核电核准 10 台再提速，3 月全国天然气表观消费量同比增长 0.1% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 C ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Auxiliary Service Market" marks a significant step in China's electricity market reform, establishing a unified framework for auxiliary services, long-term, and spot trading [2][4]. Group 1: Coal Power Transformation - Coal power, traditionally the backbone of China's electricity system, is transitioning from a base-load provider to a flexible regulator due to the increasing capacity of wind and solar power, which now exceeds 1.456 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42.8% of the total installed capacity [4]. - The new rules clarify the principle of "who provides, who profits; who benefits, who bears," optimizing the pricing mechanism for auxiliary services and enhancing the participation of adjustable resources in system regulation [4][5]. - The average peak-shaving depth of coal power units has increased from 40% to 60% since 2021, with some units reaching 70%-80%, significantly improving grid flexibility [4]. Group 2: Market Mechanism Innovation - The new rules address the shortage of flexible resources and define various market products, including standby and ramping services, facilitating coordination across different time scales [8]. - The introduction of new trading products has allowed coal power to participate in system regulation, enhancing revenue structures from a reliance on power generation to diversified service income [5][6]. - The rules aim to break down regional barriers and unify provincial regulations, providing a standardized framework for the national auxiliary service market [8]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Integration - In 2024, the effective utilization rate of renewable energy in China exceeded 96%, aided by the introduction of new trading products that allow for better coordination among thermal, hydro, and storage power [9]. - The new rules have incorporated new entities such as storage companies and virtual power plants into the market, creating a collaborative adjustment framework among various energy sources [9]. - By the end of 2024, new storage capacity is expected to reach 78.3 million kilowatts, with independent storage accounting for 60% of the new installations, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth [9]. Group 4: Safety and Efficiency in Power Systems - The previous reliance on administrative directives for power system safety has shifted towards a market-based balance, enhancing resource allocation efficiency and stakeholder engagement [12]. - The rules serve as a foundational framework for a unified national electricity market, promoting cross-regional resource optimization and transitioning from local to global optimization [12][13]. - The transition from passive response to proactive balancing in the system is facilitated by the new market mechanisms, which enhance the safety and reliability of power supply [12][13].

《电力辅助服务市场基本规则》出台 全国统一电力市场落下"关键一子" 作为全国统一电力市场"1+N"规则体系的关键"一子"，《电力辅助服务市场基本规则》（以下简称《规 则》）日前出台，标志电力中长期、现货、辅助服务三大主要交易品种的规则顶层设计基本建立，也标 志着我国电力市场改革迈出系统性突破的重要一步。 《规则》不仅有利于推动各地电力辅助服务市场规范统一，强化与电力现货市场的衔接与协同，更可促 进能源资源优化配置，实现"全局最优"。 煤电转型：从"基荷主力"到"调节先锋"的角色重塑 长期以来，煤电作为我国电力系统的"压舱石"，承担着基荷供电重任。随着风电、太阳能发电合计装机 容量达14.56亿千瓦，规模首次超过火电，占到了全国发电装机容量的42.8%，推动电力系统从"以煤定 电"转向"以新带煤"，煤电"边发电边调峰"的双重压力凸显——此前因各地辅助服务市场规则不统一、 补偿机制不明确，煤电转型缺乏清晰"路线图"。 华北电力大学经济与管理学院副教授许传博指出，《规则》出台前，各地试行政策仍存在制度壁垒和规 则差异等问题。《规则》明确和规范了电力辅助服务市场的市场成员、市场设立、市场品种、交易组 织、费用传导、市 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Focus - The company is committed to optimizing and restructuring non-core businesses, including the divestment of TV set-top boxes and digital city projects, to focus on energy digitalization and energy internet strategies [2][3] - The strategic shift aims to transition from project-driven to AI-driven operations, enhancing efficiency and sustainability in energy management and electricity trading [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 667 million, remaining stable year-on-year, with a 10% increase when excluding non-core business impacts [3] - The gross profit margin reached 48%, indicating a significant improvement, while net profit was 3.37 million, reflecting a 118% year-on-year growth [3] Group 3: Energy Digitalization and Internet Development - The company is actively deploying AI and energy management solutions, with a focus on new power systems and marketization, expecting significant revenue and profit contributions in the second half of the year [3] - The "New Electric Path" platform has over 1.7 million charging devices and more than 20 million registered users, indicating substantial growth in user engagement and service coverage [4] Group 4: Future Growth and Market Opportunities - The company anticipates accelerated growth in electricity trading due to ongoing market reforms and the introduction of new policies aimed at enhancing renewable energy integration [4] - Plans to expand the charging network and user base, particularly targeting private car owners, are in place to capitalize on the growing demand for public charging services [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17 million yuan, up 34.58% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities in the electricity market reform, aiming to establish a second growth curve through innovative solutions in power trading and energy management [10][9]. - The company is accelerating its layout in the distributed incremental market, enhancing its traditional business foundation while expanding into new customer segments [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 17 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 15 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 104.81% [4][9]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 720 million yuan, 949 million yuan, and 1.261 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.0%, 31.8%, and 32.9% [8][12]. - The company’s net profit for the same period is projected to be 122 million yuan, 159 million yuan, and 210 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.0%, 31.1%, and 31.8% [8][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the renewable energy power forecasting sector, leveraging its core competencies to expand its business boundaries and achieve a comprehensive layout in energy management [10][9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in traditional businesses while also promoting innovative products in the energy sector, particularly in response to the evolving regulatory landscape [10][9].

山东明确机制电量电价方向，我国连续两个月从美国进口 LNG 数量为零 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 2 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoneng Rixin, reported a steady growth in its 2024 annual performance, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong market position in the renewable energy sector [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.50% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.59 million yuan, up 11.09% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 82.43 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.67% [1]. Product Line Performance - Revenue from renewable energy power forecasting products reached 309 million yuan, a growth of 15.55% [1]. - Revenue from intelligent control products for renewable grid connection was 124 million yuan, increasing by 28.01% [1]. - Revenue from the renewable energy management system was 52.49 million yuan, up 17.75% [1]. - Innovative product revenue was 30.81 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.93% [1]. - Revenue from intelligent operation systems for renewable power stations was 5.15 million yuan, increasing by 15.41% [1]. Regional Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its products and services into overseas markets, achieving significant milestones in various microgrid projects across countries like Iraq, Chad, Ethiopia, and Yemen [2]. - Overseas market revenue reached 8.90 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 162.38% [2]. Market Trends and Policy Impact - The introduction of the "Four Capabilities" management requirements for distributed photovoltaic power generation is expected to drive market demand for the company's forecasting and control services [2]. - The ongoing reforms in the electricity market in China are anticipated to enhance the demand for the company's electricity trading-related products [3]. - The company is exploring the integration of AI technologies in electricity trading, aiming to provide enhanced services and improve profitability for renewable energy clients [3]. Investment Outlook - Guoneng Rixin is positioned as a leader in the renewable energy power forecasting sector, with a strong demand for high-precision forecasting and control products [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 738 million yuan, 905 million yuan, and 1.217 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 136 million yuan, 183 million yuan, and 259 million yuan [4]. - The company maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating, with a target price of 68.00 yuan, reflecting a 50x PE ratio for 2025 [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext fell by 0.58% and 0.68% respectively [1] - Over 3,600 stocks declined in the market, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 1.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of 120.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as PEEK materials, electricity, pet economy, and banking showed strong gains, while sectors like newly listed stocks, software development, Huawei Ascend, and computing power faced declines [1] - The banking sector, particularly the three major state-owned banks, reached historical highs, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [1][2] Investment Trends - The recovery trend since April 7 has shown a pattern where market focus shifts towards domestic consumption and safe-haven assets during trade friction signals, while recovery occurs in export-related sectors when signals ease [5] - High-dividend assets like electricity, banking, insurance, and coal led the gains, while sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, wind power, and food processing remained active [6] Banking Sector Insights - Recent reports from A-share listed banks indicate a positive trend in Q1 2025, with many banks achieving growth in both revenue and net profit, alongside steady credit expansion [8] - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is likely to benefit from economic recovery, recommending a focus on large state-owned banks and quality city commercial banks [8] Future Market Outlook - Analysts express concerns about potential market adjustments ahead of the May Day holiday, noting that profit-taking behavior is common during this period [9] - Expectations for policy support in May are high, with potential new measures anticipated to stabilize the market and promote healthy development in the real estate sector [10] - The market is expected to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, primarily driven by long-term capital inflows [10][11]

中诚信国际肯定了华能国际电力股份有限公司(以下简称"华能国际"或"公司")电力资产优质、装机规模 和上网电量极大、清洁能源比例不断提高、盈利及获现水平持续向好及融资渠道畅通等方面的优势。同 时中诚信国际也关注到电力市场化改革及财务杠杆水平处于高位等因素对其经营和整体信用状况造成的 影响。 2025年4月7日，中诚信国际公布评级报告，华能国际（600011）电力股份有限公司2025年度第七期中期 票据获"AAA"评级。 资料显示，华能国际成立于1994年6月30日，是经原国家经济体制改革委员会体改生[1994]74号文《关 于设立华能国际电力股份有限公司的批复》及原国家对外贸易经济合作部[1994]外经贸资三函字第338 号文《关于设立华能国际电力股份有限公司的批复》批准，由华能国际电力开发公司(以下简称"华能开 发")与河北省建设投资公司、福建投资开发总公司、江苏省投资公司、辽宁能源（600758）总公司、大 连市建设投资公司、南通市建设投资公司以及汕头市电力开发公司共同作为发起人，以发起设立方式在 北京市注册成立的股份有限公司，并先后于1994年、1998年和2001年在纽约1、香港和上海三地上市。 公司在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility sector, with a recommendation to focus on specific companies within the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing electricity market reform in China, which aims to establish a more market-driven pricing mechanism for electricity [4][5]. - It highlights the potential for increased revenue in thermal power from non-electricity markets, as well as the benefits for hydropower from auxiliary service market developments [5][6]. - The report suggests that investment in the renewable energy sector is expected to become more rational, with an improved pricing mechanism for natural gas and water services [6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Market Reform - The report discusses the importance of the recent government opinions on enhancing the pricing governance mechanism, which includes promoting market-oriented pricing for various electricity sources [4]. - It notes that the reform is expected to accelerate, leading to a higher degree of market pricing for electricity commodities [4][5]. Revenue Potential - Thermal power is anticipated to gain higher returns from capacity and auxiliary service markets as the pricing for electricity, capacity, and auxiliary services becomes market-driven [5]. - Hydropower is expected to benefit from its superior attributes in various markets, including energy, capacity, and green electricity markets [5]. Renewable Energy and Pricing Policies - The report outlines the government's plans to enhance energy pricing policies to support green and low-carbon transitions, which may lead to increased demand for clean energy consumption [6]. - It also mentions that as the market for renewable energy becomes more mature, the risks associated with price fluctuations may increase, prompting a more rational investment approach [6]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the thermal power sector (e.g., Huadian International, Anhui Energy, Datang Power, Huaneng International), hydropower (e.g., Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower), and nuclear power (e.g., China National Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power) [3].