证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 经营表现稳健，中期分红落地 ——招商银行 2024 年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 招商银行 2024A 利润增速回正，资产质量平稳，2025 年中期分红初步落地。 ❑ 数据概览 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。2024 年末不良率 0.95%，环比 24Q3 末回升 1bp，拨备覆盖率 412%，环比 24Q3 末下降 20pc。 ❑ 息差好于预期 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。从驱动因素来看，除债市表现优异带动其他非 息增速回升外，核心超预期点在于息差拖累改善，支撑盈利增速改善。 招行 24Q4 单季净息差（日均口径）环比小幅下降 3bp 至 1.94%，息差韧性好于 预期。主要得益于负债成本显著改善。①资产端收益率环比下降 16bp至 3.33%， 主要是受 LPR 降息、存量按揭降息等行业共性因素冲击，贷款收益率环比下降 20bp 至 3.70%；②负债端成本率环比改善 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][11]. Core Views - The company's net profit growth has turned positive, with a net profit of 148.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The revenue for 2024 was 337.5 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, but the fourth quarter showed a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95%, unchanged from the beginning of the year. The credit cost has decreased slightly to 0.65%, down 9 basis points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has a strong customer base, with retail customers reaching 210 million, including 5.24 million high-net-worth clients, indicating a continuous improvement in customer quality [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 337.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 148.4 billion yuan. The revenue is expected to grow to 343.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 150.8 billion yuan [4][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is 15.1%, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 7.8x, 7.4x, and 6.9x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]. - The total assets of the company reached 12.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with loans totaling 6.89 trillion yuan and deposits of 9.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a steady growth in scale [1][2].

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月26日 招商银行（600036.SH）2024 年年报点评 优于大市 客群和风控护城河进一步彰显 归母净利润增速转正。2024 年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比下降 0.5%，归母净 利润 1484 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。其中四季度单季营收同比增长 7.5%，归母 净利润同比增长 7.6%。公司 ROAE 为 14.49%，仍处在高位。 四季度营收实现较好增长主要受益于净息差降幅收窄，以及其他非息收入的 高增。2024 年净利息收入同比下降 1.6%，其中四季度单季同比增长 3.0%， 主要受益于净息差降幅收窄。公司披露的 2024 年净息差 1.98%，同比收窄 17bps，较前三季度下降 1bp。其中四季度单季净息差为 1.94%，同比仅收窄 10bps。期末资产总额 12.15 万亿元，贷款总额 6.89 万亿元，存款总额 9.20 万亿元，较年初分别增长 10.2%、5.8%和 11.6%，规模扩张稳健。 2024 年手续费净收入同比下降 14.3%，大财富管理收入延续下降态势。不过 受益于债券收益率下行，2024 年度其他非息收入同比增长 34%，带来 2024 ...

Dividend Distribution - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is RMB 6.08 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 11.799 billion, which represents 28.32% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders and 26.51% of the total net profit [1] - The interim dividend for 2024 was RMB 2.46 per 10 shares, amounting to RMB 4.774 billion, while the proposed year-end dividend is RMB 3.62 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 7.025 billion [1] - The shareholder return plan for 2024-2026 indicates that cash distributions will range from 10% to 35% of the distributable profits for the year [1] Interest Margin Outlook - The net interest margin for 2024 is projected at 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to declining market interest rates and the reduction of high-risk retail assets [1] - For 2025, the net interest margin is expected to face downward pressure, but the decline rate is anticipated to slow down [1] Asset Quality Performance - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, unchanged from the previous year, with an NPL generation rate of 1.80%, down by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The provision coverage ratio is 250.71%, a decrease of 26.92 percentage points from the previous year [2] Retail Loan Situation - The personal loan balance at the end of 2024 is RMB 1.7672 trillion, a decrease of 10.6% from the previous year, with mortgage loans accounting for 62.8% of personal loans [3] - Strategies include optimizing loan structures, enhancing risk management, and improving customer engagement to support long-term business health [3] Corporate Loan Direction - New corporate loans in 2024 for key industries (infrastructure, automotive, public utilities, real estate) are projected at RMB 442.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [4] - New loans for emerging industries (new manufacturing, new energy, new lifestyle) are expected to reach RMB 216 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.9% [4] Wealth Management Performance - The number of wealth management clients reached 1.46 million, a growth of 5.7% year-on-year, with private banking clients increasing by 7.3% to 300,000 [5] - The assets under management (AUM) for private banking clients totaled RMB 1.9755 trillion, a 3.1% increase from the previous year [5] - Wealth management service fees amounted to RMB 4.4 billion, with a decline attributed to reduced fees in the insurance channel [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with an expectation of a relative increase of 15% or more compared to the market index over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company has announced a cash dividend of 6.08 CNY per 10 shares for the year 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 28.3%, with an annualized dividend yield of 5.1% based on the closing price on March 14 [2]. - Total assets grew by 3.3% year-on-year, while financial investments increased by 14.8%. However, loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans making up 47.6% of the loan structure, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2]. - The company is actively transforming its corporate and retail business, addressing retail business risks, and restructuring its asset-liability balance to achieve a balance between volume and price [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a net profit of 44.51 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 45.75 billion CNY for 2025 and 46.18 billion CNY for 2026, reflecting a decline in profit expectations for 2025-2026 due to business restructuring and weak overall demand [5][3]. - The net interest margin is reported at 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points year-on-year [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.06%, with the attention ratio and overdue ratio increasing to 1.93% and 1.52%, respectively [3]. - The retail business's non-performing loan ratio is at 1.39%, with variations in credit card, consumer loan, and business loan delinquency rates [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.44, 0.41, and 0.39, respectively, based on the closing price of 11.97 CNY on March 14 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is maintained as "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The bank continues to maintain a high dividend payout, distributing cash dividends of 6.08 yuan per 10 shares for the full year 2024, resulting in a dividend rate of approximately 28.3% [2]. - Total assets grew by 3.3% year-on-year, with financial investments increasing by 14.8%. However, loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year [2]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06%, unchanged from the previous year [3]. - The bank is actively transforming its corporate and retail businesses while managing retail risks and restructuring its asset-liability balance [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards due to business restructuring and weak overall demand, with projected net profits of 458 billion yuan, 462 billion yuan, and 491 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the bank's operating income is projected at 146,695 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 44,508 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% [5]. - The bank's net interest margin is reported at 1.87%, down 51 basis points year-on-year [2]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan generation rate is 1.8%, a decrease of 9 basis points year-on-year. The provision coverage ratio stands at 250.71% [3]. - Retail business risks are gradually being resolved, with a retail loan non-performing ratio of 1.39%, which has increased by 2 basis points since the beginning of the year [3]. Future Outlook - The bank's business structure is undergoing adjustments, with a focus on balancing volume and price. The projected price-to-book ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.44, 0.41, and 0.39, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Bank is undergoing a significant transformation in its retail banking strategy, shifting from high-risk, high-reward operations to a more balanced approach focused on medium risk and medium returns, which has resulted in substantial financial pain and challenges [1][2] Financial Performance - In the previous year, Ping An Bank's retail business generated an operating profit of 49.219 billion yuan, but faced credit and asset impairment losses of 48.729 billion yuan, leading to a net profit of only 289 million yuan, a 94.8% decrease year-on-year, representing just 0.6% of total profits [1] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.39%, a decrease of 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved asset quality [5] Retail Strategy and Adjustments - The bank's management has confirmed that it will continue to focus on retail banking, with a new strategy emphasizing risk control and a unified management approach, moving away from high-risk products [3][4] - The core of the retail reform is to develop medium-risk, medium-return products, particularly in the consumer and small business sectors, with ongoing internal testing and pilot programs [4][5] Management Changes - Key personnel changes have occurred, including the reassignment of the assistant president in charge of retail, reflecting a strategic shift in leadership to better align with the bank's new direction [4] Corporate Banking Performance - As of the end of 2024, personal loan balances decreased by 10.6% to 1.767168 trillion yuan, while corporate loan balances increased by 12.4% to 1.606935 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards corporate banking [7] - The bank aims to maintain strong corporate lending growth in 2025, focusing on high-quality enterprises and specific industries, with a significant portion of new loans directed towards infrastructure and technology sectors [8] Interest Margin Management - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, a decrease of 51 basis points from the previous year, with a focus on reducing funding costs and improving asset quality to stabilize margins [9][10] - The bank aims to maintain a net interest margin above 1.7%, which is higher than the industry average by 30-40 basis points, despite overall pressure on margins in the banking sector [10]

ab 13 March 2025 Global Research First Read China Banks US marketing feedback: Warmer sentiment towards China; Modest positioning increase LO still hesitant; Macro funds active; PB saw some fund flowing into China In our US marketing trip last week, we met c30 institutions, with c 40% being EM long- only funds, 40% EM-focused hedge funds, and the rest 10-20% macro funds. Though still underweight on China, US investors' sentiment appear warmer towards China market, particularly in AI/ tech/ Internet sectors. ...

执业证书编号：S0740523110002 Email：mazh@zts.com.cn 股份制银行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：马志豪 | 总股本(百万股) | 19,405.92 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 19,405.57 | | 市价(元) | 11.97 | | 市值(百万元) | 232,288.84 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 232,284.70 | 1、《详解平安银行 2024 中报：净利 润同比增+1.9%；调结构继续、中期 分红方案落地》2024-08-19 2、《详解平安银行 2024 年一季报： 净利润同比增 2.3%；调结构继续、 拨备释放利润增速企稳》2024-04-24 详解平安银行 2024 年报： 调结构显效，营收降幅收窄，资产质量夯实 平安银行（000001.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [5] Core Views - In 2024, Ping An Bank reported revenue of 146.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion yuan, down 4.19% year-on-year. As of December 31, 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio were 1.06% and 250.71%, respectively, remaining stable and decreasing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1][2][4] - The bank's dividend payout for 2024 was 6.08 yuan per 10 shares, with an annual dividend ratio of 27% [1] - The report highlights improvements in asset quality, with a decrease in personal loan NPL ratio and a reduction in NPL generation pressure year-on-year [4][11] Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit growth rates for 2024 were -10.93% and -4.19%, respectively, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous three quarters [2] - Net interest income for 2024 decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.87%, down 6 basis points from the previous quarter [2][3] - Non-interest income showed a significant increase of 68.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by investment income of 24.6 billion yuan, which grew by 53.3% [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio and attention ratio for Q4 2024 were 1.06% and 1.93%, respectively, with the provision coverage ratio at 250.7% [4] - The NPL generation rate for 2024 was 1.86%, a decrease of 6 basis points compared to 2023 [4] Asset and Liability Management - As of Q4 2024, total assets and loans were 5.8 trillion yuan and 3.4 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.26% and a slight decline of 0.98% [9] - The bank has significantly reduced high-risk loans and increased the proportion of mortgage loans, with high-risk loans decreasing and mortgage loans accounting for 62.8% of total loans [9][10] Business Development - Retail customer numbers reached 126 million, with assets under management (AUM) growing by 4.0% to 4.19 trillion yuan [11] - The bank's private banking client base increased by 7.3% to 96,800 clients, with private banking AUM growing by 3.1% to 1.98 trillion yuan [11]