, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 5.93, Singapore VLSFO M decreased by 3.49, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.20, Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 1.47, and Singapore 380cst - GO M1 decreased by 2.01. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 7.87, the FOB price of VLSFO decreased by 3.06, the 380 - grade basis increased by 0.95, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.6, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 1.2. [2] Domestic FU Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 2, FU 05 remained unchanged, FU 09 increased by 5, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 2, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 5, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7. [2] Domestic LU Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 27, LU 05 decreased by 4, LU 09 decreased by 34, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 23, LU 05 - 09 increased by 30, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 7. [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 contracts showed varying degrees of change. For example, the BU06 contract decreased by 35 - 34 points on a daily basis and 60 - 52 points on a weekly basis [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 407,985 on May 28, a daily decrease of 50,689 and a weekly increase of 87,988. The open interest was 406,500, a daily increase of 26,024 and a weekly increase of 1,891 [4]. Spot Market - **Low - end Prices**: The low - end prices in different regions had different trends. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market increased by 30 points both daily and weekly to 3,480, while the price in the East China market remained unchanged at 3,520 [4]. - **Specific Brands**: The price of Jingbo (Haiyun) increased by 20 points daily and 40 points weekly to 3,610 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The basis in different regions changed. For example, the Shandong basis increased by 90 points weekly to - 1, and the East China basis increased by 60 points weekly to 39 [4]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 03 - 06 spread increased by 27 points daily and 47 points weekly to - 262 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 58 points daily and 83 points weekly to 112 [4]. - **Profits**: The asphalt Marrow profit increased by 52 points daily and 75 points weekly to 35. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit increased by 22 points daily and 89 points weekly to 497 [4].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on May 28, 2025, presenting fuel oil data from May 21 - 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore onshore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a decline in US residual oil inventory. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and monthly spread after supply recovery. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the demand for fuel oil refinery feedstock has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued, resulting in a strong near - end of high - sulfur fuel oil. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium - to - long - term [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -3.16 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -5.00 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.55 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -4.12 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -0.88 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.02 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -1.84 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -8.12 | | 180cst M1 | -7.36 | | VLSFO M1 | -2.10 | | Gasoil M1 | -0.12 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -1.01 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -1.21 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -9.86 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.19 | | 380 Basis | -1.65 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -5 | | FU 05 | -16 | | FU 09 | -17 | | FU 01 - 05 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -12 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -16 | | LU 05 | -3 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 13 | | LU 09 - 01 | 0 | [4]