光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.28%，成交额 1.62 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.45%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.35%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.34%。非银金融板块走弱，杠杆市场同步回调。美联储主 | | | | 席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同时点阵图 | | | | 也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前计价降 | | | | 息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 A 股股 | | | | 指目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概念近期 | | | | 火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备 | | | 股指 | 货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏 | 震荡 | | | 热点题材 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector is "slightly bullish with a tendency to fluctuate" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The national development and reform commission announced on June 26 that it will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy, with continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies. After the news of the easing of the Middle East situation faded, the winder all - A index rose for three consecutive days from Monday to Wednesday and then slightly pulled back on Thursday. Treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and slightly declined and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety performed slightly stronger, bottomed out in the afternoon and then rebounded. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Thursday was flat compared with the previous trading day, with the weighted average of DR001 at 1.37% and that of DR007 at 1.69%. In the spot bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.25 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year fell 0.75 BP to 1.51%, the 10 - year fell 0.82 BP to 1.65%, and the 30 - year fell 1.30 BP to 1.85%. The national development and reform commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy [1] Market Logic - The continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies and the fading impact of the easing of the Middle East situation on the financial market led to the short - term horizontal fluctuation of the main varieties of treasury bond futures, and they may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - oriented investors should conduct band operations [1]

Group 1: Financial Policies and Market Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and the Central Bank jointly released a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance, aiming to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years, focusing on medium to long-term loans for small and micro enterprises' equipment updates, technological transformation, and digitalization [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the third batch of funds for the replacement of consumer goods will be distributed in July, with a phased funding usage plan to ensure orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [3] - Over 340 policies to optimize the real estate market have been introduced across more than 160 provinces and cities in the first half of 2025, with significant recovery in Shenzhen's real estate market, where new and second-hand home transactions increased by 49.6% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Technology and Domestic Substitution - The launch of the Loongson 3C6000 processor marks a significant achievement in China's self-developed general-purpose processors, achieving performance close to international mainstream levels and 100% domestic production, benefiting related enterprises in the industry [3] - Xiaomi's new ecological products include the first SUV YU7 priced from 253,500 yuan, with over 200,000 units reserved within three minutes, and AI glasses starting at 1,999 yuan, indicating high market interest [3] Group 3: Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Goods - The National Medical Insurance Administration has included the innovative drug directory for commercial health insurance in its adjustment plan for the first time, promoting the development of a multi-level medical security system [4] - The liquor market remains stable, with Moutai's terminal price maintaining above 2,000 yuan per bottle, and strong price support from distributors [4] Group 4: Economic Trends and Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a revival, with fundraising in the first half of the year increasing by 565% year-on-year, driven by Chinese enterprises and emerging companies from Southeast Asia [8] - The U.S. stock market indices reached historical highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising by 0.97% and 0.8% respectively [9] - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating after an initial rise, and a net outflow of 8.4 billion yuan from domestic main funds [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - China's independently developed CPU, Loongson 3C6000, was released, featuring self - designed instruction system and high - level security certifications [1]. - The financial regulatory authority and the central bank jointly issued a plan to build a high - quality inclusive finance system in the next five years, and the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025 [1]. - International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices recovered recently [2]. - The polyester operating rate decreased, and the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [3][4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: China launched the domestically developed Loongson 3C6000 processor, which uses the self - designed LoongArch instruction system, meets various computing needs, and has obtained a high - level security certification [1]. - **Service Industry**: The financial regulatory authority and the central bank released a plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries. The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025, and a detailed usage plan will be formulated [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - **Energy**: International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recovered recently [2]. - **Midstream** - **Chemical Industry**: The polyester operating rate decreased [3]. - **Downstream** - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly recently [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of different industries showed various trends. For example, the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry decreased from 56.96 last week to 53.47 this week [51]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries' price indices had different changes. For instance, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $64.9 per barrel on June 26, with a year - on - year decrease of 11.67% [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided documents. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint On June 26, 2025, equity index futures declined, while 30 - year CGB rose; metal futures trended strongly, and agricultural product futures fell. The top three gainers were coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal, and the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On June 26, equity index futures declined, 30 - year CGB rose, metal futures were strong, and agricultural product futures fell. Coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal were the top gainers, with coking coal rising 3.6% and positions increasing 7.7% month - on - month, poly - silicon rising 3.5% and positions decreasing 3.7% month - on - month, and silicon metal rising 2.7% and positions increasing 4.8% month - on - month. Rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean were the top decliners, with rapeseed meal falling 2.7% and positions increasing 8.9% month - on - month, soybean meal falling 2.4% and positions decreasing 0.8% month - on - month, and No.2 Soybean falling 1.6% and positions decreasing 12.0% month - on - month [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise - **Silicon Metal**: On June 26, it increased by 2.7% to 7720 yuan/ton. There was news of a furnace shutdown at an enterprise, but the supply - demand contradiction remained unrelieved, keeping silicon prices under pressure. On the supply side, northern large - scale manufacturers resumed production, and southwest China entered the wet season with reduced electricity prices and new capacity launches. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with polysilicon producers cutting output. Social inventories continued to accumulate, but futures prices made the market more cost - effective, and warehouse receipt inventory was liquidated faster, supporting near - month contracts [16][17][18]. - **TSR20**: On June 26, it increased by 2.6% to 12145 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 2.1% to 14040 yuan/ton. External shocks subsided, and prices may follow overall commodity volatility. The trading focus may return to fundamentals, but rubber's fundamentals had limited short - term variables. Supply was affected by the rainy season, and demand was relatively stable in the short - term but weak in expectation. In the third quarter, de - stocking trades may prevent a deep decline [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Rapeseed Meal**: On June 26, it decreased by 2.7% to 2550 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.4% to 2936 yuan/ton. Domestically, soybean meal had both supply and demand growth, while rapeseed meal faced weakening in both. In the short - to - medium term, soybean arrivals were expected to increase, oil mill operating rates would remain high, and soybean meal inventories were rising seasonally. In the long term, breeding sow inventory growth indicated stable and increasing rigid demand for soybean meal, and there were expected supply gaps in the fourth quarter [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU and will strengthen approval work. The NDRC will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in program in July and will launch and intensify the implementation of the equipment renewal loan interest discount policy [38]. 3.2.2 Industry News The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Policy Declaration on Digital Asset Development 2.0". The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to list offset printing paper futures and options [39][40].

金 融 期 货 研 究 期货研究 中证500 5838.25 ↓0.41 2352.2 IC2507 5809.2 ↓0.29 -29.05 396.7 34054 ↓16156 76012 ↓5170 | | | | | 期指：或偏强震荡为主 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3946.02 | ↓0.35 | | 3281 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3920.8 | ↓0.20 | -25.22 | 386.6 | 32802 | ↓15447 | 65458 | ↓6183 | | IF2508 | 3908.2 | ↓0.27 | -37 ...

Group 1 - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, marking a negative growth rate for the first time in five months [1][2] - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [2] - Despite the profit decline, the operating income of these enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 1.1% [2] Group 2 - The mining industry saw a profit decrease of 29.0%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 5.4% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profit grew by 7.2%, contributing significantly to the overall industrial profit growth [3] - Seven out of eight industries within equipment manufacturing reported profit growth, with notable increases in electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment [3] Group 3 - The "Three Aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) significantly boosted related industries, with profits in these sectors rising by 56% [4] - The aircraft manufacturing sector saw a remarkable profit increase of 120.7%, driven by successful commercial operations and new achievements in space exploration [4] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing industries also experienced substantial profit growth, with metal ship manufacturing profits increasing by 111.8% [4] Group 4 - The smart consumer device manufacturing industry saw profits double, reflecting the impact of the "Two New" policy aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements [5][6] - The general and specialized equipment sectors reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing to overall industrial profit growth [5] - The government has allocated significant funding to support equipment updates and consumer product replacements, with ongoing projects across various sectors [6]

6月27日，国家统计局公布的最新数据显示，按可比口径计算，5月份规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%，前五个月同比下降1.1%。规模以上工业企业利 润同比增速再为负值。 分析认为，这主要受有效需求不足、工业品价格下降及短期因素波动等多重因素影响。其中，投资收益等短期因素的上年同期基数较高对利润增速形成拖 累。但也需要看到，工业企业毛利润、营收保持增长，为企业下阶段盈利恢复创造有利条件。 | 1 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1 | | 多重因素影响工业企业利润下降 最新数据出炉。 数据显示，1—5月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额27204.3亿元，同比下降1.1%。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，前五个月规模以上工业企业实现利润总额比前四个月增加6034.1亿元，但是受有效需求不足、工业品价格下降及短期 因素波动等多重因素影响，同比为下降。 从利润构成看，投资收益等短期因素的上年同期基数较高，下拉1—5月份规上工业企业利润增速1.7个百分点。 虽然企业利润同比下降，但同期规模以上工业企业实现营业收入同比增长2.7%。于卫宁表示，从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度看，规模以上工业 企 ...

文字早评 2025/06/27 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.22%，创指-0.66%，科创 50-0.57%，北证 50-0.91%，上证 50-0.34%，沪深 300-0.35%， 中证 500-0.41%，中证 1000-0.45%，中证 2000-0.18%，万得微盘+0.15%。两市合计成交 15832 亿，较上 一日-196 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 7 月下达。 2、小米汽车：6 月 26 日晚 7 点，小米首款 SUV，小米 YU7 正式发布。 3、天风国际证券的证券交易牌照已升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务。 4、特朗普称美国与伊朗将于下周对话，他表示以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能很快再次爆发。 资金面：融资额+69.18 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.10bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+1.01bp 至 2.8747%，十年期国债利率-0.18bp 至 1.6489%，信用利差+1.19bp 至 125bp；美国 10 年期利率+0.82bp 至 4.29%，中美利差+0.82bp 至-264. ...

4. 马士基周四晚间表示，根据近期的发展情况，并考虑到目前已达成的停火协议，我们预计一旦确认安全风险降低，就有望 重新开启出口货物的接收。阿什杜德港口的运营仍在继续，尽管我们正密切关注局势。 5. 据CNN报道，四位知情人士透露，特朗普政府已讨论可能帮助伊朗获取至多300亿美元资金用于建设民用核能项目、放宽制 裁并解冻数十亿美元被限制的伊朗资金——这些均是其为促使德黑兰重返谈判桌而加大努力的一部分。 早盘速递 2025/6/27 热点资讯 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》明确，未 来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，普惠金融促进共同富裕迈上新台阶。普惠金融服务体系持续优化，普惠信贷体系巩 固完善，普惠保险体系逐步健全。 2. 国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。会上，国家发展改革委政研室副主任李超表示，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别 国债的支持力度是3000亿元，前两批一共1620亿元，已经按照计划分别在今年1月份和4月份下达。并将在7月份下达今年第三 批消费品以旧换新资金。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话指出，美国袭击了核设施 ...